OpenAI’s $50 Billion Fundraise, AI Advertising Game Theory, Apple’s AI Wearable Pin

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2026-01-26

YouTube video id: nydvN4icgu4

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nydvN4icgu4

OpenAI is raising $50 billion. What
happens if the funding runs out? Ads,
meanwhile, are coming to Generative AI
and Apple is developing an AI pin.
That's coming up on a Big Technology
Podcast Friday edition right after this.
Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday
Edition, where we break down the news
and our traditional, coolheaded, and
nuanced format. We have a big show for
you today. We're going to talk all about
the massive fundraising that OpenAI is
reportedly engaged in. They want to
raise $50 billion. [music] Also, right
after we went off the air last week,
OpenAI said, "Guess what? It's
advertising time." So, we'll [music]
discuss the implication of ads in
Generative AI chatbots. We also have an
idea of what those ads are going to look
like. And then finally, we'll spend a
bunch of [music] time at the end talking
about Apple developing a new AI
wearable. according to reports an AI
pin. Uh is are they going to bring the
humane team in? I don't know. We we'll
find out. Joining us as always on
Fridays to do it is Ranjan Roy of
Margins. Ranjan, great to see you.
Welcome back to the show.
>> It's good to see you. I'm very excited
to talk about Siri and all these other
things. But first, I have to ask, where
are you in the world right now, Alex?
>> So, I am in my hotel room in or really a
kind of an apartment in Davos. Uh, I've
just wrapped a massive week. This is the
seventh podcast I've done in four days.
Uh, six of which are actually going to
end up on the big technology feed. Three
of which or yeah, three of which
including this one are already there,
including the Cristiano Oman Qualcomm
CEO episode, the Demis episode, which
just went up and now we we're talking.
It's been a busy week. It's been a weird
weird Davos. Uh, I think that like this
is the globalization conference and
you've had Trump, you know, coming in
saying he wants to um the people in
Iceland love him, but I think he meant
Greenland and um, you know, obviously
there's that was one of the big things
that have hung over the conference. Some
of members of administration of his
administration talking about not
globalization but separation. Uh but I
would say for our purposes really the
most interesting thing is the Davos is a
basically a tech conference right now
and you walk down the prominade and you
basically see um houses set up by every
single tech company. Uh you know there's
Amazon is here, Facebook is here, Google
is here. It's where I did the Demis
conversation. Uh LinkedIn is here.
Anthropic is here. Not too much of a
presence uh from OpenAI but they're
certainly here as well. Um, and then you
know there's a big presence from the
Gulf States here as well. So Qatar has a
big house. The Emirates has a big house.
Trying to think what else. Um, but it's
like a one.
>> Have you been to the
>> Have you been to the Qatar House? I want
to go to the Qar house. That's
>> Well, I didn't go there.
>> I don't know what's going on in the Qar
house, but that's where I want to go.
>> I think they are they are very
interested in investing in tech. Maybe
Sam Holtman is not even in the Qar
house, but he's gonna make a stop there
because he's definitely on a fundraising
kick right now. But a fun fact, I did go
to Qar over the summer last year. Uh I
spent a day there uh basically as a
stopover on uh Qatara Airlines between
Nepal and Germany and got a chance to
take a tour and
>> yeah, I I would say so. Listen, Qatar is
a small enough country.
>> Over was it over 24 hours
>> in that in that range?
>> In that r Okay. Okay. I'll give you Qar.
I'll give you
>> And Qatar is a small enough country you
can see a lot of it in a day. And in
fact, we saw a good chunk. We got a we
took a tour of the north um which is a
lot of uh empty desert and some ruins
and uh actually a defunct fishing
industry that they had to shut down. by
and large, there's still a couple
fishing boats um because they found
natural gas in the ocean and that was
that and that's one of the main sources
of wealth. So yeah, their house here
actually was of the colors of their flag
which was very interesting. Um well,
I'll tell you one one Davos observation.
So we got some questions in the Discord.
Who did you see and you know rub
shoulders with? And honestly, I was
really focused on the podcast. I didn't
go to any parties. I got a chance to
meet with a lot of great people here. Uh
that's kind of how I like to do things.
But the most interesting thing to me
here is it's one sidewalk. So as you
walk up and down, uh you're just bumping
into people as you go. And sometimes
that means meeting people that you know
from, you know, the the work world or
friends from different lives. And
sometimes that means literally bumping
into people because some countries have
people walking on the right side of the
sidewalk as their custom and some people
have, you know, some countries have
people walking on the left side of the
sidewalk as their custom. So you have
way too many people here on a very
narrow sidewalk and there's no agreed
upon direction to walk back and forth
on. So you're literally like slamming
into people all day long. And half of
the people as you imagine in a place
like this are on their phones. So that
to me has been the big takeaway. We need
a universal left and right way of uh
>> this is why this is why globalization
was never meant to be because people
couldn't all agree which side of the
sidewalk to walk on. So actually on that
what is the globalization vibe right
now? Is it has everyone just moved on to
AI right now or is like the World
Economic Forum in Davos still selling
the dream of a integrated hyperconnected
world?
>> Well, remember that was that dream was
largely sold and orchestrated by a man
named Klaus Schwab uh who has plenty of
detractors and people who don't like
this uh move towards globalization but
anyway uh and he doesn't seem like he
was a very nice person at all. uh and he
actually ended up res resigning because
of uh a nasty scandal. Um so this is now
effectively like the Larry Frink Davos.
