Will Big Tech CEOs Win Their All-In Bet on Trump? With Saagar Enjeti

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2025-02-19

YouTube video id: rTpI11yBSD0

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTpI11yBSD0

let's check in on Silicon Valley's Trump
embrace the US China AI War Apple
products tiktock and plenty more with
breaking points host Sager and Jetty
that's coming up right after this
welcome to Big technology podcast a show
for cool Ed Nuance conversation of the
tech world and Beyond we are joined
today once again by Saga and Jetty he's
the co-host of breaking points which you
can find in your podcast app of choice
or on YouTube highly recommend it I've
been looking forward to this
conversation for a while we're going to
talk all about how the tech CEO Trump
bet is going to pay off or maybe it
won't and we'll also talk about us and
China fighting over Ai and then a bunch
of other issues that Sager and I have
been texting back and forth on including
how bad apple intelligence is so Sager
great to see you welcome to the show
good to see you man thanks for having me
it's good to be back great to have you
back all right let's start with the tech
CEOs and Trump we saw them all at the
inauguration sitting like peas in a pod
Zuckerberg Bezos Sundar Elon all
together and then I listened to your
uh reaction right afterwards on the
realignment podcast which is another
great show that I recommend and I was
sort of surprised to hear you talk about
how this might not be the wisest bet for
them because the vibe might shift over
time so just give us like your
perspective on where things stand with
them and where you see the risk yeah I
think uh just connecting those comments
what I was getting at is uh there's just
this sense of nakedness from all of this
which I personally find really gross uh
and I try not to hold myself up as two
partisan or anything like that but I
know a lot of people who are very
explicitly partisan nobody's buying this
okay like let's just all be very honest
like we can all understand that outside
of Elon the rest of them are doing this
purely for business purposes um and they
may be correct in the short term but
there's just something really dizzying
for the American consumer for the
shareholder for the employees for the
leadership of these companies to go like
record scratch every single time that
there is an election right so
2014 we're Libertarians 2016 we're pro
censorship or whatever you want to call
it and then Dei and we're leaning in
this entire time and then uh then we're
cancelling Trump and we're doing Libra
and we're doing oversight whatever the
[ __ ] do you remember that
oh when Zuckerberg had his like quasi
Supreme Court thing and then it was all
fake and then B and then but then and
then we're pushing against Biden but
only because we're kind of upset about
Lena Khan and then now we're name
checking the cfpb on Rogan and we're
admitting it's like what is happening
here you know it's this is just and I
just outlined eight years so I think
what I meant by it is uh there's a way
to just do this I think by just being
genuinely principled and uh ironically
Apple seems to be the one that I think
has handled this the best so Tim Cook uh
you know I'm not saying that his company
hasn't been woke or whatever um but the
thing is is that if you read uh that
book I forget exactly what it's called
it's after Steve the New York Times
author who did that book about uh apple
he did a fantastic job of laying out how
Tim Cook did a a masterful job of play
Kate his employees always always calling
up Donald Trump and giving credit to the
Republicans he is the ultimate like
bipartisan Warrior where he's got
credibility with the left but Alex I'm
sure you remember this immediately after
the tcja the tax cuts and jobs Act
passed Tim Cook was like Hey we're
repatriating all this cash to America
Trump was putting out tweets about Apple
Tim Cook very masterfully kept Apple
iPhones out of the China tariffs that
were happening he had a direct line to
Trump all throughout the the entire
Administration uh there wasn't anything
in particular that he's done since to
like piss off Maga and I think what it
gets to uh is that Tim Cook had and
apple in particular with their privacy
first model and even in some of their
intro Wars with Facebook uh what they
have shown is that they're willing to
pick fights based on their own like they
have a they have a framework through
which they view the world and they it
doesn't seem as dizzying and so in a
weird way I really respect the way that
Tim Cook is handled the entire Trump era
it doesn't seem as dizzying as the Mark
Zuckerberg or the Sundar Pai or even
Bezos I mean it's just cartoonish you
know in my opinion to see these people
flip so much on a dime yeah it's
definitely weird to watch especially as
a reporter covering these companies and
I can't imagine I remember being in the
audience while at one of Facebook's
developer conferences hearing Zuckerberg
talk about how we should build Bridges
not walls or something like that while
Trump was being elected and now I mean a
lot of people lot of people did have
shifts one way or the other over the
eight years but now just like being
Trump fan number one uh on Rogan but
that being said here's the Counterpoint
um it's working out for them it really
ising out for them throughout all this
flip-flopping you know they've maybe
figured out that politicians in power
just want to hear you say that you're
with them and they're the most valuable
companies in the world I think that's
absolutely true for Trump I think what
I'm just saying is that uh they're
losing genuine Democratic trust like I
mean one thing that Zuckerberg I I guess
I'll return to this do you remember
Obama I think it was 2012 State of the
Union and he's like we're the nation of
Facebook of Google and uh America was
like yeah we're the nation of Facebook
and Google there was a lot of trust man
people loved uh Facebook Google like the
Amazon I mean they were held up I
remember at one point Amazon had some
90% type approval rating by the American
Consumer the most beloved technology
brand in the entire country there was a
sense that they were not only our best
and their bright the Juggernaut of our
economy but in the interim by in the way
that I think that they've handled their
politics I don't dispute that they won't
get the tax whatever treatment that they
want under Donald Trump I'm just
thinking about I'm taking them seriously
all of them tell us we're Cent we're
going to be a century old company we're
going to the moon what we've done so far
is nothing you know listen to Zuckerberg
and take him seriously when he seriously
believes that the most important work
he's ever done is today on AI on meta
like the metaverse and all of that look
at the way in Google look at the capex
these guys havei they tens of billions
right it I mean what was it 75 billion
last quarter on AI spending that I just
read in the in the journal so like in in
their minds they're making a century
