What The Ex-OpenAI Safety Employees Are Worried About
Channel: Alex Kantrowitz
Published at: 2024-07-03
YouTube video id: dzQlRt3y5mU
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzQlRt3y5mU
an exop aai super alignment team member joins us to share his concerns about the company's trajectory along with his lawyer the Harvard law professor Lawrence leig who will shed light on the lack of protections for those who speak out all that and more is coming up right after this welcome to Big technology podcast a show for cool-headed new On's conversation of the tech world and Beyond we have a great show for you today we're finally going to speak with some of the people behind some of the concerns you've been hearing about the the trajectory of open AI especially with regard to the alignment work within the company or really the super alignment work um so we're joined today by a former member of that super alignment team William Saunders is here welcome William thanks for having me on thanks for being here and it's my great pleasure to welcome Larry leig back to the show he's a professor of Law and Leadership at Harvard Law School and he's also representing William pro bono here as he goes uh and I guess many of his colleagues as well as he goes and speaks out about these is isues welcome Larry great to be back let's begin just talking a little bit about the vibe within open AI so William you left a few months ago what was the vibe and the the what was the sense you got of open AI as you were heading out there like take us a little bit inside the company so we can understand the environment from which you're coming out of so during my three years at open AI I would sometimes ask myself uh a question question was the path that like opening eye was on more like the Apollo program or more like the Titanic and you know the Apollo program was about like carefully predicting and assessing risks in doing groundbreaking science um building in enough safeguards to be able to like successfully bring astronauts to the Moon um and then even when big problems happened like Apollo 13 uh they had enough sort of like redundancy and were able to adapt to the situation um in order to bring everyone back safely um whereas the Titanic you know came out of this um competitive race between companies to keep building bigger and bigger ships um and sort of ships that were bigger than the regulations had been designed for um lots of work went into making the ship safe um and and and you know building watertight compartments so that they could say that it was Unsinkable um but at the same time there weren't enough life vots for everyone and so when disaster struck you know a lot of people died um and open AI claimed that their mission was to build safe and beneficial AGI and I thought that this would mean that they would prioritize you know putting safety first um but over time it started to really feel like the decisions being made by leadership were more like the White Star Line uh building the Titanic prioritizing getting out newer shinier products um than you know really feeling like NASA during the days of the Apollo program uh and I really didn't want to end up working on the Titanic of AI um and so that's why I resigned it's kind of interesting that you use those examples and not the Manhattan Project which is kind of the one that's been people have brought up like the power and the destruction potential of nuclear energy has uh been been something that's been talked about and I don't know if Sam has compared himself to Oppenheimer but I've definitely heard some people make those comparisons why did you shy away from that as long as we're going through the analogy lens why do you shy away from that one I think that is another valid analogy um you know I think this example of the Titanic you know makes it sort of clear that there were like again like a uh you know safety decisions that could have been made better or something right I think the Manhattan Project is more the analogy for like the scope of impact that this technology could have the companies are claiming this technology will have and are raising you know billions and billions of dollars uh based on this premise of the scope of impact I think it's also a tale of sort of scientists who set out building a technology wanting to do something good in the world right the the the reason the Manhattan Project got started is because science scientists looked at what was coming what was possible and were terrified that you know Adolf Hitler would get the bomb right and that this would be you know U absolutely terrial for the world and that's why they went to the Americans but somewhere along the way uh you know at some point like Hitler you know was dead Germany had surrendered and yet the project went on you know um and again that's another situation that like I would really not like to find myself in right and I was going to ask you whether you think openai is a product or research company and obviously it's both but the question is what leads and reading between the lines or maybe just hearing you explicitly your belief is it's a product company is that right um yeah product or research I think it's I I do think openingi if it was it's it's a bit different from just trying to make like the products that are most useful today it's coupled with a vision of the research for um how to build towards something called AGI or artificial general intelligence which is uh you know Building Systems that um are you know as smart as most humans and can do most economically valuable work that humans can do AKA can like do most jobs of people and so it's like the combination of these Visions or something is is is something that I'm more concerned about it's where that that they're like building on a trajectory where they are going to do like AGI as stated will be a tremendous change to the world um and so it's they're on this trajectory to like change the world and yet when you know they they release things their priorities are more like a product company uh and I think that is like what is most unsettling okay so let's let's keep that in mind and get back to it in a bit but you also worked on super alignment which is anticipating that this is going to grow Beyond human capabilities can you talk a little bit about what the super alignment team does or did actually since it's now dissolved yeah so um again there's this idea of building you know AGI which is like about a smart as a