OpenAI Teases GPT-5, Musk Raises $6B for xAI, Loneliness in Remote Work Era

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2024-06-01

YouTube video id: Uw9LLBWhB7A

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw9LLBWhB7A

openi says it started training its next
Frontier Model sadella call Sam Altman
to talk about his Apple partnership
Apple's big announcements meanwhile look
clearer ahead of WWDC Elon Musk raised 6
billion for xai and the remote work era
is spiking loneliness all that and more
is coming up right after this welcome to
Big technology podcast uh Friday edition
where we break down the news and our
tral cool-headed and Nuance for format
we have Brian McCulla with here with us
here in the house talking about
everything from gp5 potentially coming
in uh to the musk fundraising and of
course what's going on with apple and
open Ai and how Microsoft feels all
about it Brian is the host of the tech
mem ride home show it's a great show you
can find it in your podcast app of
choice he's also partner at the ride
home fund Brian welcome back to the show
great to see you uh great to see you
again I think you know this is what the
fourth or fifth time we've done this um
but since Alex has been telling you
about tech meme recently I believe uh
you know FYI if you don't want to go to
techmeme every 30 seconds like most of
us do to read the articles you can just
have me regurgitate the Articles to you
every day for about 15 minutes a really
quick podcast it goes well as we always
say with big technology that's right
definitely go to techm right home to
check out your uh Daily Tech news come
to us for you know on the weekends or
Wednesdays um as we dive deep into the
headlines and let's just do that right
now so openai had a very interesting
release this week Brian uh and by
release I mean press release really they
talked about how they were starting to
invest in safety in a different way and
made a big safety announcement they have
a new Safety and Security Council second
paragraph say openai has recently begun
training its next Frontier Model and we
anticipate the resulting system to bring
us to the next level of capabilities on
our path to AGI I mean talk about
bearing the lead there like why wouldn't
I just come out with a press release and
say hey we're starting GPT 5 but I think
maybe they've just taken such a hit
public publicity wise um with the
leaving of elas ATK and the leaving of
all the like many of the folks on the
super alignment team that they wanted to
show that they were committed and sort
of wrap the gp5 news in like a hot dog
bun of safety I don't know what's your
perspective on what happened with this
announcement and what do you think about
the fact that gp5 has started to train
so uh this could be a head fake by them
which we can talk about in a second um
but as you mentioned um I I am uh GP in
in two different um early stage funds
one of which is AI uh focused and one of
the things that's been kind of unique
about the spring so far is that people
in the AI community and investors in AI
have sort of been waiting on tender
hooks for is when is GPT 5 going to come
out when when GPT uh 40 came out
you saw a lot of you know there's tons
of startups that are doing like what if
there's a chatbot for customer service
what if there's a chatbot for you go
through the Wendy's drive-through or
whatever and that
conversational like step forward that
gp4 had um aviated a lot of startups so
in the spring a lot of folks have been
sort of waiting to see if GPT 5 was
going to come out a lot of people
thought it could be out by now I would
say this is arguable but I'd say maybe
the majority thought it was coming this
summer so it's a bit of a surprise that
essentially people were thinking that
based on the Cadence of when the
previous models came out um the by
saying that we've just started training
what they're essentially saying is that
at a minimum gp5 is is eight months out
right can I give you a crazy uh counter
here and maybe maybe this is completely
wrong but do you think that that might
be GPT 6 that they're Trading and
they've got GPT 5 ready to release if
that was the expectation people people
were so waiting for this that when GPT
remember there was that weird thing that
was floating around and people are like
this seems like a bot gpt2 chat or
something like that and then it became
GPT 4 it turned out it was GPT 40 people
were thinking is this are they testing
GPT 5 in the wild
um so you're that's what I said is it
could be a head fake in the sense that
um because the industry is sort of
waiting because open AI as far as most
people feel although anthropic and
others would argue with this is still
the state-ofthe-art and people expect
that whatever their next Flagship model
is going to be is going to Leap Frog the
existing stuff so if if they're head
faking us what they could do is like we
expected by the end of the summer
release GPT 5 um because then everyone's
like oh it's going to be a year out
because the idea is it takes eight
months to train and then you need months
to like test and do the refinement on on
the um the various weights and things
like that so what they're signaling to
the industry is maybe it's a year out
maybe it's a 2025 release as I said so
then you could have open AI competitors
try to rush things and beat them to
Market because why else I mean it's it
is mysterious that you're basically
revealing your timeline right um so yes
they could be head faking in that way
they could be saying well uh GPT 5 is a
or or signaling that it's a it's a year
away and then release it earlier than
people are anticipating or you're right
they've made a Leap Frog and it's a
second generation Beyond but
functionally that doesn't matter because
people in the AI space there is concern
out there that there is a ceiling to
this technology um that the the
Transformer technology that most of the
current generation of a based on might
have its limits and those limits are
around things like the data to train on
and things like that and so energy uh
accessibility to compute and things like
that so for so many reasons people are
watching open AI to see where the
state-of-the-art is like I've said on on
my show like if if if GPT 40 had been
GPT 5 The Narrative right now would be
oh we've reached our ceiling there's a
there's a gating function to what this
technology can do right now and that
would have
reverberations towards everything
towards the Investments that people are
making to from from Microsoft to to VCS
to whatever um is this what you mean
when you dropped in our dock this
sentence that you said uh G the degree
that basically waiting for GPT 5 is
freezing the market because is it
basically because people are like saying
we have these certain capabilities now
we can do things with those capabilities
