Saagar Enjeti and Marshall Kosloff on Midterms, Trump, Economy, and Ukraine

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2022-11-06

YouTube video id: UscJoxbn6vo

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UscJoxbn6vo

welcome to the big technology podcast a
show for cool-headed nuanced
conversation of the tech world and
Beyond and today we focus on the Beyond
and then we move back to the tech world
because Marshall and Sagar are here uh
we've had them a couple times Marshall
kosov and Sagar and Jetty
um from the great realignment podcast
one of my favorite shows also from
breaking points also from the Lincoln
network not the Lincoln project not
going to get that wrong and uh and look
we're gonna
um the the world right now uh is in a
state of transition uh politics and the
economy are linked maybe more than never
uh before or actually more than we've
had in recent years
um and so let's talk a little bit about
what's going on in the US in the globe
ahead of the 2022 midterms and then uh
break down things like Elon and Twitter
uh and the metaverse web3
it'll be fun I promise okay so let's
start let's start with this question uh
first of all welcome to the show guys
good to see you man I'm back I've almost
forgot to welcome you welcome
um
just got excited about going right into
the questions and I just want to start
here I'm a little bit confused and maybe
you guys can help bring me uh you know
up to speed about like the mood in the
US and what's going on uh in U.S
politics because you know there's so
many issues that I've been batting about
um you know inflation culture War real
war and Ukraine abortion stop this deal
in Trump economy etc etc and you know
it's really been tough I think to take
the political temperature of of the
United States right now what is the feel
in the country
um obviously it seems like the
Republicans are are heading to
um you know some wins in these midterms
but you know what yeah what is the feel
in the country what are what are the
animating issues right now
oh that's a great question uh it's
actually not that difficult which is
that number one is economy and as
inflation inflation is Raging it's the
number one issue fundamentals that's
what people care about the most actually
after that is where there is a partisan
split so if you look at the number two
issue basically by voter for GOP voters
number two issue is mostly crime and
immigration if those are intermixed
depending on which part of the country
that you live if you look at Democratic
voters it's actually abortion and then
after that uh kind of January 6 related
democracy quote unquote it so anyway the
point being that it's effectively
economy and then culture but the culture
of who Mick of the mix of those depends
on the type of voter if you were to look
at an independent voter in this election
they're more likely to Trend in their
priorities to where the traditional GOP
voter would be but in general the point
that I would underscore is that no
matter where you are on the Spectrum
this is an election of chaos because the
number of people who are saying the
country is on the wrong track is based
not as high as it was during 2020 but
it's still pretty damn close I think the
number is like 87 or something like that
there's a deep level of dissatisfaction
in general institutionally and that's
being capitalized on by both parties
yeah and what I'd add to that because I
want to get to the mood part of your
questions I'd say the mood of the
country the mood is just kind of down
there's this perception
of things not working well of the
administration not really having a
handle on the issues that are top of
Mind where I think gets to the broader
political problem is that it's not as if
any one specific party has an answer to
this question so I don't think we have
to pretend that Kevin McCarthy's
Republican party is going to solve
inflation or solve the energy issue when
it comes into office and this is also
why when you know Trump was up in the
midterms of 2018 he also had a terrible
midterms so we're basically in this
difficult political Vibe right now where
whoever is basically in the driver's
seat is going to have to reckon with
fact that they are going to be able to
make these like longer let's say more
structural decisions so I think the body
Administration has made a bunch of great
calls lately I think the semiconductor
cracked down on China was a great call I
think the chip sack same topic same
category was a great call there's been
investments in energy climate
infrastructure but none of those
long-term decisions are going to result
in short-term political rewards so
that's just the real difficult situation
the Biden admission Administration finds
itself in and I have just no perception
of them having a way around that right
and last time we spoke soccer you
mentioned that you know things that
mattered to you were vaccine in your
arms stimi in your pocket right that was
what was going to make you happy vaccine
stuff worked out pretty well stimi you
know you know all the stimulus
contributed to inflation along with the
FED along with the supply chain issues
that we've been seeing so when we think
about because if this is an election
that's going to be run uh based off of
inflation and the economy how do we read
it politically because it's not like you
you know one party came in and said
everything's going to cost more and the
supply chain is going to blow up it's
actually something that's taken you know
we're in a 12-year bull market so this
spans multiple presidencies
um and you know it's kind of a difficult
issue to read politically the FED is
involved so how does how do voters look
at this issue when it comes to relief
and how are they going to actually act
based off of their conclusions I don't
think voters really look I think voters
know uh as little as all of us do
including the policy makers so I don't
think anybody's really looking for a
quote-unquote solution I would dispute
for based on from what I've seen the
stimulus was the major cause of
inflation but I think that's probably
another conversation I will accept the
it's a multi-faceted question and the
result of which I know politically is
good for the GOP can we just put it
there like yeah in terms of the in terms
of the actual explanation look I mean
personally I think what they're probably
going to do is and this is actually gets
to the cynical nature of politics which
is that they could crash the economy by
you know doing the debt ceiling uh not
funding the government doing everything
they possibly could and that aggregate
chaos would still result to their
benefit because Joe Biden and the
president almost always gets the blame
uh there were a lot of you know it's
interesting to do a replay of 2012 and
some of the Tea Party shutdowns during
the Obama Administration there was
confidence by Obama and others that the
voters would blame the shutdown on the
on the Republicans and in the near term
they weren't necessarily wrong but the
amount of chaos that that resulted in
still led to a lack of institutional
trust and and uh just a general Vibe of
things not being correct that it
probably did help in some way contribute
to depressing of approval of President
Obama so I'm just generally of the
opinion that the more chaos there is as
long as you are at the top which is Joe
Biden and the party in power it's just
going to be bad for you regardless of
whether you're quote in the right or not
because that's just not how politics
works okay the it's going to play in
well to some questions I have towards
the end of this segment about 2024 but
let's keep focused on the midterms for
now yeah go ahead Marshall yeah well and
just to not get too far to 2024 I do
think what's interesting is now we've
seen a very straightforward Playbook
with the last three Democratic
presidencies Bill Clinton comes in 1992.