human and then from there companies will want to go and build super intelligence if you have the the blueprint for building something as smart as a human then you like run a bunch of copies of it and they try to figure out how to improve the Brew plant and make itself even smarter um and then this this creates sort of um this problem of what do you do if you know you're trying to get advice or you're delegating decisions to someone who is like genuinely smarter or more informed than you you know um like let's say you have like you know an expert lawyer um you know who is like smarter than you and knows the law better than you how do you know if the advice that you're getting from them is good when you're not a lawyer yourself um and so like this is the kind of problem uh that we would try to tackle in sort of um in in in the AI context if you have an AI That's producing answers and you can't immediately tell are these answers good or bad so it's not about like you know Google you to like eat rocks everyone knows this is bad but if you go to Google for advice on a medical question that you don't understand or advice on you know like a scientific question uh where you don't know the answer you can't really tell and so like what some of the research that I did at open AI was you know trying to develop techniques for this and the simple technique that we tried and show that worked was just ask a different AI system or even the same AI system is there a problem with this answer you gave me and then the AI will sometimes put out a list of problems and say like hey this part of the answer was like made up it's not supported by any evidence or you're leaving out this important piece of information and then we showed that if you just if you show people both an answer and a set of possible problems people are better at spotting um when the AI system has made a mistake right and so this is an example of how do you like try to you know deal with the situation where you're getting advice or you're getting answers and information and you can't tell immediately whether it's correct Y and so you're able to do this work within openai uh yet you did leave out of some concerns and then you came out with this letter recently talking about how there needs to be a right for people within these companies to warn the public about some of the concerns they have here's a quote from the letter there is no Effective Government oversight of these corporations current or former current and former employees are among the few people who can hold them accountable to the public yet broad confidentially broad confidentiality agreements block us from voicing our concerns so we're going to get into those agreements in a bit with Larry but you obviously signed the agreement you're here talking today the main question I think the public has from you and the people who have signed this letter is did you see something like did you see something concerning enough inside the company to Merit speaking out here and if so what was it well I I want to actually make sure that we're clear about what we're going to talk about here so um it's perfectly fine to say whether there was something was seen but the reason for the letter is that answering the second part of your question what exactly did you see uh is very difficult because to the extent what you did see is within the scope of a confidentiality agreement that's the very concern that the right to warn is trying to address so I mean William obviously when we talked and is quite competent to make this kind of Distinction but I want to make sure that we're not trying of walking down a path that's going to actually trigger the kind of concern that the letter was trying to respond to but okay so so let's just talk about that because we've talked about this on the show a bunch and the main concern that we have here is if members of the super alignment team or members of the team within open AI saw something I mean you're talking about like again like this PO this thing that we've already compared to the Titanic and and nuclear weapons if you've seen something concerning enough inside the company that sort of merits an alarm isn't it a duty to share that with the public no matter what the sort of legal ramifications might be now I know it's easy for me to say in my position um and and maybe you don't even have to share the specific like thing although i' prefer you do but the question of did was there was is there a piece of technology inside that company that we don't know about that is Rises to the concern of let's say Titan even Titanic level proportions that you're concerned and want to warn about like I feel like we should just hear what it is so to set some things clear if there was if if there was a group of people that I knew were being seriously harmed by this technology first I still really hope that open AI would like do the right thing and address this if this was like a a very clear-cut case um I also personally would um you know ignore any sort of like uh considerations of how I might be retaliated against and I would talk about that plainly um so that's not what I was seeing it's also I don't think that I was working on the Titanic I don't think that gp4 was the Titanic I more am afraid that like GPT 5 or GPT 6 or gpt7 might be the Titanic um in in in this analogy and so I can talk about um maybe like a couple of areas here uh so one is the a former colleague on the super alignment team leopo Ashen Brunner has like talked on a podcast about how he you know was like looking you know asking some questions about like how the internal security uh was working at the company and then uh you know wrote a document containing some concerns he shared this around um he then got reprimanded uh because you know some of the concerns um offended some people and you know personally I would have like written it in a different way um and I think but the dist the disturbing part of this was that you know um the only response was reprimanding the person who raised the these concerns right it might be reasonable to reprimand the person and then be like like okay but these parts of these concerns we're taking these seriously and we're going to address them that was not the response and then he later talked about like this was one of the reasons uh that was offered for him being fired um so I guess what I'm narrowing I'll let you do the the other example in a second but like what I'm narrowing down on is