So uh that and Elon Musk is here today.
I think Zalinski's made his way here. So
he I think there's there there's talk
that Davos might be held in a different
city like Dublin or Detroit or Jakarta
in the future which you know that would
be welcome because there's way too many
um people in such a small ski town. Um
it's it's overwhelmed uh without a doubt
but that the like I said at the
beginning the vibe is weird. And one
last thing, I think the sidewalk problem
is an argument for globalization. Maybe
the best argument for globalization
because if the world can come together
as one, at least we might be able to
agree on which which side of the
sidewalk or street to drive on, walk on
or drive on.
>> I believe I believe it's not over yet,
folks. Globalization and world harmony
are still in your shot as long as we all
learn to walk on the same side of the
sidewalk. Okay, one last one last note,
then we can go and talk about OpenAI's
uh fundraising. Lot of snipers and a lot
of machine guns being moved moved about.
Military vehicles moved about this one
block.
>> Yes.
>> Lots of snipers. Lot of machine guns.
>> Snipers on the rooftops just hanging
out.
>> Yes. Yes.
>> See many that Yeah. When I'm hanging out
at the guitar house, I want to make sure
I have my own personal sniper just up on
the roof just keeping an eye on me.
That's all.
>> You might need one because your your
criticism of Siri is really not making
you many friends. We'll get to that at
the end.
>> Tim Cook is out for you. He's out for
blood. [laughter]
>> He's a powerful man. Ron John, don't
cross the guy. Uh, all right.
>> Do you think Sam Alman has a sniper as
he tours the Middle East as part of this
fund raise? And that'll be my segue.
>> Um, I think there's certainly some
security involved for sure. and if he
makes this fundraising uh deal go
through, there's going to be a need for
even more security. So, now that we've
done our our Davos prelude, let's talk
about what's actually happening in the
world. Uh, all right. Bloomberg says,
"OpenAI's Altman meets Middle East
investors, Middle East investors for $50
billion or $50 billion round. OpenAI
chief executive Sam Alman has been
meeting with top investors in the Middle
East to line up funding for a new
investment round that could total at
least $50 billion." Altman recently
visited the region where he spoke with
investors including some of the leading
statebacked funds in Abu Dhabi. The chat
GPT maker is looking to raise 50 billion
or more in the round at a valuation of
about 750 billion or 830 billion. I mean
there's two reactions to this that I
have right away. First of all, I wonder
if the company can keep raising money
like they're at the final boss which is
the Gulf States. um that's you you don't
really have many places to go until uh
after you tap the sovereign wealth fund.
So it looks like he's doing that. So
that's one question. Are they going to
be able to keep fundraising? And the
other question is do these do the size
of these rounds put expectations on this
company that will never be able to be
met? What do you think? Ron John,
>> I don't think the size is going to be
any more of an issue that it than it
already has. again like 50 billion at a
800 billionish valuation. I mean for the
amount of money they have been raising
this almost feels like a not
unreasonable amount of money. I think
more importantly though is what you were
saying in terms of like really focused
on the Middle East and sovereign wealth
funds as you said that's always been a
very specific type of fundraising
strategy um you know when it's when
you've tapped out of a lot of other
sources. So on that side, I think it can
be indicative of is there or at least
raises the question is there fatigue
among all of those early investors or
more traditional sources of funding. But
by the same token like I mean MGX and
all these other funds have been really
focused on modernizing the economies and
overall strategies and bringing tech to
the Middle East. So I think uh I think
on that side it's it's not unexpected at
all. What what do you think the signals?
>> I think this is the thing like they're
going to eventually have to make enough
money to justify this type of uh
valuation. I mean, think about it. I
think Saudi Aramco was the largest uh
the largest IPO ever and they brought in
40 40 billion in that IPO. And man, they
legitimately are printing money. their
oil comes out of the ground. Um, so
we're really going to have to see OpenAI
be able to make the money to justify
this and we're going to get into that in
a moment. Um, in terms of where that
money is, you know what? Actually, screw
it. Let's go right to it right now
because this is important. Um, as
they're going through this fund raise,
um, very interesting thing happens. They
put a uh they put a blog post out uh by
Sarah Frier, their CFO. Uh she writes,
"OpenAI, a business that scales with the
value of intelligence." She writes this,
"Looking back over the past three years,
our ability to serve customers as
measured by revenue directly tracks
available compute. Compute grew 3x
year-over-year or 9.5x
from 2023 to 2025. While revenue
followed the same curve, growing 3x
year-over-year or 10x from 2023 to 2025.
This has never before seen growth at
such scale and we firmly believe that
more compute in these periods would have
led to faster customer adoption and
monetization. So basically the argument
is um we will make more money if we have
more compute because the limit right now
is not interest on behalf of customers
to use the technology, it's our ability
to serve it. And we've talked a lot
about how um you know there are these
rate limits and people have been
frustrated by them um and maybe they
would use the products more if they
weren't rate limited. Uh and OpenAI is
basically saying look you follow our
compute our uh our revenue tracks
directly with it. Therefore adding you
know many you know $50 billion
potentially they haven't I don't think
they've confirmed that number is a good
bet that we will make the money.
Although the money of course, you know,
it would be funny if they also had
another chart what they paid for that
compute. Uh because the money is
certainly still a drop in the bucket
compared to the compute they're buying.
So what do you think about this?
Obviously, it's time to to the fundra.
