AI Keynote: Six Bold Predictions About The Future Of Artificial Intelligence

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2023-11-23

YouTube video id: ayxxzzxO1Yg

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayxxzzxO1Yg

I'm going to feed off your energy so
let's go back and forth here my name is
Alex canitz I'm the host of Big
technology podcast and I also write big
technology you can find it at Big
technology.com I speak with people in
the AI field every single day and based
off of those conversations I'm about to
take you through what I think is about
to happen in the AI world over the next
year so you all remember last year
November 2022 huge moment chat GPT is
released and as you can see from the
headlines on the screen nobody really
had any idea what this thing was what it
was going to become what were the
benefits what were the liabilities well
fast forward two months from then and
Chachi PT becomes the fastest growing
consumer product in history more than a
100 million people in two months use
that thing and all of a sudden we're
like wait a second something's happening
here today you search Google will
generative AI right with the whole field
that chat GPT has ushered in and you
have so many questions will generative
AI a lot of people are worried about
jobs we'll cover that but still a year
in we're all here because we're trying
to figure out what this is going to
amount to let's get to our predictions
my first prediction is that open AI
which is the leader in the field today
is going to lose the throne that's right
open AI will lose the throne it will
still factor in but it's not going to be
the leader in the field that it is today
now I see lot of skeptical looks in the
audience so allow me to make the
case first things first open AI did what
it did with an amazing strength but that
strength is also vulnerability and what
I'm saying is that open AI took publicly
available models the Transformer mod
model in particular that was invented
within Google and made the world's most
popular product right it said we're
going to use this model and we're going
to make a chatbot that takes this
pre-existing technology and turns it
into something people are going to want
want to use that's great but the problem
is that now a year later all these other
companies have taken this publicly
available data and said we're going to
make our own too so now instead of just
having gp4 standing alone as a model you
have anthropic which was founded by exop
aai employees and by the way they didn't
steal IP you have Google's in the market
and they're researching what everybody
says is going to be an even better mod
than GPT 4 in Gemini so stay tuned for
that Facebook is in the market with
llama 2 and then you also have Elon Musk
coming in with grock right I I think all
of the um models on the screen with the
exception of grock are going to have a a
chance of really making some waves now
and I'm sorry Elon Musk but what happens
when this technology is
commoditized prices come down and uh
event after event we see open AI talk
about how everything's getting cheaper
people are going to build more and yes
it's exciting When You're Building
Technology and it's good for everybody
building but unfortunately when the
prices come down that means for open AI
that the models compress and when the
models compress you become a less
powerful
company now listen you've had the models
commoditized the models the the margins
compress and what does that mean it
means that open AI is in the hits
business they have to not only sit on
Chachi PT and sit on Dolly 3 and make
millions and billions of dollars based
off of these products and the models
underlying them but they have to
continually be building new models and
new products in order to stay on top
they actually had one that they tried to
release earlier this year and it never
saw the light of day and when you're hit
in the hits business taking money in and
pushing hits out is never so easy as
people in Hollywood right you're not
going to get an amazing film just
because you're spending money on it and
I know there are probably some fans of
the new Amazon Lord of the Rings uh uh
series that they have on Prime but
that's a prime
example the other thing that open AI is
facing is the open source threat what
you're looking at on the screen is a
Google Engineers words and this person
said listen we have our own models but
the open-source movement is growing so
quickly that we have no mo this Google
engineer was honest about Google and
they were honest about open Ai and
why is there no mode there's a
three-step process that most companies
are building when it comes to building
with generative AI the first is you
start with open AI why open AI has the
models that are easiest to use they have
apis they are well known and they've
been doing this for longer than anybody
else but then something happens as you
grow you go from the plug- andplay
solution to creating a product that you
can put any model in and it will work
exactly the same and that's what Michael
mcnano of VC at Lightspeed Venture
Partners is telling me in a recent
edition of big technology podcast so you
go from the API and then you move to a
way where any model plugs in because one
model might be better for your product
you don't want to be wedded to one
company's model forever and then finally
you go to open source because open
source allows you to customize uh in a
way that you can't by just plugging in
to an API oh and then there's this guy
now Mark Zuckerberg saw that Sam Alman
and open AI built the uh fastest growing
consumer product in history in chat GPT
there's one thing having spoken with
Mark Zuckerberg that I know he doesn't
like and that's when other consu other
companies build consumer products that
do better than him and you're I see some
people laughing but get in the cage with
Mark Zuckerberg and then we'll see what
happens right this guy does not like
being in fights that he thinks he might
lose or or he might uh you know take a
punch in the face and therefore he's
going after open AI with that open
source model that I spoke about earlier
llama 2 which is the leader in open
