Bradley Tusk on OpenAI Governance, 2024 Politics, Obvious In Hindsight & More

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2023-11-22

YouTube video id: oJpCRsWpB1Y

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJpCRsWpB1Y

hey YouTube how's it going we're going
to continue with our daily coverage of
open AI the big shakeup and then we'll
also cover some new topics we have
exactly the right guest for you today
Bradley Tusk is here he's the founder of
Tusk Ventures and he's the author of the
new book obvious and hindsight it's a
novel he writing about a novel about uh
the tech world and regulation it almost
feels like um can you make the Fiction
more exciting than the non-fiction right
now we'll find out welcome to show
Bradley yeah art and life kind of keep
imitating each other in really weird
ways so yeah they're converging quite
nice great so congrat first of all
congrats on writing the book we'll talk
about it more sure um let's talk about
some of the real life drama that's going
on right now you know right before we
started this conversation I thought is
there a better person to have discuss
open AI than someone who's a VC who also
works on regulation and tricky gun
governance issues and I decided no that
you are the perfect person to discuss
this glad to be that tell me what you
think about the makeup of the open AI
board and where do you think this is
headed yeah I mean look it it in
retrospect in in in hindsight it was
sort of destined to fail right um in the
sense that there's got to be alignment
between board members with investors
shareholders and employees and when the
board members think their job is one
thing and everyone else thinks their job
is something else clearly there there's
going to be friction and to the point
here there was enough friction obviously
the board took the extraordinary step of
firing Sam Alman um I think that all
that really ends up coming of it is
people realizing kind of how nonsensical
this structure was in the first place
the nonprofit board being removed and
eliminated and Sam either back at the
company in full or overse seeing it for
Microsoft or um whatever it is but but
to me okay this is in some ways a very
fun because it's such a Hot Topic and so
unique but but oneoff situation but what
about BPS you know so where you do have
these governance structures that are
supposed to be having these dual
missions of furthering some sort of
specific public good that the company
says they're committed to and
representing the interest of investors
shareholders employees and everything
else um and I just started to wonder
whether we're not you know at similar
risk for some of these problems
happening there too because if you have
what are effectively independent board
members with their own ideological views
and agenda and if they think that their
job is to further that and clearly the
open AI board members believe that I
think they were wrong but they certainly
believed it um why wouldn't these
problems reoccur and be Corp as well
wasn't the money I mean talk about you
could talk about the structure till you
know we're blue in the face but didn't
the money basically compromise this
Mission from the beginning like if you
get 13 billion in funding from one
investor Microsoft even if that a lot of
that is in Azure credits right like how
could you you possibly you know they're
one of the biggest publicly traded
companies in the world how could you
possibly do that and look yourself in
the in the face in the mirror and say
you know what we're still going to be
you know uh sticking with this mission
of um you know advancing artificial
general intelligence in a safe way like
doesn't that go out the window the
minute that check is cut yeah I mean
look it doesn't mean that every company
has to then operate in a way that
maximizes profits at the expensive
safety you can make a choice to say we
need AI to advance and be regulated in a
responsible way for the industry to
succeed long term for the good of our
investors so that's a reasonable
position to take but yeah I mean what
they should have done is said this is a
potentially is massive business and
we're going to establish the open AI
foundation and that's our nonprofit arm
and that'll have its own board and they
will get a certain amount of you know
revenue or proceeds whatever is every
year and they can spend it on
responsible a governance and things like
that that would have been a much more
logical approach um having the nonprofit
board running a for-profit company um
ended up being
the is the AI field actually all cracked
up to be if companies are working on
this need to raise that magnitude of
money I mean there was a Washington Post
report that talked a little bit about
how another thing that Sam was working
on was potentially raising some money
from some Sovereign wealth funds in the
Middle East and they were concerned that
it would be used this money would end up
you know helping build AI that would be
used for surveillance and population
control what do you think about that I
mean first of all that's certainly
possible um you know I assume that like
most Technologies it's very expensive to
the beginning especially when it's
transformational technology and as the
large language models get built and
perfected and everything else um the
cost ultimately goes down but even now I
I really in the way that we look at
investing we separate out generative AI
from AI broad right so we're not gender
