Fear Buying AI & Automation Stocks — With Downtown Josh Brown

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2024-10-16

YouTube video id: jnTbF_v0Z4U

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnTbF_v0Z4U

let's talk automation the big Tech trade
and the state of the economy with the
one and only downtown Josh Brown that's
coming up right after this welcome to
Big technology podcast a show for
cool-headed nuance conversation of the
tech world and Beyond we're joined today
by Josh Brown the CEO of ver Holz wealth
management the host of one of my
favorite shows the compound and friends
he's also a CNBC contributor and the
author of a great new book you weren't
supposed to see that Secrets every
investor should know Josh great to see
you welcome to the show
so great to be back thank you Alex thank
you for being here um I think this is
your third time on the show so we always
appreciate having you on this time we're
going to talk about your book to begin
with and then in the second half we're
really going to go through all the big
tech companies including your
perspective on companies like Nvidia
Amazon and Apple so folks should stay
tuned through the entire uh show to get
Josh's thoughts on what's going on with
the big Tech trade and these big tech
companies in particular but let's start
with the book there were so many um
perspectives in there about the market
that I read and was like okay now it
makes sense taking a step back and we're
going to talk about Co in a second but
let's just start with the big Tech trade
what you really say is something that
stems from automation or fear of being
automated which I thought was a very
interesting perspective on it so I'm
just going to read from this is from a
blog post that you include within the
book and sorry I'm going to read your
book and out loud and maybe you should
do it I don't know but I'll try it this
way we'll see how it goes do you say
we're in an age where we're being told
AI is about to start writing its own
software machines are going to be trying
legal cases and diagnosing illnesses
writing songs and architecting buildings
giving Financial advice and driving our
vehicles every day more articles about
this or that breakthrough there are no
limits there are no protections it's
bordering on lawlessness people have
never felt more ill- at ease about their
own reason for existing and this is
manifesting itself in trillions of
dollars being thrown at of course the
companies that are doing all this
Automation and behind all this AI
Facebook Google Uber Nvidia Apple Amazon
Alibaba the list goes on so let me ask
you this to begin with do you think that
this is really fear of automation or
just that this is where the economic
growth is going in the economy because
we haven't yet seen a decline in let's
say employment because of
automation yeah I think that there any
time that we're going through a wave of
disruptive technology this sort of thing
is prevalent but I think AI is different
than all previous waves of Technology
because I think everybody immediately
grasps how much of their time is spent
doing things that if any any other means
of getting those things done were
possible the employer would default to
those other means so so this is like not
new but um you know obviously there were
people that were by hand running
calculations and then calculator came
along so I'm not breaking a new ground
here but I think in the case of AI its
ability to it's its ability to uh
effectively ape humanity is what sets it
apart from prior waves of technology so
I think that that kind of like
uncertainty that all right well what's
going to be my place in this world if
this this new technology is so good at
doing what I do and and doing it faster
um this is not about being replaced by a
computer at this point everyone's very
comfortable in the world of computers
this is about having someone's Essence
at work be distilled down into an
equation and the equation doesn't need
Healthcare um so like that that's why I
think there's that sense of for boting
and I think like a certain portion of
the population is smart enough to
understand new jobs will be created as a
result of this we don't know what they
will be or your job at your company is
going to morph into a different version
of that and you're going to be empowered
to get a lot so there is a portion of of
the population that understands that but
then there's a portion of the population
where it's just like well uhoh you know
what what what is this mean for my
future my ability to earn a living uh
maybe I don't want to change the way I
do my job or maybe I don't want to
switch Industries uh or maybe I'm not
comfortable having more and more of my
work require me to have a co-pilot
riding alongside of me and for those
people I do think there's some element
of like allocating to technology because
it's like well if this is going to
replace me can't beat him might as well
join him and so that was what that post
was about interestingly I wrote it in
2017 um way before chat GPT or AI were
on everyone's lips so in the book I I
wanted to bring that up to the present
and uh you know one of the things that's
held up really well is that we might be
in the first fear-based investment
bubble ever normally when you have an
investment bubble it's greed in this
case there's an element of I better
invest in this um and so that's what I
thought was really different about this
time around I'm going to push back on
your idea here but first I want you to
tell uh one of my favorite stories in
the book which is that you had a friend
who's a grer yeah and what
happened friend of a friend and what
happened to them when they started to
see big Tech encroaching on their
territory so somebody relay this story
to me I think the it's a it's a guy that
owned a bunch of grocery stores in
Suburban New Jersey and when he saw
Amazon getting into delivering food it
was like oh okay uh I may maybe instead
of putting all this capex into my
supermarkets I'd be better off just just
buying Amazon stock and uh again this
might be 2014 or 2015 and I think he's
okay now I think did fine I haven't
check I haven't checked in with the
person who told me the story but I would
imagine if he were allocating to Amazon
rather than spending money on his own uh
capex to improve his Supermarket he's
probably gotten a much higher rate of
return on on his investment and I told
that story as sort of a metaphor for the
way a lot of people were thinking in
those in those days
right fear-based investment cycle which
is again talking about how you've been
able to sort of take some of these
broader themes and put them into terms I
wasn't fully uh thinking about like
that's one of them but now comes the
push back right which is that yes you
could say that and maybe this is
individual investors have that fear and
they are pushing this way um in the
stock market but when you think about
what's actually happening in the economy
the story that I think the tech Giants
would tell and I don't think it's an
entirely illegitimate story is that they
are building the platforms that are
enabling broader economic growth for
everyone whether that's supplying
co-pilots or AI or even cloud computing
right because of what they're building
we have an economy that is growing and
the economy is growing quite nicely you
know people were talking about the fact
that we were going to be in recession
now or not in recession and so yes a lot
of the growth is going to ACR to the
companies building these platforms that
sort of are the Catalyst for the growth
economy
but we still have a growth economy and
so maybe it's it's not push back we we
agree yeah totally agree with you okay I
I I don't I don't think I don't think
that what I was trying to convey is that
this is the end and AI is going to put
everyone out of a job I was trying to
convey the sense of for boing that
people seem to have been feeling at the
earlier stages of this rally in 16 17 18
um this is really the dawn of This
Magnificent 7 idea back then they were
calling them the Fang stocks but it's
the same kind of thing um Tesla wasn't
yet a part of it and it wasn't really
about AI it was just more about you know
you own a business whatever you do let's
say it's a pharmacy or you know let's