cool things with those capabilities uh
but we don't know how much further to go
in until we see that step change
Improvement that is gp5 exactly well I
mean that in a very basic level which is
there are a lot of startups out there
that are essentially glorified rappers
around um open Ai apis and so when they
release the new model if all the work
that you've done
for your image creating bot your your
chat bot whatever suddenly looks if if
if gp5 is a 10x or 100x in terms of
capabilities then all the work that
you've been doing around the previous
apis might be OB um but it's also
freezing the market because if open AI
continues to be the gold standard people
are waiting to see will this remember
the step change that we saw from gpt2 to
gpt3 and then especially 3 to four um
and so people are are trying to get a
sense of will that happen again will
when gp5 comes out will it basically be
like take the chess board and throw it
up in the air and start fresh um so it's
it I said it's freezing the market for
investment but also for people thinking
about it strategically because if open
AI is still as most people believe
state-of-the-art Cutting Edge um the
best practitioner of this with the best
tech and the most money behind it um
people are waiting to see what the
leader can do now conversely let's go in
the opposite direction if if this is
right and they're a year out then this
is the window for an anthropic or
somebody else to to do a what ESS
release their version of gp5 or or what
gp5 could be so I while I'm saying that
this is freezing the market it also
could be oper opening up a window of
opportunity for opening eye competitors
yeah there's the all the breadcrumbs
that we get also suggest that whatever
is coming down the road for them their
next Generation model open AI uh they
believe that it's going to be big and
this from the information Altman and his
colleagues also believe that the newest
large language model open a is training
will far surpass far surpass the best
llm it sells today putting to rest the
growing questions in in the industry
about whether the technology is hit a
plateau what do you think when you hear
that
um uh I mean I I hear that as um good uh
a good competitive stance keeping
everybody sort of um on their toes sort
of uneven because on the one hand you
know Sam Alman will say um to to Startup
Founders like don't do anything that is
just a rapper because um our technology
is going to get so good that it's it's
going to blow anything like that away
now that is contradicted by the fact
that a part of their business is selling
their apis to people to do things with
so if if you are a Founder in the AI
space if you're an investor in the AI
space imagine the fact that on one hand
you know open Ai and Sam Alman have said
from day one we're going after AGI we're
going after a computer that can meet and
exceed anything a human mind can do in
that case we don't know what the
business case is because like does that
mean that the computer takes over the
world and tells us how to run it better
or do you sell that for people that you
see what I'm saying so they are right
now sort of straddling the fence of hey
we're allowing you to do all these
things let a a thousand flowers bloom
create your startup around our apis and
things like that but also meanwhile um
stick with us because when the next
version comes out it's going to blow
everyone else out of the water and uh
maybe all these startups are are
meaningless so bottom line your
prediction on gp5 you think most likely
sometime in 2025 mid
2025 I'll give you 5050 that it would
happen before the end of this year and
then 5050 that it would happen in uh q1
of next
year I mean come on Brian you can't go
5050 that it's going to happen this year
or next I'm giving you those are solid
the tangible those are tangible
numbers there's it may it's like
basically your your probability on that
on that line is that okay I'll go I'll
go 40
43 uh by the end of this year and then
yeah that will accept Okay okay so most
likely sometime next year I think it'll
be next year yeah yeah in the meantime
there are already some near-term
concerns that open a is going to have to
deal with and maybe near-term
breakthroughs and big Partnerships that
we're going to see before we ever get to
gp5 and the first one of those is going
to be uh this big partnership with apple
that we're bound to see in WWDC which is
in I guess uh a week from Monday so this
is really coming close and we're going
to talk a little bit about what what we
know already about WWDC but first the
very fact that open AI had took 13
billion from Microsoft and is now doing
this partnership with Apple is already I
don't know if you want to say raising
alarm Bells within Redmond and the
Microsoft headquarters but it certainly
seems like Microsoft is curious about it
and I think they'd be within their
rights to sort of want to know what's
going on and there's this information
story uh it says um you know the
headline is open AI CEO cements control
as he secures uh the Apple deal which is
about Sam Alman but there's a little
detail buried kind of deep in the story
that actually seems to be the most
interesting news nugget of it all uh
here it is the Apple deal could
complicate Altman's relationship with
open ai's most important business
partner Microsoft Alman recently met
with Microsoft CEO Satan Adella to
discuss Microsoft's concerns about how
the Apple deal might affect the cloud
software Giants own product Ambitions
and the two Executives discussed the
servers Microsoft would need to handle
Apple's use of open AI Services I mean
that is a very extraordinary type of
meeting where SATA is I mean obviously
Microsoft and Apple are U they're much
more sympatico than they've been in the
past where like the jobs in the gates
era where they were at each other's
necks but it sounds fascinating that sat
is like how many of my servers do I need
to give to make apple a more valuable
company and aren't you supposed to be
our more align product team so that's
think about this Brian that's sort of
the original sin of this partnership is
that the is that the right analogy like
the original the original sin of like
open AI itself the weirdness of
Microsoft investing in open AI was that
it was sort of a nonprofit that is has
moved to for-profit and as as we're
hearing whispers it's going to move 100%
to for-profit but from Microsoft's
perspective the original sin here is
that they can't acquire open AI right so
in if if in a different regulatory
environment or if this were 10 years ago
um look at what Microsoft has done um
they have essentially gone all in on AI
they are putting AI into all of their
most important products from Excel to
teams to Windows 11 itself to you name
it and so they're basically making it a
core component of all of their most