source right now and some more chatbots
that we're going to talk about in a
moment finally we're going to move uh
not finally we're getting ahead of
myself we're going to move from Big
models to smaller models big models
inefficient smaller models efficient
we're going to go from Arnold
Schwarzenegger models to Danny DeVito
models great movie by the way and then
finally what you see on screen is a
screenshot from open AI developer day
that by the way I'm familiar with the
format it's called a broh hug and it's
happening between Sam Alman the CEO of
openai and saan Adella the CEO of
Microsoft something happens when you
broh hug with a big Tech CEO it means
that you are much more likely to work
with them and much less likely to work
with their competitors not to mention
the fact that Microsoft owns 49% of open
Ai and so that means that if you're a
developer you're you to work with open
AI you're probably going to want to use
Azure but there are so many different
Cloud platforms including the leader
from Amazon that you're not going to be
able to work with as easily now it's
potentially a benefit to open AI because
this uh uh sync with Microsoft could end
up leading them to a place where they're
able to build better models that perform
better because they're this close but
let me tell you something the best way
to win in Tech is to be everywhere and
open AI they might be everywhere but it
won't be as easy to work with them
because they're so wetted to Microsoft
maybe not an immediate problem but watch
this is definitely something that I
think you need to pay attention to all
right we're still in prediction one so
let's sum it up the four problem or six
problems that open AI is running into
model commoditization margin compression
they're in the hits business there's an
open- Source threat we're moving to
smaller models and they're just a bit
too close to Microsoft I see some
cameras so at least you know it seems
like there's some some response to this
argument maybe a little bit different
than when you saw Joffrey on the screen
5 Seconds earlier so who's going to win
who's going to benefit here look this is
the old ancient meme of Jeff Bezos as
the original book seller saying yeah you
know I I sell books on the internet and
then Jeff Bezos becomes this
multi-billionaire and he says I sell
whatever the f I want that's the
evolution of
Microsoft my perspective here is that
Amazon will now become the everything
store for AI models and that is going to
put it in the lead of the arms race does
that mean it's going to win the AI arms
race I don't think so we don't know yet
but is there going to be a moment where
everybody looks and says wow Amazon is
the leader of this race yes I definitely
think that's coming why is the case
first of all Amazon has a bring your own
model approach instead of being wedded
to an open AI Amazon says listen what I
want is for you to work on Amazon web
services it doesn't matter what you use
because remember we talked about margin
compression in the beginning of this
Amazon's going to make its money not by
using its own llm although it has one
it's going to make its money when you're
uh when you're using AWS to build your
own products and as an ancient Amazon
proverb goes no matter what model you
use we will get paid and in fact that
that proverb comes from an interview
that I did with Matt Wood who's the VP
of Technology at Amazon web services let
me just read it to you he says we get
paid by providing compute capacity to
actually do the model training and for
providing the access to the large
amounts of storage that are needed to
store the data and then get that data
into the machine learning models do you
hear this everywhere along the chain
Amazon is getting paid does that exist
for open Ai No and that's why I think
Amazon is going to be the leader oh and
by the way the research advantage that
others have well Microsoft is starting
to come at par because uh earlier this
year here actually just a few weeks ago
they invested $1.25 billion in anthropic
which is that uh open AI competitor
started by openai
expats and they're GNA it's going to
give Amazon this hook into Cutting Edge
research that it wouldn't have had
previously finally this is another
screenshot from open ai's demo day this
is Sam Alman open AI CEO standing in
front of six different phone screens
representing six different voices that
you can interact with to talk to Chad
GPT what this is showing is that open
aai believes that we're not just going
to interact with AI via text we are
going to interact with them via voice
who does that benefit it benefits Amazon
Amazon has 500 million Alexa connected
devices uh in homes across the world if
this is the way that we're going to
interact with AI models then actually
Amazon already has the hardware in our
homes ready to deploy employ it you see
a s you see a slide like this from Sam
Alman at open aai developer day you
start questioning whether that company
can lead forever and that's why again I
think Amazon is best positioned to lead
this race at least for a moment remember
this is the company that loves
artificial intelligence and loves
robotics so much that Jeff Bezos taped
his freaking Echo onto a Roomba okay
they're not going to lie down and let
others take this uh take this field it's
just not going to happen Clearing House
for AI models anthropic partnership 500
million Alexa devices take it to the
bank Amazon is going to lead
here all right now this is a great
excuse for me to show some of my
favorite nature photos I'm I am
predicting that we're going to move from
broad to narrow use cases of AI now this
first photo here is a photo of me at the
Grand Canyon and the Grand Canyon is a
sight to behold it's wondrous one
problem you have no idea where the hell
to go because it's so open and vast
second also in Utah is a narrow Canyon
narrow canyons are little little less
Grand and they're a little less
breathtaking but you know exactly where
to go when you're walking through a
narrow Canyon and it's similar with AI
Chachi PT just takes you in this broad
area you open up that Chachi PT window
and you look at it and you say oh I know