No, no, I I I agree because it was I
think it was an incredibly well-crafted
corporate communication because it laid
out this really clear story like one to
one ratio of growth in compute to
revenue in terms of like 9xing and and
on face I agree it sounds nice. It
sounds really good. It's saying like
we're actually scaling compute in
parallel with revenue. But you're right,
it's we know they're losing ungodly
amounts of money. Even this week we saw
anthropic I think it was 5.8 billion
they're on pace to lo 5.6 billion last
last year is now confirmed is what was
lost. So like and we everyone is knows
this and has been talking about it that
these companies have been burning
ungodly amounts of cash. Um, so when you
dig in one level deeper, I think it
doesn't really answer the question, but
it still I thought was a pretty kind of
craftily put together argument of why
they actually are okay. But yeah, it
doesn't it still doesn't add up overall,
>> right? I mean, eventually they're going
to have to start making money, right?
That's the thing. Like, how many times
can they go back and fund raise? They
can have this. Okay, let's say they get
this round from the Gulf States. they
could probably go back to the Gulf
States one more time for a mega round,
right? So, let's say a hundred billion.
Um, if the Gulf States are happy with
the investment that because they have
that money that maybe values them at 1
trillion, 1.25, 1, one and a half and
then eventually you have to go to the
public markets, right? So, how many So,
it sounds like maybe they're looking at
being able to raise
ballpark 250 billion more
and you know what what happens if
they're not able to like and then
eventually you got to start making money
right like eventually you have to be a
business
>> as businesses go that that does seem to
be the case um and actually I will be in
Abu Dhabi next week myself not raising
$50 billion but speaking at the shop
talk Lux conference and I wish maybe
I'll finally somehow get go to the Abu
Dhabi house if not the guitar house and
get some kind of fund fundraising
interest. But but I think in terms of
this like yeah having to make money
monetization it the the interesting part
is it's clear that they've made that a
much bigger part of the conversation.
We've heard the story enterprise
personal devices AI cloud they just made
a big announcement uh I forget his name
but the guy who came over from thinking
machines under cloudies Barrett Zaf he
is actually going to be heading
enterprise which has been stated as one
of their big priorities of 2026. So, so
I think it's clear that all the I mean
actually it's funny almost like the idea
that we just get to ADGI and it all
figures itself out. They are trying to
present themselves as a proper business
this year. So in 2026 we're going to see
is it real or not. And I think it's
going to have to be for this to actually
kind of continue as it is.
>> I I I disagree Ron John. I think it's,
you know, 2026, they're still going to
skate by on uh on fundraising, but maybe
I'm crazy. Eventually, they're going to
have to make a profit, right? Like even
if you are okay to make a loss, you
don't have infinite sources of money.
They're going to have to eventually make
a profit. I don't, you know, it's a
question right now. Obviously, they have
this belief that if they're, you know,
their their revenue is limited by
compute, then they should get more
compute, so they raise money to buy it.
But,
you know, they have to let's say demand
continues to go up. I mean, they're
going to still, you know, serve more
people, make more money, but lose more
money. Like, eventually the math has to
work, right?
>> I mean, yes. You're trying to bring a
little rationality to a conversation
that has not happened to me in a long
time. So, I this Davos has changed you,
man. Davos has changed you. But, uh, I
think actually separate. So there's the
actual like can OpenAI make money based
on like all these kind of peripheral
business models, but even from a
competitive standpoint, I just saw a
stat that Gemini is now at 22% of
consumer AI usage, up from 13.5 just a
quarter ago, which was their code red. I
mean, we all know Claude code has gotten
a lot more hype and excitement
reasonably so than open AI. like open AI
has not we've talked a lot about this
this is my own the company I worked for
writer like kind of autonomous knowledge
work claude code manis to me this is the
biggest most important part of trend in
2026 they don't really have an offering
in this so I'm actually almost more
interested in how they're planning to
address all this competitive pressure
versus on a straight chat GPT level can
they make money or even chat GPT pro
subscription ions maybe a little
enterprise whatever else like they they
I don't know they have to land or show
promise in one of these additional
business models very quickly I think for
them to for them to raise that next $250
billion round or whatever you're saying
like they have to show something
>> all right well like you know user
numbers is one thing right we always
knew that Google would be able to you
know juice its user numbers because it
can bolt on its AI products and its
standard products. Uh but usage is this
that you cited. That's the problem,
right? Because as soon as open open AI,
you know, for a long time, far and away
had mo the most usage of any AI bot. And
now it seems like, you know, they're
still far in the lead, but that is being
cut. It's not like a Google Bing
situation, right? Like Google's making
real real headway here. And again, they
have the distribution. So just take us
to 2027. and they have it they're let's
say they're IPOing
um they're they're going to have to
still have the product lead and the lead
is shrinking. I was just on CNBC a
couple minutes ago. I was speaking with
the anchor Kelly Evans about this. I was
like the product is in the lead and she
said it's shrinking and you know that
lead is it is shrinking and of course
like is a AWS's lead is shrinking but
AWS is still you know far and away the
leading cloud provider. They're doing
great. they're underpinning Amazon's
entire valuation. So having the lead
matters. Uh but it's it's far from the
like one horse game in consumer that it
was not long ago. So what do you think
that means as they try to IPO? Is that
going to cloud their story?
