What Apple's Failures Say About AI's Limitations —  With M.G. Siegler

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2025-06-11

YouTube video id: e-jhzwOQBTw

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-jhzwOQBTw

Are Apple's AI failures happening in a
vacuum? Or are they a damning sign of
the limitations of AI itself? Yes, we're
going there. Plus, plenty more
observations from WWDC. That's coming up
right after this. Welcome to Big
Technology Podcast, a show for
coolheaded and nuanced conversation of
the tech world and beyond. Let's break
down what happened at Apple's big
developer event this week and look at
whether the company's AI limitations say
something worrying about AI itself.
We're joined today once again by the
great MG Seagler, author of Spyglass,
which you can find at spyglass.org. MG,
welcome back. Thanks so much for having
me on, Alex. All right, let's just get
quickly uh to the event itself. I'm just
going to go read the last line of your
post to begin with because I want to get
your reaction of as to what we saw from
Apple because they did uh have their big
annual developer event this year
introduced a new user interface. Uh said
shockingly little about AI. I think you
said that they said more about the phone
app than they did about Apple
intelligence.deed.
your your conclusion is overall I'd
probably give this WWDC two out of five
stars, but it easily could have been a
zero due to their mistakes of the past.
So, quick reaction to WWDC. Uh, and why
just two or five? Yeah. So, and
obviously that was an illusion to their
ending which they did this cute little
diddy uh song made up of their uh co
coalating different app store reviews
for different real apps in the app store
with a six out of five which is a very
catchy song. nicely done. But uh that
may have been unfortunately sort of one
of the highlights of the event right
there at the end because you know this
of course was uh the elephant in the
room event where there was uh all the
talk leading up to it that Apple just
would be shying away largely from AI
this year given what happened last year
at WWDC where of course they maybe
overpromised and ended up
underdelivering on on what was actually
promised. And so, you know, when I say
two out of five stars, I'm giving Apple,
you know, a little bit of uh of benefit
of the doubt here, just because like it
easily, I really think could have been a
zero out of five stars given how little
they had to talk about AI. And so, you
know, they went back to sort of one of
their historic strengths, and we can
talk about this more in a bit, but going
to UI instead of AI, right? Going to uh
um the overall sort of look and feel of
their operating systems. again what has
been considered a strength for them in
the past and I think they were able to
sort of smartly navigate down that path
um giving people things to talk about
when they weren't going to be talking
about again that elephant in the room
now they did talk about Apple
intelligence I don't know if they ever
used the word AI as you know last year
they they sort of famously said or
didn't say that you know AI they they
went after Apple intelligence their own
branding of it they did talk about Apple
intelligence quite a bit um but sort of
my interpretation and read of the
situation is that they were just totally
sort of downplaying it and and skirting
over um you know what's what's actually
obviously being talked a lot about in
the industry and sort of just making it
just like you know this little feature
that we don't really need to talk about
this year cuz there's just little things
that it's doing for you and and it's not
that big of a deal which of course I
think everyone outside of Apple would
disagree with. I think that's so
perceptive. Like one of the things that
we saw from Apple last year is it at
least realized that was one of the
companies that could build this sort of
masterful AI product drawing from all
different information sources. Uh and
then if you look at the AI perspective
this year, it was much more um let's do
a couple of features that aren't sort of
tied together in a coherent uh message.
This is from Twitter user signal.
Watching this WWDC felt like watching a
dinosaur try to do ballet. Technically
and aesthetically competent but
spiritually lost. They talked about
Apple intelligence like like they just
discovered the concept throughout the
presentation. There was zero ecosystem
thinking and no real attempt to rethink
a sing a single interaction model. I
mean this was really the problem, right?
It was just like that that um and
obviously they've had problems executing
and we can touch on that. Uh but that
broader vision of what AI can be just
gone. Yeah. And I mean if we take a step
back and they sort of kicked off with
this, Tim Cook kicked off with it. This
is a developer event, right? And
developers are arguably have never been
more excited to talk about anything than
than they have been probably about AI.
you know, certainly since um you know,
the the introduction of of smartphones
um and and you know, the web before
that, but like AI arguably is even a
step above those right now because the
developer ecosystem is so much larger
than it was back in those days. Uh
thanks in part obviously to the
smartphone and and all the different
technologies we have now. But so this
was supposed to be a developer focused
event. And again, you hit on it and I
joked about it, but it was like Apple
spent three minutes talking about a
phone, the phone app. Like who uses the
phone app anymore? like, yeah, there's
some nice little cute upgrades, but we
didn't need to talk about that for 3
minutes when we talked about Apple
Intelligence for roughly 3 minutes to
kick off with. And so, you know, that
dichotomy, it seemed very telling of it.
And they just didn't have a lot to talk
about with with regard to developers um
and Apple intelligence. They did talk
about um you know, you being able to
leverage some of their ondevice models
that had leaked of course beforehand. I
think Mark German, as as with most
things, was able to to scoop that ahead
of time. Um but that that was sort of
the one bone that they threw to
developers. Um and it's unclear you know
how useful that will be. I think at a
again at like a high level I think it's
interesting to have ondevice access to
models um you know for all sorts of
reasons but are they really going to be
as powerful um as some of the other
state-of-the-art models out there?
Obviously not. But can they be used for
sort of other things that developers
will actually find useful? That's
obviously very TBD at this point. I just
want to put this all in context because
Apple has failed so bad on rolling out
Apple intelligence that I think there's
this um there's this belief out there
that they like had a a mind-blowing
presentation last year. Uh but they
didn't. And last year uh okay, couple
things. Um, first of all, your headline
was Apple fails to overreact to the AI
revolution, which was like they had a
bunch of features. They did have this
ecosystem thinking, but even that would
have kind of caught them up to the
modern-day thinking of a company like
Google. So, it wasn't like they were
promising the moon. Um, you know, it
doesn't seem like they even delivered a
lamp post. Uh, and then, you know, I I
even just like looking back to last
year, I did this poll. We talked about
it on on the reaction show. Um, I asked
people your reaction to WWDC AI stuff
mid-event. Uh, wow, cool, or meh. Uh, me
was the winner, 50.4%.