important product most important product
lines we there was a a dayong Microsoft
outage uh recently where you couldn't
use things like teams and and the AI
within word the the the co-pilots and
things like that because the Microsoft
apis are down so think of how core these
things have suddenly become to most of
their most important product
lines Microsoft naturally would want to
own that technology if it is going to
become I Microsoft is the most valuable
company in the world now because
essentially investors have given them
credit for being you know AI first and
and maybe the most ahead of the big
seven or whatever in terms of of AI and
also because they're the most natural
company to apply this technology in sort
of this business sense what I'm saying
though is like you know meta's trying to
apply uh AI inside their family of apps
right but they own their own uh AI
technology um Google obviously is is
trying to integrate into everything but
they also own their own stuff so the
original sin is that Microsoft if this
is core technology to them they want to
own it now we've seen them signaling
that they have not put all of their eggs
in the Sam Alton basket right um they've
invested in other open AI
competitors they're you know in their
earnings reports they're talking about
um their capex spending uh going up
because you know we're theorizing that
they're training their own they're even
they training they are training their
own like new have them training huge
models right so my question to you is
now and then by the way before we even
get to that don't forget the the weird
chaos around open AI where they got
chaos Brian they got blindsided by Sam
alman's aler I don't imagine that
they're thrilled with some of the
weirdness like around Scarlett Johansson
and like the you know you you went down
the list of of weird things that
happened over the last two weeks so it's
clear that Microsoft is hedging their
bets right but what I'm also saying
is what what would you okay you give me
the odds on how tight this relationship
between Microsoft and open AI would be
five years from now I don't think
Microsoft would ever you know devest
themselves of their investment but um
five years from now will they not need
open Ai and Sam's not he wasn't born
yesterday he knows that in a way the the
partnership between Microsoft and open
AI is sort of like what Apple's doing
right now with open AI which is our own
technolog is not good enough we know we
need to launch AI chatbot something that
is sophisticated enough now and then
three years from now five years from now
when our Tech is good enough we don't
need them right so that's essentially
what Microsoft has done from day one so
what you give me the odds of Microsoft
and open AI five years from now being as
tightly partnered as as they are right
now well Brian I'll have you know I'm
rewatching the wire and uh What uh what
the guy guy's name the detective Lester
tells you to follow the money and not
the drugs and so I'll just follow the
money here and we know that Microsoft
gave open a $13 billion we think that a
lot of that was either you know server
credits or potentially just plowed right
back into Azure uh to train and deploy
models and we know that open a is
reported to be on schedule to make about
$2 billion this year in Revenue okay so
that's the money picture for openai in
comes apple apple says openai we
basically we want to plug you into our
operating system and how much is that
deal going to be worth to open a it
could be worth this is from the
information um it could be worth
billions of dollars to the startup if it
goes well not a billion billions
billions yeah that's their entire
Revenue I mean let's say it's even two
billions that's their entire Revenue
this year and and that's that's right
now what what what Sam and open AI want
is they essentially want to maybe not
replace the Google search deal that that
Apple has had for 20 years uh where
Apple makes2 billion I obviously they
don't want to pay Apple 20 billion the
the opposite they're going to get paid
by Apple to do that exactly so in a way
if they could replace Google by uh being
search open AI is imagining five years
from now they're making five1 billion
dollar a year from Apple because they
are fulfilling all of these functions
that include the sort of autonomous uh
agents the assistant the searching and
summarizing the web and all that all
that stuff exactly so I think that like
it's good for honestly look it's good
for both opening eye and for Microsoft
to diversify here it's good for opening
ey to have multiple partners because
it's more sustainable that way and it's
sort of really able to chart its own
future uh in a way that it wants if it's
not reliant on just one company and
frankly it's good for Microsoft because
it allows it to you know both rely on a
partnership with openi but also if it's
developing and building internally we
know that they have Mustafa Solon there
working on consumer products now right
like it gives Microsoft greater control
control over how this technology
integrates with its products and greater
insulation from whatever uh you know
potential chaos might ensue at a partner
although you would imagine that open AI
is a lot more stable now than it was
previously and one last thing one last
thing here um we also know that the
priorities of open aai and Microsoft
might be different right right open AI I
think at its heart still a research
house right and uh I was on air on CNBC
this week I was talking about how chat
GPT is still uh only at 100 million
users uh that's the number that it hit
two months after launch uh but
ultimately like I don't think that that
is like the live or die for them it's
about the technology whereas Microsoft
was pushing open AI after the Sam mman
this is a report we have in the
financial times that Microsoft was
pushing open aai uh after the Sam mman
blow up to be more focused on Commercial
products so if that's what Microsoft
wants by building these capabilities in
house Microsoft is able to get that and
then also let's say you know openi comes
up with like some massive research
breakthrough and let's say they actually
are training gp6 now and it's just like
freaking human level intelligence like
Microsoft will be able to benefit from
that my perspective on this yeah except
that um I think that open AI is
incentivized right now again these are
two extremely canny operators who this
is not their first rodeo um open AI is
incentivized now because they know they
can see the Strategic angles here um
Microsoft wants to have control over
this core technology they can't buy open
AI so they're going to try to build an
inh house so no one can stop them from
doing it so open AI is incentivized now
to go product you you said well they
they're still more focused on on the