long bet for the future and I don't
think that a great company should
conduct itself this way and you know the
uh the way that I can compare it to is
wall street because Alex you live in New
York and you've covered the bankers and
then well Wall Street has been a
juggernaut Institution for over a
century and they have welldeveloped
norms and ways that they handle both
parties they have ambassadors yes
they're shuffling and Jamie Diamond
occasionally makes a fool out of himself
a little bit although I'm totally with
him on the zoom thing can I say that I
absolutely love this room yeah we played
it on a recent Friday podcast to basic
whole speech about Zoom it's amazing so
good I mean I said this this is what I
said I said like basically you know I
believe that workers should have
flexibility like if you need to stay
work from home stay with your sick kid
you should be able to do that without
having to fight your manager but what
Jamie said was actually like objectively
hilarious way he put I almost have an
age bias on this where I think everyone
under 30 should have to go into work and
I I maybe you AG did you ever go to the
BuzzFeed offices were you in person with
I did I for me actually so I also I
never got a journalism degree so for me
I freelanced and then first I was in
sales then I freelan and worked my way
into a staff job at newsrooms because I
needed to learn from colleagues and
editors in person and I think you're
right about there's there is and this is
something that diamond pointed out as
well there's something about young
people being in the office that if
you're not there you are losing out on a
on a big development moment for your
career without a doubt I I could not
agree more and that actually is the part
of his rant which spoke to me the most
um you know I'm 30 33 now so it's like
look you know I've made plenty of
friends and I you know we're more
established in our careers we can just
reach out to people and meet with them
but there is something to be said about
the office when you're 22 you don't know
anybody else you know you're College
friends that's it and you expand you
create a professional Network you learn
you all grow together it's really fun
you become a cohort almost like a mini
family and you you'll introduce people
through them so I do think that
something if you're 22 and you're
starting out my my number one advice for
you do not take a remote and especially
if you're trying to do a job like you
and I had The Newsroom is one of the
best place places in the world to grow
up like it's so fast-paced it's so fun
you absorb so much through osmosis you
learn a lot from your bosses you know by
definition it's like an open environment
which is very reactive it is uh it's
just one of the most exciting places to
be but returning to what I was saying is
if when I compare the technology CEOs
and the way that they're handling
everything it feels uh as if it's
unmowed from a sense of like who they
are and what they're trying to be
whereas when I compare them to the Wall
Street Bankers the Hedge funders and all
of that they have well oiled machines
networks Norms principles Etc in how
they deal with politics with principles
they're wired in as opposed to uh being
so reactive in the public I just don't
really believe that Jamie Diamond who's
been on the political scene since Barack
Obama now I'm a central figure in
American politics he would just never
have the heel turns that Mark Zuckerberg
has had just half the amount of time in
the last eight years so maybe I hope
this is coming across no it is it's
definitely coming across and you know as
we're talking about this I think the
real question that that comes to mind is
okay so it doesn't look like they're
suffering too much they are
flip-flopping a little bit and that is
hurting their image a little bit and
it's you know sort of maybe detracting
from their ability to be great American
companies I think you know the thing
that a lot of people are thinking now is
we've seen how intensely they've gone
toward Trump and that's maybe the real
question is and you mentioned this I
think in your reaction right after the
inauguration this is the United States
of America the political wins change you
know at one point Trump could never be
the president then Trump is the
president uh Trump won't lose and then
Trump loses because you know Co happens
and whatever people rejected his version
of of uh leadership January 6 happens
there's no way Trump will sniff the
White House again he is he's the
president now and then now it looks like
all right he's going to you know leave
and there'll be eight years of JD Vance
but we don't know that and things change
quickly and it's been interesting the
magnitude with which these leaders have
gone towards Trump the fact that baso
stepped in and blocked the kamla Harris
endorsement at the Washington Post that
Zuckerberg you know now is uh three
hours on Rogan talking about how how the
the Biden Administration yelled at him
and he's really upset suar doesn't say
anything but you know he shows up at the
inauguration there um and he like very
hesitantly uh did anything political
beforehand and talked about how
disappointed he was about the election
results after 2016 now they've all so
fully gone towards Trump I think this
was your point the political world's
winds might shift again and that could
leave them exposed yeah yeah that's what
I mean because not only do they not have
credibility with liberals and all of
that it's just that I don't believe you
anymore and there's something to that
which is really difficult you know for
for people like us who not only do
coverage like I'm just not going to
believe a word that they ever say it's
just and maybe I shouldn't have ever but
uh you know I've read a lot about these
folks I even gotten to meet some of them
which is kind of interesting and there's
just a sliminess that I'm now feeling at
this point uh where I'm like ah well you
know when you give a whole speech and
you bet your whole company behind lean
in like Zuckerberg I think I texted this
to you oh yeah um it's like dude like
you hired Cheryl Sandberg and then he
was talking about feminized corporate
culture I'm like you are lit like
outside of Cheryl you are more
responsible for that than any individual
in the United States there's there's
just a cognitive dissonance on that is
crazy and then I remember how much he
used to hold her up as the icon of the
company and backed all these this leanin
stuff which I mean look I've been
against all that crap from the beginning
but my point is is that it's just
surreal to watch it so then like I've
said in my political analysis The Winds
of political change in America happening
dizzyingly and part of the problem is
that we always have temporary Amnesia
and and so I give this example you know
it is February of 2025 when you and I
are recording this well let's take it
back to the last time a republican won
the popular vote and let's say it's
February of 2005 what are my narratives
politically America's a Christian