This year, I asked again, Apple WWDC
reaction, not even talking about AI. And
now maybe my audience is primed because
they've heard me talk about Apple for a
moment, but it's probably the same
audience as last year. And Meg gained 30
points, a 30 point increase in me. This
is a landslide. It came in at 81%. So
talk a little bit about sort of where
Apple's vision is this year compared to
last year and why you think they haven't
even met uh these sort of muted
projections for what they want to do
with AI. Yeah. So you sort of hit on it,
you know, in a in a bit ago for a
second. Um the notion last year it felt
like was look, maybe Apple has a window
of opportunity here to actually step in
and and productize some of the work
that's been done under underneath with
AI. Right? there had been all the all
the model um breakthroughs and and
obviously there was chat GBT doing some
you know real consumer uh facing work
with AI but a lot of the other stuff was
underwhelming andor just seem very um
desperate and not sort of put together
in a nice cohesive package which of
course Apple is famous for doing coming
into a market a little bit later than
everyone else and sort of putting
together a nice package around um you
know stuff that's not exactly new but
that they could sort of um put it
together in a in a new compelling offer
all in one offering. And so I think that
was some of the hope after last year's
WWDC. Again, a lot of people sort of
felt it was still underwhelming. And
certainly people I think with a more
perhaps technological bent felt like,
you know, it wasn't sort of up to the
snuff of some of the other um giant
companies, what they were doing. Um but
had Apple been able to execute on some
of that, you know, maybe we would have
been looking upon it differently. Now,
of course, they didn't as as you're sort
of talking about. And so this year,
yeah, it was it was basically going into
it, you know, with um with that baggage
hanging over them. And again, you know,
sort of the the maybe hope that they
would do something to surprise and, you
know, something that that possibly
hadn't leaked ahead of time, but that
ended up not being the case. every
single thing had leaked, which I do
think is a problem increasingly
increasing problem for Apple and and in
particular was a problem here because,
you know, had everything not leaked,
maybe they could have gotten away with a
little bit more leeway uh with the
audience if like, you know, oh, they
hadn't uh unveiled the liquid glass UI
elements ahead of time and and they
hadn't known about the name changes
ahead of time. You know, those are silly
things compared to sort of what's going
on with the overall AI revolution, but
it still would have at least given them,
you know, some some uh air cover, I
think, with talking points, you know, on
in on the media circuits and whatnot
that look, Apple's doing things a little
bit differently and maybe, you know,
maybe it would plant a seed of doubt in
people's minds that look, maybe this AI
stuff still is too early and maybe Apple
shouldn't be so focused on it right now.
And that was again some of the talk
after last year. You know, maybe Apple
was just getting in at the right time or
maybe it was still even a little bit
early and they were doing things a
little bit pressured by Wall Street,
which I think in hindsight ended up
being a lot pressured by Wall Street,
right? Hence why they couldn't sort of
uh uh you know, execute on some of those
promises. But the this year again, they
just had they had none of that benefit
of the doubt. And so you're going into
this looking like they're just sort of
not talking about AI cuz they literally
can't right now because they had to
rejigger the whole team. they have to
sort of if not completely start over
from scratch at least sort of look at
everything from you know a starting over
from scratch standpoint and think you
know much like Amazon it seems like had
to do perhaps with Alexa sort of figure
out do we have something here that we
can salvage you know notably in Siri or
is there you know are we going to really
have to rethink this from the ground up.
I want to give you some credit here
because there were two reactions uh that
you had on our show last year. first of
all was Apple fails to overreact to the
AI revolution. Spot on. Uh even though
they haven't even been able to meet
their lack of overreaction. Uh the other
thing that you said and I'm going to
quote is there's a lot of cool stuff. I
just don't know how you productize it.
You were skeptical from the very
beginning of Apple's ability to build
the things that it showed in these demos
last year. So, let me just use that as
like a jumping off point to ask you and
then I teased this at the beginning and
I think this is really important to
discuss um to ask you about the
limitations of AI itself because we saw
Apple make this promise. We saw Amazon
make a similar promise in February of
this year uh with Alexa plus and some
people may have Alexa plus. I haven't
met them and I'm I'm waiting months uh
after they promised it would roll out.
Not here.
Google might be the most far ahead, but
Gemini has severe limitations if we're
being honest. I mean, if you're using
Gemini and Gmail, you're probably going
to be disappointed. Sometimes it works,
but most of the time it's like, I think
this should be better. So, here's the
question for you is, you know, have we
gotten carried away with what AI can do?
Because if you think about what AI has
actually
been useful for, it's the chat bots are
great. I think everybody agrees that
everyone who uses them. Chat GPT's 03
model that thing's amazing. Um, but
where has AI extended beyond the
chatbot? Maybe a tiny bit of aentic work
uh in enterprise. Um, but beyond that,
we haven't seen the ability for these
companies to build these promised uh
smart assistants despite I guess we see
another company talk about it at a
developer conference, you know, every
few months. So, what's going on MG?