of AI investors we don't have any po
expertise in that space But most of my
portfolio companies are using AI in some
form to do their job now I don't
consider them AI companies like consider
them digital Health companies or legal
tech companies or whatever they might be
um but AI has become a fairly
commonplace tool um for most tech
companies now to use in some fashion so
that's really the broad-based
application of it know chat GPT or
whatever else it is is sort of a cool
quirky thing and maybe will end up being
really meaningful maybe it won't um but
the vast majority is it's a tool it's
higher computer processing just like
Quantum computing will be just like
blockchain is a tool that makes sense
for some companies to use and everything
else exactly so what have your VC
friends been saying in your group chats
about this is is this going to lead to a
change in the way that they do business
outside of the oh my God what happened
stuff right no I mean I I think again
because it was so weird and unique and
you've got like every buzzword right Sam
alman's really famous micros soft you
know artificial intelligence chat GPT
like if you were writing this like you
said as like a screenplay you could
thrown in more sort of things that would
generate excitement and attention um so
look I think everyone finds the
structure they had to be ridiculous
everyone assumes that Sam will end up
back in charge one way or another um I
think the tender offer will still move
forward um is it possible that the
people who are buying in an 80 decide
now it's only worth 60 sure as as you
and I know this stuff is all very
variable um but at the same time the
underlying business hasn't changed one
way or the other once Sam's back in
control um and so I think that everyone
is looking at this from two ways one is
the hey this is a fun show um and
it's about gossip about and everything
else and then the other would be let's
make sure that none of us were ever in
this position and again I don't think
we're ever going to be in the sense of
any of us in investing in a company
that's been run by a nonprofit board
that's why I brought up the borp thing
because I think that starts to get a
little more close to reality where there
are you know Warby Parker Alber
Kickstarter mean there are some really
legitimate companies that are B Corps
that's not bad but I do think that it is
worth asking the question of you know
what is the responsibility of those
board members to the investors because
if those board members say we have no
responsibility to the investors which is
obviously how the open AI board members
saw it um that's a problem definitely so
is your prediction that Sam ends up back
at open AI yes I think last time I
checked there were over 700 of the 7
employees said they were leaving so yeah
now again whether it's some structure
where it it runs up through him through
Microsoft in some way or he's the CEO I
think he was back in charge one way or
the other regard
it's so odd that Microsoft is apparently
in the situation where SA andela has
basically had last second notice of this
firing then tries to orchestrate a
return can't in the time frame that he
needs to before the Market opens goes
out and tells everybody that Altman and
Greg Brockman are joining Microsoft and
now has come and said well maybe they'll
go back to open Ai and indeed that that
might be what happened a lot people
stuned the bleeding he did he's a really
good CEO But ultimately they've got1 13
billion in this company and they need to
see a succeed right it seems like they
were also just a bit too risky don't you
think I mean I guess they needed this AI
part of the house but it was like one
hell of a bargain don't you think that
to put themselves in that situation it
well you kind of have to wonder what the
lawyers said in the room internally at
Microsoft around putting you know that
kind of money you know 11 figures right
into that kind of structure I assume
lots of council said this is a terrible
idea we can't do it this way and
Microsoft said it is existential for our
long-term future to be inextricably
linked to AI this is the best
opportunity for us to do that and we
will agree to some sort of unusual
structures as a result um clearly
there's a regret now but I don't think
they would regret making the investment
the regret would only be if Sam never
came back and 700 700 employees left and
the company fell apart assuming that's
averted and I suspect it will be um it
probably works out for them but again it
is hard to Envision anybody agreeing to
ever invest in a
structur right okay let's talk a little
bit about the broader story in the US
right now which is this upcoming 2024
election we're less than a year
away yeah sorry as we say in politics
we're in the cycle we're in the cycle
yeah yeah um is this it feels crazy to
me that we're going to go into this with
Biden and Trump as the nominees you have
Trump who obviously is uh damaged in his
own way he seems to have gotten more
radical since he left office he tried to
overthrow the US government like very
clearly yes and then you have Biden who
like is just falling behind him in all
these polls and people say he's too old
and and there's
definitely deep discomfort with the you
know the the more vocal left shall we
say among mainstream voters in the
country what what's your view of what's
happening in in the US right now and
where do you think this heads yeah two
things so one is from a specific