research I don't think that's
necessarily true I think that the the
path for open AI to stay strong and
independent is to producti themselves
which would run contrary to Microsoft
wanting to producti themselves as well
this is extremely reductive but um in a
sense you can think of this as I've
always said that AI is trying to make
the Star Trek computer uh a product
which is you don't have to know anything
it's like the the shift from the command
line to the guey Computing is not having
to know I got to go to this app I got to
go to this website I got to type in
these forms the AI just does it for you
the first person to productize that
whether it be in Excel whether it be
inside of Instagram whether it be uh
inside Google search or your Google Docs
or whatever um that that they imagine
that that is people will pay um you
know tens and maybe hundreds of dollars
a month for that um you know per seat
and in Enterprise uh per person and and
uh consumer so open ey in that if you
look at it through that lens is actually
weak because they have to build their
own brand you know there was there was a
a story uh this week that I think that
they just signed up price waterhous
Coopers or PWC as you're supposed to
call them now uh to the tune of of
thousands and thousands of seats well so
they have to do that from a standing
start like if you take that reductive
lens of who's going to be the first one
to productize um essentially having a
butler that a computer Butler that does
everything for you um they would have to
do that without a platform of their own
and um you know sign up for a a chat gbt
account and pay us per month and that
sort of thing yes but but that's why
these Partnerships are so important to
them and that's why they really do win
with these multiple Partnerships because
they create that for Microsoft and
they're going to create it for Apple at
WC I'm saying for the long term that
doesn't work for anyone long term five
years out apple does not want to be
using open AI they want to be using
their own stuff I'm suggesting that's
also true for Microsoft and I'm
suggesting that's true for open AI they
know that and so they need to to plow
their own sort of path here um to it to
to be competitive five years out when
when Microsoft hired suan and that's why
there might be a research house because
they ultimately will have to keep
advancing the status quo in order to be
able to maintain these deals they just
had stuff on that was easy to replicate
on part with everybody then they would
be out already when when Microsoft Aqua
hired even though technically they
didn't to get around again the
competitive landscape or the the
regulatory landscape um hiring suan was
the biggest signal that uh hey by the
way Sam we don't need you
forever but Suliman is just consumer
products and he was also building a
failing company so true but um they they
hired somebody that can be the vision
like I I I I'm not one of these people
that um denigrates or or uh says that
Sam mman hasn't achieved a lot of stuff
but he's not a he's not a product guy
necessarily he's not an engineer he's
also not a
researcher I don't know Brian I mean he
whatever you want to call him he's the
guy who's who whose company who was
running underneath him took this
technology that you know was built
within Google and everybody had access
to and actually built the
product not only that and has the state
of the ey State ofthe art research
underneath him for sure that nobody and
he has as we saw with the attempted coup
the backing of some of the most talented
people in the AI field so I again I'm
not denigrating Sam Elman at all he's
clearly the canest operator in the space
as it exists right now and he brought
this space to the Forefront so he
deserves all the credit for that in the
world yeah but okay so let's talk about
a little bit about why openingi is going
to be and sort of why they're going to
win in the near term for sure um even
though I agree with you there's
vulnerability I've been talking about on
the show for a while um but I also think
this apple partnership might really
change the game for open AI in a way
that uh I'm just starting to to
appreciate because it seems like apple
is going all the way in and there was
always a question of like what wasle
Apple going to do so previous reports
this is from uh Mark German in uh
Bloomberg so previous reports had Apple
preparing a bunch of different features
like voice memo transcriptions and
summaries and Recaps of websites and
notifications and automated message
replies and advanced photo editing and
AI generated emojis okay all that to me
total snooze but the report this week
really brings into Focus about how big
apple is going to go in on this right so
um this is this is from German again
Apple plans AI based Siri overhaul to
control individual app functions now
this the second part of that headline is
really important it's not about
information retrieval like your
traditional chat GPT it's actually
giving control of the app over to Siri
and here over yeah well basically
allowing you to control the app with
Siri not letting the AI Control it for
you but here's the story from German
Apple Inc is planning to overhaul Siri
in move that will let users control
individual app functions with their
voice the new new system will allow Siri
to take command of all the features
within apps for the first time that CH
okay it required a revamp of Siri's
underlying software we know this okay
here is a example at the start Siri will
handle one command at a time but Apple
has plans to allow users to chain
commands together for example and I'm
100% certain this is going to be the
hero demo at WWDC and by my certainty is
probably you know just me being
overconfident reading this but it sounds
likely okay you he says for example you
can ask Siri to summarize a recorded
meeting and then text it to a colleague
in run request or an iPhone could
theoretically be asked to crop a picture
and then email it to a friend right and
you don't you don't have to say and then
open it in in photos and then crop you
just you just like like peard says in
Star Trek it's like you know computer
enhance and it just does it right it is
also what the rabbit R1 suggested was it
was trying to do although whether it was
successful doing that is obviously
hugely debatable but imagine that you
want to book a flight and you don't have
like once you give it access to your
Expedia account and your your Gmail and
your whatever you just say book a flight
for next Wednesday to Seattle and that's
it it just does it and maybe you give it
the price parameters but you don't have
to tell it open this app do that the the
access to the system level is what's key
here and that's what people and some of
the papers that that have been at by
Apple research suggest that they're