Yeah, I mean I think that some of this
is exactly what we're talking about with
a Apple, Amazon and Google. So all three
of them notably had uh you know
assistants in the past, right? So there
was Siri, there was Alexa and Google had
um you know the Google Assistant and
Google Home products too which sort of
everyone sort of you know talks past
now. But that was also you know a
multi-million
million unit um device that was in a lot
of people's homes and still is in a lot
of people's homes. Um and all of them I
sort of chalk up to uh having major
problems sort of upgrading those uh both
devices and mentalities because they had
some level of success. Now we could
argue about you know series level of
success but it was the first mover in a
way right in the market and you know it
it got a lot of buzz and and had some
early promise. Alexa came along and sort
of blew it out of the water and Amazon
just had a different strategy of
ubiquity and getting these cheap uh Echo
devices in in everyone's homes and and
everywhere and then Google sort of
matched that general strategy with with
assistant stuff. Um but again that in a
way became an albatross around all of
their necks because when it came time
you know to this new wave of AI they
basically had all these devices that
they still had to service and and hope
to upgrade in some ways and it's as it
turns out it looks like now in hindsight
obviously it's just a lot harder to sort
of go back and try to to shove this new
technology into that old technology even
though on a surface level they seem like
they're similar. It seems like, you
know, behind the scenes they're not
similar at all. And in fact, there's a
lot of stuff that's like so simple that
um Alexa was doing with like timers and
stuff that it's actually harder in some
ways to get some of the newer technology
to do. Now to your broader question
about like products like I just speak to
that because I think like a lot of those
companies had the mentality of like look
we already productized some of again
like what uh the high level of what
these these assistants and chat bots are
doing with uh Echo and and uh HomePod
and things like that. So why can't we
just do that again? Well, you know, as
it turns out first first of all like
some consumers were turned away from
those after trying them for so long and
just not getting a lot of utility out of
them, right? beyond the timers and
playing music. It's like again there's
sort of this weird problem of success,
quote unquote success in that the people
were trained to use these devices and
now can they really go down that same
path? And so um you know I think the big
companies are all sort of stuck in this
weird um position where they tried that
path and it sort of worked but it didn't
work well enough and it's probably not
going to work exactly uh correctly with
the new technology. And so do they try
to use you know new devices or do they
try in the case of of course Apple and
and Google do they try to shove um you
know this technology into smartphones
which they're doing Google to a greater
extent of course than than Apple is
right now but what ultimately do the
products look like there like you're
talking about is it just like you know
being able to autocorrect Gmail or write
emails for you in Gmail or is there sort
of something new that should be done and
that of course gets to what you know
Johnny IV is potentially working on with
with Sam Alman and with the OpenAI team
and the whole acquisition of the IO um
company um and you know by all the
accounts they're they're trying to build
a new fangled device right something
that's completely new from the ground up
that's not trying to again cram this new
technology in an old device and and you
know who knows obviously we we can all
guess as to what that will be and and
how that will work no one will know
until it ships including them you know
they're they're talking a big game about
it but they always talk big games about
all the stuff especially Sam Alman of
course as as he famously does and so
it's really going to be hard to know for
sure but I do think that that path is
probably a little bit more clear than
what the in you know the quote unquote
incumbents or the big tech companies
have right now because you know they
just they have all of this legacy and
institutional knowledge of like what
they've done in the past to productize
different technologies and I'm just not
sure it's going to work that time
because in a way we kicked off talking
about like AI versus UI in a way AI is a
new UI right like And it's weird to
think about in in that way. Um but it it
really sort of you need to I think think
about it in that way. And so if you're
trying to cram AI into sort of the older
paradigms of of UI and thinking like oh
we need you know um you know this this
beautiful interface or we need um you
know like a like an app uh specifically
to do that. Uh you know we'll see that
will work for some services I think but
not for everything. Yeah. So, we might
talk a little bit more about this Johnny
IV device, but just to touch on it
quickly because I've talked about it a
lot in the newsletter and on the on the
podcast recently, uh, we had a great
YouTube comment, and honestly, it's a
little coarse, but sometimes this says
everything you need to know about the
internet where a guy said, "Unless you
can tell me unless you can tell me dudes
can watch porno without a highdefinition
screen, the AI device is a hoax."
Fair. I think that's a that's a fair
fair criticism. porn has driven a lot of
technological adoption of course
famously over the years and and what
that looks like here. You know, again,
like this is not a new an exactly new
thought, but I do generally agree with
like the notion of if if we consider
that that sort of AI and and UI blending
together in some ways, I think that AI
ends up working in some capacity on a
product side because it's going to be
all different sorts of of different
interfaces and devices that we use it
on. It's not just a phone. It's not just
a computer. And it's not necessarily
just a, you know, new device of whatever
um, you know, these these various other
companies including OpenAI are working
on. Yeah. Um, and so there's got to be a
screen involved. It it'll be a screen
and maybe a device like IV's device will
not have a screen. That's what the
reports are. No screen, not a wearable.
There's no way that becomes the device.
Is it a device? Maybe. Uh, probably
actually. Or maybe that entire user
interface just happens with your phone
speaker and microphone. Uh, I mean,
looks
look to what Amazon's doing right now,
right? I think you talked to Panos Pane
about this like when did I get a screen
device, right? Exactly. And that's how
they're rolling it out if to your point
if they're actually rolling it out. I
mean, I think that a few people have it.
Um, but uh but it's unclear how many,
but they're restricting it heavily
because they're restricting it to um the
newer Echo devices with a screen in
particular.
So, I want to ask you if you're if
you're going to account for any
probability that the AI technology
itself just can't handle this. And I'll
give like the argument that I think
would um sort of encapture sort of
capture why LLMs might not be able to do
this. It's a lot of information to take
into account. Think about how many
emails we have, uh the data we have in
maps, how many text messages we have. uh
is it possible that they can just they
simply cannot put the attention now we
have million or two million I think two
million uh token context windows but is
it possible that there's just you know
these assistants that are trying to
capture all your data cannot work
reliably trying to uh handle such a huge
amount of information at once I think
it's a good question it sort of reminds
me of something I wrote a little several
weeks ago at this point but when it was
around some news that basically when all
of the AI companies were starting to
roll out u memory features, right,
OpenAI did it and and Google's done it
and and a few others, Google like
doubled down and triple down on that at
IO, right? Talking about how now it'll
have the context of like pulling in
Drive, pulling in Gmail and everything.