huge historic midterm losses obviously
Obama 2010 you're going to have
huge historic where you had huge
historic midterm losses and look what
the Democrats are gonna most likely have
another set of huge historic midterm
losses but in both of the previous two
cases Republicans were not able to
translate the quote-unquote chaos that
helped them on the Congressional ballot
into an actual presidential win so what
we should really be looking at here is
the the real gap between who folks are
going to support for Congress and who
actually is going to be top of the
ticket so that's a story that someone
should focus on there I want to go back
to one quick thing you said Alex which
is a real kind of course correction
moment that folks if you listen back to
our last conversation we're really
prepared for on any level which is that
how the inflation issue just completely
wrecked the quote unquote like narrative
or the overall strategy or the frame the
administration wanted to have so stimis
and vaccines the by Administration
obviously is gonna you know have to play
this carefully they couldn't just say oh
like no worries covets over everyone be
chill because if they did that and there
was a variant that was particularly bad
that would hurt them very badly with
their base So the plan was let's promote
vaccines let's basically try to subtly
move on from the crisis and then we
could then focus on our big economic
wins we could focus on build back better
all those different policies
that plan was working until once again
inflation hits and just leaves them
without a big broad narrative like
soccer you and I've done a lot of
episodes on how a huge part of the
democratic narrative going into the 2021
year was Biden is the next Joe Biden
reloading the economy we're making these
fundamental changes and all of those big
changes and narratives run into
inflation without the ability to
counteract it or tell like a useful
story though so that's something that
really I think when people write back
the history of these two years is going
to be a huge part of it yeah it's pretty
interesting because last time we were
talking you know we were coming off what
was I mean Trump was judged by a lot of
things but it was largely politics
seemed motivated by culture War we were
you know coming off this long bull
market so it became soccer I think you
mentioned you called it a a
you called it a cultural and
affectational backlash and I said okay
maybe Joe Biden is you know doesn't
provoke those you know same type of uh
emotions like Obama or Trump did that
might have turned out to be wrong and we
might end up speaking about economics in
terms of like what leads politics and
not culture War well we are speaking
about economics just sort of played out
the way that in a different way so what
do you what do you guys think about that
and how important is culture War still
in our politics I would dispute that we
are talking about economics I think it's
still very much couched in the culture I
mean I actually think Biden's great
failure is the fact that he is unable to
translate any real message into
inflation which is actually if you look
at the GOP messaging on on inflation it
is core to the message since like the
1980s and essentially is a script I mean
I think Biden's great failure was just
not getting his hands around inflation
in the supply chain crisis from day one
of a feeling of deep apathy set in
across the country which effectively in
a vacuum whoever is going to give you a
message and if you're the only one that
one is going to win I think he had a
great chance at combating this he would
have had to ditch many of the quote
build back better and actually you know
focus on the issues at hand which were
gas which were Supply which were uh many
of the contributing causes to inflation
but he didn't really do any of that and
I remained mystified as to why it took
okay let's take the Strategic petroleum
reserve for example there was a case to
be doing many of the spr Innovation and
interventions that he's been doing today
over a year and a half ago none of that
was done I mean I remember that he
visited the port of LA only one time and
that was months into the backlog in 2021
there was no attempt to use the powers
of government to actually get those
things working you know I mean I
remember whenever that guy Ryan Peterson
the flexport CEO he arguably had more of
an impact by doing a Twitter thread and
renting a boat and running around and
just having the what was it Long Beach
mayor changed the regulations so anyway
I just think that the nearly year-long
obsession with quote build back better
which is just social spending and had
nothing to do with any of the major
problems that the country was facing is
really was his downfall I don't think it
was possible to crawl out of that hole
but it is interesting I think that's his
fault that a motivating factor in this
election doesn't I mean it's it's still
there but but further down is Trump
stopped the steel that type of stuff
it's actually that's right voters though
that's not really for that's not really
for the general population from what I
can tell Again by the way here's another
uh caution nobody knows anything okay
yeah all right I don't feel so bad
anymore yeah well the the thing that's
interesting when soccer you're
articulating that story here is
it's not quite clear to him so for
example like gas prices like did go down
it's not June 2022 anymore really the
the like the the insane peak of it yet
that depression in prices didn't
actually translate into further economic
confidence so that's not true Democratic
polls went up significantly I mean look
you would never be able to disaggregate
this from Roe versus Wade so I don't
know but
anyways no so the point isn't that my
point is just that
I wouldn't say I'd say the real problem
with the Biden folks faced is that
this isn't quite a policy issue
specifically so I would wager even if
they did the you know strategic
petroleum Reserve openings that you're
talking about back in June coinciding
with the price decrease
I think there's just a broader narrative
issue that any presidency is basically
going to fall into which is that we do
not broadly know how to deal or have a
frame run to the issue of inflation I
think the Trump presidency wouldn't have
been ready for inflation hitting the way
hitting the way it fit I don't think the
Trump Administration would have had like
a very specific articulable frame and
Democrats would have done well in this
circumstance too so no presidency right
now has figured out how to be in the
driver's seat and not be punished for
being in charge with this when these
when these issues happen uh I just it's
just there's so many issues from the
from the from the abortion issue to the
post-january 6 Reckoning to the war in
Ukraine for anyone to say like oh yeah
if they've done this policy thing or if
Biden had showed up there would have
been something useful there I think let
me just yeah let me let me when I say
spr I'm talking about an Administration
that is forward enough thinking to do
that without people even being critical
and I think that actually we're kind of
synced up on this which is that you have
to have a reframe of the entire U.S
government of what it's capable and
wants to do as to whether inflation was
even a real priority by the way it
wasn't a priority in terms of what they
were doing that is actually where I
would I think you and I are synced up on
this which is that the real crime that
they at is that they did not make people