say it's like a shipping and logistics
company or whatever it is and then
you've got this company that's got a
trillion dollar market cap at the first
time ever and just endless cash flows
hundreds of billions of dollars in cash
uh tens of billions in in cash flow
every quarter and anything that you're
doing if they want to at the snap of a
finger they can just build it better
faster and make it so that you no longer
have a livelihood that has not happened
to everyone in the economy but it
certainly has happened to people in the
economy and nobody knows when it's their
time and if you look at what Amazon is
doing with Pharmacy for example you
understand that um um the neighborhood
uh uh
pharmacist's uh livelihood is now
probably on the clock and it's not just
the neighborhood pharmacist all you have
to do is look at a chart of CVS which is
in a 60% draw down from a tie or look at
Walgreens boots Alliance which is in a
90% draw down these companies are going
away as we speak Walgreens stock is
crashing on the market today uh they
said that one in four stores are
unprofitable
that's unbelievable in 2015 that was a
$90 stock and today 9 years later it's a
$9 stock and it's not
coincidental that we now have a
situation where comp opportunistic
companies like hims and hers as an
example or row are utilizing the cloud
and they're
utilizing uh and they utilizing
technology to reach a huge audience of
people that are just as happy to get
their
uh drugs delivered to them as they were
to walk into a CVS and maybe
accidentally buy a candy bar on the way
out like that that when when you look at
that as a as a business owner and you
recognize how powerful both Walgreens
and CVS were across America not that
long ago 100% you're you're nervous and
so it's not that the economy is in
trouble it's that people feel as though
their personal livelihoods
are potentially in trouble and it's hard
to know where the next disruption is
coming from and who's going to be
affected and it's you know it's happened
before it's not first time in history
but it's it's a legitimate concern that
people have right and hence they invest
in big Tech because that's the sure
thing well yeah I mean you you say you
say to yourself well I might be out of
work but at least I'm going to make some
money uh investing in this disruption
and uh it's not crazy so on the on the
Walgreens front I kind of blame
Walgreens for this not the internet I
mean you open yourself up to A
disruption when your experience is bad
and you know you think about like a
Dwayne Reed store which intentionally
designs itself as confusing so you do
find those candy bars before you get
what you need and no wonder people would
rather shop on the internet so a lot of
these old school Industries I mean I
obviously it's it's troubling what's
happening to them but it's like always
there's always two sides of this which
is a yes the internet is causing trouble
for you but also B if you were better at
what you did people would stick with you
I'm curious I'm curious what you think
had CVS so CVS spent like huge amounts
of money to buy uh Etna and to buy KARK
so bought buy an insurance company buy a
pharmacy uh Pharmacy benefits manager
and basically ver take take a vertical
approach to what was obviously going to
be a consolidating industry those deals
did not work out well um the synergies
never showed up Etc regulatory headaches
had they instead said instead of taking
$70 billion doing this m&a we're going
to cannibalize ourselves we're going to
close half our stores we're going to cut
our dividend we are going to suspend our
earnings guidance for the next 36 months
and in instead we are going to build the
definitive way that people are going to
get their drugs we're going to have
drones and we're going to have our own
shipping and Logistics and we are going
to revolutionize this industry I don't
think the stock makes a new all-time
high on that news now in hindsight we
say well they should have invested and
they should have it's really really hard
to cannibalize yourself in the face of a
a a a a competitive threat it it's
obviously in hindsight sometimes the
right thing to do really hard in the
moment to make the decision that that's
what you're going to do especially when
you have a shareholder base in the
public markets that's counting on you
know reliability and and dividends Etc
so that's I from my perspective I don't
even know what they could have done
differently I I have an idea so this is
one of my favorite Jeff bezos's Clips
may be my favorite Jeff basos clips and
I'll try to recite it decently for
memory but basically he's sitting down
with the financial report reporter who's
trying to pin him down on whether
they're an internet business or whether
they're a brick and mortar business
because they have a website but they
were building all these warehouses and
the warehouses kept showing up on the
balance sheet and this reporter keeps
pressing Bezos on it he goes internet or
physical company and Bezos looks at him
and literally says internet schnet we
don't care what bucket you put us in
we're going to be the best company
serving customers and it doesn't matter
what category we're in that will be our
competitive advantage so I think with
the CVS honestly um or Walgreens
whatever it might be if they would have
taken the money they invested in that or
whatever whatever they they were doing
with their business plan and said all
right we are going to pay our cash years
double we're going to you know maybe
spend some money to to design our stores
better we're going to have competitive
hiring process because now these people
are being well paid so we're going to
attract better candidates and we're
going to make people feel good when
they're in our stores as opposed to like
you know wanting to get out of them as
fast as they possibly could like it's no
coincidence that Amazon built a store
that the technological innovation is you
don't talk to a person you scan in you
take what you want and you walk out and
it's send to a bill like they saw that
pain and that's how Amazon gets ahead
simple oldo business stuff the guy that
developed the touchless technology for
Amazon's retail uh was just pushed out
of the company and they are closing a
lot of those Amazon ghost does um
because
there just didn't seem to be anything
magical that made people want to go to
them so I agree but I do agree with you
those stories are a horrible experience
right um I just I just make the point
that it's not obvious in the moment that
the right thing to do is to trash your
earnings projections and do this radical
overhaul and reinvestment when you are
running a company with tens of thousands
employees and you're not you know these
are not tech-savvy people by Nature it's
it's it's not like uh it's not like
these chains are being run by former
Microsoft Engineers so it's it's it's
it's a tough thing and if it's tough for
uh Fortune 500 companies imagine how a
regular business person must feel when
they're being told like oh you have to
compete know not only do you have to
compete with you know the local store
across town you have to compete with
like uh Seattle's best it's really
that's really unsettling but this is
this is my point here which is that I
think that these companies cannot
compete with tech companies by being
more Tech and maybe that limits their
growth over time the only way to to
possibly compete with big Tech and to
compete with AI is to be more human
right it's to make people feel good like
that's something that technology has a
really tough time with you're about
expences you're right about that but uh
they to that's what they told the
independent book sellers uh 20 years ago
that's they said lean into like how much
your customer loves the experience the
the problem is twofold the customer
might love bookstores but only
occasionally when they actually want
something conveniently that's never
going to be the best option uh and also
Americans don't read books anymore which
we can talk about if you want to yeah
but we
definitely drugs it didn't work exactly
I mean yeah I I think yes some verticals
might have been declining but um yeah
it's just really tough to compete with
these companies based on technology and
it it's definitely interesting that