And like to me when I hear that so at a
service level that sounds like yes of
course like I want you know my AI to
know everything and I want it to be able
to to have the historical context. My
thought a few weeks ago um and I still
agree with this um is that I wouldn't be
shocked if that sort of go backfires
against these companies in some way.
like I'm not really sure that people
want to use this new technology to sort
of dredge up the past and have all of
that historical context. Now obviously
there's the famous examples like dating
back to Facebook of like you know
surfacing you know old girlfriends or
surfacing people that you don't want to
see anymore and that kind of stuff like
but I think even beyond that just like
everyone's everyone evolves as a person
a lot and if you have the you know
context from your Gmails that you sent
in 2004 five or whenever Gmail actually
launched you know 20 years ago like is
that really going to inform your uh you
know your interactions with AI in 2025
and 2026 and beyond. And what does that
mean? Like you would hope that the AI is
smart enough to know like maybe discount
something that you said in 2005 because
you no longer believe that for whatever
reason, but maybe it doesn't know that,
right? Maybe it weights it just as
heavily. You know, certainly there's
there's been plenty of um of fits and
starts with different AI products where
they sort of don't quite get um the
context that they need to with regard to
sort of the way that you're using AI go,
you know, dating to the uh the the Bing
chats um hallucination stuff and trying
to get uh Kevin Ruse to leave his wife
or whatnot. Um, and so there's all sorts
of historical precedent for why you you
might not trust uh these these chat bots
to sort of take the proper context uh
into account when when utilizing these
things. But again, to your exact
question, I you know, I do think that
there's um there's a concern that
they're going down a path right now um
thinking that it's the right thing to do
when instead like maybe even something
like OpenAI, which is obviously a much
newer product, um shouldn't be so
heavily thinking about and worrying
about all of this memory stuff and and
historical, you know, stuff to pull in
there. Let's go to one more YouTube
comment because I think this sort of
gets exactly to your point. We had
somebody in my recap uh from the event
uh on Monday says they said I don't give
one flying flip for AI on my phone.
Apple should just leave it out
altogether. I don't want AI reading my
messages. I don't want AI looking at my
photos. I want AI to get the f out of my
life. I I wonder how many what
percentage of the population that
comment represents.
Yeah, I mean there's a lot in there,
right? Like I've seen that too. I've
seen that general comment. People have
left me similar comments, right? Like
especially about Apple. It's interesting
especially about Apple products because
I feel like I don't know if it's the
sort of historical privacy messaging or
even the anti sort of Meta and and
Google messaging, right? where it's like
people who are, you know, die hard in
the Apple ecosystem almost at least
historically have viewed Google and Meta
um you know as as sort of the villains
uh you know who are just all about data
hoovering and and you know bringing this
all in to to feed their business models.
Obviously, there's some level of truth
to that um because their model that is
their business model, but there's, you
know, there's of course a flip side to
that too, which is Apple's not, you
know, the the full-on uh white knight in
this regard who, you know, who's doing
everything, you know, for purely um uh
you know, above board reasons. Um,
everyone has their own agendas, right?
And everyone has their own business
models and everyone uh has has reasons,
all companies have reasons to do what
they're doing. Um but to your to that
comment, yeah, I do think that there's
there's a subset of people who um look
at this stuff with AI and think like is
this Apple sort of delving into a world
really that's more of the Google and and
meta mindset with data and and
everything else and like I don't want
any of this stuff. Now I do think that
there's a bit of a lite concern there,
right? like that this is just people not
fully understanding or or not liking the
notion of having to learn a new thing or
worried that you know this is this is
just not going to be useful at all and
again to our earlier points like it's up
to these companies to prove the
usefulness of these products. I do think
I think that chat GBT has done that and
I think that there's a reason why, you
know, where there's all this talk about
Google search and I think Google's
reactions to this and and shoving AI
front and center into search are more
indicative of anything that they're
saying out loud. It's just follow what
they're doing. Like it's obvious that
this has worked to some extent, but will
anything work beyond that? you hit on
some of the other things, generative
stuff, you know, some of the video stuff
is cool, but it's so early um that it's
like it it's just not there right now.
And so the only thing that is there
right now is really chat GBT and um you
know what what does that look like
productized? I mean, OpenAI already did
it and so either Apple just you know
fully more fully bakes it in, which I
still think by the way they should
probably do with Siri while they rebuild
Siri, right? just totally outsource it
to Chat GBT. We did see that yesterday
announced like that was sort of one of
the more subtle interesting things like
they did a bunch more smaller
partnerships uh with chat with open AI
to integrate chat GBT and notably with
the uh with Xcode where all the rumors
had suggested that it might be um
anthropic and clawed that that were sort
of being baked in and you know it's it's
probable that they're still sort of
testing that behind the scenes but they
rolled it out it sounds like with with
chat GBT and so it's interesting that
they're going further down that that
path with that company. Um, but again,
that that sort of makes sense. Again, th
that's the that's the product, that's
the the brand that's resonating with
people right now from a product
perspective, right? I I had this
conversation like along those lines. I
had this conversation with someone on
the broadcast riser yesterday when I was
out at WWDC or on Monday. Uh, where they
were like, well, I don't need an AI
phone. I like my phone as it is. I was
like, yeah, well, you don't have it. And
that's sort of been the history of
technology is that we the best companies
will give us things we didn't know that
we wanted and all of a sudden they
become essential to our life. And that's
I would just give you one one quick an
anecdote on that exact point which is my
own personal usage of believe it or not
back in the day uh when before the
iPhone launched I was super skeptical. I
watched the the keynote like everyone
else did. I wasn't there but I was
watching it from afar and I just thought
like yeah it looks cool. There's no way
I'm buying a $700 phone. Like, you know,
I had a I had a Motorola Razer flip
phone. I was like, this is great. It's
super small. It fits in my pocket.