going in this direction the idea is that
at the OS level um the AI will have the
ability to um to do stuff for you to to
execute
commands multi-level commands with
things that would take different steps
that's why I say it's similar to the um
moving from the command line to the the
guey where as opposed to having to know
how to in a command way tell the
computer what to do you clicked icons
and you did drop down menus if you need
to uh plan a vacation now or do a
doctor's appointment you know that you
as the human have to go into this
account go to that website use this app
um check this account you know all that
all that stuff is obviated by if the AI
has the the the the ability to execute
at the OS level on your behalf then it
is peard saying computer enhance without
having to say go to Adobe and then
enhance 30% you just say enhance more
enhance more that's what we're that's
what apple is
suggesting okay so let's just uh as we
end this segment just kind of do like a
little scorecard here so we think open
AI is going to come out of this this
next year
stronger um I I'm gonna I'm gonna put a
I'm gonna put a SP stronger 50% weaker
Brian I still think that there is
there's the there's a possibility that
people are underwhelmed by WWDC what
happens then if if the demos are not wow
G whiz enough um not only is Apple's
stock price in trouble but um
like open AI could should still come out
of this looking good but um more than I
was saying to someone just this past
weekend more than any other wwc that I
can remember for a decade I don't know
where this is going to land so yeah
there's your 50-50 again I don't know
what the odds are that they're going to
have an iPhone moment where it's like I
didn't even know that was possible
versus oh a slightly smarter Siri
H yeah I think that I do think that WWDC
is going to be very impressive mostly
because it has to be for both of these
companies they to yeah to be able to
continue to push forward I mean open ey
will be fine if it releases GPT 5 and
it's like a Godlike AI or you know not
even that but just like another step
forward in what we were seeing and I
mean but Apple does need this I think
they really do and I'm not rooting for
this because I love to be wowed I live
for iPhone moments where the the the
possibilities and the vistas are pushed
forward um but if people come back if
two weeks from now people are
underwhelmed and that's what you're
talking about on the show remember I
said that there's a real possibility
here that they don't hit the mark so
well I mean they were able to make the
Vision Pro look cool in an era where
like mix uh that has missed the mark yes
I mean it looked cool and people talked
about it for 3 weeks exactly so I mean
this is these are two companies that
really can do excellent marketing you
know and and they often have products to
back it up but not not all them hit in
the long run okay I want to talk about
Microsoft real quick you know in terms
of like wrapping up where things are
going um what's your sense as to like
the uptake on the co-pilots because
that's some of the feedback I've been
getting is that like okay Microsoft
because you mentioned okay Microsoft's
the most valuable company in the world
yes buy buy a good deal actually
actually um the co it's it's predicated
on their their ability to be first in Ai
and a lot of their ability to productize
this stuff and put it into office and
Excel and all all these things are you
getting a sense that people are actually
using these co-pilots like is that is
this um sort of enthusiasm for Microsoft
sustainable in terms of like being able
to be traced back to actual
usage uh for Microsoft specifically I I
can't speak to but I I'll use I'll I'll
broaden it out to tell you what I you
know um in the end the promise of AI and
AGI is that the computers are smarter
than us so they make smarter decisions
and we leave the decision- making to
them where the state-of-the-art is right
now is essentially getting rid of the
busy work of the yeah you know instead
of taking 90 minutes to create a a a
slideshow presentation just do it in
five and you know tweak it um I'm seeing
that uptake in a lot of places where
there's busy work to be done uh law uh
the the uptake that I have seen
anecdotally just from companies that I'm
aware of startups and and things like
that um as an example um going through
you know Case Files depositions things
like that things that you hire uh people
to spend hours weeks months years to do
like that sort of stuff so
I would extrapolate onto that that first
of all I hear all the time from
developers that yeah I'll never develop
without a co-pilot again it is creeping
into things like law like Health Care
like education if you're a teacher and
you can use it to do lesson planning do
IEPs and things like that and you've got
you know troves of paperwork and things
like so I I'm answering your question by
saying I bet Microsoft is seeing uptake
in it we know this because they continue
to Double Down on every product they're
putting into I'm saying anecdotally I
believe it too because anything that is
rote mind-numbing work um can be
replaced or or not replaced with a a
co-pilot but um made less Terrible by a
co-pilot so um yes I think that
Microsoft is perfectly positioned for
that okay before we go to break we
should talk a little bit about the fact
that Helen toner um Natasha colie uh
just who were the two open AI board
members who sort of sparked the firing
of Sam Alman uh they actually said why
they fired him this week and again they
basically said little so I didn't want
to dedicate too much time here because
it's been like the same sort of like he
was not consistently candid like come on
like actually like this it sort of seems
like it was just a power struggle the
more they talk um but this is just from
the Ft that toner uh it's summarizing
what she said on the Ted AI show uh she
said that he Mis that Sam misled the
board on multiple occasions about its
safety process for years she says Sam
had made it really difficult for the
board to actually do its job by
withholding information misrepresenting
things that were happening at the
company and in some cases outright lying
to the board I mean one example that she
gave was that the board didn't know chat
PT was coming until they found out about
it on Twitter how do you read this is
this uh more concerning than I'm
starting to think it is or
yeah I think so but this comes back to
my disagreement with you that they are
still uh research-based I think that um
the fundamental disagreement within open
AI is there were a ton of people when it
was founded in you know uh 2015 2016 I
can't remember what year it was exactly
um they they basically got the best and
the brightest of the entire academic
space right and they essentially said
and the whole premise was we're going to