country get over it we will never see
gay marriage in this country abortion
will be over soon um we are
neoconservatives we're we're into nation
building Iraq will be a great Democratic
experiment the American people want to
be safe 2006 the Republicans get blown
out in the midterm elections it happens
in a span of one year Iraq goes south
Hurricane Katrina is a disaster
privatization of Social Security Now
Nancy Pelos is a speaker of the house
Barack Obama four years later wins a
state of Indiana and Ohio and North
Carolina all right so do we see how
quickly things in this country can
change things can go south and not even
in 12 months uh Joe Biden his presidency
fell off a cliff in October of 2021 that
was the first day that his uh approval
rating switched from positive to
negative so you know it feels like
quickly and you know in the grand scheme
it kind of is that's nine months like we
still have a long way to go to October
so that's part of what my problem is
with the tech guys is what am I going to
be hearing you say two years from now
like are we just going to yoyo in
between all of this and they claim that
they've learned their lesson but I just
don't believe it because of so many
different turns that they've made in the
last 10 years you know yeah they'll
shift again and also like Zuckerberg
Zuckerberg comments like I understand if
you want to take a you if you want a
break from you know the previous
political philosophy you had but to talk
about how your workplace is too
feminized it's just like what what are
you saying just just whatever alog
together that's kind of rude um let's
let's talk about the person who we think
has um real a genuine political feeling
here and that's Elon I'm going to run
this episode back to back with an
episode uh that we had with Chris Hayes
and he brought up the fact that musk and
I think a lot of folks on the left
believe this is flying too close to the
Sun Actually I don't even think it
matters uh politically like there's
clear it's clearly uh uh the case that
musk is taking a major risk here by
being so close to Trump a you know he
could potentially upset Trump and fill
out of favor and incur the Wrath on that
front we've seen that happen but before
B uh you just think about the fact that
again the political winds will shift
again the next Administration that comes
in that's not align with Trump may say
hey let's take a look at let's let's
Doge those SpaceX contracts or why are
we buying Teslas yeah if you're whoever
if you're Gavin Newsome Administration
you're done like it's it's I'm going to
use the exact executive order pres
president and all those contracts are
getting canceled this is not an
endorsement by the way I'm just saying
that's the world that we live in now
this is politics yeah so how do you
think this goes for Elon I I really
don't know I I'll be honest I didn't
even think we would ever get here I
already where we are is crazy uh I
really did not think that Trump would
ever allow someone like Elon to upstage
him I guess my only theory of it is that
Trump is most mesmerized and Amazed by
elon's ability to attract the same level
of detraction and media capture that he
does and that this is all a bunch of
stuff that Trump wants anyone ways so he
would rather Elon absorb that Elon I
think Trump also no I've covered Trump
for a long time I've observed him a lot
and I've you know and and the thing is
and even my own interactions with him I
feel like the thing he cares the most
about is attention and so Elon is a lot
like Trump in that he is a magnet of
attention a driver of conversation I
think Trump has really come to
appreciate elon's ability to shape
narratives and exactly
whichever direction that he wants but I
mean it's objectively true that he is
flying very close to the Sun and there's
a lot of risk for Elon politically
because you
know project 2025 is a good example
project 2025 if we're all being honest
basically had the blessing of the Trump
Administration and a lot of people are
going into Trump and uh it was the def
it was the plan let's okay again we can
the election's over we can all admit it
it's obviously was the plan all along
well uh when Trump realized that it was
unpopular he denounced it and then said
that nobody was ever going to work for
him again whoever worked for project so
he's you know very quickly would be
willing to come out and to denounce
anybody with attach to something that
becomes unpopular and that's another
thing where I would say to Elon and the
rest of the Doge crew and all of that is
listen guys like you know I you know
even if I were to respect some of the
work you guys are doing and all that you
just got to be careful the way way that
you're taking all the credit on this
because if it goes south 100% of it's
going to be on you it's a very non
Washington way of operating so yes he
absolutely setting himself up for a lot
of risk both in the future and not so I
guess all I can think of with Elon is I
think he just believes it it's pretty
clear like he took the red pill uh a not
a few years ago much later than most I
guess had just went fullon the way that
he does with everything you know if you
read some biographies of Elon uh this is
how he always half he's all in when he's
in he's in this is all that he does but
the risk is also you know having read
some of that is uh he does tend to have
falling outs with almost everybody who
he's involved with except for people
like Peter teal and a few others but
even they they bet on him but they don't
directly work with him in terms of the
people who actually directly work with
him there's not a very good track record
so I have no idea how it will go because
it's already gone much farther than uh
than I ever thought it would but I see
big risks for Elon I see huge
existential risks to his companies to uh
I mean to himself his reputation uh I
mean I don't know I mean Alex you tell
me because you've actually written about
these companies like if you're a
democratic
Administration um and you're the board
of Tesla like are you keeping Elon like
is it really is that even you can't I
mean we're talking about a You Know M
what's the market cap of Tesla and all
that the existential risk of him to the
to the stock at this point is just it
would be outrageous enormous like it
would literally be almost a company
killing event actually I'm going to I'm
going to revise I I might still keep him
I mean it is a story stock but it's it's
trading multiples many multiples of Ford
because Elon is there and it was you
know before the election it was running
up after the election basically almost
doubled right I mean just the increase
is crazy uh
but the thing is the story can reverse
right now all that upside becomes
liability but the question is where the
floor is and the floor could be much
lower than it was before the election
because you have a lot of liberal voters
who now have these bumper stickers on
their Teslas I bought it before I knew
he was an [ __ ] uh you have a lot of
Tesla dealerships in blue cities um and
okay you have the Cyber truck and that