the people that have raised concerns within the super alignment team it's not like they've all seen some powerful dangerous technology that they don't believe uh open AI like in the immediate term they don't believe open is going to handle appropriately it's more of like what what is the path in the future and that's where this right to warn thing comes down I'll say at the beginning we're going to get into right to Warrant I'm fully in favor of this right to warrant and I'm really glad that you brought it up but I think that it's important for the public just to establish that like inside open AI today there's this group that's just left it's not like there was this question like did ilas see something right did you guys see something it's not that there's something immediate and harmful that you've seen it's more of like you're concerned about the path that this company can go down is that right yeah and I think you know this right to warrn this is a right to warn responsibly this is not a right to like um you know the like uh you know cause like unnecessary Panic or something um but and I am most of my research was driven by again concerns along this trajectory that the companies are going along have demonstrated progress on and are raising billions of dollars to keep going along this trajectory but I do think there could be like there could be things happening today that we don't know about and so um the the sort of scenario that I'm worried about happening today is suppose that there's some group of people that wants to you know spread a lot of disinformation on on social media let's say they want to manipulate an election or they want to you know Insight violence um against a minority ethnic group and let's say that they're in a non-english speaking country um and so you know again most of the people at open ey speak English most of the alignment work is done in English and so like it would be you know somewhat harder for the the the company to notice this now like the models are like safety trained um to like refuse requests to do things that are inappropriate um you know or like that that seem like they might be harmful now you know open AI has like caught actors like generating disinformation um and so clearly they were able to either like you know the safe the safety training didn't apply or they were able to bypass it right there's this technique of jailbreaking where you like change how you frame the request um in order to like bypass the safety limits maybe you just ask it in a different language or you tell some story around it so now you got a group of people they have the ability to like get the model to like you know go along generating um lots of disinformation um and then you know the the the other line of defense that you might have here would be monitoring um the company looking at it and I have you know concerns that like there might be a lot of ways that monitoring might miss things um so for example like some systems that the company has talked about involve using a very like small and dumb language model to like monitor what a larger language model is doing and this will like clearly miss a bunch of things um you know or there are like there might be ways to like send requests in that like go through some pathway that is just not subject uh to monitoring or like you know the the people can't look at what the what the actual requests and the the completions are just because the company just doesn't store that um and so now you might have a group of people like generating massive amounts of disinformation using like opening eye products and you know the company wouldn't know about it um and it's like you know in this in this case if this happens in an English speaking country you know somebody might notice and eventually tweet about it and the company would like find out through that pathway right but if it's in a non-english speaking country right you know I don't know how big it could get before people would notice and I really would want a company like taking this kind of step to you know have here you know th this is a scary story right tell me why this tell me why this can't happen and like you know have somebody who is outside of the company who can like have an independent assessment that can say like yes this can't happen you know and then I will like be able to rest easy um but I can't yeah and I want to get to Larry here because we should talk about the broader context here which is that first of all Believe It or Not William is the first open AI employee that we've had on the show in four years he's the first one expressing criticism of open AI from within or like from previously within for four years and recently we kind of had a you know at least from the from the former employee standpoint we had we figured out why and that is because there are these broad non-disclosure agreements that um that opening eye employees have to sign before they leave so I think we're going to talk about those first and then we'll talk a little bit about this uh I guess new regulation or law that you are advoc you're both advocating for which is basically a law that's going to allow employees to or I don't know a rule that will allow employees to whistleblow even if there's nothing imminently illegal uh that's happening within but let's talk about the ndas first so when people leave open aai what are they forced to sign and why has that made it so difficult for people like William to speak out okay but I want to actually First tag on to something William just said great which I guess I think it's really important you know I first got into this space of whistleblowing protection helping Francis hgan um who was the Facebook whistleblower and what William just described of course is what happened inside of Facebook with the um myamar rongi um genocide um which was basically the technology wasn't able to monitor the hate uh that was being spread by the government in that country um which led to you know tens of thousands of people being murdered um and while this is happening people in the company are trying to raise the alarms um and the company's not willing to devote the resources necessary to address the harm that they are able to demonstrate their company's performance that is committing and the reason why that experience is relevant is it's it shows exactly why you can't rely on the company alone when you've got a company in a deeply competitive market that's focused on a you know