Amazon did uh you know is pulling back
on this go experiment although maybe
there'll be some licensing down down the
road but I think they definitely seized
on the pain that the consumer was
feeling most which is that I mean I'm
sure you've had it you're like waiting
for you have to go to a meeting you need
one thing you're like all right I'm
going to quickly pop into this Walgreens
next thing you know you're like 15
minutes late because that line just
moved so slow let I'll I'll see you
Walgreens and I'll and I'll raise you
the self checkout lane at the
supermarket oh man which is ninth circle
of hell nobody knows how to do it we've
had these things now for 15 years nobody
it's it it's like it's like watching
people land on an alien planet and try
to figure out how to start a fire no
doubt and they now need two people at my
superm market to help everybody at those
self checkout Lanes those two people
could have just been cashiers and we
could have called it even so yeah I know
it's true I mean that's where I get most
of my podcast listening done I'm too
speed waiting to check out stoping shop
so um so let me ask you one last part
about this which is that okay let's say
we do so let's say we do go from this
like uh era where people end up having
their work automated or taken over by
these conglomerates or technology how
does that shift the nature of our
economy is it increasing inequality or
what exactly does it do to I don't know
so so you know more about this than I do
but like let's say hypothetically you
have a job you're
coding um at Microsoft and then they put
this thing on your computer that helps
you and all of a sudden you're able to
code twice as much over the course of 20
business days in a month as you were
three months prior because you become
really Adept at utilizing these these AI
tools and you become better at your job
the company becomes more efficient and
everyone's happy but then like what what
happens after that cuz now there's a new
Baseline on how much work you're
expected to complete um like it's not
like you'll you can't you can't go
backwards you can't say all right I'm
going to revert back to okay so now
everyone's doing more getting paid the
same doing more and then all of a sudden
that that that ride along AI That's
watching you work and helping you and
offering suggestions all of a sudden it
starts dictating to you because they
improve that software or the software
improves itself because it's generative
and it's seen enough and it knows where
Alex continues to make mistakes and
before you even get a chance to to make
that mistake it's already in front of
you either telling you what to do right
or doing it for you before you can mess
it up and that it reminds me a lot of
the road toward uh
full self-driving or or self-driving or
or autonomous vehicles every time I
lease a car it's a little bit
judger it's got a little bit more
opinions about how I shift lanes and I'm
you we're used to it and we're getting
these haptic little Taps and buzzes on
our elbows on our asses and the steering
wheel shakes a little and we're probably
becoming better drivers but also we're
getting very accustomed to having
somebody be in charge of us
and it's not going to be long before the
car is just better than us of course it
will be why wouldn't it be and so I
don't know how long that takes did the
haptics get like stronger um but like
you know what I mean or do those noises
where you're not breaking fast enough
and it tells you no no no no really
break really Break um so again I'm not
painting this as a negative thing we
could all probably be more productive if
we're sitting in a car rather than
holding the steering wheel for an hour I
I totally agree with that my point is
the
expectations on the part of our
employers are just going to go up as we
become more Tech enabled so we're doing
more not necessarily being paid more and
many of us are going to reach the point
where the quote unquote co-pilot
actually should just be the pilot and
again maybe that's great maybe that
frees us up we could all be painters we
could all go to Tahiti and and and and
paint and paint but like I'm I
understand the I understand the part in
people's minds where this is not
necessarily going to be great for them
personally oh without a doubt I mean I
wouldn't minimize that for a minute I
mean one my thought is that if we do end
up having effective co-pilots it won't
necessarily be you're doing twice the
work is that you're actually doing the
work you want to do and I mean that's
that's a great outcome as opposed to
like having cleanup code and like you
know build every like guess same same
thing like right now with open source
right a lot of the code is available but
you can just build on that instead of
having to build from scratch and you're
actually able to do things like there's
no software company who says um we have
a limited road map once we build that
we're good like they always every
software company wants more capacity to
do more things and so therefore like if
the AI can help code you can just end up
building more um in the best case
scenario are some people going to be on
the street because of it yes yes are
they probably going to be on the street
because they're working at the worst
companies and not the best ones also yes
that's my perspective yeah and it and it
will happen with or without AI
eventually so I I I I definitely see
that and that's a best case scenario
what you're outlining it's like all
these people can take the 20 or 30 or
50% of their job that's just wrote kind
of like just like going through the
motions because somebody has to do it
and they could throw that out and let
some some other let that get done via
technology and they can do the other
half of their job that they really are
appreciated for and the part that makes
them creative and unique the thing is
not everybody is a creative not
everybody wants to do something other
than root tasks there are a lot of
people who find comfort in that type of
work and that's what they want to do and
they're not suited for a world where
they get half their time back and
they're supposed to come up with
creative ways to impress their boss it's
just not it's not going to be a win for
everyone I agree I mean and you know I
think that there's another great Jeff
Bezos scene where he's uh with Walt
Mossberg at uh the recode conference and
he's talking about what it take us
Amazon's been doing this since the
mid-20s and I wrote about this in my
book about how they've sort of gone
automation before everybody else it's
always been a priority for basos and
he's sitting with Mossberg and talking
about how you're going to work at a
Hightech you're working at a tech
company you have to be prepared for that
type of change and he goes if you don't
you can find a different job that
doesn't value it as much he's like go
work in insurance and then he like
pauses and he goes well insurance now is
already becoming Tech enabled and
Mossberg is like well you have an iPad
but even more I think basos was thinking
one or two steps down the line which is
that you have um you you will have
machine learning that will be assessing
damage that we'll be doing predictions
and here we're we're here already like
what does an actuary do right does that
get taken over by technology so for me
yeah I think that like I'm not
celebrating this change um it's going to
be it will be hard in some ways um but I
I ultimately do think that the we we
live in the more optimistic scenario and
I also think that less less people are
interested in the rote work than we
might imagine I think if you think about
it people people some people might just
not want to work um but I do think if
you show up for a job some people are
going to be interested in doing
something meaningful and like copying
data one Excel sheet to another is not
the thing that makes them happy yeah I I
so I'm equally hopeful that um we're
going to unlock time for people and it
seems that the amount of work that you
have to do will always expand to fill
the amount of time that you have that's
just like no people don't in America
people do not sit around um so so I I
agree but one one other component of
this which let me just say that you
could be one of the big Tech Engineers
that take they have two jobs right they