is going to be a symbol of you know
being conservative and being pro Trump
about until Trump or if and when Trump
turns on Elon so it's it's very very big
risk I I totally agree I actually think
that's the biggest risk and also
considering how that's the literal vast
majority that's of his net worth so it's
like that's everything so I don't know I
mean I remember remember when Elon a few
years ago did that poll and he's like
should I keep doing Twitter or should I
go back to CEO of Tesla I was like bro
CEO of Tesla I was like I'm a Tesla
shareholder I'm looking out for myself
man yep well but then he he did hire a
CEO of Twitter but we all know that he's
still calling the shots right so um I
just keep laughing at the um scene that
happened where his his kid ex um I think
he told Trump to shut his mouth up and
then uh picked his nose and pushed it on
the Resolute desk it's like I just can't
imagine I could never imagine Trump
allowing that scene to play out without
repercussions with maybe anybody else
but Elon I agree and that's part of why
the relationship Dynamic is just odd uh
I don't know if I was working for Trump
I'd be furious by the way I mean if his
press secretary or somebody like this I
don't want to answer questions about
somebody else I want to answer questions
about people who report to me who are
controllable so I don't know but like I
said it's already gone so much farther
than I ever thought so I really have no
idea where this goes the narrative that
will come up if this goes longer is that
Trump is old and Elon is basically
controlling him and he's really the
President right which I think is a
terrible narrative for Trump um I mean
this is where the Liberals have a point
like well okay so the Liberals are
overstating it they're like nobody voted
for Elon I'm like well well I don't
think that's entirely true I as close as
they were yeah it's like it was pretty
close like he he was on the stage he was
at the election party he was doing the
spaces you know he was on Rogan making
his case the day before the El looking
directly into the camera so I don't
think it's true 100% nobody voted for
Elon I think a lot of people did
actually vote and are excited about Doge
but I mean nobody voted for him to have
unilateral control and that is where the
risk comes with Trump is if Elon I mean
I'm going back to Katrina right which
was and this always happens there's
going to there will be a natural
disaster I don't wish it we know that
every presidency there will be a
disaster so let's forward Alex this
horrible crash which happened here in
Washington let's forward 18 months um
even if as you and I know politically
even if the Doge firings had nothing to
do with it politically that's going to
be a real tough thing to crawl out of
and so you and I could see EX like if
anything the administration is lucky to
happen in the first week because it's
obviously had nothing to do with them
but let's say 18 months later I mean we
again using the Katrina example Bush was
crucified for bad FEMA response uh the
Biden people remember they were hit hard
for the North Carolina floods and their
lack of response so we I can I can just
I can see it on the horizon like let's
say there's a hurricane and currently
doge is going after Noah the National
Oceanic administ the guys who fly those
planes into hurricanes it's like man you
just just need one thing and if you
don't do it right even if it's not your
fault they'll hang it on you and they
will I mean especially with the media
now alligned against you uh with the
Democrats like I I would not want to be
in that position okay I have one more
question for you about Silicon Valley
and the Trump Administration and then
we're going to move on to AI this is a
question that I have that's been sitting
with me and it's like nice to have
somebody who knows Washington to field
it how influential have the all-in folks
been in this Administration and we also
know that Mark andreon spends a lot of
time talking about how involved he is um
so how involved is he actually um well
okay so no offense to the crew of Allin
but it's David and then the rest of them
so like David is obviously very
influential but you know this is a great
lesson because I know there are tech
people who are listening David has
always been political David produced
Thank You for Smoking remember David was
part of the Stanford review he's always
had an interest in Washington and in
politics for years for he was interested
and I've known I got to know David over
the chasa Boudin recall I started
interviewing him even I think before
Allin because he was starting to get
involved in these elections in San
Francisco and others so the thing is is
that David swims and knows the world of
politics very very expertly and uh by
the way I have zero Insight information
so I'm not speaking from any place of
this is just purely me analytically but
remember he really bet the house on
becoming somewhat of uh of uh like an
expert if he his detractors would say
he's an idiot whatever on Ukraine an
activist can we say well he he he at the
house becoming an activist on Ukraine
and I would say he is probably one of
the single most influential outside
voices on the Ukraine conflict in all of
the United States first because of his
influence on musk originally but then
also for his involvement the donation
the fundraiser for Donald Trump and now
as the AI cryptos are so when you put
all of that together he really used his
ability to both post his public profile
and his past political experience to
bring it together to be in my opinion
one of the most powerful people we've
ever seen in Washington who is a
representative of Silicon Valley Mark
andreon I also would say is actually
quite similar um Mark even though being
somebody who's been involved in tech for
his entire life literally since he
invented Netscape but in that period as
you know Alex he always has been
interested in politics as in especially
the last decade from the Trump
Administration he's constantly been
tweeting uh not only about politics but
about a lot of the books and theories
that he has about that and his
involvement more recently in Washington
predates the Trump Victory and really
was like laying the groundwork for his
involvement in his theories of
government so I definitely don't think
that either of those two narratives are
underplayed and look no offense again to
the Allin guys I got to meet meet them
uh during the inauguration and all of
that but I I just think David is far
more influential of course chamath and
the rest of those guys they went to the
inaugural ceremony and to the extent
that those guys have quote unquote an in
it's because they're they have the
popular podcast but I would compare them
more to like media influential as
opposed to genuinely politically
influential which David now is as the
literal AI cryptos are in one of the
most transitional Tech periods in like
modern history yep all right so on this
show we've been talking a lot about uh
deep seek from a techn from a technology