feel like they cared there is a lot to
be said about you can give every speech
that you want and even policy itself as
you alluded to Ira nobody cares about
the inflation reduction act in this
election sorry doesn't matter there was
a yeah go ahead okay I mean I think
there was this feeling I you know asked
about why this was looked over I think
there was this feeling among Democrats
we even talked about it here that
um you know the entire 2020 election
would drive you know basically a split
between the Republican Party moderates
might you know now start to support
Democrats to you know stop this deal
folks would take over the party you know
it's kind of questionable what's
happened there and then there was you
know you mentioned you can't separate it
from Roe v Wade but the the abortion
issue in the U.S that it did you know
cause Democrat approval ratings to to
um to Skyrocket but it doesn't seem like
you know if for anyone counting on those
two issues to win an election it's just
not happening well two things happened
there so one Republicans course
corrected Ultra quickly on the abortion
issue and once again this is not like
I'm talking like abortion is a difficult
subject I'm talking purely political
Blake Masters in June deletes
pretty extreme abortion language from
his website just instantly and other
than a few random Twitter users there's
zero backlash on the right like the
right the pro-life side of things very
quickly was like look do whatever you
need to do to basically survive I think
if Blake Masters had maintained
basically implying that abortion should
be just permanently banned even in a
purple State like
um even in a purple State like Arizona
that would have been more of an issue
with the GOP course corrects very
quickly you also don't really have that
many Todd Aiken like instances where you
know you say oh you know legitimate rape
and oh is that like they they there have
been enough lessons of how not to do so
they close graduate degree and then
secondly when it came to the January 6
election denial issue there are a couple
candidates that I feel are really really
affected by this so like mastriano in in
Pennsylvania I would really say that the
gap between so he's running for governor
um against Josh Shapiro I would say the
gap between mastriano and Shapiro being
as big as it is versus the fact that
Federman and Osmond are pretty much tied
really would come down to a candidate
not being able to move Beyond just the
election denial thing but in the vast
majority of cases like Arizona Kerry
Lake hardcore election denier and many
of these races unlike in Pennsylvania
voters just are not voting on that
decision voters were voting on we don't
like the status quo and Kerry lake has
made clear she's the enemy of the status
quo and I don't really care what she was
up to back in January 2020. so I'm kind
of interested in why mastriano wasn't
able to pull and I think it's probably
political Talent Carrie lake is just
charismatic oh yeah yeah what do you
think it's just pure your political
Talent he's a [ __ ] like he's not a very
good speaker she's a star she's a
television personality and she genuinely
believes nothing which probably makes it
easier I think that mastriano is a
actual stop the steel True Believer
which is frankly to his detriment yeah
in terms of Prosecuting that case on the
election Integrity question
um you know look looking at the there
was also this belief that folks who
doubted the Integrity of Elections would
be sidelined obviously that hasn't
happened do we have in in the U.S do we
have a a real problem with election
Integrity like can you you know seeing
where we're going can you see a you know
Democratic process be overridden in this
country
uh I would say yeah the thing I'm most
scared about is a genuine constitutional
crisis with a mastriano or Kerry Lake
type figure where they just look the
Supreme Court will give a tremendous
amount of deference to States in terms
of how they administer their elections
so if they pre-set it up which
effectively saying that the state
election doesn't bind them on electors
that they send to the Electoral College
and to the Congress to certify there's
basically no way to get around that
because there's just never been an
inkling before that a secretary of state
or a governor who in Pennsylvania's case
is responsible for appointing secretary
of state would ever do such a thing but
it's very possible so yeah I mean that
probably worries me more than anything
but as many of the center leftists who
are very worried about Republican
Victory and many of these other schemes
have been saying they will not have to
pull any of that if they just lose if
the Democrats legitimately just lose the
election so that's uh yeah I mean yeah
that's they're not going to lose every
election and that is a concern well in
the swing States though right so like in
Pennsylvania and in Arizona if the GOP
wins which they have in the past and bid
under Trump I mean Trump Fame very close
then a lot of this is rendered moot but
that doesn't mean that nightmare
scenario isn't still a nightmare
scenario and this is the framing issue
that soccer where we just hinted at um
in terms of how I think central life
people are starting to reevaluate the
election Integrity thing so obviously
there's a huge elected official level
election Integrity problem
um you know you could just go through
the list and see not only just like bad
statements but like very articulated
here is my plan that would obviously
result in an elections doing the thing
um there are all sorts of
vulnerabilities within the system that I
think at a technocratic level need to be
attacked and focused on the mistake
though that it seems to me the Biden
Democrats made is they confused the
let's say like the the serious like
policy and literal real world
implications of election Integrity
issues with the actual political cases
they needed to be making because it
seemed to me that you should have spent
your time making clear that hey
like zero point soccer economy the
inflation Joe Biden inherited Trump's
covet economy and he's a firefighter and
all he's doing for these next two years
is fixing that so therefore if anything
like if your house is burning and a
firefighter comes you're not mad at the
firefighter for there being some fire up
there instead it was we're just moving
on and we're dealing with this you know
broad set of issues including January
6th but it really just should have been
focusing the the economy at the center
of it knowing that the thing that would
cause what say a 2024 election nightmare
would be a bad economy plus Doug
mastriano as the governor of
Pennsylvania right and if you don't
solve the two of these together quote
unquote that's actually what causes the
nightmare scenario so on the bad economy
uh we both parties obviously have their
economic plans is there any hope that
there's some good policy in there that
could help fix this situation or do we
just have to let it run its course
I haven't seen a democratic proposal to
quote fight inflation
um I mean in reality they just seem to
be this is the problem right which is a
inflation reduction act the inflation
reduction
this is this well okay I mean it does
have to do with inflation in the way
that I guess pays takes 300 billion
dollars and pays down the deficit I mean
there's a technical case I didn't like
that bill there was there was a lot of
common sense stuff and agree with you
yeah Alex I support many Provisions
inside the inflation reduction act they
should have called it the electric