Facebook's had a single Dimension which is like user engagement like are we continuing to meet our our Target and uh an employee you know there are a lot of great engineers in that company who raised concerns that were valid and and serious but if they're inconsistent with the objective the company it's not going to do anything about it um and so that's the structure uh that's uh re real in Silicon Valley that you've got to build around and that's why what we what we're talking about which we'll get to in a second as you've said uh uh guarantees that any concerns that are raised are not just raised to the company they're raised to people outside the company who can do something about it now as to the what you know what you Bound by I got connected to this group this incredible group of open AI um employees employees when I read about um uh the struggle that Daniel um had gone through where um another X open AI employee yeah who who sign the agreement who who believed as he was leaving that by not signing an agreement he was giving up as New York Times reported um something like $1.7 million in equity um and and when I read that I was like you know wow I mean I don't know many people who would give up $1.7 million just for the freedom to speak um that's interesting like what is it that you think you need to say um and when he raised that concern and it we began to talk to people in the circle of the company very quickly the company realized um that the agreements they were forcing people to sign were technically just not legal agreements in the state of California um Equity is wage in the state of California if you earn Equity you're vested Equity it's like your wages and when you leave they can't say oh here's a bunch of other additional uh agree uh terms you must agree to in order to take what you've already earned so the non-disparagement part any other additional obligations that were uh demanded were not actually obligations that could be enforced and right now um the company's in the process of revising and um putting together exit packages that are consistent with the law and um I'm optimistic we're not nothing settled yet but I'm optimistic we going to get to place that the company's rules are exactly right that they you know they say you're leaving remember you've got secrets you can't share um and uh don't um but um of course you're allowed to share secrets with government uh uh investigators or people who are doing um work with the government for safety purposes they're not trying to block any of that and to the extent they do that what they're doing um is consist is going to be consistent with the law but we're in a transition right now and it's not yet fully resolved exactly how much they've accomplished and how much this still needs to be done okay so that's the the it's interesting so those non-disparagement that employees had to sign or else they could face their Equity being clawed back seems like they're both like non- enforceable and potentially being revised which is very interesting good news um I think open AI also says that they've never clawed back any Equity nor they ever intend to but it's making people sign the agreement is strong enough but then's that's right because I mean I've spoken to ex employees who've said look I've not done XY and Z because I've feared the club act so they can say they never enforced it they didn't need to enforce it to have the effect which it had for a significant number of people especially when you've got you know uh people who are being very um conscientious about the kind of obligation they're going to accept for themselves or not and so if they sign something like that they're going to live up to it so it has an effect whether whether they enforced it or not and that's the problem with the agreement right and then so that's when people leave so the deeper question is what happens if people are inside the company and they see something they don't like and are they able to speak out because let me see if I get this right in a normal whistleblower situation let's say you're an Enron and you see the company committing tax fraud that's obviously illegal you'd be protected on whistleblower statutes but if you're within let's say an open Ai and you find that the development of the technology is moving towards artificial general intelligence or super intelligence in a way that you find dangerous you're not allowed to say anything because we don't have any laws against developing super intelligence so there's actually so there's two things that go together that's very important in this context so one thing you're right there's not a lot of regulations so there's not an FAA or an FDA um um sitting on top of the company that has imposed regulations that the companies either living up to or not living up to um but you know some agencies like the SEC takes the view that most anything could potentially be the sort of thing you'd have privilege to complain to the SEC about because it could potentially affect the the value of the company and to the extent it's potentially affecting the value of the company it raises SEC concerns so if you say you're following the following safety regime as the company in order to make sure AGI is safe and then you don't follow that regime the sec's view is you can come out and tell the SEC you can you can whistleblow to the SEC and the SEC would um consider whether that's something to act on the problem is this is the second part Engineers inside of companies like this or policy people inside of companies like this need to have confidence that the people they're talking to know what the hell they're talking about right so it's one thing to imagine you know an AI safety Institute where you can imagine going to that and talking to people like you people who have a really good sense of like what the risks are what the technology is and explaining here's why you think there's a concern it's another thing to imagine like calling the SEC and telling the SEC here are the seven safety related concerns that I have because you're you're very anxious that they understand it and are able to act on it in the appropriate way and so that's why this is a kind of unique situation it's both that there's not adequate regulation so there's no regulator on the scene and that it's a technical field that doesn't easily open up to like non-technical lawyer types the sorts that are going to be working at the SEC and that's why you know when I