standpoint I'm actually interested to
hear what the rise of Chinese AI is
going to do to uh us China relations and
the attempts to regulate or the attempts
to bolster the United States AI industry
so why don't we do that when we come
back from the break right after this and
we're back here on big technology
podcast with Sager and jedy he's the
host of breaking points you can find it
on your podcast app of choice or on
YouTube so Sager I'm curious you know
you've been dissecting what deep seek
means for uh us Global AI policy um you
know obviously it sort of took a lot of
people off guard the fact that China who
for the Chinese companies for a long
time have not been able to build the
best models all of a sudden jump in they
have a model that re
about as well as the best that the US
can offer uh is open source and is
cheaper to run so what are the
geopolitical implications of that and
are we starting to already see it play
out oh absolutely and as you could
already see from uh David Sachs who were
just talking about he had initially had
a response there from the white house uh
this caused like Global Market reaction
already JD Vance is in France giving
speeches about AI I really do believe
this will be you know the in the way
that the Clinton presidency is largely
remembered for its transition to the
internet I think that in the long term
we may view the Trump years at the
second Administration as the AI
presidency in terms of the way that our
economy and our life and all of that
were transformed and in that I think
there's a lot going on here and um first
and foremost is an interesting Clash
within technology itself so this will be
a huge fight going forward around export
control so a lot of people were passing
around uh after the Deep seek Revelation
but that Alexander Wang clip where he
was like look they obviously have more
Nvidia h100s than they can admit because
they're going around export controls and
then I was not even aware of this how
20% or whatever of Nvidia revenue is in
Singapore I'm like yeah I'm sure
Singapore leads a lot of chips it's like
oh fascinating right it's obviously
leakage in terms of uh export control to
China it makes sense too why Nvidia was
pushing back so hard in the later days
of the Biden Administration against
tightened export control rules I hadn't
followed it fully at the time but
putting it all together I'm starting to
it's starting to click um how much of
Revenue that they alone are also kind of
relying on by a trans shipping chips But
but so at a broader level we have like a
couple of choices and interesting paths
like one would be okay we should just go
full open source we should the these
companies should stop stop individually
chasing this 75 billion per quarter on
AI we should focus on efficiency well
one of the Tells to me that deep seek
was not quote unquote as revolutionary
as people said is because the companies
are still spending the money and so what
they took away from that as I understand
by open Ai and others is that they saw
that their model was used by the Deep
seek hedge fund to train off of and so
actually what's happening is the net
effect of what happens whenever you have
kind of breakthrough technology if we
think about it like the atom bomb um
well what happens is that inevitably you
have scientists copying other scientists
and so that leads to closed circles
secrecy closed models National Security
concerns and overall like geopolitical
uh geopolitical uh implications of your
individual business decisions such that
it no longer really becomes about Nvidia
or meta stock it becomes about the
United States of America and I think
this will be a very difficult thing for
NVIDIA for meta for Google and all of
them to deal with because I think that
in their hearts at least in the past
they really were globalists and it makes
sense you know meta is they're user
based the vast majority of them are not
Americans but you're headquartered here
sorry and Mark suckerberg you're waving
your American flag around on your
surfboard or whatever so you've you've
planted your flag L quite literally how
far we've come from trying to name his
kid after she she yeah that's right yeah
after doing that as you and I know which
is Hil even more hilarious in retrospect
so putting all of that together with the
Deep seek thing you basically see it
laid out by JD Vance in his policy
speech where he's like we want America
to be the leader in AI we will not allow
you know Espionage on our companies so
we're going to see literal walls begin
to go up much tighter export control a a
Rec nition that these companies and this
technology is vital and of interest and
uh I I don't really think there's any
way out of it to be honest because you
know I was really thinking about it and
it's like well what is the alternative
because we could try to have some path
of not going down that but it's very
clear that the Chinese um especially in
the case of deep seek I mean this idea
that it's $6 million or whatever to run
is ludicrous it obviously cost over a
billion dollars uh to train the model
before it eventually got to the point
where it could run off of that 6 million
it's clearly subsidized and at least
pushed and allowed um by the Chinese
government who themselves I'm not sure
you've seen it Alex but the Chinese Tech
SCS are tech stocks are roaring um on
the Hong Kong Stock Exchange right now
uh as a result of the deep seek thing so
the government has its own interest and
control and all that behind the scenes
for them and the Chinese are never going
to move away from their own firewall
model so in a sense you know naturally
the United United States especially to
preserve so much of the Enterprise Value
and the genu technological breakthrough
doesn't really have a choice but to
behave quite similarly and I just think
that's an inevitable kind of THD stap of
any great superpower competition on any
technological basis I want to ask you
the a similar question that I asked
Alexander Wing when he was here which is
um why is it such a strategic liability
of China takes the lead on AI models
like just take deep seek for example yes
they definitely trained with a lot more
money than they said they did to build
this R1 model however the R1 model is
like undeniably cheaper to run and so
now you have us startups using that
model to build products they probably
couldn't build in the past so talk a
little bit about why it's so
strategically important for the us to
have the lead and not not China there's
a couple different ways I mean uh first
and foremost is just um well actually
let me give you a really meta way that
he's probably never going to admit and
this is the truth um America has decided
that our retirement plan is number go up
and our numbers need to go up that
number can't go up if we're number two
and if we're subject uh in the 20% of
our GDP which is technology the fastest
growing sector uh the Magnificent 7
comprises what percentage of the S&P 500
like 20 to 25% depending on the day or
30% sometimes let's let's look at this
