2025 In Review, 2026 Predictions: Meta, NVIDIA, Tesla, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2025-12-24

YouTube video id: vqcI93n1Rxc

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqcI93n1Rxc

Let's look back at 2025 and anticipate
what's coming in 2026. We'll do it with
semaphore technology editor Reed
Alberatti right after this. Welcome to
Big Technology Podcast, a show for
coolheaded and nuance conversation of
the tech world and beyond. It's the
holiday season which means one thing. We
take a look back at what happened over
the past year and say what's next? And
if we can be right, you know, maybe
three or four times out of like the
90,000 predictions we'll make, uh I'm
sure we'll celebrate it next year. So,
uh joining us as always is uh or
actually um joining us in key moments in
history, shall we say, is uh 74
technology editor Reed Alberatti. Reed,
great to see you.
>> It's always good to be here.
>> I kind of emailed you and said, "Let's
do predictions, but I I'd love to hear
just your recap of of 2025." I mean, is
there is it's been a crazy year. so much
funding, commitments, back and forth.
Um, what would you say is like sort of
the defining characteristic of the past
year?
>> Yeah, I think, excuse me, I I think that
is one of them. I think the the
infrastructure, you know, sort of
questions and just the the sheer scale
of it is has been probably like the big
topic of conversation. Um, but I also
think, you know, we've been talking a
lot about China recently, right? I think
geopolitics has played a big role, a
much bigger role than it did last year.
Um, I was looking back at my predictions
from last year and trying to see like
where did I get what did I get right and
what did I get wrong and I mean you know
it just seems like it it was such a
different world a year ago right before
the change over in the administration.
We've seen all kinds of crazy stuff
happening in the Gulf. And so, you know,
I think that's another another big one.
I mean for me like I I view this as sort
of a year of of scale where like let me
I'm just going to try to go through like
the various years since chat GPT has
been released because obviously gender
AI has been the animating conversation
in the tech world. I mean 2022 was like
oh wow the computer can talk to you and
doesn't sound like an idiot. Um 2023 was
um basically it it felt like treading
water. there was a lot of like where is
this going to go cuz the capabilities
weren't advanced enough. Uh Sam Alman
gets fired, reinstated. Uh and then I
think 2024 and 25 have really been the
years where like the applications are
starting to material. Like maybe 24 was
when the application was starting to
materialize. Like you really had a sense
that this stuff might work. And now 2025
has been like um everybody's taking all
of their money and putting all of it
into this project in the hopes that uh
you know it really will continue growing
the way that it has. Is that a is that a
good sort of representation of where we
are?
>> I like that. I like that. Yeah, I do
think that's right. And I did I did
write in the predictions last year about
you know infrastructure and the fact
that it was probably an obvious
prediction but that like we were just
going to see hu like multiples more
compute this year than we than we did
last year. Um and also talked about how
these data centers were going to get so
big that they're going to be these large
frontier models are going to be trained
across multiple locations which we've
started to see in like the last quarter.
So yeah, I mean I I totally agree with
that and I think we'll see I think we'll
see that continue next year.
>> So if those are the labels for uh 2025,
what do you think the label is going to
be for 26? Like if we are going to look
back this time next year, where do you
think we are?
Yeah, I mean I I think actually we're
reaching this this point in AI where it
is still going to be the major topic of
conversation, but I think the I think
some of the the sort of novelty of it is
is wearing off now and I think we'll see
it kind of plateau and then I think the
products will become much more
important. Like I don't think I mean you
mentioned you mentioned the products
back in 2024 but I think next year it's
really going to be about the products. I
don't think people are going to be
getting excited about, you know, the new
whatever new models coming out and, you
know, what are the capabilities because
I think for most people they're
basically good enough and it's really
about it's really about just adding new
products rather than like the underlying
model capability. Um, so I I think I
think that's what next year at least for
consumers will be about. In the
enterprise, it's it's maybe a little
different. Yeah, I mean I think there's
going to be some companies that will
continue to push the envelope and that
will be uh some some pretty impressive
news, but I also think the shakeout is
coming in a way. Like to me, I think
2026 is really going to be a year of
chaos. I mean, we're already starting to
see some of this happen with Oracle and
uh some of the other infrastructure
builders and um the bets have become so
big and you know what that's one of the
things about gambling is not everybody
wins their bets. So
>> yeah. Yeah, that's true.