spoke to the um the employees that I representing it became clear that they wanted to kind of craft something that was different and new and that's what the structure of the right to Warren is trying to produce so are you advocating for both a new regulatory agency and a rule to protect AI whistleblowers what are you going to try to get at here well my own View and I won't speak for the uh my clients here my own view is um yeah absolutely there needs to be a regulatory agency that is overseeing this I'm not sure what the structure of it is it's kind of academic to talk about it given the dysfunction of the federal government right now but yes I other countries are building things like this and we ought to be doing the same um um and if there were such an agency it itself would have lots of whistleblower protections built in and that would maybe obviate a significant chunk of the need for the rule but the rule that we're talking about is a rule that initially we're trying to get um companies to embrace um you know I think the most interesting part of The Whistleblower the right to warn is the third point where it talks about creating a culture of criticism where the company says look we want you to critize us we want you to tell us what's going wrong um we want to encourage that we're not going to punish that because that's the way we become the safest kind of company that we could be uh and so that's really about create uh the company itself creating that and then the other part that I think is really critical is that the company says we agree if we create we we'll create this uh structure that says you can complain to us and to a regulator and to an independent uh AI uh like a safety Institute you can do all three of those things confidentially and anonymously um and if we do that we expect you will use that channel um and if we don't do that we acknowledge you can use whatever channel is necessary to make sure that these safety concerns are out there but that's obviously designed to create a strong incentive for them to build a channel for warning that protects but opening I would say they already have that channel for warning so this is what they've said in the Press reports they say they have avenues for employees to express their concern including an anonymous Integrity hotline and a deployment safety board that they run products through right but that's the company alone so what I said is it has to be all three of those things together right right so it's the company and the regulator and the AI safety Institute so that again like we saw with Facebook lot of complaints were made to sa Facebook about the safety or the lack of safety of their product the company didn't do anything about it and so the concern here is you need to have external review as well and that's why the channel has got to be a channel that goes to three of these entities so that you know we have some confidence that somebody's going to do something if there's something that has to be done well I'm just curious from your perspective do you think going to the SEC Like Larry described is something that you or your colleagues would consider given you know if there were things that you saw that didn't sort of hold to the safety protocols that opening eye had lined out or is that a non-starter it's a really important point about the SEC it's one of the great things about the SEC is that anybody going to the SEC goes there confidentially and anonymously which creates this weird circumstance that you know um it's a hard question to ask uh somebody in this context right because what they how could they answer honestly in the context of this but you know it is interesting to figure out whether you know William you know is it enough would you imagine it's enough just to have something like the SEC as a way to complain about this yeah so what I would really want if I went to whistleblow is to you know have like somebody on the other end of the phone or the other end of the message line who I know really understands the technology and I don't know to you know who at the SEC would be the person who would really understand the technology um I think that like a model that I think might work you know I I I think I personally think would work better would be like the model more proposed in California um Senate Bill 1047 where there would be like a you know where the law would create like you know uh the the office of the the California attorney general um as a place where you could submit whistle blower complaints too and you could have like you know if you had uh employees who understood the technology there and you could talk to them you know and ideally this doesn't doesn't need to be like ideally this is not a high stakes conversation ideally you can just like call up somebody at the government and say like hey I think this might be going like a little bit wrong what do you think about it and like talk to them and they can gather the information and then hopefully they say like okay this isn't actually that bad you know and then you can like get on with your day um you know I think the thing to fight for here is like being able to really like you know talk about things before they become big problems um and in that circumstance the SEC is insufficient you know going to the SEC sounds like very intimidating um and you know it it sounds like the sort of thing one would only do you know like you know it would be again it would be better to be like you know again like be able to to talk to somebody in some agency who understands the technology and understands you know what the the the safety like system should look like um one more question about this potential agency would they have then sort of penalty power or what sort of power would they have um and would it require like effectively like a new law to be to be written what are the technicalities once it comes to Federal level absolutely it would take a law I mean you know agencies like the FTC believe they have lots of inherent jurisdiction that they could set up something that would be close to this but the kind of thing that would convince people like William um would require legislation the way California is 1047 like has legislative um uh structures that they're creating um and what's interesting about this type of legislation is that you know your P Doom does not have to be extremely high to believe that it makes sense to have a system of warning like you don't put a uh you know a