realistically like at a basic level we
don't have a choice like we have all
chosen that America retires because the
number goes up and the number is not
going to go up if we're not the leaders
in the technology because it means that
we won't be able to unlock the
Enterprise Value and have all you know
all of the benefits of network
capitalism and AI but at a more like
basic level the United States especially
with respect to technology with uh it's
with research and everything the
implicit you know deal that we've all
made is that like I said we're not going
to have government retirement or
government healthare or any of that but
in exchange we will be the leaders of
the global economy of the world um and
you know rule the rules-based
international order to the benefit of
the American Consumer and so at a really
like high level strategic wise it's the
same reason why Sputnik simply could not
be allowed to stand it's because even if
the terms and the way that we're
fighting seem ridiculous the notion of
space Supremacy by our adversary or
technological Supremacy beating us in
that category just means their ability
to compel our Behavior so at a very like
meta level in terms of why it's
strategically important it really is
gets back to that th's trap idea of we
don't when your adversary is to choose
development down a closed path which
would allow technological dominance over
you you either have a choice to like
reach your hand out shake hands have
some mutual agreement where that's
simply not going to happen and then have
the trust the enforceability in such a
contract that you can ensure things stay
smooth that's not going to happen
unfortunately or you have the chance to
respond and so uh yeah I just I don't
even think of it as AI I think about it
as the way I would any breakthrough
technology I would give you the exact
same answer yeah and there's been some
talk that like okay well AI is both a
business uh but it's also a weapon and I
am curious like you know JD Vance
recently said the fears about AI are
overblown so where do you stand on that
question because I Ian think about it
every day so every day I either am an
alarmist or I just think it's all
ridiculous so you and I want how you go
back and forth and same thing happens to
me where I'm like this the chat GPT
can't tie its shoes but on the other
hand you're like oh no this can control
computers and build deep research
reports like oh God what's going to
happen next that's how I feel so I use
claw I'm a claw guy I can't really tell
why I just like the interface um for
data an we talk about it a lot it's
pretty nice to talk to like it actually
feels less botlike yeah I totally agree
and you know for data data analysis look
I'm not the typical person I'm not a
coder any of this stuff you know what I
really use it for personal finance I go
how much money have I spent on groceries
this year and I'll be like here this and
this is your break that's pretty cool
use case I haven't heard that before so
you like upload your like bank
statements and talk to so I have a
budget app which has all my transactions
and then I downloaded my trans action
for the last years uploaded it to Claude
And I go so how much money do I spend on
milk how much money do I spend on eggs
um what's my average burn rate on travel
so and then also you can uh you can
calculate to the literal dollar not only
your spending but then you're not your
discretionary spending your
non-discretionary spending and then if
you're trying to budget and project like
let's say Investments I use it for
investment analysis all the time so I'll
be like if I dollar cost average $200 a
month into x stock based on historical
Returns what is my expected over a
10year period And it it's spits out
charge it's fantastic should I have it
do my taxes like I'm thinking like I can
just upload all my books and see what I
do I know the problem is legally Legally
you're it's you're getting dicey right
so like when I'm doing some [ __ ]
stock analysis like the stakes are not
that high but with doing your taxes is I
mean I would obviously CES yeah I mean
maybe you should try it tell me tell me
what you think I'll keep you posted it's
cas thinking about AI um do you have you
ever used Tesla full self-driving I
haven't driven with it but I've been in
the car when someone put it on okay so
uh I have a Tesla and I have full
self-driving so that's where I don't buy
the AI hype I have been hearing for
years oh this car is going to drive
itself no it's not Tesla can barely turn
left bro and even when it does even when
it does turn left it turns left like a
right angle you know or uh just the
other day you'll love this example cuz
this just shows how Dynamic and
difficult it is to try and accomplish
this problem it snowed and the snow got
caught in the lights the red light like
in the the cup that holds the lights so
the Tesla could not distinguish whether
it was red or whether it was green so my
eye could I could tell like oh right up
there there's a little bit of red light
green light but there's so many
different things or there's areas where
I live where you can park the in this
Lane sometimes but not others and so the
Tesla if it sees it open will want to
get into that lane even though I know
you know oh it's 400 p.m. I can't get
there my point is is that I've even with
all of the hype and even with let's be
real the best self-driving technology
available in the US it's not that useful
unless you're on the highway is it that
much better than Toyota assist or than
Honda's assisted uh assisted autopilot
yeah it's good it can change lanes and
stuff like that but I've been in a BMW
that can change its own Lanes so my
point is is that even with Tesla which
has thrown billions at this problem
which is the world's leader and all of
that I've owned this thing for a couple
of years and it's definitely gotten
better but it's not that great and
that's as in I'm not I'm not taking my
hands off the wheel anytime soon um
especially whenever you know if you have
your loved ones or others who are have
you been in a wayo before I haven't been
in a still want to do that um I've been
around them in Austin and but I think
the use case is a little bit different U
just in terms of what they're allowed to
do Etc in terms of the definitely
there's predescribed uh routes that they
can take exactly and so that's what I
mean in terms of they can do it because
of the predescribed routes and their
select area but I'm talking about I've
driven my car all across the entire
country and there's just so many cases
where I go ah the driving it just it
can't pick up the Nuance of this whole
situation and so that's kind of how I
feel about AI on the one hand you know
for years everyone keeps telling me
we're going to conquer driving we're
going to conquer driving I'm like no
you're not it's just literally not going
to happen anytime soon um but the other
you know I get to I see this the you
know the AI SA people put up this report
about they develop personalities and you
know they at a certain point uh what