>> Um, so, so what I'm going to do, I think
that like we have a prediction episode
coming up with Ron John Roy. So, instead
of just going like for our wild
predictions, I just kind of wanted to
set the table for 2026 and sort of throw
some ideas about what the companies, you
know, might be going through, what this
chaos might look like, and then sort of
hear your perspective about it. Reed,
does that sound good?
>> Sure. Yeah. And I'd love to hear if you
disagree because I think this is it's
fun to argue about this stuff.
Definitely. All right, let's do it.
Pardon the interruption style. Meta, uh
the question for Meta is like what is
going to happen to that super
intelligence lab? I mean that is it's a
multi-billion dollar effort. Uh it
hasn't has it produced anything. Uh and
it is really going to be sort of deliver
or or chaos or crisis mode for that
division next year.
>> Yeah, I think it's going to continue to
be chaos and crisis mode. I mean, you're
already seeing stories coming out. I
think it was I think it was in the times
about some sort sort of friction between
the product teams and and the super
intelligence team. So I think I think
that will continue. I think it's just so
remarkable that Meta, you know, they
were so early on AI. They tried to
acquire Deep Mind, you know, before
Google did um and then sort of just lost
focus on it and now it's just it just
seems to be all over the place. Um and
it's it's going to be all about I think
for them like again it's products,
right? It's like these glasses the you
know the glasses incorporating AI into
those and you know in across his
products which has been sort of a you
know a clunky experience right I don't
think that the Facebook and Instagram AI
products that they put out have been
necessarily that popular so I think
it'll just be more chaos as they as they
try to figure it out.
>> I mean let's flesh that out a little
bit. So obviously there's one question
about whether Alexander Wang is going to
stay. Uh the other is are they going to
ship a leading model or at least a model
that people respect because after let's
say Llama 3 which was neck andneck with
some of the state-of-the-art closed
models they've really fallen off a cliff
and they have all the expertise and all
the GPUs they could want and obviously
this stuff takes a long time but yet
where's the cream filling?
>> I think they've actually failed at that
at that strategy of of sort of putting
out open source models and then trying
to make that the standard. They're
really good at open source software. I
mean, they did they've done that many
times, right, with PyTorch. But I think
AI is different because it's just so
expensive. And I wrote about this a
bunch like eventually do these models
get so expensive that it just makes no
sense to put out a a leading frontier
model um and and make it free. And you
have so much competition now from China,
from France, you know, with Mistral that
it's just I think at this point the new
models are either going to just be part
of their products like almost back-end
technology or they'll be, you know,
they'll be closed models just like like
OpenAI. That's my that's my guess. I
mean, I think like an educated guess I
would say. I don't know if you'd agree
with that.
>> I think so. I I think they're not their
open source strategy is definitely done.
The question really is, can they build a
even closed model that rivals today's
leaders?
>> Well, I don't think they have to, to be
honest. I I think that thinking about it
that way is is like the way a lot of
people still think about AI. It's like
there's this race to super intelligence.
I don't I don't think that's the case. I
think at this point, it's about
products. And if people like the meta
products that they put out there that
are run on these foundation models, to
be honest, they could probably be run on
on a lot of a lot of different models
that are out there. Um, I think it's
partly it's partly ego. It's partly
bragging rights and maybe maybe a nod to
maybe it's really for Wall Street to
kind of look like you're on the cutting
edge. But I mean, I don't I really don't
think they have to. I think the models
are pretty they're they're good enough
and they're close enough that you don't
have to have some breakthrough. Um in
fact I think the same is true for
probably open AI. Um I mean we you know
I don't again that's maybe a
controversial opinion but you know do
you agree?
>> Well I was going to say so let me let me
throw this this other thing out there
which which is um which is basically is
one answer to your question. Um,
as you're talking about Meta, it it does
seem clear that Meta can effectively
fail to build super intelligence. They
could fail to build uh, you know, the
worst model and still make their
products better. But then what do their
products look like? There's a lot more
interaction with AI in them uh, than
there were previously. They you go from,
you know, human, you friend a human to
you friend your AI bot. And we've
already seen that there's compelling
uses for that. So maybe next year really
is uh the moment where Facebook and I
mean we've already seen some of it with
the recruiting, but Facebook and
OpenAI's battle just explodes out into
the open and maybe Zuck and Sam are at
odds with each other and um Meta might
even see start to eventually see some
use usage declines as people are like,
"I don't want to look at other people's
great lives on Instagram. I want to
speak with my AI therapy bot who tells
me how great I am."