fire alarm inside of a school because you really believe the school's going to burn down it's just that if the school's on fire there ought to be a way to pull in alarm right and so what's interesting about making the argument for this type of uh ability to warn is that you can bring along people who are not yet convinced there's something really to worry about here it's not the end of uh end of days um and just say look let's just have an infrastructure in place um at least you can see why there could be a problem uh and if you agree that there could be a problem let's just make sure it doesn't manifest into something really destructive and then again on the enforcement question what would this agency be able to do if it actually sees an issue Alex it's a great question I haven't thought about it um I mean because you know enforcement modern enforcement needs to be very different from you know historical enforcement here so it's not you know if it's going to satisfy Williams objective that it doesn't you know it feels like an ordinary thing that you can do without believing you're getting the company shut down there's got to be some moderation and an opportunity for like just engagement um you know it's interesting to think in the context of like do doctors I mean I'm don't know this firsthand obviously but you know surgeons um and hospitals have procedures for like reporting and talking about mistakes that have been made um and a certain immunity that goes with that to encourage that kind of conversation um and I would think that that that kind of creative thinking might be helpful here the objective is not to shut anybody down or to sue anybody for billions of dollars it's just to make sure that the technology is safe uh and and to and to use or utilize the people who are closest to the technology and could have the best insight about what the problem is and what could we do about it great well I have a few more questions that build off what some of the former colleagues of William have said within open a uh and then more about the nature of the company and where we might be heading so let's do that right after this and we're back here on big technology podcast with William Sounders he's a former open AI super alignment team member now here with us expressing his concerns William I can't thank you enough for being here and being open about this stuff and we're also here with Larry leig the professor of Law and Leadership at Harvard Law School also representing William and some of his former colleagues so here's like a couple questions um that that have come up in discussions of this after you've gone public um so let me let me start with this one so Yan Lea who used to run the um open AI open AI super alignment team which you were on he said that safety culture and processes have taken a backseat to shiny products within open a we've discussed that already here so there's an argument that's being made online and I I'm just going to put it out there and would love to hear your thoughts on this William that basically the argument is that the group The Super alignment group didn't really see anything and that the company doesn't really expect to see anything super dangerous for a while and so it's reasonably putting like the 20% of compute that I was going to give to the super alignment team toward product until the time comes where it makes sense to shift that resources back to alignment work what do you think about that again I don't think the super alignment team saw like you know this is a catastrophe and it's like endangering people now I think what we were seeing is a trajectory that the company is Raising billions of dollars to go down that leads to somewhere with predictable unsolved technical problems like how do you supervise something that's smarter than you how do you make a model that can't be jailbroken to do whatever you know any unethical user wants it to do um how do and and more fundamentally behind this you know how do we understand what's going on inside of these language models which is what I was working on you know for the second my career and I was leading you know a team of four people doing this interpretability research and like we just fundamentally don't know how they how they work inside unlike you know any other technology known to man um and you know there's a there's a research community that is like trying to figure this out and we're making progress um but I'm like terrified that we're not going to make progress you know fast enough before we have something dangerous and you know what people were talking about at the company in terms of timelines to something dangerous were like there were people talking a lot of people talking about similar things to like the predictions of like Leopold Ashen Brunner where it's like 3 years towards like you know uh wildly transformative AGI um and so I think you know when the the company is like talking about this I think that they have a duty to put in the work to prepare for that and when you know the super alignment team formed and the compu commitment was made you know I thought that like maybe they were finally going to take that seriously and we could finally like get together and figure out the like you know I I could concentrate on the hard technical problems we're going to need to get right um before we have something truly dangerous but you know that's not what happened right some people say that this conversations like this are kind of doing open ai's marketing work for it that basically like if this technology could potentially like level cities within a few years then like I don't know McKenzie is going to definitely get in there and try to contract with gp4 what what do you think about that conversation I certainly don't feel like what I'm saying here is doing marketing for open AI okay um I think you know we need to be able to have like a serious and conversation about the risks and risks are not certainties there's a lot of uncertainty about what could happen but when you are uncertain about what should happen you should be preparing for worst case scenarios right the best time to prepare for Co was not when like it had spread everywhere but when you could start seeing it spreading and you could be like there's a significant chance um that it will continue spreading you know right so uh this is for both you and Larry so Joshua AIA who's a open aai employee currently he sort of took issue with the letter on a couple