vehicles act by the way electric
vehicles are very popular so I don't
really know why they didn't go with that
so if I tried to Hoodwink people and say
that it was the IRA act and inflation
reduction all that and then when people
are you know people aren't stupid they
could see exactly what's in it they're
like this is [ __ ] and so look from
what I have seen there has been no
concrete proposal yet for the Democrats
to quote unquote deal with inflation
outside of very technocratic fixes this
also presumes that quote inflation can
be solved right at this level how about
is actually quite simple which is to cut
spending and to encourage the Federal
Reserve to keep what it's doing to
induce a recession and have enough
demand destruction occur on top of high
uh high unemployment that we solve
inflation by destroying demand so which
also happens to benefit the uh no I know
there's that there's a there's nothing
to align with their Orthodoxy and
happens political I mean I would say the
real crime on the bite administrations
so this guy I'll never get over it it's
like the entire year of 2021 and just
letting so many of these problems go
unfixed I mean air travel uh gas man you
know that's the other thing on inflation
you can break it down it's not that
difficult to figure it out the vast
majority of inflation that people
experience in their lives is food gas
and housing so those are the three that
I would spend every single day uh
attacking vast majority of the early
inflation in 2021 was all gas so if you
woke up every single day she's just been
obsessed with the price of gas same with
the heating oil and this is all even
pre-ukraine you know yeah I mean that's
why I've been studying this now for
quite a long time I actually don't think
it was that difficult to get a hold on
but when you let something run its
course for over 18 months it's very hard
to put back in the bottle at this point
I think demand destruction which is the
federal reserve's policy is the only
thing that is going to quote unquote
work because I don't think any PL I
don't think either party really has a
political incentive to do exactly what
I'm talking about given the way things
are right now and I think that's a sad
story for for American for the American
economy to be honest right I think
judging just big tax earnings last week
you know that's that fed plan seems to
be working well sorry Amazon my gosh
yeah no it's just I think so I think
soccer you're getting to the end well
this is what we're kind of focused on in
Breaking points in the realignment kind
of like this story of the parties just
switching off
um party comes in wins the presidency
they get destroyed in the midterms the
underlying political problem right now
is I don't think either party has an
accurate diagnosis of the set of pro the
set of like deeper structural problems
facing the country right now and
therefore isn't able quote unquote to
like focus in on addressing the problems
of let's say like 2025 now
um this is why you know you don't you
don't want to sound partisan because
look like it's not as if like the Trump
Administration
um was crushing propping America's
Supply chains in 2017-2019. so I kind of
think of
this honestly depressing political
decade
as this example of
tossing power back and forth
short-term attempts to fix long-term
problems that basically aren't going to
work and that's going to have to
basically continue on until something
structurally changes but I think this
gets to I think the point for optimism
where I think the place where the Biden
Administration has just been at its best
has been semiconductor policy especially
relating to China
um that's an example of a a long-term
structural issue you can't just snap
your fingers and like reduce dependency
on Taiwan you can't just snap your
fingers and have a bunch of new Fabs
built in Arizona this requires thinking
along a 10-year time frame and they've
been able to do that they've been able
to do it like very effectively this is a
completely bipartisan lots of support
for this policy and I think a real
question to ask is how or why weren't
they able to translate that type of
approach to other sets of structural
issues in the same fashion because
there's just so much of a focusing that
happens via let's say like China and
competition there the actually can get
around that unhelpful Dynamic so that's
something I'm really interested in like
learning more about do you have any
thoughts on the answer to your question
I don't think it's that difficult
there's a bipartisan consensus that's it
it's one of the few areas of those
genuine bipartisan consensus which you
have to give the Trump Administration
credit they set the rhetorical grounds
for that and effectively won the
intellectual battle and there were a lot
of people in Washington who worked very
very hard in order to bring that type of
legislation and initiative to the fore
on a bipartisan basis they're people who
all work behind the scenes Republican
and Democratic administrations to me it
actually just proves the fact that if
you could win the quote argument with
the establishment then you're fine they
said policy but if you're on the other
side uh then I think it's a crap shoot
right the other the other answer too is
just
politically speaking it's very clear
that Biden Folks at the National
Security Council and like members of
Congress are like oh it's it's a very
good
it's simple it's oh the U.S is hyper
dependent on Taiwanese microchips there
is more likely than not going to be some
type of conflict
um either with between the United States
and China over Taiwan between Taiwan and
China which would devastate
microchips it would devastate production
shortages like really disruptive way of
life so they are so focused in on how
simple this is that the solution was
once again there's debated debate about
how effective the chip tax is but it's
like okay hey like let's make sure we
increase the availability of domestic
ships and then B let's not let China
benefit from our like know-how
technology Talent Etc I think what you
needed to have happen I think this is
where like I'm a pretty consistent
critic of pre-bootage edge I think
Buddha judge should have said to himself
my only job right now as Secretary of
Transportation a position that people
basically usually don't care about is I
am the guy who needs to make sure that
America's Supply chains are treated the
same way as a semiconductor issue and I
think the ability to translate that
straightforward focus into something
real could have been really exciting
instead of just playing defense
um obviously secretary Buddha judge is
very engaged on the like Airlines issue
but that's after the fact it's defensive
it's oh now I'm calling up Airlines now
I'm flying coach it's just really it's
just kind of shocking to me because it
seems to me that it's just such an
obvious apparent narrative issue that
the inability to translate that into
something in any other issue balsamic
conductors is is kind of shocking yeah I
want to talk about one more
International issue before we move on to
some predictions and then take a break
and talk text so underlying a lot of
this even though inflation started
before the Ukraine situation the war in
Ukraine
um that didn't help right energy costs
are way up I spent a lot of time in
Europe over the past year and it's a
real crisis in places like Germany so
there's been this interesting back and
forth in the U.S Congress where like
there's there's been some rubblings of
trying to
um
get the ukrainians to to say okay we've