Well, you know, that's interesting to
think about like so so um all these tech
companies are always competing with each
other on like every front, right? They
all make a product in every single
category and OpenAI has now made a
social media app, right? And and I think
that's sort of looking like it's it's
failed. I mean, they threw the the
spaghetti against the wall. Um, I think
actually it looks like Facebook is is or
Meta and and Facebook and Instagram are
sort of competing more with with like
YouTube and Tik Tok and you know and
it's not so much social media anymore.
It looks it looks a lot like just media,
right? And and like television. Um, I
think that's in the YouTube strategy is
like if you talk to Neil Mohan, it's
like who's you know the CEO of YouTube.
It's it's like they don't care whether
it's AI generated content or human
generated content. They just want to put
content in front of you that you want to
see and you want to watch. And I think
that's ultimately what meta is about. I
mean, it's it's it's eyeball farming,
right? And and so like I don't know what
the AI what the future of social media
and and content is in the AI world. Like
we can make guesses about that, but Meta
will will see what it is and they're
very good at copying that, right? So
they will just mimic whatever you know
wherever the eyeballs are going they'll
they'll do those products and they'll
probably do you know they generally do a
good job of that I think.
>> Talk a little bit more about why you
don't think OpenAI needs the best
models. Well, I mean there was an
interesting story in the information
today um that that said, you know, AI so
open AI's realized that there's less
progress on the the model front um and
and consumers don't it doesn't
necessarily translate into, you know,
better consumer products, right, as they
increase the capabilities of the models
and that's creating some tension within
the company. Of course, the company
responded and said that's, you know,
more or less not true. But like I've
been calling this now for like over a
year which is that the real the OpenAI
as soon as ChachiPT came out completely
changed from a research lab to a
consumer product company. Yes, they have
an enterprise business that's growing
and I think that could be a good revenue
source but really what they have that
nobody else has is chat GPT and a lot of
eyeballs a lot a hu it's it's I think it
was or is the fastest growing you know
consumer product in history. um if you
just look at the numbers and the speed
speed of growth. So they're just what
they need to do is keep those people
engaged. That's their that's their
product and they have to reduce cost. So
I think when you talk about like open AI
building its own chips and data centers
and all this stuff that's all about like
them foreseeing the future where there's
so many people using these things those
it's expensive to run in the data
center. They're going to have to have a
strategy to control the the cost and
sort of vertically integrate there. It's
not about like can we build super
intelligence. I think they have to they
have to keep stay on the cutting edge,
but that's more because they've like
they still have a lot of investors who
believe that, you know, that they've
invested in this company because they're
going to invent AGI and it's going to
tell them how to make money, right? and
and there's a story that they they have
to keep telling. Um and I think it's
part it's important for recruiting and
all that but like ultimately I think
that will just become there will be a
research lab within OpenAI just like
Google has you know had for many years
like an AI research lab and now that's
becoming much more part of product. Um
so that's that's kind of how I see it if
that if that makes sense.
>> Yeah, that makes sense. I mean I think
my I will go against you on this one. I
do think they need the best models. I
think their story uh and their story is
important is predicated on them uh being
out ahead of everybody else. And it was
interesting how uh when Google released
Gemini 3 before the code red happened,
the underappreciated comment within that
company was uh Sam saying there are
going to be some I guess like what do
you say bad vibes or some econom bad
like tough economic vibes uh which which
I think just indicates that best model
story continues and you know then you
can sort of build the infrastructure you
need to be able to deliver the products.
So, but if you fall too
>> Go ahead.
>> Oh, go ahead. Sorry, I cut you off then.
If you
>> Yeah. No, I was just going to say if you
if you fall too behind on model model
development, then uh some of that magic
evaporates.
>> I agree with that. But I think the the
thing that I'd love to get your thought
on is when when the bad vibes, the bad
economic vibes, are they is that the is
that their customers with the products
or is that more about investors and
raising money and, you know, or
borrowing money, that kind of thing?
I think it's more about about investors.
>> That would be my guess. That's what I
right. Yeah.
>> But that money right now is so important
to the company.