>> Oh definitely. Which is why again I
think and I think what were we saying
last week before it's is it the
foundation model or the product and then
we introduced is it actually the
business model. they have to figure
something out cuz it it's uh like again
at a from a user perspective the
switching costs are so low in any of
these chat bots so far now everyone is
talking about memory and context and
that's going to be the moat but right
now there is no moat like from a actual
user experience just consumergrade chat
AI is all pretty good like I mean people
have different uses for different chat
bots if you're an avid user otherwise
maybe and as you said Google has
distribution so I think user perspective
is dangerous so they have to show we can
make a lot of money doing drug
development and pharmaceutical
development and uh launching their own
uh I think they're it was rumored
they're going to be launching an AirPods
type device. We're going to get into the
pin from Apple in a bit but did you see
that or
>> I did see that. Yeah, that that that
that's the rumor that it's going to be
their first wearable. Um so that will be
interesting. And yeah, we'll talk about
the wearable side when we get to Apple
in the second half. But um one thing
about this, I don't think memory is a
mode. Remember, it's largely text. So
here's a question for you. Let's say I'm
in chat. I want to switch to Gemini.
What if I just said, "Print out
everything you know about me. Use as
many characters as you need." And then I
copied that and I pasted that right into
Gemini and be like, "This is your
memory. Let's go."
>> I'm gonna be everyone try it. I'm going
to try. I like it because I was just
about to say, you know, like are they
going to have some very defensive lack
of export functionality in order to
remain defensible, but it's a chatbot.
It has very big context windows. We can
drain their compute, too. We can just
use up all just every word I've written
to you. JBT print out and please put it
in a format that will be legible maybe
markdown for Gemini and uh I'm trying
that after this
>> can I I'll be honest I've done it before
I mean I not I have asked it to print
its memory but I also used I think I
used uh Claude as a diet coach and then
I copied and I copied and pasted the
entire discussion and I dropped it into
OpenAI because I thought OpenAI's memory
would be interesting to experiment with
and then I made open AAI the diet coach
and guess what? It picked up on my
tendencies. It picked up on the advice
it should give right away.
>> So, it's very
>> No, I mean, you're right. You're right.
It it it's not it can't be like singular
part of your life context and memory. It
has to be like knowing you inside and
out and your companion and maybe lover,
but it it's got to be it's got to get to
that level. Otherwise, switching costs
are too easy.
The chatbot being your love partner is
the only moat. I'm convinced
>> is the only moat. Love is the only moat.
Memory is not a moat. Only love is.
>> Love is that honestly another great
tagline that we've produced here on the
Friday show. Um, [laughter]
all right. So, so, so it has to get its
business uh in order. And here come the
ads. Last week we left off advertising.
You know, who's going to be the company
that gets advertising right? You said uh
OpenAI, I said Google. Uh immediately
after we signed off, OpenAI started to
uh experiment with advertising in Chad
GPT. This is from Wired. Ads are coming
to Chad GPT. Here's how they'll work.
OpenAI plans to start testing ads inside
ChatGpt in the coming weeks, marking a
significant shift for one of the world's
most widely used AI products. Open eye
says the ads will not influence chat
GPT's responses and that all ads will
appear in separate clearly labeled boxes
directly below the chatbot's answer. For
instance, if a user asks Chat GPT for
help planning a trip to New York City,
they will get a standard answer from the
chatbot and then they might also uh see
an ad for a hotel in the area. And these
are going to initially go to the free
users and the $8 a month go tier which
is a new thing. Um the opening I gave an
interesting example of what the ad could
look like. Uh you're looking for a uh
some you're looking about you're looking
up uh some information about Santa Fe
and then underneath in a clearly labeled
sponsored section they uh pop in a uh ad
for a cottage rental in Santa Fe. Here's
the cool thing about this ad. You can
then tap the ad and start talking with
the ad to um you know to help book your
trip. So it sparked this notion but then
you can use generative AI to go even
deeper. That's very engaging ad. So
first of all Ranjan is this kind of what
you expected cuz you predicted that they
were going to go out first and what do
you think about the way that they're
structuring this? Yeah, I think and the
reason I've been confident in this is
because I work deeply in agentic
commerce and trying to understand like
what this is going to look like
chatbased
uh like suggestions like this that can
have like a sponsorship basis make all
the sense in the world. I do think
someone will nail this model and I think
everyone will be following and whether
it will be Gemini or OpenAI will we'll
see but but again like I use chat GPT
all day long for travel planning for
suggestions on where to eat and whatever
else like those kind of things. So
there's so much commercial opportunity
there. I think they recognize it even
like you know Fiji Simo had said like
people trust Chat GPT for many important
and personal tasks. It's crucial we
preserve what makes chat GPT valuable.
They have to get it right because the
moment they feel interruptive it's a
problem. Oh, and actually last week we
said Meta potentially is in the best
position to get it right because Meta
has proven that they can just shove ads
throughout the feed and everyone's happy
and they can make really good ads. So, I
think Chad GPT has to nail that
experience otherwise it's a it's
actually another competitive pressure on
their user growth because it's not going
to be it's going to make the product
less useful and sticky.
And and so here's the the question is um
you know is the thing that I saw well
the thing that I saw on social media
that made me laugh uh after we saw this
news was someone uh tweeted that if
openi really believed AGI was around the
corner uh why would they be bother you
know why would they be using ads like
they're clearly going to be much more
disruptive and uh useful uh forms of
this technology so why do advertising um
And uh I brought this up to Dennis Sabis
this week at Davos. He had a this was
one his comments on OpenAI were pointed
much more pointed than I anticipated. He
said I think I think those are tells. I
think actions speak louder than words.