we've held our ground let's just find
some compromise and and be done with
this war
um but that's become somewhat
politically complicated there was that
letter from
um the progressives that ended up they
ended up retracting and blaming their
staff on which was an interesting move
um where where does the U.S support for
the war on Ukraine stand
um and sorry support for the ukrainians
in the war in in Ukraine stand does that
change with the uh with the election and
and how you know could a peaceful
resolution
uh change our situation here in the U.S
uh yeah it's it's it's it's interesting
because
so much of this I tend to think of like
the war in Ukraine in like three-month
inclement increments so for example like
let's go back to June July August
ukrainians are talking about how there's
going to be this counter-offensive
something's happening something's gonna
happen there's lots of excitement then
nothing happens the whole time obviously
you're having like a brutal brutal
brutal War
um in the donbass like lots lots lots of
like incredible like we High Ukrainian
casualties like the Washington Post had
some very very depressing reading on
this from my perspective
if the ukrainians had not been able to
convert
that summer
real like I'm trying to find the right
word for this but if they had not been
able to convert just like the death and
destruction of the summer into that
September offensive the Ukraine Aid
debate will be entirely different
because now the problem is if you're
looking back to like May and June I know
you have a lot of listeners probably
listen to like David sacks kind of the
problem with like the David sacks
position is David sacks was basically
saying hey like we need to force the
ukrainians to the table back in May and
June because this is just a stalemate
people were dying they're dying for
nothing
if the ukrainians had come to the table
in June they wouldn't have taken back
what they took back
over the past two or three months there
wouldn't be talk of taking back cursing
so my genuine take on this issue is you
are not going to see actual Ukrainian
willingness to concede until they've
actually reached the limits of what they
could actually move and the key thing is
like right now isw Institute for study
of War they've done some good analysis
and Reporting they've basically
concluded that the Russians are not
going to be able to launch major
offensives going into 2023. so if you're
a Ukrainian in that context why would
you possibly make concessions quote
unquote when you're on the offensive my
real beef with folks who are on the get
the ukrainians to the table position is
that they pretty con and soccer is not
one of these people it's not like you
know trying to like pre-dunk or anything
but there's just been this pretty
consistent unwillingness to think at a
strategic level why would that make any
sense you don't go to the table when you
could get an additional mile of
territory
um so that's the overall friends I'm
thinking about and as long as the
ukrainians are able to do that
I think the aid packages are going to be
pretty straightforward and continue
there's still broad support for the
policy Vladimir Putin doesn't mean he
issued huge another state when he was
like what are you talking about like we
were never gonna launch nukes like
that's crazy
um so I just I think there's a there's
just like a weird a weird dynamic here
but it's only going to change if the
ukrainians start losing yeah there's
that feeling it's a strong how uh no if
I'm weak how can I compromise and if I'm
strong why should I so yeah well sorry
which is that usaid belies all Ukrainian
strength Ukraine does not exist without
the United States in fact current
Ukrainian maximalist aims are not the
aims of the United States nor should
they be zelenski said yesterday
that Ukraine wants to quote liberate
Crimea
it's not a USA because that's a red line
for Russia so that would actually lead
to a very high likelihood of a U.S
entrance to that war or the very likely
some sort of escalation and this is
where I just completely disagree which
is that all Ukrainian victories policy
Choice by the United States and to what
and where that line should be and how
they negotiate actually is entirely up
to us given the fact that we backstop
their entire U.S military their ISR
everything so the entire Ukraine first
like Ukraine limits what if it turns out
that their limit is the red line across
the Russians and then we enter into a
war that's not in the interests of the
us and this is why I just reject
entirely Ukraine first approach by the
way I know I'm going to get a lot of
haters for this one awesome don't care
um and look I mean I know it's unpopular
to say well it's unpopular in Elite
circles to say broadly the US public
generally says that we've given quite
enough Aid to Ukraine we don't need any
more Aid to Ukraine you know if you look
at much of the a that is still being
considered for Ukraine they're
considering an additional 50 billion in
U.S dollars in the next Democratic
Administration and again like there's no
limiting Principle as to what this Aid
is going to be put towards except for
the president of the United States and
look Joe Biden is old he could drop dead
tomorrow and we could have an entirely
new policy under the vice president so
I'll stick up for David Sachs which is
that I'm not entirely sure that the
limits of Ukrainian military potential
line up with the interests of the United
States at all and considering the fact
that we've literally backstopped their
entire military their government does
not exist like this is the thing I want
people to actually grapple with Ukraine
is a polity does not exist without the
United States if tomorrow we cut off our
aid from them they would literally
collapse in terms of their economy their
bonds their budgets everything is
American so I just think we have a hell
of a lot more of a say in this than
people like to think and I think that
people should be honest that their most
Maximus AIMS in Ukraine are actually the
opposite of major U.S interests and
that's something that I just get so
frustrated does with the debate yeah
yeah go ahead the quick thing in
response to that though is the debate
right in terms of so look zielinski says
a lot of things
not going to use nukes he might no but
the key thing is though
tactically and strategically on the
ground the debate right now is not do
the ukrainians overrun Crimea right now
that's a good Bomb crime yeah okay but
once again though the question isn't do
they overrun but we're just talking
white tactical because you're saying
they could like invade Crimea and that's
like the red line the actual debate
that's happening right now is are the
ukrainians going to be able to take that
cursive like that's the actual fight
that's happening on the ground now so
obviously if the body administration
were in a position where we're saying to
ourselves holy crap they've routed the
Russians everywhere except Crimea
they've completely taken them back to
the February actually even before
February 2022 status quo do we need to
force them to the table that is a
different conversation than right now
and all I was trying to say with my beef
with they need to concede in May and
June and July was if they made
concessions then they would have not
have taken back hundreds of miles of
territory that they took back and the
only reason why
and one one other thing in response I
know Alex like you need to get in here
this is your show I shouldn't hijack it
but I think push that guys hijacked this