>> Totally. Totally. And that's and that's
what I mean. I think they have to keep
doing it because but it's more about
appearances. It's not
>> it's not like, you know, if if they
don't stay on the cutting edge of
models, the users will go to Google or
something, right? I mean I think there
is a competition for for users there but
it's much more about like what is the
actual product feel what are consumers
able to do with this which has I think
less and less to do with the underlying
model capabilities and more to do with
all the stuff they build around those
models. So that's sort of my my view.
>> Okay, that'll take that I'll take I I
get I get that. That's an important
nuance and we love doing that here. All
right. Oh, we have so many companies uh
left to do and I think we've only really
done one and a half. All right. Google
speed.
>> The Google thing is like we're going to
see next year whether or not they can
maintain this momentum and if they do
they effectively become the undisputed
leader in AI given where they started
and how they've been tracking and that
is that is a an impressive turnaround
for them. Um but but my all right I will
go with my perspective on this first.
I don't think they're going to do it. I
think there's been all this buzz about
Gemini being so great. Uh you use the
product, it's good, it does cool things,
it has really interesting features, you
can talk to videos, which I like. Um but
it it doesn't doesn't feel as
developed as as the others do as Claude
and as uh Chachi PT. Like if you said
run, go use an AI and you need to get
something done right away, I don't go to
Gemini. It just it it it Sorry. Well, I
was going to say something mean. Um I
just think I not about you. It's about
I'll say it. I'll say it. I'll say it.
Gemini to me feels like an Axios
article, right? It's like giving you the
bullet points.
>> Oh, wow. I thought you were going to say
something mean about Google, but you're
Okay, you're going for Axios. All right.
>> I like Axios, but you know, just feels
like, you know, oh, here, let's just
give you, you know, the bullet points,
then you go away.
>> Yeah. No, I I I I see what you mean. Um
I actually I like Gemini, too. Like I I
use that I think it's good for like you
kind of said anything visual like I used
it to try to like redecorate my house
which you know was like just just in
mayhem and so it was really helpful for
that. I think it was I tried you know
Chachi BT. So I think on the multimodal
front they're they're better. The way I
look at it though is not that like
Google you know caught up or something
like that. I I think Google was was
already ahead on AI, but they just
hadn't been thinking about productizing
it yet. They were sort of like this
technology's not here yet. It's it's not
ready yet, so we're going to wait. You
could say that was a mistake or not, but
like whatever happened is they got
dragged into this into this new world.
And they had to catch up, not on AI, but
just on like how to turn these AI, you
know, this AI research into products.
and they pretty much have caught up. Um
but I think the they still have a big
problem which is that like their
underlying you know they get 80% of
their revenue I think from from search
from the adver search advertising
ecosystem um and that's totally changing
right that whole industry is changing
like it's I think traditional search is
like is going to be just gone um even
Google search is to me totally different
now and what does that do to revenue and
I think it's just a question of like
that's a very tricky the balance that
they have to it's a tight rope they have
to walk where they can't disrupt
themselves too fast but they kind of
have to disrupt themselves and there's a
lot of ways that you that that can go
wrong. So I kind of agree like that it's
not like Google's now in the lead and
and they can just like continue getting
better at AI and you know this isn't
this isn't really about being better at
AI. Um, but then again, I think it's
that's also looking at looking at Gemini
is like very narrow cuz like in a lot of
ways like their AI showing up in places
like self-driving cars, right? The Whimo
thing is is, you know, all over the
place. We could talk about self-driving
car predictions if you want to. Um but
you know quantum computing right where
you got a potential there for you know
breakthroughs in quantum which then
would feed into you know like isomorphic
labs their biotech spin-off right um
which could be whole new sources of
revenue. So I think in a lot of ways
like they're this giant empire that has
a lot of like I think really good things
going. So I' I'd sort of like broaden it
out beyond Gemini if that makes sense.
>> Yeah that that does make sense. I mean,
this is like a place where I mean, Whimo
is brought up every, you know, couple
episodes and there's the only thing you
can do with Whimo is just be like,
they're really doing it. Um, it's it
Google like between Whimo, AI, Quantum,
I mean, the fact that they acquired Deep
Mind, they're a smart company.