of areas I'm just going to read from a tweet thread that he put out there he said the disclosure of confidential information from Frontier Labs however well intentioned can be outright dangerous this letter asks for a policy that would in effect give safety staff cart blanch to make disclosures at Will based on their own judgment and he says I think this is obviously crazy the letter didn't have to ask for a policy so arbitrarily Broad and so underdefined something narrowly scoped around discussions of risk without confidential material would have been perfectly sufficient what do you think about that so what's interesting about that is it I think it means that he didn't actually read the full um agreement uh um right to warn that we were talking about because the right to warm we were talking about actually talked about creating an incentive so that no confidential information would be re released to the public if they had this structure you know imagine a portal again where you can connect with the company and with a regulator and with something like an AI safety Institute together the deal was that's what you would use and you wouldn't be putting any information out in the public the only way that you would the the right to Warrant asks uh for recognition of the right to speak to the public if that is if that does not exist so I I when I read that I was like wow it's missing the most important part which is a incentive to build something that doesn't require information is released to the public um so long as there's adequate alternative channel for that information to flow and what about this idea that getting something like this established might keep safety staff out of product meetings here's again from uh Joshua chm he says good luck getting product staff to add you to meetings and involve you in sensitive discussions if you hold up a flag that says I will Scutter Scuttle your launch or talk [ __ ] about it later if I feel morally obligated I mean that's like I guess sort of traditional Silicon Valley thinking but I'm curious what you both think about that okay William maybe we go with you first yeah this is not something that I want to achieve um but you know and I think again these like the this is a right that should be used responsibly and so that if you know you're involved in decision making and you feel like you don't you you disagree with the outcome but you feel like a good faith process is followed you know you should be willing to you should be willing to respect that and I think kneeling this down where it you know getting the right balance of of you know the legal rights on this is going to be tricky and you know I I you know I want to get that right but this is more like starting a conversation of where it should be and I think that like you know I again I think on the other side companies shouldn't have you know cart blanch to like declare any information about possible harms uh confidential um but yeah it's it's it's going to be any implementation of this you know is going to get more detailed and more nuanced trying to defend both you know the company's legitimate rights to you know confidential information that like preserves their competitiveness and also the like rights of employees to you know warn the public when something is going wrong the other thing is I mean even if there is the dynamic that you described um there's also so within a company there's also an uh uh dynamic between companies so if a company were to embrace the right to war in the way we've discussed it um there would be a lot of people like William or others who would say that's the kind of company I want to work for and so the that company would achieve an advantage of talent um um that might you know swamp any cost that they're paying because they're being you know anxious about who they're sharing safety concerns with number one number two you know again inside of Facebook of course there were people inside of Facebook is that I don't care what we're doing I don't care what the world how the world's suffering because what they're doing you know what do I care about 10,000 people dying in a country I've never heard of yeah they're mostly not like that though yeah they're mostly not like that these are really smart decent people who went to work for these companies because they're trying to make the world better especially AI companies like people who went to work for open AI at the beginning didn't even have any conception of what open AI was going to be like today like the idea that it made the progress it did um was you know a surprise to most people so these are the very best motivated people that you could imagine and I'm not worried that you're going to have a bunch of people who are like I don't care what we do to the world we're just trying to make sure our stock achieves its maximum return right and so obviously this will take some buying uh from the top of companies and there I mean this is a particularly interesting one with uh with Sam Alman at the head of open AI so Sam you know he has talked often about how he cares about AI safety there have been some interesting quotes from him like early on he's like I think there's a good chance that AI is going to wipe us out but in the meantime there are a lot of companies that can make some money from it U I'm I'm sure I'm misquoting him but that was the spirit of of the quote and then William you spoke with the New York Times I believe talking about your uh view of Sam and oversight you said I do I'm pretty sure this is you I do think with Sam Alman in particular he's very uncomfortable with oversight and accountability I think it's telling that every group that maybe could provide oversight to him including the board and the Safety and Security committee Sam Alman feels the need to personally be on and nobody can say no to him so just curious like what your message would be to him and sort of what type of leader do you think he is in you know and in this moment you know I think I don't recall the exact words but I think Sam mman has also said like no one should be trusted with you know this much power um I think he then went on to like say like oh I don't think that's happening but you know I think my message would really be like you know if you want people to trust you like you should have real systems of accountability and oversight that you know um and like not try to avoid that right can I ask just one more question about like what it's