That's all I need. Like, what am what am
I going to do with a $700 phone? Uh sort
of like Steve Bummer, I guess I sounded
like back in the day. Um and then day
one, I happened to be near an Apple
store. I was actually back home where I
grew up in Ohio. Uh and I just on a on a
whim, I saw a long line of people. So, I
was just like, "Yeah, I have a few
minutes to kill. I'll go wait in line
and just see see what the deal is with
this iPhone. I picked it up in the store
and I literally walked out of the store
with it. It was like it was one of those
things where I just used it for 10
seconds and immediately got it. Whereas
I didn't get it even with Steve Jobs
brilliant presentation um and even with
all the hype around it. I just thought,
"No way I'm doing that." And then I
picked it up and I didn't necessarily
have the the $700 to spend at the time,
but I had a credit card and I was going
to uh get that device no matter what.
And to your point like maybe you know
there will be something that comes along
uh that we see that with with AI where
it becomes like it's on paper it doesn't
sound like there's anything that can
sort of come along but if someone nails
it like it could be one of those aha
moments
and in the near term how competitive is
this? So here's another question that we
got. This is from the big technology
discord. How much time do you think they
have after Google IO? I was considering
switching from the iPhone to an Android.
Uh, for those like me using Windows on
the desktop and Apple on the phone,
Google might hit an AI tipping point
that would make it worth giving up my
pretty phone, especially if an Android
phone will make my Google AI glasses
work better. So, is this already
competitive? Is this like 5 years down
the line? Like, how should we be
thinking about this? So, I've heard this
a lot, too, and I've heard, you know,
you hear it sort of increasingly over
the years, right? Like there's always
it's interesting dichotomy between uh
WWDC and Google IO because they're
always around the same time, right?
They're both developer focused events.
And while it's not the iPhone event,
like it's it's sort of a good uh jumping
off point to sort of compare where the
two companies are at, right? And and
this year of course is is a you know a
vast chasm uh at least with regard to AI
with where the two companies are at. But
um even after IO this year, I feel like
I heard that exact comment that you're
talking about more and more than I ever
have. And again, I feel like I hear that
more and more every year where it's like
this is the year that I'm going to ditch
my iPhone and go over to Android because
clearly they have the momentum with uh
with AI. And if you believe that sort of
this is the future technology that's
going to matter the most, like it
doesn't necessarily matter if Apple has
the better UI and if Apple has even the
better uh you know hardware necessarily.
Um if again AI is going to take over. I
don't think that that's necessarily the
case right now for exactly the reasons
that we're talking about because I don't
think that there's exactly the killer
app um that that makes Android that much
better than iOS right now. I have um I
have a Pixel Fold the you know the the
newest one I think it's Pixel Fold 9
right now. It's a nice device. I think
it's cool that the folding you know form
factor is is sort of coming into its
own. Obviously Apple's going to go down
that path. It sounds like maybe next
year um and and they'll have something
like that. But regardless of the
hardware, again, the the u the AI
elements of it is is sort of what I was
looking for and why I got that to see
how how different it actually was. And
yeah, there's things where Gemini is
more baked in, of course, to the to the
OS level. But it's honestly in my mind
at least it's not that differentiated
right now because uh on the iPhone again
Czech GBT is sort of the the leader in
the um you know in the house right now
with regard to um consumerf facing AI
products and so that app is on the
iPhone and it's good and it's on the Mac
and it's good and it's on the iPad and
it's good and so until there's something
new and maybe to your commenter's point
um of this other secondary device where
it better integrates with it would be
interesting if that sort of ends up
being a weak point for Apple because
that's historically been a strength,
right? The AirPods work with the iPhone,
the Apple Watch works with the iPhone.
And so what if all of these like sort of
uh concert of of AI devices work better
with Android than they do with uh Apple
devices because Apple is so far behind
in uh in AI. And that could be a major
weak point, but we're way we're a ways
away from those those secondary uh
compelling AI devices from coming out.
Okay. And so uh can I suggest something?
Is it possible that this mistake of this
Apple's Apple's inability to ship Apple
intelligence uh is not you know necess
because like like you said it's not
immediately competitive. It's not as
much about the fact that they haven't
been able to do this. It's that Apple
just needs something right now because
they are under attack from so many
different angles. The tariff issue is
obviously not good for them. Um their
service business is under attack from
two vectors. one is that that search
revenue uh that they get from Google uh
the 20 billion dollar to be the default
uh may go away and the other like you've
written about they're going to start
potentially being forced to take
payments um via the web and not in their
inapp payment service which means they
get zero cut if that's the direction
consumers want to go and so you also
have flat iPhone sales so you need
something and that's why the pressure is
on Apple intelligence maybe less about
the fact that people are going to get
the AI phone and run away from Apple,
but like this company needs a spark.
Yeah, it's a great point. In particular,
I think you know what you're you know
hinting upon is the the notion that
basically for the past um you know since
the iPhone launched in in 2007, it's
been up and to the right saleswise until
the very recent you know past few
handful of quarters where things have
sort of stagnated. Um uh and so that up
and to the right of of iPhone sales have
sort of masked anything else that Apple
is has sort of missed on and that
includes by the way the Vision Pro,
right? Like that obviously was not a
huge hit, but it didn't matter so much,
right? Because they still had the iPhone
and they still had some of the other
services business which are also hitting
upon with with Google and and the App
Store. And so all of those were able to
mask um any sort of um you know missteps
that they had and they don't really have
anything right now that can mask that
cuz again iPhone revenue is is now sort
of um flatlining and and just stable um
and not growing anymore. And now
services revenue which is the one growth
area that they've had for the past few
years is under massive pressure. And if
that were to stop um or go down if they
lose the Google search uh you know $20
billion a year deal like they have all
of a sudden they have all sorts of
unanswered questions and they have a lot
of pressure for that next big thing um
to come in to sort of restabilize the
company. And so I think this is sort of
a perfect storm in a way timing wise.