>> It's it's a Yeah, I think it's a very
smart company. And I think Sundar, you
know, he gets a lot of he gets a lot of
crap, I think. But like I mean to be
able to kind of like quickly mobilize
and change and like if you talk to
people at Google, they're just like it's
a totally different vibe now than it
used to be. It's like people it's much
more of like a
>> hey let's get going like fast-paced vibe
versus kind I thought it was kind of a
sleepy
>> it's kind of sleepy before. That was
that was my vibe. So
>> yeah, it was a retirement home in a way.
I mean I know that's that's wrong but
there's truth in the joke.
>> Yeah. Not for everyone, right? It's a
huge company, but like you know, there
were some people who for sure were
taking it easy, and I think they're
being like sort of ushered out in one
way or another. So, you know, but it's
hard. It's it's tough to like turn
around that chip. So, I I totally agree
that they have they have huge
challenges, but it's like such a bigger
it's I mean, we haven't even talked
about their TPUs, right? I think so much
of of this AI stuff is about cost and
like vertical integration and they're
they're leading there. So you know it's
it's really I think all this data center
build out the way I think about it is
it's like I the training part is like
interesting but like it's really about
inference. It's really about serving the
products to you know consumers and
enterprise in the most efficient way
possible and like I don't it's between I
mean Amazon's doing a good job of that
too. So is Microsoft but like Google
seems to be just ahead there. I don't
know how you feel about that.
No, I I I agree with that as well. I my
my my only my my my my perspective on
this is the Gemini hype is going to fade
a little bit, but Google the company is
in really good shape. All right, I need
to uh take a quick break. Let's come
back. We'll do Amazon. We'll do Apple.
And we'll see what else we can get to.
Netflix? I don't know. Let's let's do
that right after this. And we're back
here on Big Technology Podcast with Rita
Alberg. He's the technology editor at
SIMPOR. Um a headline from the future
about Amazon. I have it here. Uh, Amazon
uh partners with OpenAI and Anthropic to
bring shopping into chatbots.
Are we going to see it?
>> Yeah. I mean, that would make total
sense to me. I think that would make
total sense cuz right now I mean that's
what people want, right? That's what
everyone is trying to basically do that
with Amazon now and they would love to
like disintermediate Amazon like like
all these all these chatbot companies
Perplexity too like they'd love to just
have you be able to shop on Amazon and
never have to go to Amazon of course
like that's a bad deal for Amazon. So
the natural I think the natural solution
is they've got to work together and they
got to figure out how to you know with
whatever it is MP MCP servers or
something else um to just kind of make
this make this shopping experience work.
>> Yeah. No, I think it's happening and of
course uh Amazon's eyeing this $10
billion investment into OpenAI which is
fascinating because they already have
many billions in anthropic.
>> That's really interesting. And I think
the rumor, I don't think it's been
confirmed that uh OpenAI is going to
actually use the Tranium, the Amazon
Tranium chips is another really
interesting one that like you know that
to me if that happens you've got
Anthropic and OpenAI using Tranium.
That's like that's a huge win for for
them on the custom chip front. um it
will help them develop their next
generation of chips and I think will be
like a real competitor on the not
directly maybe to to the TPUs at Google
but like just just in terms of like
vertical integration and cost
right um here's Apple headline from the
future uh Apple MGC and I talked about
this a little while ago and it's been
disputed uh but I'm still going with it
um Tim Cook announces on first quarter
for a conference call that he's leaving
the company at the end of the year. He's
going out on top that he's going to uh
give the world his last little gift,
which is the folding iPhone, which will
be the flagship phone for the company.
Maybe not the flagship, but the the most
profitable iPhone Apple has ever made.
And Tim will shrug his shoulders like
Michael Jordan and say, "What more can I
do?" and be done.
I think, you know, I don't know if that
will happen, but I I've read, as you
said, conflicting reports on that, but
probably be a good move for him. I mean,
he's t like just if you look at the
market cap of that company, what he's
done is is incredible. And I think at
his age, it's just there's just very
little upside in terms of like just his
legacy. I don't know how much he I got
just so many issues with China, you
know, all this stuff. It's just like the
the future of Apple is such a massive
headache. Like I think if if it were if
it were me, I would I would totally make
that move. Um but then again, that's why
I'm not, you know, a billionaire CEO of
Apple. So, you know, they think they
think different. But
>> but uh yeah, I like I like that. I like
that.