so-called AGI may have already been
reached and the ability to to turn it
off May soon be soon be going past or
you know the nightmare scenarios of like
once they have developed their own value
systems uh that it's very difficult to
program them off or even scarier is
incorporating human value systems that
we can't even all agree on into these
things so I think that the existential
questions are important but yeah I
oscillate between being an alarmist and
also just being somebody who's like eh
is it really that different or is it
just a better Excel you know my black
pill case for AI is congratulations
you're all going to have ai assisted
Microsoft teams while you continue your
continue your consulting jobs you know
um I'm I'm sure it'll do better data
analysis and I'm sure it'll increase
efficiency I'm sure it'll be a great
tool but I'm still a bit skeptical in
terms of its ability to change
everything about my daily life on your
Show recently you had a very interesting
uh analysis about how they started to
develop their own value systems that AI
agents would um s AI models as they got
smarter would develop their own value
system I mean that's this stuff like is
crazy to me we also we talk a lot about
on the show about how AIS have started
to deceive their evaluators so if you're
like trying to evaluate whether
something's Ying to its value system and
it's not the AI will just sort of try to
fake it so you don't reprogram it I mean
this stuff is Right The Cutting Edge of
this stuff is
amazing yeah I don't know I I I really
am torn I like to listen to the
technologists I just keep my eye on a I
I think what I do with AI is the same
way I do about any subject which I know
is controversial is I just read the
whole gamut and I try and experience a
tech for myself and then kind of see
where I land right now I'm not yet a
complete Doomer I'm not a it's going to
kill kill us all I still think that the
dynamism and the experience of humanity
and of Our Lives is still just way more
complicated than it it seems that it's
much more complicated than people might
be led to believe that's why I always
use that car example of who could ever
program in that it was a snowy day and
that the red light gets covered or who
could ever program in uh you know these
time limits or you know even even
sometimes pedestrians and where they
cross illegally and I know that there's
always some idiot who's going to try
here around 7 a.m. but the car is not
going to know that or even in terms of
break speed I found that it breaks very
hard uh even when it doesn't you got to
try the wayo and we got to have you back
on because the breaking Theo is is
pretty unbelievable where is right now
Francis in San Francisco it's in Phoenix
coming to La I think it's maybe four
cities but I'm sure it's just going to
be all over the country pretty soon it's
expanding wildly fast so look my number
one argument against the fact that AI or
against this idea that AI might kill us
is Apple intelligence I mean use that
stuff and you're just like we're good
you um basically described the problem
with apple intelligence messages have
yet to experience a single useful AI
summarized iMessage I mean it's the most
visible feature in apple intelligence
and it sucks um give me your your
unvarnished opinion about Apple
intelligence I I'm I am the biggest
apple Fanboy you'll ever meet as you
know I bought division Pro on day one
okay day Vision Pro right after this
yeah yeah okay all right division pro
day one holder iPhone 16 whatever what
iteration are we on 16 that's whatever I
have 16 day one holder day one for Apple
intelligence I have never been more
disappointed in the Pro you know I
really should I I got to credit Maris
brownley because he's totally right I'm
an idiot I'm the sucker don't ever buy a
product with the promise a future
product and that's what they did with
this phone is they promised us all of
these cool features with like you said
text message summary email um oh my God
my wife has we both have the same phone
and she actually uses the Apple Mail app
and she's showing me Apple's AI ranking
of her mail it's terrible she had to
turn it off right and so that's the
thing I don't understand I don't
understand with apple is I know you can
do it and you're the you know you've got
this market cap and you've got all this
money and you you're you're the one
telling you're doing it the apple way
you're like we're going to look at it
and then we're going to refine it the
way that we always do with breakthrough
technology and we're going to make it
the easiest possible thing and then
we're going to roll it out to all of our
customers you guys are going to love it
and that's what they usually do but
Apple intelligence has been a complete
bust I'm idiot for buying this phone um
it's really it's not different at all AI
Apple AI summaries for my text messages
are garbage literally less than useful I
think the only thing it does is burn
more of my battery the use cases I've
seen on mail awful um do you use the
action button do you have the new one I
have the 15 but I don't really use the
action button at all never use the
action button not once I don't think
I've used it a single time so many
things about this phone where it's such
a bust I I just don't understand how
this happened look I've been doing this
for a very long time and I can tell you
I've never seen an instance where you
have such a high stakes presentation
from such a prominent company that UND
delivers to this underd delivers to this
magnitude astonishing how bad it's 100%
agree it's horrible it's horrible the
photos thing that's what everybody's
saying is cool guys look this is where
even with the Apple Fanboy Galaxy's had
that for fcking five years years like ai
ai editing and and enhancement on your
photos the Galaxy's had that for years
like I don't know I'm I'm very very
disappointed um in all of the Apple
intelligence stuff especially because
like you and I we use our iMessage and
stuff for work and I literally just want
to see the message because I know that
the AI summary is so untrustworthy so
it's actually making my life more
difficult so I have to like unlock my
phone and be like okay what did the
messages actually say as opposed to the
dumbass Apple intellig I mean it's been
almost a year now right I mean I just I
I I can't even I I don't know what
happened with this entire thing I
thought about turning it off completely
just being like I don't want these
summaries and they're always they're so
dispassionate which is so funny where
it's like someone tells you they can't
make an event and it's just like you
know friend says no or something friend
says no and then oh the suggested
comments too are always so stupid it's
like oh that's tough or I know it's like
we can't let the AI take over and there
have been some even better uh examples
of like on Twitter of people like
sharing someone's like sent them like a
breakup text and bit it's like just
wants to be friends can you imagine
being broken up that way my God yeah
exactly I just want to experience it in