Going back to the original conversation
cuz we started this way. Going back to
the original conversation we were having
with uh about Sam and others claiming
AGI is around the corner. Why would you
bother with ads then? And I I pressed
him. I said, "Well, you know, Demis, how
about you?" Right? because there's been
some discussion that Google is going to
do ads. He said, uh, we have no plan at
at no plans at the moment to do ads. If
you're talking about the Gemini app
specifically, I think we're obviously
going to watch very carefully the
outcome of what ChachiPT is saying
they're going to do. I think that has to
be handled very carefully.
>> Yeah, I I do kind of find it a bit rich
that Demis is saying this when Gemini is
adfunded. It's just not showing ads.
It's just that you are living on top of
a massive advertising monopoly and are
able to actually fund the entire project
and not have to show ads just yet. But I
think I actually I'm surprised he was so
aggressive about it too because remember
Google's biggest challenge is the
disruption to their monopolistic
advertising model. and they have to
figure out some way to actually turn
what existed in search into what's going
to be existing in GEO or LLM search or
whatever you want to call it. So like I
I I was surprised he kind of was taking
that stance. It actually made me curious
or think again organizationally like is
he so sheltered from the business
pressure for now and it's solely a user
story and usage story? Um what do you
think? Do you think he's just not no
one's Sundar is not tapping him on the
shoulder and saying make sure you're
gonna have to make a bit of money at a
certain point?
>> Uh this my guess would be that there is
some sort of uh debate going on within
Google that there is a group that really
wants to roll ads out. In fact, and I
brought this up to Demis on a recent
earnings quarter Sundar talked about how
they have some ideas about how you want
to do advertising uh in in you know
generative AI applications. So clearly
it's a discussion within the company and
I think the product side is probably
just like let's hold off as long as we
possibly can. Um and especially think
about this maybe if if they if they if
open AI uh goes and loses trust because
of the advertising and then people copy
and paste their their [clears throat]
memory and drop it into Gemini.
>> Yeah. As we're all going to do after
this episode. Yeah.
>> God. uh well you don't anyway I'm not
advocating for this but you know then
then that's a real advantage for Gemini
right on the product side and remember
they're in this product battle like all
the time in tech you have companies that
sort of compete based off of what they
can offer to users whether that's
incentives or you know the best possible
product uh experience and then once the
battle's won then they kind of muck it
up with ads and they raise their prices
and I think Google's been in these
battles a couple of times and I think
that must be the strategy I disagree
though because I actually think to get
to no one knows what advertising is
going to look like exactly in AI and I
genuinely believe there will be a new
format on par with what search
advertising was, what social platform
advertising was. Each of these were like
complete transformations of what
advertising is. And I think it's going
to be the same within an AI chat
experience. And I guess either you just
watch what others are doing and follow
once someone figures it out, but it can
be too late. And I think I actually
would take OpenAI's approach here of
starting small, experimenting, getting
it right versus the idea that you're
going to just wait it out for everyone
else to do it. Because I think like
Facebook invented social platform,
right? They they mastered it. Like they
didn't wait. they led the way and that's
what gave them dominance. Google did
that with search. So I think I would
rather be testing experiment and
figuring it out versus
just trying to pretend it's not going to
be a thing.
>> But it wasn't the business model like
Facebook didn't win social media because
it created the social ads platform. It
won because its products were the most
sticky and it found a very effective way
then to monetize. I think that this idea
and Demi said it like very very clearly
and by the way this is all from my end.
We didn't talk about this other anything
other than what he told me in the
conversation. So I don't have any like
deep insights about this um or
reporting. This is all speculation on my
end. But um he said like we are going to
watch and learn what OpenAI is doing.
And I don't think Google will pay a big
penalty for being late because remember
they can copy the format and they're
Google. they have better data than
almost anybody and they can apply that
and copy the format. Uh you know and and
maybe the better example here is what
Facebook did to Snapchat, right? It's
you watch your smaller competitor or
your competitor and then you copy the
best stuff and let them make the
mistakes. is no. But see, I would
actually again push back like I and
maybe it's like it's the business person
in me, but it's like I think the
Facebook innovating on the business
model within advertising like infeed
sponsored content kind of like ad
bidding systems related to infeed
sponsored ads. like that whole system
that they built I think is what made
them truly powerful cuz again when they
IPOed remember there was like a lot of
worry about losing money and there was
like they they could have been in a
position where imagine Mark Zuckerberg
acquires Instagram because but they're
not making any money and there's a
massive investor backlash like there's
so many kind of like historical moments
that not having a cash machine kind of
underneath the business would have meant
a great product would not work. And
actually talking about Snapchat, they
have shown that you can't just replicate
a business model even if if you have
massive user engagement and growth. So I
think I'm going to go with I'm still
taking Open AI in the ad battle. You
sound like uh you might be leaning
Gemini in the end.
>> Yeah. I mean that's the way I was.
That's where I was last week and that's
where I am this week. So uh let me ask
you Yeah.
>> Yeah. Well, well, this this will be a
running this is our new product and
model debate. It's Google and OpenAI's
ad. It's less exciting, I'll admit.
Okay. Let let me ask you one last
question on this segment, then we'll go
to break.
>> Um,
OpenAI, Sam Alman in particular, has
said that advertising is sort of the
last resort for a company. Um, put it
into context. This is a company again
trying to build AGI and um you know if
Sam believed that at one time what do
you think it says about the company that
is doing this now?