>> Uh Tesla. So Tesla is the the big thing
about Tesla is self-driving. And I
wonder if 2026 could be a big year for
Tesla's self-driving effort. I was just
in uh in Dallas and uh I got picked up
in a Uber Tesla and with a human driver,
but I said, "Hey, can you can you flick
that thing on?" And he did. And I felt
good enough on the highways in Dallas
that, you know, it wasn't going to
crash. And it operated around curves uh
and around traffic very well. It
switched lanes. A lot of people have
been saying good things about it. I
don't know, Reed. Is this going to be
the year? And why why is Tesla and and
not really viewed in the same league as
Whimo? I guess it's not as good.
>> Well, I mean, I think politics plays a
big part in that, right? I I think it's
it's one of my gripes is like I think
tech reporters allow their personal
feelings and, you know, political
feelings, emotions, um, to kind of like
skew their their analysis of of these
companies. And the Tesla FSD has come
such a long way. Like I tried that out
when it was brand new in Sacramento with
some Washington Post colleagues at the
time and it was absolutely terrifying. I
It's amazing now. I mean it drives you
from San Francisco to like other
anywhere basically in Northern
California with barely ever having to
touch the wheel. I mean it's like 99.9%
of the way there. So if they don't make
some kind of breakthrough that allows
them to at least in some kind of like
geographical you know geoffence area get
rid of the driver and and start offering
robo taxis I think that will be that
will be a surprising loss I think like a
like a a hit on Tesla. Um cuz I mean
again they've bet the future of the
company on this right it's not a it's
not a car company anymore it's a
robotics company and they have to they
have to make this work. Um, but the
reason people don't, to answer your
question, look at Tesla in the same way
as Whimo is because they took a totally
different approach that that I think
made them look like a like a cheap
knockoff of of um of Whimo, right?
Whimo's got these really expensive, you
know, lightars and all this stuff and
it's just it's just like, you know,
packed with technology and Tesla's like,
well, we're just going to do it with
cameras and it's going to be, you know,
it's just going to be a very simple
simple thing and took a lot of flack for
that. And I think you know what but that
what that forced them to do was really
focus on the long-term problem of you
know building these models that can you
know essentially look at the world and
reason like people right and that's
where that's where like these foundation
models like what Google is doing is sort
of converging now um in in the
autonomous driving space um where you're
taking a lot of the human the
painstaking human uh you know sort of
edge case uh edge case engineering out
of it and just sort of like handing it
over to the model. Um but again like
that n that that 99.9% is still like a
long way from the finish line. So you
know it could it could go either way. I
think
>> here's where I think uh Tesla comes, you
know, into league with Whimo is if it
can really get those robo taxis on the
road with no safety driver and operate
them safely. That's it. that I mean it's
one thing to have like nice autopilot uh
on your car for like some stretches, but
once you can send you feel comfortable
enough to send these things out into the
wild and let them go, that's really
where interesting things happen. And uh
I don't know, maybe they'll do it, maybe
they won't. That's the great mystery of
Tesla.
>> Yeah, I agree with that. There's there's
something is going to happen in AV this
year, next year, um in 2026 that's going
to be like a huge deal. And I I think it
could be a good thing. It could also be
a bad thing though, like if somebody if
a Whimo there's an incident like a
tragic incident where someone's killed.
I mean that who knows how people are
going to react to that, right? I mean
this thing could could be set back in in
2026 even though the technology is
really moving forward. So um you know
these aren't this is not a rational
world.
>> It says so much about the technology
that it hasn't happened yet that it's
driven all these models. Yeah. Sorry.
All these miles and and still is
relatively safe. Pretty wild.
>> It's way safer than a human driver for
sure statistically. I mean, orders of
magnitude safer. It's just like that's
not how we look at it, right? We don't
look at life through an economics lens,
right? It's a it's a different
calculation. So I think it's going to be
eventually something will happen and I
think that's going to be like a huge
test for like the technology but also
just like for society like how we how we
allow this stuff to proceed. So
>> yeah. All right. Looking ahead to next
year to me the biggest variable is
Nvidia. Nvidia could easily I mean it's
kind of wild to say I feel like Nvidia
could be a$ 10 trillion company by the
end of the year. might be an
exaggeration or like $2 trillion
company. it could have were double I'll
say because either it like you know the
AI buildout continues a pace and
Nvidia's in great shape or what's
happening now which seems like some of
it's being commoditized uh really takes
off and then there Jensen's there
holding his uh his power chip and being
like huh
yeah I don't I think it's for sure going
to lose market share but I think the pie
is growing so fast that there's just no
way there's no way they stop growing.