election standpoint I think the polls
are reflective of what people are
telling the poll stairs um but we're
also still pretty far off the election
itself there are a bunch of variables
that until we see how they play out make
it very hard to make any sort of even
vaguely accurate prediction around where
it's going to end up so the first one
being what happens in Trump's trials is
he convicted of a felony if so when is
it before the general election um is
there a Tipping Point like with his base
it seems clear that every indictment
actually only makes him stronger but
with
Independence is there a tipping point
where if you get convicted of a felony
then they say okay I'm out I don't know
and I my get my guess is no and there's
not um but that's number one number two
look Biden's certainly not going to get
any younger he turned 81
yesterday but how how's he doing right
um there's a world where they put him in
bubble wrap keep him inside the White
House and say the best thing we can do
is for people to see him as little as
possible and there's a world where they
say we need to prove that he's a lot
more vigorous and vibrant than people
think and they put him out there
whichever approach and strategy they use
comes with its own set of risk so how
are those materialized right three the
economy and the perception of the
economy you know it's interesting that
we're at a moment right now where the at
least politically the perception of the
economy is more important than the
reality of the economy right so you know
where does inflation go does it soften
and does anyone feel it enough that it
changes their view um what happens to
interest rates clearly U it would juice
the economy and on every VC you know
watching this right now it's like cut
interest rates cut interest rates um
because we certainly need that um but I
get the sense that Powell doesn't really
care what any president thinks and
that's to his credit broadly speaking so
where's that for the war in Israel maybe
there's a ceasefire soon as today based
on the reports maybe it becomes a more
regional conflict maybe it becomes a
global conflict right we have no idea um
fif Hunter Biden you know is what
happens with him is there some sort of
prosecu conviction where do those
Republican impeachment hearings lead um
so there are so many different things
that we don't even know the answers to
yet um that we can analyze the race to
say here's where we think it would go
depending on how how any of those five
or six variables play out um but you
can't make an analysis without that but
let me make a broader point which is
just we live in a world with Incredible
cognitive diss right from a statistical
standpoint the world from macro level is
in the best shape it's ever been right
in terms of life expectancy and infinite
mortality and literacy and extreme
poverty and all of that and it feels
worse than ever and it feels worse than
ever for a few reasons one is uh because
of social media we're constantly seeing
what we don't have and what other people
seem to have who are doing better than
us that makes us anxious two everything
that ever goes wrong is now news to the
entire world immediately so if Cruz has
an autonomous vehicle in San Francisco
that crosses the long yellow line we all
know about it right um and all of a
sudden it's like oh autonomous taxis are
terrible no they're not it's you know
they're going to take time to develop um
and there's so much uncertainty I think
gen Z especially just feels between
climate change and the impacts of covid
and the psych impacts of social media
you know especially fragile and upset
and so as a result people want change
right and they always think that it was
better before so it seems to me like for
example one thing the Biden team is
really getting wrong in my view is they
keep trying to impeach Trump on the same
moral arguments and it's like we all get
it he's a scumbag like every there's no
one that doesn't understand that their
problem is a lot of people are saying
yes he is what he is but they feel like
they were better off when he was
president than they feel today and
they're willing to make that off um and
Biden's got to convince people that
actually know you weren't better off and
you'll be even worse off if he's put
back an office um than you are right now
you've got to impeach him substantively
because people are always these days
going to be upset with the status quo
and they're always going to assume that
it had to have been better before than
it is now okay I want to seize on one
thing that you said at the very
beginning of that answer which is that
Trump may be I mean he has like what
three or four cases that are pening
against him he might be convicted of a
felony uh what do you think the chances
of that happening are and if he is can
he can he like still run and then win
the presidency yes yes so legally he can
um Eugene Debs who is a socialist
candidate I think it was maybe 1924 28
um actually ran his presidential
campaign from a prison cell um so he do
uh I think he was just a socialist in
grimel for you know probably incited
violence at some protest or something
okay um so yes he can and it is unclear
if you take for example the Georgia
election prosecution if he is the
sitting president it is unclear at best
whether he can be prosecuted while he's
President right so the federal crime so
there there's four crimes so there's
kind of Espionage and treason right so