do this independently because we this is
too important for any big Tech Behemoth
to own for any one company to own so you
have I don't know what the percentage
would be of the company at one point
maybe not now because a lot of those
people have left as we know who believed
in that as an academic and research
Mission the Helen toners of the world
probably can't give us like more
tangible examples of
when uh specifically Sam Alman was
talking out of both sides of his mouth
to people that that seems to be what
they're suggesting um for various uh you
know legal reasons that they probably
can't give you tangible examples my read
is the fundamental problem here is that
a certain percentage of the company
bought into it being a research company
and not a product company and that
either Sam falls on the it's going to
become a product company side or he's
trying to play Both Sides as long as he
can because it it would help open AI to
go down parallel tracks as long as it
can before it has to make a decision um
and and so that suggests what
essentially if you read between the
lines the board has always said is
you're telling me one thing and then I
heard you told somebody else the exact
opposite right all right my point here
is that it has no choice but to be both
research and product but and and I guess
for us it's like what leads you're
saying product leads I'm saying research
leads and then there are that want to
get off that train if it's not the train
that they wanted to be on y we also got
an email from open AI last week uh
talking
about their um alignment work so they
actually I don't think they have a super
alignment team but they the super
alignment team is dead but they spinning
up a new one or something like that John
Schulman who's a co-founder is taking on
an expanded profile portfolio as the
head of alignment sence and they say
it's a priority for open Ai and the
company expects uh this investment to
increase over time
so that's what they told we'll see we'll
see y okay oh sorry before we go to
break one more thing which just is just
an amazing detail with this uh Apple
situation uh this is from the
information report uh in moving Apple
Alman had to overcome Skeptics within
the iPhone maker some apple Executives
have long had an aversion to chatbots
especially it's head of machine learning
John gandra who by the way came over
from Google okay in early 2023 after
chat gbt exploded in popularity he told
staff in an internal All Hands meeting
and this is after iume presumably he's
try chat chat PT said the last thing
people needed was another
chatbot I mean come on well that maybe
explains why um Siri has been this stuck
in in the mud For The Better Private
decade I mean what was going on there
all right there's somebody who thinks
the world does need one more chatbot and
that's Elon Musk we'll talk about his6
billion doll fundrais and what he plans
to do with xai on the other side of this
break again we're here with Brian
McCulla he's the host of the tech M ride
home podcast which you can listen to
every weekday uh where it give where
Brian will give you a great recap of
what's going on in the world of tech
recommended one of our favorite shows
and also before we go to break uh this
is going to be another one of our uh
episodes where we're collaborating with
techm you'll be able to see it on the
homepage of techm and I wanted to thank
techm for showcasing the podcast uh on
its homepage it's my go-to site for
finding out what's happening in the tech
world as it's happening found a lot of
stories for this week's show on Tech mem
and then went in and read and I think
you're going to find Great Value from it
too so that's techmeme.com all right
Elon musk's billion $6 billion doll
fundraising coming up right after the
break and we're back here on big
technology podcast with Brian McCulla
he's the host of the tech mem Rome
podcast and the partner of the tech meme
of the Rome fund and another fund that's
AI focused what's the name of that fund
Brian the right home AI fund and
specifically I I need to specify the
funds are not related to Tech meme the
ride home fund is a a separate brand
related to it's a Brian McCulla
production yes are you gonna invest or
let's say this so Elon you know what I'm
gonna ask already Elon invested six
billion H sorry raised six billion uh
from AOA and dreon Horwitz and others um
okay would you have invested in that
musk
xai I have some real inside baseball for
you which I have mentioned this on my
show um I was offered that daily so you
you often when you're an investor you
people learn you're an investor and you
get offered things often um secondaries
from a company that's raising its B
round or at C round and um so somebody
got a hold of an early employee that's
trying to unload a million shares and
what they do is they spin up a special
purpose vehicle um and they offer it to
people that have funds like me and they
say do you want um X number of shares of
this company that's gonna do a c round
or whatever um very rarely has I mean
it's not like this is the late stage
round of xai but um I was offered this
by a lot of people I've worked with in
the past and people that I had never
heard of this was all over the place and
I'm not casting aspersions here I don't
necessarily know what that means but
Alex I could have gotten you an
allocation in this if you wanted like
this was shopped around a lot um at the
at the ride home funds we passed on it
because we're an early stage fund and so
you know we investing above a 10 billion
valuation is not necessarily the waters
that we fish in just for the how the
math works out on our thing let's say
you weren't would you have put the money
in I mean did it look like a good and
investable opportunity for you um I
think I still would have passed uh why
because I think that the the the the
value proposition here is Elon Musk and
um then that that he has Twitter you
know everybody is concerned about where
am I going to get high quality data the
this week Vox and and the Atlantic
signed deals I think the D Jones signed
a big and these are Big deals and and
maybe we'll talk about that again in a
second um but why do they go to the
Atlantic because the Atlantic has been
published since like 1843 or something
like that right so you have high high
quality stuff going back
forever is Twitter high quality now open
AI has paid um Reddit is Reddit High qu
quity I don't know what I'm saying is is
if the value proposition is Elon Musk
that's interesting to me except for the
fact that he seems to be distracted by
so many things I mean the guy did also
co-found open AI did yes uh so also that
makes me a little nervous is this a
Revenge job or whatever but I would have
passed on it because I don't know that
just training it on Twitter is enough
and then um I would make the argument