in the work from home uh era they were
working for like Google and Facebook at
the same time so right we don't will be
able to figure it out say sorry for the
second so a little bit closer to home uh
there are now 10 different
companies in and then on top of which
these are startups but then on top of
which you're getting offerings from zoom
and Salesforce and big existing
Enterprise software companies but there
are 10 different companies specifically
building AI note taking for financial
advisers so I have 27 client facing
financial planners at my firm the most
valuable use of their time is talking to
clients like without a doubt if the more
time that the more FaceTime that they're
giving our clients the better and
anything that they're doing that takes
them away from that is not time well
spent for the most part but the thing is
in order to prepare for a meeting with a
$10 million family um that you're
managing money for and handling their
taxes and their insurance it's like
maybe 45 minutes to an hour worth of
prep before you go into that meeting you
have to go back and look over everything
that's already been done what's still to
be done what accounts have we open what
are the returns what so you have to
prepare you can't just walk into that
meeting like oh hey uh H H how's your
golf game this summer all right so
there's that then you do the meeting
it's an hour it could be two hours
depends on what's going on then you come
out of the meeting and there's probably
30 minutes to an hour of post
meeting um kind of debriefing of the
rest of the staff we need to open this
type of account we're doing a wire we're
funding this charity right now uh we
need to call this person's uh attorney
about some estate
paperwork the AI chat the AI chat bot
that's going to be a notetaker during
the meeting is now capable of prepping
my advisor within 5 minutes all of the
highlights of the last three calls
here's what you need to know then you do
the meeting and then you come out of the
meeting and that same uh piece of
technology is able to send an email to
everyone who is on the meeting here's a
summary here's what was said here's who
said it here are the action items and
not only can It summarize the action
items in an email it can actually send
instructions through the CRM to the
financial advisor's admin who will then
have to take action based on those this
is tremendous this is an incredible
thing that's going to make it so that my
advisers probably have an extra two
hours a day talking to clients rather
than you know dictating uh action items
I love this but then I had a second
thought which is right now we have a
junior advisor riding along On some of
of these calls that Junior adviser is
getting reps in these meetings listening
to the discussion and taking notes and
following up and executing all these
tasks
after when I don't need that person
who's probably a 24 year old getting I
don't know 85,000 in their first year
when I don't need that person and none
of the other firms need that person and
that goes on for 5 years you've kind of
hollowed out the way that you've
historically trained young advisers and
paid their salaries worthwhile to the
firm now what where do those people
enter our industry from who makes use of
them how do you how do you get money
back for the cost of supporting them for
the first couple of years because as you
know Alex there's no wealthy family
that's going to be happily assigned a
24y old advisor right you know absent
somebody that's a little bit more senior
so look it's an existential question for
just like how do we train entrylevel
people in this country if we're creating
endless amounts of software that can do
entry-level jobs better than a kid right
at a college can do and I'm sure we'll
solve it I'm sure they we'll come up
with something or we'll turn into Japan
for the next 30 Years where young people
have absolutely no hope for the future
and don't think that they will be able
to be as prosperous as their parents or
their grandparents it's I I don't have
the answer but I know it's the big
question okay I have two followup points
on that first the point that you made
made about the software that will take
the notes for financial advisors that
exists in every single discipline um not
necessar the software but the same
problem in the technological opportunity
just think medicine for example my
father just retired he was a podiatrist
he spent half his life doing paperwork
right and this it's going to be a thing
in the past like him having to sit in
the basement um filling out these
electon electronic medical records no
doctor is going to have to do that again
because this is all going to be
generative AI the doctors will simply
check the output and the list goes on in
every single profession Absol I think
that this is the benefit from this
versus like maybe there's like that
small percentage of people who enjoy
taking the you know doing the Note
review or enjoy doing the paperwork this
is going to be a huge benefit and I
can't believe I'm being this optimistic
about it but now thinking it through I
think it'll be a huge benefit now now
for for the junior junior uh entry level
work it's a I think it's a real issue um
but here's like two thoughts on that
first for a firm like your it's probably
going to be important to have a strong
bench of young Talent so even though it
might not pay off like right away there
might be some incentive for you to to
have them in in the what do I do what do
I do what do I do with them if uh if the
AI notaker that Salesforce provides me
or Zoom provides me or Microsoft
provides me is more useful and costs
nothing like what do I do what do I do
with that Junior person if I don't need
them in the meeting and how are they
going to learn to to be an adviser if
they're not needed in the meeting yeah
so there might be just more extended
training but I think the the the second
point that I wanted to make here and by
the way like maybe that's too sunny it
probably is too sunny now that I'm
saying it out loud but the second Point
here is that you know we do have
declining birth rate in the US and in
the developing world uh developed World
in general right and so you're just
going to have much fewer uh sort of
people seeking jobs in those entry in
those entry level Fields than we have
now and you know you might need the AI
the reason why Japan has pushed so hard
into AI automation um sort of the I
think you even talk about this in your
book The factories that are just like
lights out factories where you don't
have anybody is because they needed it
like in Japan they didn't have enough of
those young people seeking jobs and in
the US and in China in particular that's
going to be a major issue as we look 10
20 years in the future I guess the
question is the next I guess for me the
next five years yeah I mean they always
talk about how like in a technological
shift there's going to be pain and
that's probably what's going to happen
well listen I I I like to be optimistic
too and I I just I guess uh I guess just
from my perspective it's worth it's
worth bringing out both sides of this
yes companies are going to become
fabulously profitable as they Institute
all this amazing technology that's
coming down the pike and it's already
happening and of course we're going to
get rid of a lot of busy work that
people should not be doing anymore if
they don't need to 100% I agree but the
second order effect is like how do you
be an entry-level employee in the age of
AI we're going to find out yeah no I I
don't I don't think you're off base at
all I'm bringing that up it's going to
be a problem without a doubt and you
know you mentioned okay maybe if people
have their work automated they'll just
have a good life and they'll paint or
something like that uh but that sort of
brings us to the most interesting part
of the book at least from my perspective
where you write about what happened
during covid um when we had all the
stimulus and people were empowered and
um effectively basically people were
empowered to do whatever they want and
effectively the economy broke because of
it uh and yeah catastroph cat
paradoxically it's not great when
everybody has all the money they need
it's it's catastrophic for for