thing so go forward my pushback here is
like no one
the vast majority of people are not
going to say to themselves we're just
cutting off Ukraine that is just so
outside the bounds that a the vast
majority of policy makers hold and
frankly the vast majority of the
American right the vast majority of the
American people support like the current
policy no that's not true but it's true
that is true the vast majority of the
American people quote support Ukraine
they have no idea what the current
policy is and that's actually what I my
entire you can't prove
this is this is why the debate gets
unfair because now I want to understand
yeah now I want to ask does this change
if you know if and when the Republicans
take the house it's possible but not
really so Kevin McCarthy has said that
Kevin McCarthy said that he won't pass
anymore a to Ukraine in my opinion he
will absolutely fall to the blob and
we'll 100 do that Mitch McConnell said
that that's not true I want to be clear
that everything I'm saying is an
absolute minority position in Washington
and then my view has absolutely zero
power in the U.S uh political system so
let me just absolutely put that on the
table including in the establishment so
that's 100 clear now on Ukraine and
Ukraine itself like I said the numbers
say that people are like we've done
enough in terms of the money uh
bipartisan split Republicans are much
more likely to say that we've gotten
actually too much to Ukraine Democrats
it's actually polarizing right along
cultural lines but by and large I'm not
even saying cut off Ukraine what I'm
saying is acknowledge that we are 100 in
the driver's seat John Kirby the U.S
national security adviser spokesperson
the Biden Administration continues to
say Ukraine first only zielinski gets to
decide when we negotiate and my pushback
against what you're saying Marshall is
how do you know that you're going to
have the ability to tell Ukraine to stop
at that things on the battlefield move
very quickly they're offensive the
majority of the land that they took back
happened in 48 hours that's not far
enough in order to prevent a major
Global conflagration so this gets to My
overall meta political meta geopolitical
critique which is that people are very
willing to gamble with the future of the
United States in a potential war with
Russia over several hundred square miles
in Ukraine and I'm just very comfortable
saying that I am not willing to take
that gamble I would absolutely bet and I
have dreams of political polling to show
this the vast majority of Americans do
not want to be put in that situation
they do not want to have any sort of
major confrontation with Russia all the
no-fly zone polling put that and that's
why I would say Marshall that why I'm
feel comfortable saying people quote
support Ukraine but don't wouldn't
support the current policy is if the
Biden Administration and the president
who has said that we have quote nuclear
Armageddon as a possibility were to I
genuinely understand that people would
say well what the [ __ ] are you gonna can
I curse sorry yeah yeah people are going
to say what are you going to do to
prevent that from happening and I think
there's a reason that the president and
the administration don't want us to have
that conversation the more that people
know there would be a hell of a lot more
questioning about this well let's move
on to some some predictions
um and by the way I think that Ukraine
could end up be being left in a pretty
good position it's won back a lot of
territories so it is in that position
what does that mean what does that mean
a good position I mean it could look I
think that there was a oh God well here
I'm opening Pandora's Box again but it's
one back position for who yeah right for
Ukraine I mean right now if it says okay
and the U.S because Russia obviously is
framing itself as our enemy the U.S it's
a good position for Ukraine it's good
position for the US it's a good position
for NATO like Vladimir Putin is
explicitly arguing this is a war against
us a word so why should we fulfill that
we don't want to have a war with Russia
we're not that's why we don't have
enough fly zone that's why there are no
boots on the ground yeah but the Biden
policy is working like that's that's
what's crazy this is where I just did we
know like Adam kinsiger book if Adam
kinziger is president of the United
States and he's making the call to send
f-16s to create civilian corridors that
could start like a [ __ ] sorry a war
between the US and Russia you guys are
bossy but like the person
you're on a very professional podcast
Alex we're we're reticent but the
underlying thing here is the Biden
policy has worked Putin consistently has
figured out that the vulnerability in
the American political discourse is him
making fake claims about nuclear weapons
and then the second that anyone calls
him on he says whoa whoa whoa whoa what
are you what are you talking about the
the Russian ambassador to the United
Kingdom is like whoa look what are you
talking about it's fake it's not real
obviously I think you should just factor
that in but we have to gamble with
millions of lives
you know what it is no can't no so
that's soccer okay
yeah we're moving on the definition of
gambling was the no-fly zone that was a
literal gamble the gamble would be if we
save us no fly zone the US would be in a
position where it would have to shoot
down a Russian aircraft we think that
they wouldn't actually use a nuke
because they did it so we're gonna do it
anyways there has been no equivalent of
that Gamble and that's the key thing
okay I will say for my final word which
is that saying that the quote-unquote
policy has worked in a conflict which is
going to drag on for years is like
saying X policy has worked in 1939 nine
months after Hitler invaded X policy
worked after the beginning of World you
could make a very credible case for the
first world war in the first nine months
you could make a very credible case on
the other side we'll find out I see many
pitfalls and I don't see anybody raising
any of the questions that I think should
have been raised in many of those
conflicts I hope you guys are right the
consequences are very wrong if you are
and I care more about the consequences
than I do about any of the quote unquote
potential success on the battlefield I
just can't be willing to bet I would be
willing to bet in the long run most
people will agree with me I just want to
state that for the record that my
position is that they are either at the
point or close to the point where it's
time to come to the table and and find a
way to end this oh I I disagree with
that completely Alex but wait you wait
you don't want I won't move on to the
tech part do you think there's going to
be a negotiation tomorrow okay anyway
let's let's move on yeah yeah okay
um predictions so let's just go through
some quick predictions um first of all
where do you guys think the midterms are
gonna net out what is that what do you
think the results are going to be this
is gonna be a point of agreement we've
just did a disagreements soccer team
yeah own this time you're the political
analyst Red Wave
53 seats in the senate for Republicans I
think they sweep and win every single
contestable one including the Nevada he
speaks to me on this topic by the way I
don't I'm not saying it's a good thing
I'm just telling you based on look I
believe in fundamentals economy is
terrible inflation is high crime is high
priority and power always loses combine
all those three it's not difficult all
polls are moving in that direction reams