that um people are behind
they are starting behind now they have
raised more money than crosis to
obviously catch up they're going to buy
as much as Nvidia will give them in
terms of the compute that they need to
do this um but I just would have passed
for that reason now forget about me um
what do you think that the larger move
here is because obviously you know
andreon and Saudi Arabia and like big
blue chip names clearly believe in this
as a play do you think that if Microsoft
is going to do it open AI is here
Google's doing it meta is doing it
anthropic this one that one is there
room for another one like I've I've I've
discussed before is there a
commoditization in the sense that there
were 20 different search engines before
Google came in and um killed them all
yeah I mean why not right like if
there's room for two there's room for
you know seven I guess maybe not but
maybe not but you're right I I look I
think that that here's my my perspective
on it so first of all we do have some
information about how they're going to
play it so first of all they're going to
spend a lot of this money on compute and
musk has said he's and this from the
information he wants to build a
gigafactory of compute and that xai is
going to need uh 100,000 specialized
semiconductors to train and run the next
version of AI grock um he is saying that
uh let's see okay he he in May in a May
presentation to investors musk said he
wants to get the supercomputer running
by the fall of 2025 and will hold
himself personally responsible for
delivering it on time when con completed
the connected groups of chips nvidia's
h100 units will be at least four times
the size of the biggest GPU clusters
that exist today so I think the question
is like if Improvement is going to come
from brute forcing these models with
more compute and more data Elon musos
can get that compute he can get the data
right from Twitter or whever he he
figures it out and common common craw
whatever it might be um so so it seems
like he's he might he will probably be
able to catch up if his computer is
going to be 4X the size then the
question comes down
to will will you end up with technique
that helps you get better Beyond size
and everybody's going to make a bet on
technique and I think that like Venture
capitalists you know they can put money
in and lose um and that's okay right but
they they bet on the chance that this
can win and is there a chance that they
can have like the right technique that
helps push this forward I think it's
it's at least a probab a possibility I
don't know if it's likely but it's
possible and also like the one wild card
is and I know that it's probably not
going to happen but Elon Musk was able
to recruit ilas ATK to open AI once can
he recruit him again can he recruit
somebody with his level of talent to
come do it and become like the Chief
scientist at xai uh I think it's I think
it's possible and if that happens all
bets are off I um I had uh Nat fredman
um the uh AI investing extraordinaire um
there's nobody that is a more prominent
personal investor in AI right now than
net Freeman um ex CEO of uh GitHub um
and he very strongly believes because we
asked him like can the biggest model
will the biggest model always win which
is a little there's fudging around the
edges but essentially the question is
the most compute the most data will that
always win and he's he was like so far I
haven't seen anything that suggests
otherwise the more compute you throw at
it the more high quality data you throw
at it the better it can be so yes there
is a there is a philosophical debate
right now versus what you call Technique
what we call Terre which is like yeah
but do you just want uh GPT 6 to be
reading x-ray scans or do you want a
specialized model that is trained on
medical stuff and x-ray scans because
maybe that would be better possibly Elon
agrees with Nat and is like look just go
big because until we see proof otherwise
big is continuing to win here um it
would be interesting you know speaking
uh of the compu like you know um um Sam
Alman you know the the the story was he
wants to raise eight trillion dollars or
whatever it was to create seven trillion
man yeah on well listen I I dream bigger
than even uh I know no he joked why not
eight I think right right so um like
let's say that um the pitch that I got
for um xai was that which maybe it is um
then that's more interesting to me
because if they're right and then
building these super clusters is what's
going to matter um then that's more
interesting
but I I would have passed because I I
don't know where it's going to go other
people smarter than me um are fine with
listen it's Elon so we don't we're we're
in um and uh we'll see yeah well Larry
Ellison is certainly happy because he's
going to be uh yeah he's going to be
making some money licensing his Oracle
servers out uh to make this happen
we got an interesting comment actually
here so General foundational models will
be commoditized and the value will be
captured in vertical specific models
trained on private data and M uh uh M
Mikel or Michael whatever um that is the
debate because on on the one hand that
is part of the thesis that I'm investing
in which is um verticals and what I'm
calling terroir in in the wine sense
where what you train it on and how you
do the the knobs and levers of of the of
the weights and things like that will
make things better but again like Nat
fredman 100% believes that that's not
true um and that the the bigger uh
beefier model has until proven otherwise
continues to beat even the most
specialized models and maybe he's making
a bet on both with this Giga um what did
he call it a giga computer gigas anyway
um what did he call it gig complex Giga
Factory of compute it's actually
excellent branting um he's he's nothing
if not consistent he held on to the
x.com domain name for 25 years before he
could finally everything is gig yes yeah
yeah all right before we leave I want to
talk quickly about this Al so first of
all I should tease we talked a little
bit about these deals that Vox and the
Atlantic have made with open Ai and
whether the news industry can survive Ai
and whether these are advised or not big
story this week obviously like in a in
the media sense um on Wednesday Ben
Smith and NAA razza who I just started
this new podcast uh called mixed signals
they're coming on with Joe maresi who's
a venture capitalist and we're going to
talk all about whether these deals are
advisable or not and it's going to be
fun because Ben and I were both at
BuzzFeed and obviously BuzzFeed made
some deals with Facebook and Twitter and
thinking it would be good to you know
distribute the content and that didn't
work out exactly as planned so that's
coming Wednesday uh on the podcast but
let's before we end talk just briefly