capitalism so I think I should just read
this this um section of the book because
it's so good and I like condensed a
little bit but you write capitalism felt
like it offered possibilities for
everyone for the first time ever this is
in the co times everyone had money
everyone had options there was a bull
market in people forming their own llc's
and starting companies a bull market and
sitting on their asses and doing nothing
a bull market Market in quitting jobs a
bull market in whatever they felt like
doing indulging their Hobbies accepting
flexible hours moving their residents
taking college classes while being
employed secretly having two full-time
employers quitting without quitting
being paid for waking up in the morning
taking extended periods of time in
between gigs making a big career change
whatever people wanted to do they could
do freedom on a previously unimaginable
scale and that was the problem
widespread Prosperity it turns out is
incompatible with the American dream the
one and only way our economy works is
when there are winners and losers that's
what we learned at the conclusion of our
experiment you weren't supposed to see
that now the genie is out of the bottle
for one brief Shining Moment everyone
had enough money to pay their bills and
the financial freedom to choose their
own way of life and it broke the economy
in half so this this idea that we could
end up in Utopia which a lot of people
especially folks like in the in the sort
of extreme um area of AI like the the
thinking parts of AI talk about
basically your perspective is we had
this already in covid when we gave out
stimulus people were empowered in a way
they never were before and it broke the
economy uh it got out of hand we had the
nft craze inflation and then effectively
the government was like let's restrain
this and break it and then you saw the
rise in interest rates and the attempt
to uh spark a a recession
you you really got to read the you
really got to read the full chapter of
that book um if if you not you uh if
you're listening to this listeners yeah
yeah because what I lay out is the sheer
amount of spending not just spending
stimulus so that's fiscal policy
monetary policy it was just it was so
endless it was like 20s something
trillion dollars plus 0% interest rates
Plus a raging stock market that allowed
anybody who wanted to to go public I
mean it was just like this once in
a-lifetime situation where we flooded
people's bank accounts with cash we
flooded people's 401ks with gains um the
value of suburban real real estate went
through the roof like just everything
all at once made people feel for the
first time ever everyone that they could
do whatever they wanted and the result
was 9% inflation in the United
States uh and that's just headline if we
got get into individual components
forget about it there are things that
quadrupled in price that'll never go
back again the UK had 11% inflation um
we we we we cannot ever again run this
experiment because effectively what
happened was the people who really hated
their jobs were able to just not show up
and do them so you would check into a
hotel and there was nobody to clean the
rooms
so they would say to you all right we're
the hotel's open CO's sort of over but
we don't clean your your hotel room you
had restaurants begging people doubling
the salary and then doubling again
begging people you had trucking
companies that couldn't find drivers the
ports shut down you could literally
couldn't move shipping containers
because people are doing like uh I I
fixed bicycles startup in their backyard
and
I listen it's not for me to say who
doesn't deserve to get their happy
ending that's not right all I'm saying
is the reason capitalism works is you
have people at the top of the Heap that
have already made it probably because
they killed themselves to get there and
then you have people who want to be
where they are and are willing to do the
jobs that are necessary in order to get
there so you have the super rich and you
have the lowest income households but
then you have this group in the middle
the middle class the middle class has to
otherwise it falls apart the middle
class can't ghost quit they have to show
up to their job and not only do they
have to show up to their job they have
to buy lunch next door to their
office they like they have to do these
things and if they don't if enough
people don't do these very normal things
everything breaks down and that's what
we went through we had an 18-month
period of just the most bizarre science
experiment and it turns out the American
dream doesn't work if we all get it at
the same time so and and again it's not
for me to be the Arbiter of who gets to
quit their job and and and start the
company of their dreams and who has to
show up for work I'm not saying that
that any one person should determine
that I'm just describing a situation
where you can't have everybody be in a
place where they feel fine about either
working or not right and it is crazy
that the Federal Reserve was basically
like we need to for try to force a
recession to get people back to work
they never said it but that was the
explicit policy aim they
we we need to crash this economy to get
people back to their jobs it's crazy
it's I mean it didn't work they weren't
able to do it thank God we we got
inflation down anyway uh despite their
efforts but they you know listen if uh
what's what's so wild is that um you
basically had people become professional
baseball card traders you had people
leave New Jersey and move to Montana
like not like two people like millions
of people did something completely
different for 18 months some people
became amateur Bakers some some people
myself became very casual alcoholics
like we just everybody got to like live
their version of I do whatever I want
now and one of the craziest things Alex
even like a year ago there's an element
of this that's still with us like I
remember going to I had to go to the
mall to do a return I was helping my
wife with something on like a Wednesday
at 10:00 in the morning and I look
around and the mall is full what the
hell are all these people doing you know
what they're doing they're walking
around with airpods taking customer
service calls while they shop and do
errands like that's like that's
literally what's going on it's still
going on so we're we're probably
permanently changed as a society as a
result of the the co period I don't I
don't see how we get everybody to forget
about it let me ask you this Josh do you
think this could have worked if we
didn't have the inflation but the
inflation is caused by it it's but okay
let's say that I maybe this is an an
impossible hypothetical and if it is
call me out on it but let's say that um
you know most of the inflation was
caused by the fact that the supply chain
was broken and we know it was broken
during Co that sh a container went from
from China to the US went from $2,000 to
$20,000 and that was reflected in
consumer prices um if we could find a
way to do this sort of policy that
allows people the flexibility to do what
they want and keep inflation in a
reasonable rate do you think it makes
sense because I'm also speaking as
someone who's you know one of those
peoples that did that career shift
started the podcast you know in August
2020 quit my job in May 2020 so like
that flexibility actually ended up being
quite good for me and I think you know
probably added to some economic activity
if we could have people find you know
the true yes you can turn customer
service into chat Bots and people are
satisfied with the outcome of those
interactions to a reasonable degree and
then if you can turn every McDonald's
and Starbucks into um a combination
kiosk vending machine which sweet green
is doing with salads right now in uh in
Manhattan go to the go to the uh one pen
Plaza a outlet of sweet green I own the
stock full disclosure it's a vending
machine they have a machine in there
that makes between 500 and 800 salads an
hour during the work week you order from
a screen and the Machine makes you a
salad and the calibrations of
ingredients and dressing and it's
perfect it's it's a it's a machine-made
Flawless chopped salad it's if you think
about how many people do you need to
make 500 salads dur during 12 to 2 p.m.