>> I think
it should again as per the earlier
conversation I think 2026 they have to
show promise on the revenue side and
beyond subscriptions. So I think he has
to I think like what all the AI cloud
personal devices and whatever else is
going to take time. So this is the most
direct way. But I genuinely think if
you're Sam Alman and next time you're on
he's on the pod you should I hope you
ask him like I think I would believe
that my AI system can deliver great ads
better than anyone else and that will
bring value to people's lives and that
will bring value to businesses and it
will kind of keep just thinking about
travel and hospitality like hotels got
to find you. You find the right hotel,
you book with them, they make money on
you, they pay OpenAI to help find the
customer, everyone's happy. So, if you
truly deliver great personalized
advertising, which potentially I think
they can, I like I'm surprised he's so
kind of cavalier about like it's, you
know, last resort. It's not like kind of
>> a long time ago.
>> Yeah. Yeah. No, but but I I want him to
come out and just frame it as we're
going to deliver you the best goddamn
ads you've ever seen and you're going to
be thanking us for more ads and and
again, Instagram has certainly shown
that's possible. I think if I was him, I
would start taking that that kind of
line of of thinking on the public or
public speaking on this.
So, the best argument that I heard in
favor of OpenAI's ad plan came from
Brett Taylor, the OpenAI chair, uh,
whose episode I recorded here at Davos.
It'll be live on the feed in a couple of
weeks. Uh, but I'll spoil this part for
people because I think it's pertinent
and worth talking about. He basically
said when you're a company like OpenAI,
um, people are going to get a lot of
benefit out of it and you're not
necessarily cut in on the benefit all
the time. Somebody uses GPT 5.2 too pro
to like solve some major business
problem. Uh maybe they paid you $20 a
month for it. So you got to find ways to
make money, you know, and this is one
way that's shorefire and has proven
itself. So I think that's a pretty good
argument.
>> Yeah, I I think it has to be diversified
in some way, especially on the consumer
side. But um yeah, I think we're going
to this is going to be a bigger topic. I
think we're all going to be seeing ads
and this isn't going to be a Netflix pay
five bucks extra to avoid ads. I think
it's too valuable an opportunity for
them to actually try to gate or like
tier it out maybe at the $200 level or
something like that, but I think we're
all going to be getting sponsored
recommendations from our digital
companions very soon.
>> Okay. Well, uh, let's go to break and
after the break, I definitely want to
talk a little bit about Apple because
Apple I predicted just like so your big
prediction this year was that, you know,
the agent thing is going to break out.
Uh, my big prediction this year was that
Apple's going to have its best year
ever. Uh, and it's certainly looking
like that's the case. So, let's talk a
little bit more about Apple's revived AI
strategy right after this. And we're
back here on Big Technology Podcast
Friday edition with Ranjan Roy of
Margins. Ranjan,
>> big news. Uh, Apple
>> Apple's going to pin. Okay, maybe they
won't, maybe they will, but let's talk
about the story. The information says
Apple is developing an AI wearable pin.
Uh, the pin is going to be the size of
an Air Tag that is equipped with
multiple cameras. Wow. A speaker,
microphones, and wireless charging. The
device could be released as early as
2027. Such a product would position
Apple to compete more effectively with
OpenAI, which is planning its own AI
powered devices, and Meta, which is
already selling smart glasses that offer
access to its AI assistant. Do you think
this is a good sign for Apple? I will
give them credit that they're trying new
things and experimenting with AI, even
though the pin has been an object of
much mockery and derision given its
early uh flame outs in a couple of
different formats.
Humane pin fell so Apple could rise is
what the story will be because we've
we've talked about this even I'm during
the humane pin conversation I think both
of us at least acknowledged it was
interesting for me the most exciting
part of this is I mean I've been saying
this for years like the form factor of a
phone that's a square in your hand as
kind of like the beall end all of
devices has gotten really boring. So,
anything that innovates it, I think it's
why the meta ray bands have been so
interesting and exciting for me. So, I'm
team pin. Someone's going to make a
useful pin. I actually was looking at
there's like a something called plaude.
It's like a card size dictation thing.
Um, I don't know. like I I dictate all
day long um on my AirPods with my
iPhone, but I I think the camera side
what exactly it's going to try to be
doing, it's all it's all interesting to
me. So, I am excited for the pin.
>> All right, here is the thing that really
stood out to me. Uh, of course, you
know, the information story says Apple's
development is in the very early stages
and could still be cancelled and it's
planning to m manufacture roughly 20
million units at launch. Guess how many
lifetime Meta Raybands glasses, the most
successful quote unquote AI wearable
ever has sold. Guess how many units it
sold? 2 million. So, Apple is believing
that 10 times the amount of people that
have bought Meta Rayban's lifetime will
want to buy this pin.
>> I don't think it's unreasonable though,
20 million. Again, you call it call it
199 bucks or something. I don't think
this is going to be like the $7 million
Apple fold folding phone that I will
still try to buy, but it's, you know,
like this is going to be probably like
an entry level. Yeah. So, that's what
I'm hearing. 7 million. I'm I'm
sarcastic for that
>> standing by that reporting.
>> Um [laughter] I uh No, I think if it's
an entry-level price again and it's why
my lovehate relationship with Apple
extends beyond Siri like ecosystem
capture is Apple is mastered. So like
here's this new device. If it's pretty
good at a reasonable entry price, I
think they're going to get a lot of
people trying it. 20 million is high,
but I think it could be I think it could
be a winning device.