its own words so yeah I'm very
disappointed don't they have some new
announcement what's that going to be is
that the new Mac yeah when this airs
would probably be live but everybody
thinks it's the SE the iPhone se but it
you don't know because Tim Cook says
it's going to be a new member of our
family of products and it's like I'm
pretty sure it's just going to be the
same member of your family products with
like you know a new chip in it which
great but yeah they don't have much to
announce anymore yeah they just really
don't I don't know I'm really bummed um
with the way that it's been like I
expected B I really thought Vision Pro
was the start of something yeah so I
want to he before we go let's hear your
your Vision Pro take
um is it a paper weight not not for me
because I always defended it this way I
love to watch movies on it and um I love
in particular Apple TV shows the way
that it's hard to explain someone who's
never used to Vision Pro but Vision Pro
on Apple TV has the function where you
can put yourself um in a movie theater
and so it literally when I'm on my couch
I feel like I'm watching Severance or
masters of the air or any of these shows
like I am in the movies it's incredible
especially have your airpods on but
unfortunately as you and I know Apple TV
outside of severance and a few other
things not great content and so I
wouldn't say I don't use it as much as I
used to in particular also the software
has not been updated properly in the way
that I thought it would be so it's
getting a little bit laggy so there's a
couple of things which I'm not too happy
about it but I will tell you this every
once in a while uh whenever I do need to
do the whenever I have a lot of research
to do so I love to use that Ultra wide
function where I have my laptop and my
uh laptop in my lap and I can bring the
desktop up and have like 10 different
things that are all happening in front
of me that is genuinely cool another
massive use case for the app Vision Pro
is flying airports when you're mobile
it's amazing
so oh yeah many times many many times
you're definitely going to get comments
I'll say that but I mean people are
curious well um the first time that I
ever used it it was kind of awkward
because I I was in cinema mode and the
flight attendant was kind of talk to me
I literally couldn't see her right I I
couldn't see her I couldn't hear her
excuse me ma'am I'm in a VI movie
theater can you she tried to put a drink
in my hand cuz she saw me going like
this and I was like I was like what are
you doing I was like I was like what I
was like oh my God I'm so sorry I was
watch she was like Oh I thought you
wanted to drink and
um she's like I saw your virtual eyes on
the screen and thought you were there
especially especially if you're in
economy class uh like me because you
don't have that much room so you
actually end up kind of like a T-Rex in
terms of moving your like moving your
fingers around just being like like
moving stuff like this and people are
always very curious they they're always
so curious about it but I'm more of a US
it in the airport guy uh for lap for my
laptop like actually doing stuff uh
while I'm on it so I like it I it's a
bit bulky that's my only thing that I'm
upset about but I I see why people are
uh disappointed because I again the
idiot thought that it would get better
over time and they haven't updated this
thing at all guys like for anybody out
there I can't even tell you how much
they've just abandoned this thing
completely so if you don't like any of
the day one stuff on it do not get it
because they haven't they've barely done
any support or development for this
thing new nor new apps no new
breakthroughs it's genuinely
disappointing what they I'm stunn they
haven't updated it because that was
always the promise they had this device
it was going to get better and I guess
they haven't let developers in the way
that you would expect also developers
have said no to them because yeah they
just said they so used to being raked
over the coals by the 30% fee Netflix
for instance is like oh you want me to
develop for you that's a funny idea I'm
not doing that I will say you can just
use Netflix and Safari on Vision Pro I
do it all the time yeah it's actually
super easy
it's everyone made a big stin about the
Netflix thing honestly it didn't do
anything um you're getting me excited
though because you know what house of
the Dragons season 3 is about to come
out and when I bought the Vision Pro I
season 2 was coming out man when you're
watching fantasy shows on the Vision Pro
uh oh my God Apple also did a few
remasterings of movies so you know that
Tom Cruz movie Edge of Tomorrow they did
that for Vision Pro 3D Plus in Apple TV
so it's 3D while you're in the cinema
thing dude that was that is one of the
like one of the coolest cinematic
experiences I've ever had and I was at
home so my dream for the future is a
shared VR so that like let's say you and
I were hanging out and we wanted to
watch a movie that we'd both put the
goggles on but we could have a shared
space and we could blow it up and then
we could like kind of experience it
together while also being able to like
maybe see each other and be like oh my
god dude that was crazy because the
problem with the entire Vision Pro right
now
is that it's just singular experience
it's only happening when I'm by myself
TV is actually way more social than
people think yeah yeah for me like I I
would buy if I could sit at like the 50
yard line 15 rows up and watch NFL games
you that would be an easy buy I've
watched NFL in like 3D and it's amazing
if I could do that on the Vision Pro I
would pay for it oh yeah but I I don't
watch baseball but some of my friends or
no no no basketball it has a basket I
think NBA had some Vision Pro thing dude
NBA on Vision Pro is apparently
incredible so I'd say I use it like once
a week uh or so especially right now
sance is out I love to watch Severance
on it uh like now I'm getting hyped for
House of the Dragon because HBO has a
they have an app specifically for the
Vision Pro and their the max app on
Vision Pro is insane it's so good yeah
it's oh my God man we started this
Vision pro segment really tucking down
to it and now I feel like running out to
the Apple Store and right on it's not
worth the money it's just not I mean 35
too much right the promise of it was not
what has materialized I have found a way
to still use it but actually a lot of my
friends who have it they don't even use
it anymore it's literally a paper weight
like you said I just love TV I like to
watch movies so I've been able to
appropriate it but that's a shitload of
money for an entertainment device right
you could just you could buy a pretty
nice TV for whatever it costs yes
definitely all right folks the show is
break points you can find it on YouTube
or your app of choice Sager always great
to see you thanks for coming by good to
see you man thank you for having me all
right everybody thank you for listening
and we'll see you next time on big
technology podcast