on a on a Monday I don't know is 15
people 20 people so if those people
don't need to be anywhere there anymore
because the kiosk is taking credit cards
cash isn't Changing Hands nobody has to
monitor the the salad assembly line
because it's a computer with with very
powerful Machinery attached like if
that's where this is all headed then
absolutely there's a there's a universe
in which we can um survive 10 to 15%
unemployment and still like have a a
fairly good economy I just think uh the
the the people that are not working but
want to work are not going to be happy
and look in the book I reference vaget
and if you haven't read player piano I
highly recommend this book immediately
after you read my book um Kurt wrote
this 70 years ago and it's it's it's
still relevant because it's about
Humanity
and so in in the in the future that
vaget envisioned back in the 50s
basically had white collar managers who
ran these massive industrial
conglomerations uh conglomerates and you
had uh basically people that used to do
something for a living and are no longer
needed and the ultimate result is an
uprising even though those people were
being cared for they weren't discarded
in the street they had homes built for
them they were fed they you know but
it's at a certain point
you feel just absolutely useless you
feel suicidal and that's when the opioid
starts like it's it's just not
realistic to think that the the version
of American and capitalism that you want
is a version where a lot of people could
just walk around talking to trees all
day it's it's just it's not good for the
soul people need to feel needed they
need to actually be needed and they need
to have a purpose and the purpose can't
can't just be have as much fun as you
can today it's just it's not it's not
workable it's you you have to be eating
mushrooms in San
Francisco um you know in a dorm room
conversation at 2: in the morning to
think that this is where things should
be going it's it's really not well I can
tell you a lot of the inspiration for
that perspective on where things should
be coming should be going uh does come
from those which is fine sessions and
then then wake up sober up and realize
that people need to be wanted and you
know this and I know this and you know I
look we we have 4,000 clients okay so we
talk to people that have done every
single thing for a living you can
imagine and we talk to people who
inherited money we talk to people who
were poor until they were 50 and
something finally happened for them we
talk to people that had early success in
their 20s and then lost it all and had
to get it back we've heard it every
version there is no
version of people who are happy and
satisfied with their life that has
anything to do with I wake up and do
whatever I want it's just that's not
that's that is not the story that we
ever hear the most satisfied people are
maybe not the busiest people but the
people who genuinely feel that they are
most counted on even if it's just by
relatives and I I just think that's
endemic to humanity it's always going to
be that way so it's a lot of fun to grow
your own weed bake your own bread um
drink seven nights a week whatever
people did during that period but it
literally could not have gone on longer
and if it did it would not have led to
anything good societally and uh you know
could point to Jan 6 could point to uh
the black lives ma matter and and the
responses to that um it just it when
people had too much time it was too much
time for us to look around at each other
and get into fights it's just it's not
great so I'm I I want I like full
employment I think it's better than hey
guess what the software does your job
for you and you have $5 million in Apple
stocks you never have to worry about
anything ever again I don't think that
the person you say that to is better off
two years
later we're here with Josh Brown he's
the author of you weren't supposed to
see that Secrets every investor should
know we've been talking a little bit
about the book in the first half second
half we're going to talk about some of
the big tech companies he's looking at
in the market more broadly we be we'll
be back right after this and we're back
here on big technology podcast with Josh
Brown he's the CEO of rol's wealth
management he also hosts the compound
and Friends one of my favorite shows
CNBC contributor and the author if you
weren't supposed to see that Josh let's
talk a little bit about the market
coming back uh here for the second half
so we also talk a little bit in the
first half about how um the FED tried to
force a recession well I think this was
supposed to be the year that that was
supposed to happen the S&P 500 is up 23%
year-to dat uh we've been hearing about
yeah recession hard Landing uh rates are
going down now inflation is lowering so
mission accomplished what do you think
well I so I had uh on the compound of
friends last week we had Dr David Kelly
who's uh probably the highest ranking
strategist at JP mortgage
and great job his perspect his
perspective is that the FED really had
nothing to do with it we had these
temporary uh Supply imbalances all over
the economy and we had all these labor
market issues again stemming from how
stimulated everyone was financially and
those things like work their way through
the system and reality came back and it
turned out that like you know the
economy kind of healed itself that I
mean that's like a stylized version of
what he was saying I'm not as smart as
him so I wouldn't disagree with him um I
think the FED does play a role but uh
there are a lot of people who think like
demand for capital is ultimately going
to get to where it needs to get to and
uh you know the FED can exacerbate the
Direction one one way or the other but
here we are to your point uh Alex at the
end of
2022 the idea that we would have a
recession and a hard Landing in 2023 was
effectively consensus this is the
unanimous opinion pretty much of Wall
Street strategists of mainstream
economists of CFO survey that they do at
Duke University like this was just what
people said it's it's happening like
this is it we're going to have the
hangover from the pandemic era stimulus
and there's nothing you can do about it
and we didn't and I think a I think a
big part of why we didn't was the
consumer ended up being more resilient
than we thought and it turns out we
don't really have an economy that's
highly dependent on manufacturing the
way that weuse used to so it's not like
you know you have a street with 10
people living on it and eight of them go
to work at the plant all day and when
the plant lays people off the economy
goes to it's just not it's just not
the version of America we live in right
now so that was helpful uh Services
driven economy is going to be less
susceptible to higher interest rates
it's not part of the manufacturing cycle
of booms and Buss and inventories and
okay says that the second thing is we
had this AI Genie come out of the bottle
and that nobody could have predict
predicted that maybe you could have uh
Powell couldn't have um certainly not
yeah so GPT hits in November on November
30th of
2022 coincidentally the stock market had
bottom two weeks prior we're celebrating
the two-year anniversary of the stock
market as we speak I don't know if you
know this most people don't NASDAQ is up
28% on the Year this year yeah it's
crazy it's the growth this year has been
out of control so that's all AI so uh so
we have a raging stock market we have
housing activity renewed because
mortgage uh mortgage rats are uh falling
finally and people feel less trapped in
whatever their situation is um we have
inflation moderating the FED has done
its first interest rate cut and they
started off with a a double cut and
they'll probably do another one uh in a
couple weeks and uh we have this
election that everyone was terrified of
and it looks like actually the out come
is going to be still up in the air but
probably lead to a divided government
which is positive for stocks
historically uh where no one party gets
to do a lot of weird in either
direction um and we'll get through this
election which is a big bad thing that
everyone's worried about and that'll
take place and God forbid we have an
inauguration where one side concedes
that'll be interesting um but so like a
lot of the negative potential catalysts
that we've been living in the shadow of
are fading doesn't mean b something bad
can't happen out of nowhere I'm just