of political science data tell us that
people don't care about elections until
three weeks out that's right now which
is why the polls now actually matter a
lot more than the polls two months ago
voter activity uh and all of that even
in the individual level for many of
these races everything seems to be
converging in that direction again right
it's possible I mean I should I should
tell people like it's actually very
possible that we could have uh Redux of
the 2020 election whenever you have uh
whenever you have the runoff in Georgia
be the deciding factor in Georgia you
have to go over 50 in order to win the
election out right not possible
currently that Herschel Walker may do
that and actually a runoff you know the
political climate could change in
January we don't know necessarily but
for that to matter it would mean that
Mark Kelly hangs onto a seat in Arizona
that Dr Oz doesn't win in Pennsylvania
that you know Nevada doesn't go to I
think his name is Adam laxalt anyway so
it's complicated it's possible that
polling Miss goes in the other direction
but if you look at the Miss from 2020
and 2016 of which I am you know I am
liable to do given the way that polls
have been wrong whenever Republicans
have been on the ballot and
underestimated I don't think it's a
that's difficult of a story and here's
the follow-up what does the US look like
for the next two years after this red
wave
oh t uh tea party
2010 to 2012 is a pretty good uh pretty
good analogy all right disagreement
though the key thing though and this is
what's so fascinating
tea party 2010 to 2012 is establishment
GOP right this is Insurgent GOP that
isn't true now because and a DeSantis
was Trump race would kind of maybe push
on this pressure point but
what the GOP establishment has really
managed to do over like the 2010s period
And this is you know there have been
some moral concessions that made this
possible the GOP establishment has fully
been able to subsume many if not most of
those like internal debates so like in
2010 and 2012 it's like all these
primaries and all these establishment
figures are getting knocked out like
Eric Cantor was going to be speaker of
the house and in 2014 he's like knocked
out that's over because the only
question that really matters for the GOP
for the next two years is do you support
Trump yay or nay vast majority of
Republican electeds like obviously do
support Trump despite the talk of
DeSantis and B
even if there was like a point of like
battle quote unquote you have one
presidential debate where Trump's Max
DeSantis which I think he would that's
over very very very quickly so there's
no like big existential debate about
like the the direction of the party are
we defunding Obamacare again that's the
real difference between those two
periods I don't disagree I what I'm more
meant is just chaos which is that
General functions of General functions
of government are not going to work like
the government will not get funded on
time there will be debt ceiling crises
there will be like hold UPS of if a
supreme court position you know somebody
dies it's definitely not going to get
filled so just get ready for that yeah I
meant like obstruction on a very basic
legislative level that's what the next
two years ago and at a moment where our
economy is already teetering that that
sounds bad
um okay next question for you guys is uh
are they going to impeach Biden
uh no I don't think so there's gonna be
there'll be there's gonna be like
there's gonna be some some like talk of
it but the problem
it's Uncle Joe it's Joe Biden it's like
remember Alex at the start of the
episode you're talking about Joe Biden
it's a little harder to do the boogeyman
stuff Joe Biden culture War specifically
yeah I really just think it also hasn't
been like a scam there's not been a Joe
Biden scandal and also no one cares
about Hunter like I'll say like let me
put this no people Hunter Biden is a
terrible look people like kind of like
don't like Hunter Biden that said it's
like wow the president has this super
screwed up kid who needs to work with
things there's just like no there's no
equivalent
um of I think those Obama era or Trump
era scandals I'm trying to think it's
possible that they would impeach him
just because remember everybody that the
technical definition of impeachment is
just that it has to pass the House of
Representatives I actually could see
that happening uh would there be a trial
in the U.S Senate an eventual conviction
no I don't think so so is that you know
does that square it yeah it's okay and
last one is uh before we go to break is
is Trump running again in 24 and is he
going to win
uh
yes to run when
if he doesn't get indicted I think he'll
probably win Marshall the thing that's
weird for me Trump is going to run Trump
easily wins the primary
I'm I'm in this weird position where I
think
this is why it's weird if you're like a
pro-trump person
Trump is the Republican who could lose
to Biden
just
yeah he's the only one he's that's
that's the very content so like he
easily beats DeSantis
but like that said I think Trump just
provokes such a visceral the hatred that
Trump evokes
in in Centrist to Independent to many
left voters is just enough that I see
him being able to pull it out for about
it that's the weirdest but and then
that's like the best that's the weird
contradiction here
um I would not want to be uh oh and this
is and this is also why DeSantis can't
win the primary DeSantis can't actually
make that argument right
the most obvious argument for DeSantis
to make is guys are we really during the
most layup election opportunity of all
time Joe Biden is going to be like 81
years old we're really going to
re-nominate Donald Trump who everyone
hates he can't actually hey he's not
brave enough to say it he's not bold
enough to say it but that would also
activate the the hatred that people in
the gop's base heal for people who don't
cyber Trump so like DeSantis I do not
see a political way but DeSantis gets
out of that Dynamic
okay let's take a break we come back
right back after this talk a little bit
about tech we have Marshall kosov and
Sagar and Jetty here from the
realignment
by the way do you guys have how much
time do you guys have left I was gonna
say I'm on a bit of a crunch yeah I got
like 15 minutes Mark Okay Marshall what
about you yeah that's that's all right
let's do 15. okay if is that okay
perfect perfect yeah okay all right go
ahead and we're back here on big
technology podcast with Sagar and Jetty
from and Marshall casla from the
realignment uh you might also see them
on YouTube at breaking points
um my favorite some of my favorite stuff
I recommend you go check it out uh both
in your podcast app of choice and on
YouTube uh we got 15 minutes left why
don't we hit some tech topics um
first of all Twitter so Elon did it
um it's been a couple days not by choice
it looks like yes
do we do we no longer hear the complaint
about
um how social media censors
conservatives now that Elon is running
Twitter
that was a good take um I think you
tweeted this yeah this is this is a good
topic from you because also you may have
soccer I'm sure you've noticed this in
the discourse like social media
censorship is a very like 2019 era issue
it's just not even like separate from
just like Twitter separate from Japan
there's a reason I chose social has just
not blown up I think we are just in this
weird moment where the broad electorate
is moving past that set of issues in
both directions so like talking about I
think one of Obama's like worst