this is wondrous I know this is cool I
know there are a lot of different
directions to go in but damn I have no
idea where to take it we're going to go
to narrow models we're going to go to an
Era where you're going to start using
purpose-built AI models and that's again
why in open AI developer day you had Sam
Alman standing in front of dozens of
personal gpts that are purpose-built to
make certain tasks easier for you with
generative AI broad to narrow the and
and just think about the advantages
versus the disadvantages broad uh you're
inefficient because you're basically
quering the world's knowledge every time
you talk to this thing it hallucinates
cuz it's just handling a lot of
information and there are unlimited use
cases small Bots they're efficient
they're train they're working on less
information because they know what
you're probably going to do with them
they have specialized training so people
will upload information inside these
Bots and they're much less likely to
hallucinate because they know exactly
where you're going with this and they're
going to rely on that information base
and there's clear use cases you're in
there you know what to do you're not
saying I know this thing is cool but I
wonder where I should go with it we're
already starting to see this in practice
with legal Bots like Harvey which law
firms are using to query legal material
go through Discovery and ultimately make
their lawyers more efficient and then
the other the other uh image that I have
on the screen here is the 28 different
Bots that meta introduced in WhatsApp
and messenger in their most recent roll
out again let's go back to the theme
Mark Zuckerberg wants to kick the crap
out of Sam Alman and open AI he's not
doing it with one bot he's doing it with
many Bots and if you thought the Elon
Musk Zuckerberg cage match was the main
event no that was a sideshow him vers
Sam Alman that's where the real fight is
going to happen and he's betting on
narrow and you can already see the data
start to come out that proves my point
that shows you that something like chat
PT just is not as serious of interest to
people as people thought was going to be
I mean look at this data sessions down
29% three straight months of declining
usage in the summer uh bleeding users
says giz Moto now listen whenever I
share this data people tell me well it's
because students were out of school just
wait till the students come back to
school and it's going to be a different
picture really so you're telling me that
your technology shrinks when school's at
a session and it grows when it's not
that's ridiculous it has to be something
that's broadly applicable and available
and and that's going to be when we move
to these narrow use cases students love
it because they can type in any
coursework it's just not a model for a
product that has long-term success if we
don't reach General uh generative uh
sorry General artificial intelligence if
we create AI That's on par with human
intelligence then this all all beds are
off but until we get there bed on the
narrow anybody here see the movie free
guy all right we got some hands it's a
great freaking movie let me tell you
what happens Ryan Reynolds is a
non-playable character in a video game
okay a non-playable character is also
known by the acronym NPC and what that
is it's the people that kind of walk
around in the game they have no they
have no dialogue they're not there to
really interact with you you can punch
him in the face sometimes and that's
about it and in this movie Ryan Reynolds
the free guy wakes up and he becomes
sentient and he's like wait a second you
know he starts to express the full range
of human emotion and I believe that that
we're not going to quite get there but
we're going to get pretty damn close to
free guy when we build llms into video
game technology and that leads me to
prediction four is that video games are
going to be absolutely incredible with
this stuff and I think when they get
there we're going to move from an era
where we pulverize MPCs to we empathize
with them instead of running them over
with a car we're going to have a
conversation with them they might even
be our friends and when we're working in
these virtual rule these Virtual Worlds
we're just going to get to a point where
a video game is going to feel so much
more like real life and that's going to
make them freaking
amazing this is not something that's
coming out of left field I spoke with
the founding product manager of Lambda
which is Google's original chatbot and
he said to me that they were exploring
some use cases around how a technology
like that could be used for powering
NPCs within games the smartest Minds
built the original Technology based off
of large language models inside Google
inside Google they never shipped it but
they did come up with this use case and
you better believe that these companies
and video game developers right now are
having conversations about how to make
video games something that even
non-gamers might find fascinating let me
end this prediction section with a quote
from the free guy he says I may not be
real but for a second there I felt
pretty alive um I wanted to put this in
here a because I believe that every
presentation should have as many images
of Ryan Reynolds as possible but B
because I do think that we're going to
get to a place where these Bots or these
NPCs won't exactly wake up but they're
going to feel real to us Okay I lied one
last thing screw the critics the critics
believe that free gu is only 80% on
Rotten Tomatoes wisdom of the crowds us
the audience we say 94% if you haven't
seen it go see it it's my dad's favorite
movie okay prediction five that we are
about to see the world world's greatest
copyright battle greatest copyright
battle last week at open ai's developer
day Sam Alman said that if you get sued
C to certain customers if you get sued
for copyright infringement we are going
to pick up your legal costs what he's
saying effectively is like please go use
other people's copyrighted material and
we'll we'll pick up the bill if that
gets if that turns out poorly for you we
also have andreon harwitz who said