about this loneliness article because it
was very interesting so the Wall Street
Journal had this story talking about how
in the age of remote work American
workers really workers around the world
I think are getting uh way more lonely
and they had some uh wild stats so they
said I could I couldn't believe this
Brian more than 40% of fully remote
workers pulled in a 2023 202 2023 survey
of working parents said they go days
without leaving the house uh those who
work in office spend nearly a quarter of
their time in Virtual meetings and face
to-face meetings account for only eight%
of their time also this is crazy uh
Americans in particular have tripled the
time spent in meetings since
2020 and uh let's see um 68% said they
knew their co-workers on a personal
level down from
79% 5 years ago are we underappreciate
the impact that this uh era of remote
work is going to have on people in terms
of just making them lonelier than ever
before and you know we're both like I
think we're both remote entrepreneurs
like do you feel this at all in your
life I'm curious what you think about
this um I have never worked in an office
like I have an office but it's a wework
like situation so it's just me I've
never you have youve worked in newsrooms
and things like that i' I've never had
that but my first company um I found it
in 1999 was all the workers were remote
distributed um so
I what I would say about this is it's
not for everyone but that's the point
maybe that this data is revealing is
that if you were someone
who uh went to college to get a certain
degree to do a certain type of work and
um I'm not saying that people pursued
careers to work in offices and cubicles
you know people have have bemon that for
for as long as cubicles and things like
that have been around and and like look
at look at the movie the apartment from
the the is it the late 50s or early 60s
uh like the office has always kind of
seemed a little um dehumanizing to
certain people but uh if you're not
prepared for the fact that like you can
hear my dog flapping his ears over there
you if you work from home and you're not
used to that as being your sort of uh
yeah that's why I'm right by a window
that's why like it's a different skill
set so let's say that you were someone
that worked in an office for 10 years
and especially in Silicon Valley where
you're used to the perks and the the
free lunch and the um the the gym
membership and all that stuff like I can
see that this is you would be like this
is not what I signed up for I think what
I'm saying is um it's it's not for
everyone there are a lot of people that
I know that that prefer it you mean I
don't have to give up two hours of my
day for a commute awesome yeah um but
yeah I can see how people would feel a
little ruged by being like this is not
what I signed up for and what's with all
the meetings Brian can can we end this
podcast getting uh together and finding
a place of agreement that the meetings
are are becoming too much like I said
the meetings uh let's see have have um
have well let's
see I'm gonna I'm gonna tell you how AI
is going to solve this for you because
no hold on I got to I got to read this
this stat um that the meetings make
people less less they okay here it is
paradoxically meetings can make people
feel lonelier and even so if the
meetings are virtual a 2023 survey by
employees uh by employee experience
analy company perceptics found that
people who describe themselves as very
lonely very lonely tend to have heavier
meeting loads than their less lonely
staffers so more than 40% of these
people spend more than half their work
hours in meetings and um right this is
the the stattic that Americans have
tripled the time they spent in meetings
can't this meeting just be an email I
mean you're right maybe AI can solve it
for us by having our like co-pilot show
up well right meetings but it's
absolutely astounding to me how meetings
have multiplied the way that they have
since 2020 the the the hotness of the
moment in the AI space is autonomous
agents the amount of startups that I've
have seen that are like have our AI
agent attend the meeting for you uh um
it can answer questions on your behalf
because it's been trained on your your
email so it knows what your action items
are you can also prompt it ahead of time
and then so you don't have to attend and
um it will give you a readout afterwards
so that it'll be like sort of like uh
getting to inbox zero at the end of the
day all of those eight meetings that you
had today you didn't actually have to
attend we can also get to a place where
you train an avatar on yourself so maybe
people don't know that Brian didn't
attend um so maybe AI is gon to solve
that for us um I think that people hated
meetings and the joke was before covid
times like couldn't this have been an
email um but like scheduling an
in-person meeting was always harder than
being like just click on Zoom so I can
see that um covid times and remote work
has just made maybe cly a little bit has
yeah yeah as well calendar links maybe
they're causing more meetings
taking away the friction of uh doing
meetings is uh only made meetings
multiply like cockroaches I know but I
do like cly anyway I'm with you less
meetings more time in person if you're
working uh remotely and you've been in
the house for multiple days on end uh
please walk out of the house now please
uh take these headphones off and walk
out of the house and go feel the sun on
your face and I was going to argue the
opposite I was going to argue the
opposite this is what keeps podcasters
in business is the fact that um since
we're all by ourselves all the time that
we have these asynchronous friends that
are our podcasting buddies that we feel
like we know even though we've never met
let me try that again Brian if you are
at home and you haven't gone out of the
house in multiple days keep your
headphones in and go through the back
catalog of feel the sun on your face
every one of these podcasts listen to
all the tech m r home podcast go to a
local coffee shop and say hey keep your
ear believe I haven't told told you
about this podcast that I love and then
you will feel happy yeah and that is our
message so Kumbaya less meetings more in
person interaction lots of fun AI news
coming up in the next few weeks we'll be
here to cover it Brian is going to be
there to cover it you can listen to the
show Tech M ride home podcast on your
podcast app of choice you can listen to
our show big technology podcast on your
podcast app of choice indoors Outdoors
it's your decision on Wednesday we'll be
back with Ben Smith Naima razza and Joe
Mari talking about the implications of
all of these AI companies and news
organizations doing deals with each
other uh until then I hope you have a
great couple of days and we'll see you
next time on big technology podcast