describing the things that we were
terrified about uh and so that's really
that's really the story of what's
happening right now we've had earnings
growth this year we were already
supposed to have been in a recession as
of last year so it seems as though it's
like a it's a new bowl market and it's
two years old and in your book you
describ something called this Relentless
bid and you know basically that's
everybody's putting money into their
401k is traditional retirement is uh not
what it used to be that money 401K money
is going into equities and it's just
effectively coming into the stock market
month after month quarter after quarter
and that is relentlessly bidding up the
stock prices um and effectively has a
put in terms of how low it could be I'm
sure I'm butchering this a little bit uh
but basically yes we we are seeing
earnings growth but how much does that
Relentless bid have to do with the fact
that like we have gone through this
turbulence and the stock market has
grown the way that it has yeah so I I
don't want people to think that that's
like my justification for buying stocks
today is that 401K money is going to
just keep coming in and levitating the
market I wrote that in
2014 and uh originally so it was my way
of describing the process by which the
actual behavior of the stock market had
begun to change because of two things
one this wave of price sensitive money
by the way uh 401K is $1
trillion okay people are adding to that
11 trillion doll every two weeks when
they get paid they do not consult the PE
ratio of Apple it's an automated
decision the money comes in no matter
what's happening in the economy or with
politics or the weather or sports like
nothing enters people's thinking it's
just a wave of money and it keeps coming
in um the Boomers the wealthy Boomers
they don't even have to take money out
they just borrow against it like like if
a wealthy Boomer wants to buy a vacation
home these days the guy at Morgan
Stanley says okay no problem we'll uh
Here sign this paper we'll give you a
50% borrow against your treasury bonds
we'll give you a 30% borrow against your
stocks it's a non it's a non-
underwritten loan so it takes 5 Seconds
the only thing you have to do is not buy
more Securities with it you take the
money out of brokage account go buy the
house now you don't have to sell your
stocks and you have a second home boom
magic this is the the Securities based
lending is like the is like one of the
driving factors of people said Harry
there's a guy Harry Dent is a demography
guy and his big thing was in the year
2020 every baby boomer is going to turn
70 and they're all going to
simultaneously liquidate their
portfolios no it's actually not how it
played out now they borrow against their
portfolios they don't even pay capital
gains tax so you have that you have this
401K wall of money coming in and then
you have a new business model on Wall
Street when I wrote the piece 10 years
ago uh Morgan Stanley Merill Lynch now
Bank of America
um JP
Morgan uh UBS all the wealth management
units at the big uh investment Banks and
brokerages were converting their stock
Brokers into to financial advisors and
changing their comp model they were uh
trying to push them away from
commission-based
transactional brokerage business and
push them more toward fee based Asset
Management business and it worked and
one of the side effects of that is
financial advisors like myself are
building Financial plans for their
clients and the plan doesn't say to sell
stocks uh in fact when the market dips
the plan says hey actually you should be
buying more stocks and rebalancing
because it's going to make the the
probabilities for your client go higher
so you've got this automatic bid coming
from the wealth management side these
7030 6040 50/50 portfolios where when
stocks sell off bonds get sold stocks
get bought and the effect of these um
forces that I'm describing is a
dampening of volatility and it is a
acceleration of the correction process
so it's not that we don't have
Corrections um we do all the time they
don't last long because the wealth
manager with $50 billion under
management pulls the lever and there's a
firmwide rebalance across all of their
accounts and the wall of money from
401ks comes in and oh by the way
nobody's actually selling their
Securities for any reason they certainly
aren't selling it to to live on in
retirement so this is like profound
to to me I don't know how interested
your audience is in this but uh no we
are for sure it's it's if I could
anthropomorphize the market for a minute
I would just say it's like it's like a
new person the old Mr Market where
everybody was like on Tor hooks every
time something would go wrong everybody
would Panic nobody panics anymore they
Panic
by they look at the response to to
Israel being invaded look at the
response to the Ukraine being invaded
look at the response now Iran Iran's uh
I don't know within minutes of of
obtaining their first uh nuclear bomb
people panic by stocks when these things
happen it's it's crazy it is crazy but
it's happening when the there there was
that mini crash on on the beginning of
August you'll remember some something
went on in Asia I think where the market
dropped like 10% in a day uh was first
day of my vacation my son I talked about
this on the show um my wife and I we
landed in irel land uh where we were
spending a week and as soon as we got we
like did Redeye so we watched the Asian
markets collapse overnight and then this
was in in Japan something happened in
Japan anyway uh a second we get we get
on the ground I'm
like uh just go buy the S&P 500 and do
it as soon as you can and the Market's
up like very nicely since then yeah what
you're describing is the the Yen carry
trade so basically United States cut
interest rates and
Japan uh and and Japan raised interest
rates um they are terrified of inflation
for some reason so as a result of that
action all of a sudden there's this
thing called the Yen carry trade where
people are borrowing money in Japanese
Yen terms and they are using that money
to buy things like stocks and real
estate here in the United States Warren
Buffett uh is involved in the end carry
trade he sold Bonds denominated in Yen
and use that to fund the purchase of
Japanese equities so Japanese carry
trade is something that institutions and
hedge funds are using as a way of
obtaining cheap funding which leverages
you know their buying power and and uh
magnifies their returns so when the
Japanese raised rates and um United
States cut rates it was like a a blip in
the carry trade it was a margin call
some people had to sell some stuff and
then that had a ripple effect Japan had
a mini 1987 some of their biggest
publicly traded companies like mufg were
down 25% in a Flash which is obviously
terrifying and then here in the United
States we had this crazy wild
pre-market um where it people thought
like uh stocks were going to like open
up down 10% and keep going because the
muscle memory of that is still there
like people remember these panics these
crashes um what ended up happening was
it was the best buying opportunity of
the Year to your point and we didn't
hear from a single panicked person wow
not one yeah cuz there's no time cuz
even if you wanted to panic the market
went green like later that day like like
God damn
it so you know this and and I think it's
a great story that you told Alex because
it's um it's emblematic of just this
time that we're in right now there's a
higher proclivity to panic buy than
Panic sell yes okay we have about 10
minutes left let's quickly do Amazon
Nvidia and apple if you're up for it so
I own all three full disclosure yes uh I
I ask you I want to ask you this
question about Amazon so I was on uh
with you guys on the compound and
friends in July I believe and we had a
debate you and I about like whether
Amazon was looking up or not and you
kind of sold me on your viewpoint but I
had mentioned that there was some weird
things going on with Amazon culture lo
and behold September 16th Andy G he
comes out with the memo we're going to
do 5 days in the office from now on and
he also points out as this is the most
pointed admission of cultural problems
in Amazon history from a CEO he said we
have added more layers than we had ever
before and it's created artifacts that
we like to change that means
pre-meetings for the pre-meetings for
decision meetings a longer line of
managers feeling they need to review a
topic before it moves forward owners of