like inside open AI because this is sort of like um been the message that that we've gotten from you and some of your counterparts who have made these uh you know sort of declarations about what's going on this idea of like that it's shiny products and safety and culture safety takes a backseat like how does that manifest internally when there are product launches and things like that like how did you see that actually play out or like you were was your team like not giv a seat at the table or what happened and I was mostly not in the part of the company that was like participating in product launches I was doing this research to prepare for the problems that are like coming down the road um but I think you know what that can look like is the difference between like you know we have a fixed launch date and we'll like rearrange everything to meet that versus you know when there's a like safety Pro safety process like like testing how dangerous the systems are or like you know putting things together where there is like not enough time to do this before the launch date being willing to move it you know and it's um I do think you know now with like uh the the GPT 40 voice mode uh the company did say that they were like you know pushing the launch back um but I think you know the again the the the real question here is are the people who are doing the safety work and doing the testing for Dangerous capabilities like are they actually you know able to to to have the time and support to do their job uh before the launch and you know I think a company can say that they're like pushing something back for safety but still like not have all the work done by that time okay last question for both of you so I think we've established that there's no like immediate term like threat to Society or like let's say like Titanic sinking style event that could happen with AI but what's the time frame that you think that these concerns might start to creep in given the trajectory of this technology we've talked a little bit today about how Leupold believes like maybe within 3 years but I'm curious like yeah what the time frame is and then is there is there like the like the Frog boiling in the water problem where like this might only become a problem uh when we've sort of become immune to it because we've heard so much about the dangers here even as like chat GPT will hallucinate very basic details yeah so I think like leopole talks about some scenario of like you get AI systems that could sort of like be drop in like remote replacements for remote workers do anything that you could get a remote worker to do and then you could start applying this to like you know uh the development of more AI technology and like other science and that sort of thing happening within you know like the threeyear time frame and then this coming with you know a dramatic increase in the um amount of risk that you could have from either like you know misuse if if anyone can hire an unethical biology PhD student does it then make it a lot easier for like you know nefarious groups to conduct uh like you create biological weapons um or also just do we like start putting these systems everywhere in our businesses and decision-making roles and then we've like put them you know in place in our society and then like you know a scenario that I think about is these systems become very good at deceiving and manipulating people in order to increase their own power um relative to Society at large and even you know the people who are like running these companies um and I'm you know not as convinced about Leopold that this is necessarily going to come soon soon but I think you know there's maybe like a 10% probability that this happens within 3 years and then I think in this situation it is unconscionable to race towards this without doing your best to prepare and get things right um yeah and I would add to that by just reflecting on the cultural difference between um people who are in the business of setting up regulatory infrastructures to address safety concerns in General and people who are in this industry so when people in this industry are saying look between 3 and 5 years it's probably a 10 maybe 20 maybe 30% chance we're going to have AGI like capabilities and that's going to create all sorts of risks um in the safety culture world you know outside of these tech companies 3 to five years is the time it takes just to even understand that there's a problem right so anybody who expects you're going to set up an infrastructure of safety regulation in 3 to five years just doesn't understand how Washington or the real world works right so this is why I feel anxious about this it's not that I'm worried that in three to five years um everything's going to blow up it's just that I'm convinced that it takes 10 years to get to a place that we have an infrastructure of Regulation that we can count on and if we're talking about 10 years what is the real estimate of um this technology manifesting these very dangerous um uh characteristics um seems to be from what people on the inside are saying um pretty significant so that's why even if it's not a problem today or tomorrow or next year or the year after we have to you know it's a huge aircraft carrier we've got a turn and it takes a long time to get it to turn and that work has got to begin today and uh I'll I'll just add that you know in the real world with the Titanic right you didn't have regulation that guaranteed that you have enough life boats until the Titanic actually sunk right and I am on the side of we should have regulation before the Titanic sinks y I mean man all that money uh to get on that boat and then no life jacket seems brutal all right William thank you so much for uh coming here spending the time um addressing some of the criticisms and being forthcoming about what your concerns are I mean hearing from you after you've SP some time on the inside has has been Illuminating to me and I think it will be for our listeners as well so thanks so much for coming on thank you and Larry always great speaking with you thank you for bringing uh such great analysis to the show every time you're on and I hope we can speak again soon every time you ask thanks for having me okay thanks so much all right everybody thanks so much for listening we'll be back on Friday breaking down the week's news with Ronan Roy until then hope you take care and we'll see you 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