And so going back to yeah the notion of
of AI and why that plays into this I do
think that yeah that's like certainly
what Wall Street is looking for right
with regard to like what's the next
growth area and for Microsoft it's been
AI for uh Google it's been AI for Amazon
you know it's been AI to all of the all
these other companies have sort of
ridden this wave and Apple hasn't so far
uh and so I think Wall Street looks to
it like oh well they'll get back on the
horse and they'll be able to do it. So
that hasn't been the case so far and um
but that's one side of the story. The
other thing that I think is is sort of
downplayed a little bit in this
narrative which is that beyond
everything that we've been talking about
with with regard to AI and and the
productization of it and and maybe
they're not too early because maybe no
one's really productizing it in a
compelling way right now. I do think
more so with AI than with any other
technology that I've seen in the past,
it's moving so fast um to the point
where if Apple isn't in the game, I
worry that they just don't have both the
right mentality but also the right
talents and they're not able to recruit
the right talents and they don't have
the right leadership in place to sort of
be there if and when the time comes, you
know, for it to really take off from a
product perspective, right? And I do
think that a lot of the narratives that
we've seen sort of leading up to WD WDC
about the behind-the-scenes stories
about what went wrong at Apple and why
they sort of weren't able to meet the
moment with with regard to AI sort of
does point to both some leadership
challenges but also just it's a company
that uh historically operates a very you
know set set in their ways way of doing
things and AI the real sort of
transformative nature of it for Apple
might be the fact that they have to sort
of break that mentality of how they've
operated up until date to be able to
work in this new environment. And again,
it's weird because like we're talking
about, it's not necessarily because the
products are ready to go, but it's that
if they don't get on board now, they're
going to be so far behind when the
products are ready to go that they don't
have again the right leadership, the
right talent, and the right mentality to
actually execute as we saw sort of in a
small way over the past year. This is
why I've been jumping up and down on the
table for them to acquire. Perplexity
would be the biggest acquisition in
their history by far. I know you ranked
at it number two on your list of
potential Apple acquisition targets
after Anthropic, but they're raising at
a like 14 or 16 billion valuation. I
said this on the program, like on the
program on Friday on CNBC yesterday. I'm
going to write about it. I'm not going
to stop until I manifest this into
reality, but you know, they're it's a
company that did a hundred billion
dollar buyback two years in a row. Like
go out and buy Perplexity today. So, and
I agree and I mean I think I think
anthropic I put as number one simply
because of like the overall mentality
that they have right with with how they
talk about AI. It feels like it's more
sympatico with the way that sort of
Apple would think about things whereas
like Perplexity um they have a little
bit more you know a little bit more in
your face right like and they have to
right in that culture. Yes. Exactly.
there would be a little bit a little bit
of a challenge, but to his credit like
they they're the scrappy startup. Like
they're going they were going up against
Google when no one thought that search
would be a vector that you could attack
and they were right about that, right? I
mean like obviously they're you know
they're they're not to the extent that
chat GBT is but still they picked an
avenue and I think a smart one and that
avenue happens to be another avenue that
would immensely help Apple beyond just
the AI having a search element of it if
this Google search you know component um
you know goes away for Apple like having
uh technologies uh like the ones that
perplexity can bring on board with AI
and with search itself I think would be
immensely useful and to your point it's
also a cheaper than what anthrop I don't
think I don't think that Apple can buy
Anthropic just because of like the weird
ownership now of Amazon and Google
owning so much of that company. I think
it would be very hard to see how they
could possibly do that and it would just
cost you know hundred billion or
whatever it would cost uh in order to do
that. But but perplexity is definitely
something that they probably could
swallow and and figure out a way to do.
Um though, as I'm sure you know, you you
saw the other day, it seems like they're
closing in on a major deal with Samsung.
And you know, does that muddy the waters
of sort of trying to get a deal done in
that regard? Because Samsung's their
biggest device competitor. Yeah, they
got to do it right away. You cannot
wait. Yeah. All right. So, I want to end
this uh segment or this whole like let
me put a point on this conversation. uh
you have a prediction in your piece uh
either the one that just came out or the
one that's come out recently that Apple
will get its act together on AI by 2026.
So I want to ask you this uh it it does
seem like you do believe that this I
this this u everpromised assistant that
we've seen from all these companies it
will it will materialize this is going
to happen.
I mean, I would say I would say that I
don't think that they'll have everything
solved by 2026 by any means, but I do
think I
I've heard enough sort of and done
enough triangulating where I feel like
they're at least now have the
appropriate fires lit under their asses
to uh to get, you know, a little bit
back in line. I do think that they would
be helped by an acquisition or two or
three or many um to bring more of just
what we were talking about sort of that
right mentality um you know and sort of
a changing in a way of the culture to
just a more you know fluid and and um
and shipping culture than than sort of
these you know bespoke jewels of uh of
that liquid glass maybe the best
encapsulated version of uh that we've
yet seen. Um and so I I would caveat it
to no to no end that uh they have a lot
that needs to get done before from here
to there. At the same time they have a
device and they have multiple devices
and an ecosystem of devices including
these including this including whatever
comes next with vision pro.
Yeah. Yes. that they can they can
leverage that. And by the way, they have
the other sort of uh absolute um
uh necessity in all of this which is
that they have a retail presence which
no one else can match and for consumer
goods. And so if if and when they can
find sort of uh either that next device
or that product for the current devices,
they can move units and sell these
things in a way that that Google can't
match, in a way that Meta can't match.