>> I mean, I like that Apple is trying,
right? This is the thing that you want
to see from Apple. You want to see
initiative and the story actually was
very interesting because it shared a
number of different AI products that
Apple's working on and just seeing it
all in context was interesting. So it
says Apple's PIN joins a growing
portfolio of AI powered products the
tech giant has under development
including AirPods equipped with enhanced
sensors, a security camera, smart
glasses, and augmented reality glasses.
Apple is also working on a home product
featuring a small display, speakers, and
a robotic swiveing base. A design with a
heavy emphasis on AI features. That
device could be released as soon as this
spring. Man, like Apple, the company
that once seemed to like ship like one
product every bunch of years, starting
to sound like Amazon now. The throw
spaghetti at the AI device wall and just
try to make it work.
>> Yeah, you're right. Do you know I'd
forgotten that there are Alexa glasses?
Like Amazon really just stuffed Alexa
wherever it could find. And like
>> I mean once they put made the Alexa wall
clock, it was all over.
>> Yeah.
>> And refrigerator and microwave. But but
in reality though, like I think Apple's
still got to prove it can make an AI
enabled device and we're going to get
into what that actually is looking like
at the company. But I I have been slowly
switching back to Alexa across my house.
I had made the switch to HomePods and
Siri uh couple of years ago and now I
bought the Echo Show after actually I
think what was his name from Amazon
listening to your episode
>> P. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. listen to that. Got
the one of the Echo Show five, I think
the wall photo photo frame looking
thing. Um, so it's just the it's night
and day versus where it is today. So, so
make the AI work is going to be critical
to any of these cuz you imagine you get
your PIN and it functions at the level
of what Siri does today and you're just
like, now what? Now what?
>> Right. Are are you down with Alexa Plus?
It's It's getting pretty good. I have it
in my kitchen. I actually talk to it
more. It's gotten It's really good at
pulling up YouTube videos, I found. So,
which is really cool when you're
cooking, like,
>> you know, give it a request, music video
of something, some really specific
Patriots highlights, whatever. And it it
it nails it. It gets a right video,
starts playing it. You can tell it to
stop, get something else. So that asking
questions in general, it's it's getting
there. It still hallucinates sport
scores very weirdly, which should be the
most solvable problem, but other than
that, I'm liking it.
>> Yeah, it's working well for me, too. I
integrated my calendar with it, so I
say, "Hey, what am I doing today?" And
it answers. Um, I think the thing is
just getting people to understand what
they can do with these assistants is
going to be the hard thing because you
know I often just fall back on play some
music and
>> well
>> um and we'll see
>> actually do you think Alexa plus can be
the dark horse for digital companion? I
feel people had the their first oh my
god
>> for the digital companion derby
>> listeners Alexa Ron John's Alexa said
I'm flattered to be considered for the
digital companion
>> Alexa stop please [laughter]
digital companion derby
>> well I mean there you go clearly it
would be it sound it sounded very eager
to help you
>> that was pretty good that was pretty
good so [laughter]
yeah I got to be careful on any of those
kind of prompts right now. But but yeah,
overall I think in terms of like new
devices, I I'm excited Apple's at least
trying. I don't know what they're going
to do, but I'm excited they're trying.
>> Yeah. And I was going to say the thing
that I I really think is important is
the assistant inside, right? And uh this
is sort of uh what this was what Deis
told me about glasses. That was like I
went into this interview basically
saying I think the headline here is
going to be AI glasses. Um, and and I
felt that Deus really answered this this
uh somewhat uh conclusively about the
size of Google's bet on AI glasses
because it's massive. He talked about
like the various attempts to make smart
glasses. And he goes, "The thing it was
missing was a killer app." And I think
the killer app is a universal digital
assistant uh that's with you helping you
in your everyday life and available to
you on any surface on your computer, on
your browser, on your phone, but also on
devices like glasses when you're walking
around the city. And I think it needs to
be seamless and knows each of those
contacts and understands each of those
contacts around you. And I think we're
close now. He says it's uh one of the
most exciting projects we're working on
and it's one of the things I'm
personally working on, making smart
glasses really work. Uh that that to me
was basically a fullthroated endorsement
of the smart glasses as the form factor
here. And
you know, you talked about what happens
if the pin doesn't have a you know, has
like modern day Siri in it. It's not
going to work. And so what Demis is
saying is like, yeah, we can make this
work. I think the news is that it's
going to ship this year. Google's AI
glasses. Um and they believe they have
the assistant there.
>> So are you
>> that could be a determiner? Are you team
glasses or team pin in the end?
>> What What is the form factor?
>> I don't know. It's really hard for me to
to want one of these things. Maybe I'm
team AirPods. I like AirPods a lot
better than anything else, which I which
makes me excited for OpenAI's device,
actually.
>> Yeah, that's true. I mean, they're But
we're all so used to them and they're
natural. But I remember when AirPods
first came out, it was actually not
common to constantly see people just
walking around with kind of like
wireless earbuds and then they just made
it totally normal. So I think there I
don't know. I I'm team pin even though I
currently enjoying my glasses, but I
don't wear prescription glasses either.
though at certain point I would either
have to be wearing sunglasses indoors or
have just kind of like fashion glasses.
So I think maybe that's what makes me
lean team pin.
What happens if Apple's pin takes off
because it just makes a cool pin and the
assistant inside is Siri but Siri as a
container for Gemini. So, Apple creates
the killer app, but it's Google's
assistant or based off of Google's
assistant,
>> which is what's happening, isn't it?