that's sort of the documents case in
January 6 he can pardon himself on both
of those so those go away
then there's the New York stormmy
Daniels crime which is is pretty di
Minimus I don't think not even sure he
gets convicted on that one um and then
and then the George election one which
is serious I think they've got a good
shot of convict that state that's that's
that's actually County it's like uh
Fulton County Georgia so um so then the
question is can they can they imprison
the sitting president uh for something
like that I think the answer is legal
Scholars seems to be saying no so I
think if Trump wins he's probably in the
clear from a legal standpoint at least
for these actions for the term uh maybe
he then has to serve prison time after
that maybe he's dead by then who knows
um but yeah his best shot at Freedom is
winning the election exactly so we we'll
see he's gonna be motivated to win okay
talk a little bit about obvious in in
hindsight I mean it's about this
campaign to bring flying cars uh to
Market you know you gave the cruise
analogy so maybe we can you know talk a
little bit about that cuz we've had Kyle
vote on the show and I've been bullish
about cruise and now I'm definitely uh
uh starting to lick my wounds on that
one um but I'm curious like what what uh
motivated you to write the book and
what's the main lesson here and before
before you go I just want to say we have
a nice uh crowd watching on YouTube so
if you have questions for Bradley we
will we will take them oh yeah hold up
the book yeah smile thumbnail and now go
ahead all right yeah if you have
questions we'll take them so but go
ahead the novel's about a campaign to
legalize Fine Cars in New York LA and
Austin on one side is the flying car
startup and their vicious political
consultants and on the other side is
Uber the autobar society the Socialists
the transit unions and the Russian young
um and it is deliberately somewhat
absurdist um but what I'm trying to show
in the book is while the decisions that
the VCS make the founders make the
politicians make in the book are maybe a
little crazy the underlying motivations
that shape their decisions are exactly
what happens in real life and exactly
the ways that we think about all these
things and I just think that if you can
understand why people make the decisions
they make then you have a chance of
doing something about it and if you just
sit there and sort of just deny reality
or just wish they were better people um
you can't affect anything um it came
about so I wrote a Memoir a couple years
ago called the fixer about kind of I've
been doing in politics and Tech and you
know Stephen Soderberg is he's a movie
director um you know traffic Eric Brock
and all that stuff oceans so he
read it he said hey we should make this
a TV show and I started thinking about
like cool wants to make a TV show would
be awesome right um what would
be a little more future Focus because
like all by day job all day is to leave
I sort of new disruptive Technologies
right so flying cars felt out there
enough and I wrote a campaign plan for
how I would legalize them just like we
would in real life yeah um Stephen and I
worked on the pilot together I wrote
nine more episodes and then our big
meeting to pitch it was with Apple TV
from March 10th 2020 as you can imagine
that didn't happen um and I decided
during the pandemic like maybe I can
turn this into a novel and I had no idea
how to write a novel but eventually
figured it out
um and uh got lucky enough that somebody
wanted to publish it and the cool thing
is Stephen and I are now back at it
again so I was in LA last week on
meetings to see if we can make this a TV
show that'd be great I'd love to watch
the show and it does have so many
parallels right because it seems like uh
there's there's so many cuttingedge
technologies that are coming out of
Silicon Valley and like the big question
is like how does this get in the hands
of people safely right that's the
through line with open AI yeah that's
why fact that that's when we were sort
of making a case like you could have 10
seasons right because you just pick a
new disruptive technology and what's
also amazing is flying cars have made
our EV
TOS so much progress since when I first
started working on this so it went from
this like kind of still Fantastical
concept to the mayor of New York City
had an event with Joby last week like
and it was like literally bringing
together the real life of City politics
and flying cars in the way that when I
wrote it the book was meant to be
totally you know futuristic and
fantastic do you think that we have a
healthy relationship with the way that
we like either yeah with the way that we
let technology go to market I mean
there's it's so interesting let me set
this up so you have Facebook right which
everyone's like we move too fast we let
them no no guard rails at all and of
course they came out and you know had
some externalities shall we say and then
we had something like Cruz which you
mentioned
uh which like seems like it's on a good
direction it made a mistake right it
definitely dragged this pedestrian about
20 feet like it's terrible um but like
overall the safety record look good and
now who knows what's going to happen to
that company so where do you think like
Society is in terms of allowing people
to um bring technology to Market couple
things so first of all by definition
regulation has to lag Innovation because