Um, you know, even if you believe that
Meta is going down the right path was
sort of the Ray-B bands and now, you
know, whatever the it's not Orion
anymore. Whatever the new version of
Orion, uh, I think they have a new
constellation they named it after or
something. Um, Artemis, Artemis, I think
is the new, uh, the new version of it.
Um, so, you know, Apple's obviously
going down those paths as well, but
again, Apple has this huge strength.
They have the retail stores all around
the world. So if they can get it right
and again hopefully make some
acquisitions to sort of speed that up a
little bit and just have the overall
right mentality I think they have an
opportunity to come back into the game.
Okay. And Apple nonwithstanding let's
say we take into account all these
companies. you you do think that one
like again talking about this assistant
that let's just that maybe can check
your mail and you know give you an
update about when you need to get to the
airport like that's the example that
they've all given uh or like be
contextually aware you get a text
message it knows it's important it puts
something in your shopping cart when
that happens and then you know shows it
to you and says I've put these three
things together and I've done this for
you so you're of the belief that we
might be able we might actually see that
and maybe within the next couple years I
do think that will eventually see that.
I would just say to that I you know it's
it's the it's so funny that Apple,
Amazon, they all use the same mom or
grandma is stranded at the airport. They
all use the same example. Like it's the
same one, right? It's always it's the
same example always. Can someone pick
this lady up please? Someone save mom or
save grandma? Like what is why is she
always stuck there? Why does she have a
phone? She now that Apple upgraded the
phone app, maybe she can make a call
again. Um get a new grandma. But I would
say like I I think that someone will do
those rights eventually or get that
right. I think it's a matter of time and
and you know you sort of hit on like is
it just like we just don't have these AI
models don't have the the capacity to
sort of deal with that complexity. I do
think that they'll eventually get there.
I'm not worried about that. But I'm not
sure that those are really killer use
cases of ultimate use cases of AI. I
think that that's like again sort of
trying to squeeze an old paradigm into
this new technology, right? And um I
think that things that end up being the
killer use cases are things that we're
just not thinking about right now
because we don't have the right either
hardware, we don't have even the right
software necessarily in place for what
they can actually achieve.
Okay, I need to take a quick break, get
to our mid roll, and then I want to talk
for a couple minutes about liquid glass
itself and whether this is actually an
upgrade for Apple like I said yesterday
or I said on in my little short pot on
Monday or whether I made a mistake. I'm
going to give you an answer, a
definitive answer on the other side of
this break. And we're back here on Big
Technology Podcast with MG Seagler. You
can find his writing at spyglass.org.
I'm a subscriber. Definitely recommend
you go subscribe. It's great stuff. uh
high volume and always interesting. So
yeah, for sure. And so uh MG I, you
know, it's so interesting because I did
this like uh sort of from the uh WWDC
10-minute podcast uh talking about my
reactions. And the one thing I took for
given was that this was like a good
upgrade, the good UI upgrade. Um and
that liquid glass, at least in their
presentations, looked really nice. And
then people started downloading it uh on
their phones and they are let's say not
happy. Um there are people reaction.
Yeah. There Yeah. I mean there are
people who are like looking at the
notification screen and saying that like
it's translucent and I can't really see
the notifications. Um there are people
like who are uh pulling up the the lock
screen and they're like this is uh let
me just read a couple things. Steve Jobs
would have taken you out back and shot
your kneecaps for pitching something
with this contrast ratio. Someone took a
screenshot from the presentation where
there's like a pink Mac desktop with
like flowers and other stuff in the
background and they say, "This is why
Johnny I've left. Uh Nikita Beer might
have my favorite uh thing." He said, "If
I can't read notifications anymore, then
I might as well stop talking to women
altogether." And he put a photo up of
the Google Pixel. So, what's your what's
your read of of this uh design this
design update? I'm starting to take back
I think I called it beautiful twice in
my Monday podcast and I'm starting to
regret that characterization. So, I have
a few thoughts about this. First and
foremost, you and I have been around
doing this long enough where we know
that the immediate reaction to any sort
of change, especially userfacing design
change, is almost always going to be
negative, right? like people just don't
like change and they don't like
switching up stuff. Now, Apple's
historically done a little bit better
because they're so designoriented and
and people I think give them more of the
benefit of the doubt that they're going
to, you know, release these beautiful
designs into the wild. Um, but but yeah,
I mean, I've seen everything on on the
social
uh about uh sort of the backlash to
this. I will say I also downloaded uh
iPad uh OS 26 uh to my iPad to a backup
iPad uh last night and played around
with it. I think it's fine right now. I
I'm I'm I'm uh I would say I'm hesitant
to say that I love it or hate it. I
think that there's some things which are
better. It's it's the boring nuanced
position of it. But I do think like
again having done this long enough, a
lot of these early betas they end up
tweaking quite a bit even from a design
perspective, right? Like there's little
like shading things that that don't make
sense right now. There's yeah, there's
notifications that you can't read right
now. Obviously, Apple is going to fix
those before they they sort of ship this
to the wild. This is the very first
developer beta. Um I think before the
public betas, it's reasonable to think
that they'll get quite a bit better in
that regard. But overall, do I think
that it's the right general stance to
take? uh you know from a design
perspective I mean it's I think it's
good to unify the designs right across
uh all their different devices which
they've slowly been doing anyway and I
do think the the flat quote unquote flat
design that you know Johnny IV did right
back in the iOS 7 days was getting a
little bit stale. It's always good to
refresh these things. Um I do worry that
liquid glass is a little bit too
transparent for um for what it's doing.