>> Yes. Although, we did get we got a good
uh reader email um that uh pushed back a
little bit on what I said last week
about how like this is Google getting
user behavior from Apple. You know, it's
possible that Apple just uses Gemini as
like a backbone to build its own app and
then walls off that data from going back
to Google. And I overlooked that last
week. So, I thought that was really good
uh listener feedback and just wanted to
mention that this week.
>> I think the one thing about the
announcement this week around kind of
enhancements to Siri, which I would say
the winning part of it is it's codenamed
Campos, which I don't know.
>> Talk a little bit about about what
they're doing.
Yeah. So again like let's move beyond
what is powering it even though it's
reportedly Gemini but it's more what it
will be doing and again being able to
one of the big things that this
reporting lean into is that again that
idea of like tapping into data across
your phone tapping into apps across your
phone to try to leverage that context.
That actually worried me a bit because
as we've all seen and remember the uh
what's her name from Last of Us who did
the ad, Bella Ramsey ads that were like
supposed to do all this a year and a
half ago I think now. I think that was
this a year ago at the Super Bowl. Um
none of it worked. That is a hard
problem to solve. like going through all
these disparate data sets and trying to
like understand or like vectorize them
properly to be able to make an make them
accessible is difficult. So like just
making one standalone basic experience
that just answers some questions for you
like start there guys just just make it
work. This worried me. I I I've been
getting excited after last week and this
actually kind of got me a little
nervous. No, but this is if I read it
right, they're actually going to turn
Siri into a chatbot, right? So, um I
think that is actually the foundation
experience that all these companies have
been able to build and you'll be able to
chat with them.
>> Well, no, no, but but that part it
already is theoretically a chatbot like
you're supposed to be able to have kind
of turns and instructions back and
forth. So, so to me I saw it a few
places and again here at the exact it's
like add features including the ability
to analyze oncreen content and tap into
personal data and they keep talking
about this universal search that right
now when Siri kind of does a little bit
of web results or pulls up relevant apps
or starts like it does it a little bit
that getting all of that and doing it
very well but again I think that's like
a pretty hard problem to solve versus
just making
just just getting on par with JPT and
Gemini and Claude and everything else at
the consumer level just making all that
work. I think trying to say again I
think when is my flight is going to be
the question everyone will ask first and
it better damn get it right otherwise
like they they're going to have some
serious problems.
That that is a a question that I do not
have the answer to uh right now whether
it's with Siri or any app where where uh
when is my flight because uh looks like
mine is going to head right into this
massive snowstorm we have hitting New
York. So um start with Davos and with
Davos I think I think I'm now a
permanent resident uh here. So I think
I'll just be filming our podcasts and
recording them from from the Davos and
uh situation. should be fun.
>> What is Davos like? Do you have any idea
when it's not quote unquote Davos? When
it's not
>> world beautiful ski town, uh the the
beautiful ski town there, the that
sidewalk that I talked about uh is
actually uh you know, you can take it
between two lifts onto two different
mountains that the you know, the town
that is on either end of the town, city,
whatever it is. Uh, and I did manage to
uh get out to one of the mountains on
Wednesday morning. You know, you can do
this half-day ski pass. And I did that
and it was really lovely and beautiful.
And um the only hiccup was I thought I
was going down the red, which is in
between the blue and the black diamond
or yeah, the black uh the black trail.
And I it was one of those things where I
was like, "All right, just go. Don't
think about it." You know, let your body
take you. And then I like realized that
I was on a black trail and pin wheeled
my way down that slope. So a
>> AI could not help you uh navigate that
one. [snorts]
>> No. No. AI or my legs? [laughter]
>> Well, I think the the ultimate flex is
going to Davos when it's not World
Economic Forum time and definitely
dropping that you're in Davos at that
time because that's when the real Davos
people go. So maybe I'll try to schedule
that.
>> Yeah. One of the nice things on the
slope was it was all locals because
they're like this is like the one week
where the slopes are free because all
the tech and you know policy people have
taken the hotels and they're they're
down there like a bunch of dummies and
meanwhile we have our local mountain
>> uh empty. So it was really was some of
the best skiing I've done for sure.
>> All right. All right. I I'm going to
need to try that off off seasoned. Not
offseason, but offconference Davos.
That's the goal.
>> Other than that's still number one.
>> Yeah.
>> Let's have the first big technology
summit in Davos off season. Uh
>> yeah,
>> not offseason, off off
>> conference. Off conference
>> and just uh call it the real Davos. I
think we could start a movement, get the
entire harness harness hive out for a
great meet and greet. Someone on YouTube
comment said we should call it the
harness horde, which I also like.
>> I like that better than hive. That's
kind of a more aggressive kind of like
getting out into the world. So, harness
horde.
>> That's right.
>> We see you.
>> We see you. All right, Ranjan, thank you
so much for joining as always. Great
speaking with you.
>> All right, see you next week. Hope your
flight uh gets back in.
>> It's uh it's highly unlikely, but I I I
think I have the nice plan B. So, all
right. Thank you, Ranjan. Thank you
everybody for listening and watching.
We'll be back on the feed on Wednesday
likely with Joel Pino, the chief AI
officer at Coher. We had a great [music]
conversation here about the cutting edge
of AI research, where the biggest
problems are, uh how the [music]
industry is tackling them, and then how
uh the AI field is putting current
applications uh current technology into
practice. I think you're going to like
it a lot. And again, if you've missed
the Demis conversation, it's only a half
hour. Definitely recommend you check
that out. That's on the feed. Thank you
so much for listening and watching, and
we'll see you next time on Big
Technology Podcast.