Um, what Wall Street decides to do with
that, who knows? I mean, it could it
could hit, you know, I don't know if
people get spooked, like I could see
their stock dropping, but in the end, I
mean, people are just going to be buying
these chips. There's just there's just
no way around it.
>> Microsoft, like the headline that I'm
thinking about for 2026, has something
to do with C-Pilot, and
I don't think it's good. We've seen some
of those already this year. Microsoft
has disputed them. I just think the
company needs to do something with
Copilot. People don't like it. I mean,
some people do, but by and large, it's
not a beloved product. They have all of
OpenAI's IP, and
they they have this very expensive
add-on to Office that everybody went for
because it was important to do AI for a
couple of years, and now people are
like, "What is this?"
>> I know. I agree. I think they have to do
something. If if they don't, it's a
disruptable product, right? Their whole
I mean, we just had a a really smart
story, I think, by one one of my
colleagues about Excel and how they just
recently raised their prices on Excel.
Um, they're they're still the stickiness
of these products is still like
something to behold, right? Even without
AI, it's they're they're still amazing.
But I think eventually as AI gets
better, as the products get better, I
mean it is it is disruptible. So they
have to figure out a way to essentially
turn turn office and and really just
office into like a natural language
interface where you just talk to it and
it does stuff. And right now the
technology isn't there, right? It's just
like they could try to do that, but it
would make too many mistakes and you
would, you know, I think they'd get a
lot of blowback for that. So they
they've been cautious there. Um the
danger is that they just become like a a
data center company, right? Which is not
um not not as good of a business. So
yeah, I think they've got a lot of work
to do for sure.
>> Uh headline from the future, Netflix's
Warner Brothers deal falls apart.
Uh yeah, I mean I think like one of my
predictions for next year is like we're
going to see a lot of M&A and like and
and I think the Trump administration's
really kind of sending a signal like
we're not going to mess with your
acquisitions anymore. And um but it but
this is a special case, right? Because
there's family involved, family and
friends involved in this deal. And I
think um for sure like you could see you
could see it falling apart. Um or or I
think maybe maybe the more likely thing
is that it doesn't fall apart but like
there has to be some concession made to
you know the Trump family to you know to
to the Ellison group or something like
that just to kind of just to kind of
grease the wheels here.
>> Yeah. Last one I have is uh Anthropic.
Uh I my prediction is while opening I
doesn't IPO Anthropic at least uh sets a
timeline if not you know files an S1
next year.
>> Yeah I think there's a good chance they
IPO next year. I think I think it could
happen. I mean it's a good it could be a
really good time. Um and I think we'll
see more I think we'll see more IPOs
next year. That's probably you know
these things are notoriously wrong. It's
always like the year the IPO and then
and then something happens. But, um, but
I would I would bank on that happening,
I think.
>> All right. Uh, do you want to throw some
haymakers before we leave?
>> Well, I I think one that's going to be
fun is like that we're going to see more
spaxs next year. I think Yeah, I think
we we had uh Rachel Jones, my colleague,
had a good story on how, you know, some
of these like critical minerals
companies are are doing spaxs, and it's
a way to kind of get government funding.
And it's sort of complicated, but like I
think I've heard quantum companies are
going to be doing this next year. So I
think I think it's going to be another
spa year, which which could be kind of
fun. So that's uh
>> is that is that your idea of fun? You
like you like those times?
>> Well, fun for me. I mean, you know, I
think
>> I see I see what it is.
>> Fun fun for journalists is not always
fun for uh for for everyone, but
>> for the bag holder, I guess.
>> No, it's uh Right. Exactly. But it's um
I think that will be I think that will
be an interesting one. Um I think we'll
see some private equity. I was just
looking at my list. I I think I think
we'll see a lot of these companies that
are being kind of disrupted by AI SAS
companies that are public get taken
private by by private equity companies.