initiatives feeling less like they
should make recommendations because the
decision will be made elsewhere truly
day type of culture taking place in
Amazon um but obviously the you know the
company has existing assets that are
quite strong so what's your perspective
on the Amazon trade right now look I
think the expectations for Amazon are
very low and the stock is selling at uh
a discount to the multiple that sold at
in the before times in 2019 and they've
never ever gotten their premium
valuation back and uh you can't the same
for the rest of the uh Mega caps and
Tech uh meta looks outstanding right now
Nvidia looks outstanding um Amazon and
Tesla are probably the furthest away
from their 52e highs of that group of
stocks uh I think Apple made a new high
today uh so so Amazon is absolutely
being treated as though there were
issues there like I don't think when
they go into this next earnings report
people are expecting any sort of like
upside surprise or anything like that so
it's kind of in a weird place but you
know from my perspective that's why
there's an opportunity and uh you know
we just went through this cycle with
meta the stock was in a 75% draw down
people forget it's since I think more
than tripled
so when when companies have problems and
they address them and they admit to them
it's like the first step of like hey we
have to change something here so I don't
know how long it takes for for jasse to
get get his act together but uh I think
the Stock's going work no definitely I
mean maybe this memo that Jesse sent is
his year of efficiency memo saying that
the company needs to figure it out from
a cultural standpoint yeah I mean that's
that's certainly that's certainly how it
could turn out um there's you know look
there is some idiosyncrasies with Amazon
in terms of like on the retail side
they've been gaining share with the
essentials the problem is with the
essentials it's not a very profitable
business it almost feels like they're
playing defense by by pushing that so
much just to make sure someone else is
not getting those sales so people don't
get excited about that there's a lot of
questions about um whatever they're
trying to do on the on the entertainment
side like it's not a clean story it's
not right so but again that's reflected
in the fact that this is still selling
at a discount to its historical its
historic multiple and you know the Bears
would say well it should and I guess I
would agree the real question is will it
always goes yeah yeah okay Apple uh as
you mentioned hit a new high it's closer
to four trillion than it is to three
trillion which is to me just nuts
because if you think about the context
Apple intelligence has been um pretty
lukewarm like a true me release uh The
Vision Pro has gone nowhere and they
have issues in China which is 20% of
their market so what do you think
explains the sort of um speaking of a
clean story and not the sort of
disparity there between apple story and
its performance
um you failed to mention that the Vision
Pro probably the thing that people were
most excited about for them to launch
other than AI has been a flop yeah like
unmitigated like nobody is saying that
was successful maybe if I forgot it it
was anyway but go ahead so here's so I I
guess this is the way I would put it and
this is a very real politic answer in
the end it's cash flows and earnings and
do you have them or do you not have them
and Apple has them and apple uh
basically it's a $200 billion cash horde
with which they can pursue $300 billion
worth of BuyBacks off the cash flow
alone over the next couple of years so
they can buy in a ton of stock and uh
they are churning out plenty of profits
as a result of the services business
staying strong and they can have a flop
here a flop there an underwhelming
iPhone uh uh launch Etc um but in like
they get the Ben benef of the doubt from
the investor class that whatever's wrong
or half baked in the case of uh in the
case of the AI effort like they will
eventually figure it out and get it
right and or like yesterday they dropped
a hint I don't know who sourced The Wall
Street Journal but like apple is
considering a lighter weight headset
yeah no
because Facebook is uh meta is
selling a ton of the rayb bands and now
they're going to sell this Orion uh unit
so obviously like that's where the ball
is so Apple's considering it you okay
I'm sure it's like all Hands-On deck
internally they they must make sure that
the next iteration of the Vision Pro is
uh a little less dorky think it's a
problem for Apple that meta is beating
them to the future of AI and mixed
reality yeah I watched um I watched
Zuckerberg on stage with the acquired
guys talking about like denigrating the
phone as the center of the center like
like the
he basically said you're all suffering
from this huge amount of uh recency bias
just because the iPhone has been the
dominant lens through which we view the
internet that doesn't mean it's going to
be the case the next 15 years and he
kept saying listen if you really want to
look at a piece of glass like so he is
very clearly uh he is very clearly
winning the wearable thing right now and
uh I guess I just would say like apple
rarely gets there first I think they
just get their best and I think I think
they'll they'll figure it out okay
lastly Nvidia um I think when I was at
your office the last time all time high
yesterday yeah right it was approaching
three trillion and you're like if it
hits three trillion I got to offload
some or and I didn't um you didn't so so
clearly you believe that Nvidia has room
to go does it does it eventually tail
off or I mean here's the I'll just give
like literally 60 seconds on why I think
Nvidia might be limited um or like what
the case would be that Nvidia is limited
right it's that other companies are come
up going to come up with specialized
hardware for things like inference um
that's going to undercut nvidia's
ability to sell and also just that um
you know that their pricing power might
not last for as long as they think it
will if people aren't going to have real
return on this technology what's your
perspective I don't know they just told
us they sold out of Blackwell uh chips
for 12 months did you okay is that what
they said okay yeah so yeah I mean that
is that to me that's not a surprise
listen this has been this has been this
has been the bare case on Nvidia is that
the
hyperscalers will at some point stop
spending and I've made this case before
but like the thing is nobody knows when
and you
know there was talk a year ago Nvidia is
Cisco and remember all those slide decks
and charts and presentations where
they right they overlaid Nvidia
over Cisco Circa
1999 uh it's doubled since then it's
doubled yes can I tell you one last
funny thing on this of course yeah
definitely I just got a dividend from
Nvidia paid into my fidelity account
just just the idea that they're paying a
dividend too is really funny to me oh
yeah I know it's small percentage wise
it's nothing but it was funny right yeah
no I mean it's the it's the gift that
keeps on giving
I mean it's definitely been you've been
early on it and to ride it from where
you were to where where it is now must
be just a an unbelievable High uh yeah
it's look it's the biggest winner I've
ever had in my life and I don't I think
you could live another another hundred
years and not see anything like this
ever again um so I uh I'm I'm I'm not
like uh beating my chest like look I I
got Nvidia a lot of people have bought
it over the years I just happen to have
gotten into it like really really early
but before I was excited about AI it was
no AI yeah so uh I'm I'm happy about it
and I've sold a little bit along the way
but I I uh think my position now is
maybe a forever position I don't know
we'll see wow we'll see okay the book is
you weren't supposed to see that Secrets
every investor should know it's by Josh
Brown you can get it at all bookstores
today you can also listen to his podcast
the compound and friends on your podcast
app of choice and see him on CNBC at the
halftime report and every now and again
Josh and I show up there together and
it's always fun to be on with you Josh
great to see you thanks so much for your
time thank you Alex you're the best all
right everybody thank you so much for
listening thanks again to Josh for
coming on Ronan and I will be back on
Friday breaking down the week's news and
we'll see you next time on big
technology podcast