I also think like um I think it works
better on certain devices probably um
and I do think like uh it's a little bit
I love the fact that they've finally
done like Windows and stuff on on iPad
OS which is why I downloaded it there
but it also is like comically turning it
into a Mac um which you know sort of
Craig Federigi a little bit sort of
tongue-in-cheek joked about on stage I
think during the keynote but um you know
the overall I think that everyone will
calm down after after they've lived with
it for a little bit. My boring take.
Yeah, I think that's probably true. I
mean, every I remember hating many
redesigns as well. Uh but then again,
some redesigns really ruin products. So,
there's Yeah, I mean, Snap has had to
roll back several redesigns of things,
right? And so, if if uh if if people
really hate it, would Apple dare roll
something back? I mean, they basically
did that. It sounds like with What's
that? It might be to see Apple if Apple
actually messes up on design too. Then
yeah, you it's another alarm. They they
sort of admitted that though with the
photos thing, right? Like even in the in
the keynote they talked about, yeah, we
had to go back to the thing that uh that
sort of giving you the option for the
thing that everyone wanted. So
all right, let's end with this. um give
us the state of Apple and with with the
context of something that you mentioned
earlier about uh you you actually wrote
this also in your recap piece just uh
the leaks I think you said that uh such
a leaky boat is never a good sign of
overall company health um
what's what where does that company
stand today and where is it going
um so you know well I was sort of
optimistic about um you know where I
think they can get to and now they I
think they have the fire lit under them
with regard to AI and and you know the
the reporting the Mike Rockwell guy who
was on stage yesterday talking about
Vision OS he's taken over the project it
sounds like um and so I think that
they're they're correcting the ship
there I do still worry at a higher level
about leadership issues and again not
not knowing these people directly it's
hard to sort of speak to it exactly but
again just triangulating everything
that's being reported and everything
both you hear and see the manifestation
of these things Like I do worry that
they just are sort of stuck in this
stubborn mentality of doing things the
old ways and I worry that in you know
the quote unquote age of AI that that's
just not going to sort of cut it
anymore. And I do think that all of the
things that you know you talked about
like they're getting hit from all sides
right now. I think that there there's
probably this weird internal sense and I
think that one thing that drove that
home to me was um you know maybe he'll
speak to it I guess later. I don't know
if you're going to go to it, but they
they apparently are not sending an Apple
exec to John Gruber's uh talk show um
you know event this year for the first
time in a decade, which is a weird
thing. And uh you know, it seems to stem
at least partially from the fact that he
was super critical about their AI, you
know, show for lack of a better
word. Reasonably so. And yes, and
reasonably so, right? he wrote his post
of the something rotten in the state of
Certino and and it seems like as a
result they're um you know they're
they're ghosting him at this event and
so again that sort of speaks to what
we're talking about I think where they
just have this weird mentality and and
to the point of leaks like I mean it is
wild how much German gets like I was a I
was an Apple reporter back in the day I
got a fair amount of Apple scoops
nothing compared to what Mark German
pulls out of Apple and how is getting
those. I mean, I I I have no idea. But
the the mere fact that Apple has not
been able to stop some level of them and
maybe they have, but the fact that they
keep coming, if they stopped one leak
and they keep coming, that's even a
worse situation as it speaks to like the
internal culture stuff. And it wasn't
just Gur this time. 9 to5 Mac is is
former former place of of operation got
a bunch of stuff. There were a bunch of
YouTubers who got a bunch of stuff. It
feels like that is leaking out. And it's
just like this is it's just not a good
uh internal culture, you know, showcase
when all this stuff that's that people
have been work pouring their heart and
souls into uh all year long just leak
out on a on a whim. It's just not a it's
not a good uh it doesn't feel like a
good healthy environment if that's
happening. Definitely. And I'll just end
by saying that the vibes at this event
yesterday couldn't have been diff more
different from the way that it felt a
year prior. Now, part of that is media
hype, but I'll just give you one
example. Last year, uh we were in the
Steve Jobs Theater for Q&A and people
got to hang around the grounds all day
long and event wrapped up uh on Monday.
I was uh you know, looking out from the
broadcast riser because that was
basically where I was allowed to be. And
the Jobs Theater was I I wouldn't call
it empty, but there was basically nobody
there. It was a muted event and a very
very different vibe.
What's your take on um this the stance,
which I agree with even though it's been
a while since I've been to one of these.
Um they need to go back to doing this
live, like not these pre-recorded
things. Oh, 100%. I mean, it's so funny
because I asked to go to the um to the
actual keynote and you know, cuz I I was
uh there for CNBC, so we did the pregame
on halftime report and then we had a
couple hour break while they did the
keynote and then I wanted to come back
and they're like, no, we don't have room
in the keynote. So, and I was like,
okay. And then I like, you know, again
remembered, wait a second, it's just a
bunch of people watching a video on a
screen. Why do we want to be there? I'm
just going to watch on YouTube. So,
yeah, of course, it's just bizarre.
It's it's very weird and it again speaks
to like I don't know is Apple they're
just not reading they're not reading a
number of rooms. They're not reading the
the AI room. They're not reading the
core rooms all around the world. Yeah.
They're not reading any sorts of uh of
things. They just they're stubborn and
and I think that that's it's in the past
uh in some ways that maybe has helped
them, but these days like there's
there's a lot of fires that's that they
need to put out at this point.
All right, folks. Go check out
spyglass.org for MG's writing on Apple
and many of other companies. MG, it's
always great to speak with you. Thanks
for coming on the show. Thanks so much,
Alex. Thanks for having me. All right,
everybody. Thank you for listening. Uh
Ron Johnroy and I will be back on Friday
to break down the week's news, including
Meta's big investment in Scale AI and
Alexander Wang making his way inside the
company. It's going to be a fun show, so
we hope you tune in. We'll see you next
time on Big Technology Podcast.
whatever.