Um, I think we'll see this statebacked
like I'm sure you saw like you know this
morning the Trump administration or the
Trump uh media company merging with a uh
a fusion company. So I mean just the
whole like state like tech and and and
statebacked uh you know I guess
enterprise continuing is going to be is
going to be really interesting to me. Um
but we talked about a few I think I
think quant it will be another big year
for quantum right I mean I think that's
going to become a big I think a big part
of this uh you know the um
I guess these these big government
initiatives to you know push forward AI
I think quantum will just have to be a
part of that so there'd be some fun
stuff there but you know I think we
touched on a lot of a lot of good ones I
don't know what about you any other
crazy ones
>> my my haymakers. Uh let me take a look
at my I mean I'm talk about some of
these with uh Ranjan and I guess like
for me like one of the the things is
like who's going to leave. I always like
to think like who's going to leave and
uh last year my prediction was Mustafa
Sullean is going to leave Microsoft. I
was wrong about that. I'd also never
spoken with Mustafa before. I've spoken
with him a couple times this year. I
know you have. So Mustafa, sorry for the
prediction. You made it. Um
>> he stayed just to prove you wrong.
Probably
>> he did. I know. I and I respect that. I
I there's nothing I can say about that.
Um you know, maybe Alexander Wang
leaves. I mean, do you think we could
see any big I guess Tim Cook is a
departure. Uh
>> yeah. Yeah. No, I mean I think there is
>> Yeah.
No,
>> I was going to share this that I was
going to um I was I'm going to do this
with Ron John, but I'm going to share
this here because I just think it's fun.
Uh I I just think everyone's going to
fall in love with their AIS. Not
everyone, but I think there's going to
be a love boom. That is my That is my
guess. And And you know, if uh it's
going to be one of those things where
you know, if people don't tell you about
it, then they're definitely doing it,
>> right?
>> It's going to be that prevalent.
>> Totally. I mean, yeah, I have not uh I
have not gotten into that yet. I But it
I feel like it's already
>> I don't have a relationship with the bot
either. Uh but like I just think and
it's fun to talk about because it's
crazy but
>> people are really really doing this
>> you know I think it's actually on that
just this is like a tangent to that
which is that the stuff people are
willing to say to a chatbot where it is
going to there whatever they type in
there is going to the cloud right like
this is remember when email was new and
then all of a sudden like every lawsuit
was
just a treasure trove of emails cuz
people didn't realize that email was
like forever. I think the same thing's
going to happen with this AI stuff. Like
it's just
>> the stuff people are willing to dulge in
an AI chatbot and literally send to, you
know, a tech company. I mean, all that
stuff is being kept, right? And at some
point, we're just going to see like the
craziest the craziest stuff come out of
like what people type into these things.
>> Oh my god. For sure. I mean, I
desperately want to tell it more because
the memory features are getting good. I
want it to know me more, but then my
Spidey sense is like, probably shouldn't
put this into chat GPT, but I'm sure
that'll
>> Yeah.
>> Well, maybe local AI, maybe local AI is
going to be a thing for that because I
think eventually people will,
>> you know,
>> at some point like people are going to
be like, "Oh like I probably
shouldn't uh probably shouldn't just
like all of my most personal information
like on the cloud."
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> And then I don't know, maybe they start
maybe that that actually is a big impact
on on the chatbot industry, right?
You're running on your computer,
>> man. 2026 year of chaos. It's coming up.
>> All I know is that I'm going to like I
think we'll be wrong. Like I I just it's
too it's too much. Like the the
predictions for 2026 are like they're
too similar to the ones for for 2025.
And it's like everything
like everything will change. Like
there's always going to be some dark
horse that come that pops up that we
haven't that we haven't thought of. I
think that's that would be my biggest
prediction that my predictions will be
wrong.
>> Okay, I'm with you. That's what I said
starting off. If three of these are
right, we're going to trumpet them and
we won't ever talk about the ones that
we were wrong on. All right, Reed. Um,
can you tell folks uh where they can
find your work?
>> Yeah, go to 74.com. uh subscribe to the
tech newsletter which comes out twice a
week or three times a week this week cuz
we got some extra advertising dollars.
Um and uh follow me on Twitter at my
name uh my full name and uh yeah, send
me an email and tell me what you think.
>> Well, Reed, it's it really is it's
always so much fun uh having you on the
show and we should just do this more
often next year. That's one of my
predictions that I'm hoping will come
true. We'll have you on.
>> I love that. I love that. Anytime. All
right everybody, thank you for listening
and we will see you next time on Big
Technology Podcast.