until the founder comes up with the new
idea and executes on it there's nothing
to regulate and if the bureaucrat who
does the regulation could have thought
the new idea uh he or she would be the
founder not the bureaucrat right um it
typically in my experience every compact
new startup falls into one of two
buckets the first is they come up with a
better way to do something right so the
first tech thing I ever worked on was
Uber and Travis didn't invent the idea
of paying someone take you from point8
to point B but he came up with a much
better way to do it and ultimately all
the political regulatory fights we had
were really market share fights through
the guise of Regulation and that it's
true for Airbnb and FanDuel kind of
everything in existing markets and then
there's the white spaces right so that
could be AI or crypto or autonomous
vehicles or flying cars or whatever you
want where the good news is there's no
entrenched interest that you're having
to take down and disrupt and fight with
but the bad news is there's no
regulatory framework at all right and so
you got to figure the whole thing out
and so in a case like Cruz there is no
AV regulatory framework yet there's
Patchwork stuff by different cities and
different states the federal government
has refused to deal with it um and I
think you know yes we obviously what
happened there was terrible we have to
be careful of it but as I understand it
an American is killed in a car accident
every 15 minutes of the day 24 hours a
day 3 65 days a year um if we don't want
that to keep happening we have to have
autonomous vehicles they will ultimately
be much safer and in order to have them
they've got to be deployed they've got
to be tested and they're going to make
some mistakes and that's not to say that
you then don't try to make them as safe
as possible and regulate it but if if
they have sort of zero tolerance policy
that one thing happens and then they're
sort of deterred for years all that's
going to do is means that tens and tens
of thousands of indust people are going
to keep dying in car accidents when they
don't have to right exactly and so we
had a question here should we acquire
Cruz from marshmallow thank you for the
question marshmallow look I think he's
saying uh crew or they're saying Cruz
the um the car company not Ted Cruz even
though we got the spelling not want
require Ted
Cruz I still think look this is always
the tension right which is is it
possible that the politics and narrative
every counc around this really does s
Cruz maybe um but does the underlying
techn ology persevere yeah absolutely
okay all right we got three minutes left
I got to ask you about Eric Adams mayor
of New York City yep you know I guess I
liked Adams because he was like a New
Yorker after our two Boston uh based
Mayors RI Bloomberg and DeBlasio if I
see another New York mayor wear a Red
Sox hat to a baseball game I gotta move
somewhere else so as as I get as someone
who ran Bloomberg's campaign yeah he is
not a Red Sox fan or a Yankees fan or a
Mets fan or really any sort of sports
fan so look I mean
I okay well we'll put that on to Blasio
um but but Adams just you know he seems
it seemed in when he took office he was
going to be very entertaining and a
walking Scandal and he seems like he's
been both what's your sort of totally
one minute assessment of what's going on
with him on one hand what's happening is
remarkable so for the viewers that
aren't familiar um about a week ago the
FBI approached him on the street and
sees his phones right which is a
remarkable act because there's 20 other
ways they could have done that quietly
right and instead they chose to do
something incredibly high-profile U
they've had raids of various homes of
staffers of his they are acting as if
they clearly have the goods on the guy
and maybe they do but then what we know
about in terms of what they say he did
doesn't sound so bad what he's accused
of doing is getting money either from
the Turkish government or their allies
for his campaign um and then calling the
fire commissioner and asking him to
expedite a a certificate of occupancy so
the Turkish Embassy could open in time
for Eran to come to the ceremony um you
know maybe inappropriate but pretty
business as usual right and if you're
going to take down the mayor of New York
City I think you got to have a better
justification than that he called the
fire commissioner about something
because one of two things will happen if
he gets indicted either he refuses to
resign and the lesson from Trump and
Mendez every analysis just stay in the
job now we have a mayor governing under
indictment that's bad or if he did
resign because we would have the public
Advocate would replace him then a
special election 90 days later and then
the real election would be about a year
and a half later we could have four
Mayors in two years that's a disaster to
so if Adams was taking bribes in any way
if he did something genuinely truly
immoral and illegal he should certainly
be be indicted for it but if all we're
talking about is is calling the fire
commissioner about of occupancy like to
me it's way over absolutely the book is
obvious in hindsight the author is
Bradley Tusk I can't wait to watch the
series maybe on Apple or somewhere else
have to find Cameo for you absolutely
yeah you can have me as the uh the
resident
podcaster great talking with you as
always thank you for being here and good
luck with everything thanks so much
bye