recently that if you train I'm sorry
training on copyrighted material makes
their Investments worth billions of
dollars more than if they couldn't use
it and they were deploring the copyright
office please let us train on
copyrighted material this is something
that the AI movement needs to train on
but there's another party here and that
is the people producing the copyrighted
material and let me just direct your
attention to a recent article that
showed that the Associated Press did
reach a deal with open aai to allow them
to train on their material by the way
remember the whole broad use case right
if you look at these at these
interactions you're going to want to
know what am I supposed to do with them
news is amazing to solve that problem it
can say hey these stories are breaking
would you like to know more people are
going to chat with them extremely
extremely valuable to these developers
and that's why open AI is starting to
pay some of them sorry extremely yeah
extremely valuable to developers that's
why open AI is starting to pay some
Publishers with the AP first to on them
but they're not going to pay everyone
and what happens when they don't pay
everyone they're going to get sued and
you already start to see that there are
some Rumblings from The New York Times
saying you're training on my stories now
give me my money and let me remind you
of a famous journalism proverb which is
take my work and I'm going to sue you
and I think you're going to start to see
many many lawsuits and the courts are
about to basically determine the future
of this very important new wave of
Technology ology by the way not immune
to me like I said I publish on substack
I was going through my settings I never
knew this existed and recently I Came
Upon This toggle that was op that had
opted me in to letting Google and openai
and other bots of a similar nature train
on my material now as you can see this
is a live shot from my substack
dashboard I'm allowing them to train but
more and more questions are going to
come up about this and people are going
to try to figure out how we get paid for
helping these models uh uh live their
potential by the way I love the
Innovation I want to see these models
succeed but there should be a fair value
transaction andri Horowitz is telling us
that this information they're training
on is worth billions of dollars but you
tell me that we can't get compensation
for that it's not going to fly for me
and I don't think it's flying for many
others all right bottom line AI winter
is oh sorry AI copyright winter is
coming coming and the way this play
plays out might determine whether we
head into another AI winter itself
finally good news on the horizon we're
keeping our jobs people let's hear it
for our jobs yeah who booed jobs don't
Boo the
jobs no but this is great I think the
only way that we're going to see
Consultants tell us that we are
redundant is going to because going to
be because our companies are failing not
because AI has replaced us and is good
enough to do our work why is that I
personally have four reasons first of
all AI makes us better at our jobs if
you're a boss and your worker comes in
and says I'm now 20 30 40% better at my
job who in their right mind says great
you're fired it just doesn't happen and
so we're going to see people get better
at their jobs bosses always want people
to be better at their work and so
they're going to keep them it's actually
a retention policy for workers around
the world as opposed to something
different and on top of that the Bots
can only handle a wide range of tasks
you can use them for instance to get you
information from a document but whose
job is only to get them get information
from a document and hand it to their
boss even research assistants need to
take meetings they need to figure out
what the task is they need to go deep in
the subject matter they need to be
experts on the stuff going on uh
previously so yes they can have some
conversations with these Bots but it's
not replacing them also change
management is hard anyone that's been
involved in change management inside an
organiz ation knows this to be the case
and then finally AI job loss is
something that we're seeing from
companies that are weak anyway they're
going to have to do layoffs anyway and
they go to the market and they say
listen we have to do these job cuts and
we're replacing our employees with their
with AI oftentimes no they're not
they're just trying to get positive
Market momentum because they're going to
be seen as a forward looking company
it's just not the case okay be very very
skeptical when a company says we're
replacing our employees with AI
generally what that means is we are weak
and we're trying to find some excuses
and a positive narrative all right
really important stuff here because
you're seeing it more and more this is a
quote from the uh head of AI at the Mayo
Clinic lab he's a neuro radiologist so
everybody remember when um AI started
making its way into computer vision and
um they said it was going to replace
Radiologists because it can read scans
better than they can well that's not
exactly happening uh Mayo Clinic has 11
AI models functioning in the clinic and
they're still looking to hire
Radiologists so again let's just be very
skeptical of this narrative and you can
hold me to it I was at uh uh I wrote
about this in the Boston Globe in slate
on big technology on my show we do
account accountability when we get
things wrong and we talk about it and so
if you end up listening and you see that
I'm wrong here write in but I I'll hold
myself accountable and I hope hope you
do too all right one bonus prediction
the AI is not going to kill us okay not
happening all right six b six B
predictions on the future of AI let me
recap them for you open AI loses the
throne Amazon will lead the AI arms race
we're going to move from broad to narrow
use cases AI is going to make video
games absolutely incredible the world's
biggest copyright battle is on its way
and God bless we're keeping our
jobs thank you very much everyone you've
been an amazing audience take a photo
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day