political calls was like literally like
right before the inflation issue blowing
up doing that big conference on
disinformation and misinformation not in
the sense that they aren't real issues
but in the sense that you would just
clearly look at the space right now
these are not going to be the animating
issues uh of for the electorate I think
that's actually true in both cases
and what about elon's ties with with
China we're already seeing uh you know
members of the uh you know
I called Chinese propaganda machine you
know telling Elon to please take their
labels off
um is that you know him running uh
Twitter is that is that some sort of
liability there it's a huge concern I've
talked I did a whole monologue on it uh
Tesla and about the amount of Interest
here's the issue the vast majority of
his wealth is where Tesla stock well
Tesla they made a huge bet on the CCP on
their supply chains so look I have no
idea which is this is always the issue
with Elon when is he serious when is he
not when is he actually committed to
free speech when isn't he is he gonna
buy Twitter is he not is Twitter really
going to change that much my honest
answer is no I really don't think so so
in on the Chinese thing I just think it
would be so insane for him to remove
those labels that he I don't think that
he would do that am I concerned on other
areas if they're like hey please ban
this xinjiang activists in Singapore or
something like that that is where I
think we should really watch and see but
again you know the backlash to him doing
so in the U.S would be so immense that
he's kind of squeezed on all sides I
just want to reiterate this is why Bob
Iger did not buy Twitter and I think he
made one of the great calls of all time
and he's like you know what I don't want
to deal with this [ __ ] and he was right
yeah and the key thing to add to what
Sandra Ruiz said to is regardless of
whether Ian Bremner was right or or Elon
Musk right I hope the lesson that Elon
has learned
the past month is it this geopolitical
stuff quote unquote to be super
non-technical is so perilous do not
touch it like this is like the genuine
Elon like do not offer peace plans for
Taiwan
um good luck with that advice just yeah
like but but this is this is the but
here's the thing though
this is getting so perilous I think he's
actually gonna have to take the advice
um like that I think I think I think
that's the key thing
um look our show the realignment like
breaking points our whole show is about
how our shows are about the fact that
the world is changing in the world of
2023 2024
where there is open Talk of a Chinese
invasion of Taiwan the freelancing it's
2010s we're having a good time Vibe
doesn't genuinely like it's not
sustainable anymore
um so it's not going to really matter
um if those mistakes keep getting made
let's talk uh speaking of China let's
talk about Tick Tock um it's interesting
in the Trump Administration there was
talk that uh you know Tick Tock would be
bad didn't happen we actually talked
about in our last show if anything it
seems like there's more interest in in
Banning Tick Tock where does that go
I don't know I don't think the biod
administration is the balls to ban it I
really just don't I mean everything that
I've seen uh you know they did the
Huawei thing that's cute everybody knows
Huawei is a Chinese spy operation I just
don't think that they are willing to
sacrifice the eventual backlash amongst
the young voters they had a bunch of
tick tock Stars at the White House just
yesterday on an administrative case
everybody knows it should be banned
we've got reams of evidence at this
point it's a huge knock against Trump
that he was such a [ __ ] that he wasn't
even able to do it in the first place
but I do not see a world right now where
the Biden Administration is able to do
it given the backlash that they would
receive amongst younger voters of whom
they are already uh whom they're already
suffering it's possible I just don't see
it I think the
interesting fact they'll add to your
point Sager is that if you're talking
about 2022 to 2024 as being a period of
chaos I do see there as being a ward
we're just looking for a like consensus
bod broad bipartisan win at my
perspective Tick Tock gets banned it's
like in mid-2023.
voters are disengaged right the election
isn't happening
um you you just you you and also we're
saying the word band but there's a
variety of other things too there's this
yeah there's the for sale
and it's it's generally genuinely like a
flabbergasting
because also if there is any conference
Taiwan it's going to happen anyway for
me the question isn't like
is there going to be some form of tick
tock spin out disinvestiture then it's
going to happen at some point
um the unwillingness to pull the pin
despite the awkwardness is is deeply
frustrating
because I want to use tick tock I don't
use I don't use tick tock um if someone
had a I mean Alex I'm curious what you
think of it someone had a funny take on
Twitter where they're like
hey look there's a world where like you
know spinning it out it's like a value
creation opportunity uh there are like
huge limits on like people who could use
tick tock how it could be used Tick Tock
how you could use it like the
uncertainty about like the actual white
policy space that can make it so like a
more a safer Tick Tock quote unquote
um would actually create a lot more
value so that's that's frustrating for
me yeah I mean the question is if you do
spin it out do you then divorce it from
The Innovation taking place to buy dance
which has led to it right this is
Facebook is trying hard to catch up with
Tick Tock it can't
um so I I think that um it's difficult
to just say let's take it as it is today
and spin it out and it will remain
competitive what do you guys think about
um I love talking to you guys about web3
I feel like every time we check in with
each other there's you know a different
perspective what is web3 is this
actually hype now
um you know I've been uh getting all
these pitches in my inbox from web3
companies and I feel like they're like
using the last bits of their funding to
try to you know build that class you
know can we get that last bit of hype
before we die
um what do you guys think ask Marshall
Marshall go ahead Marshall
I'm trying not to be too mean because
like because this is okay quick quick
side I said this to biology screen of
Boston once biology was you know
bringing up like remember in 2000 when
that business week analyst said that
Amazon was just killed that shows how
bad the tech press could be when it
comes to like getting these things wrong
but I think everyone who talks about
tech now has the image of that cover in
our head so none of us want to actually
go and do that newspaper they're done
owned like no no one's actually so ever
I just it's just very funny like this
idea that mental Frameworks actually
shift how people do it like so to not be
the Amazon business analyst
I think web3 look I never bought any
white crypto seriously I was interested
in web 3. I think there was a narrative
idea that really mattered to people this
idea that the internet status quo was
not working no one is happy with where
web2 ended up quote unquote all the
social media platforms are really having
trouble right now for some you know
Twitter power users aren't tweeting as
much anymore right it's queer that
something is ending and something new is
beginning
if web3 Founders and Builders focus in
on let's build the next thing rather
than the skewed Financial incentives of
basically 2020 to 2022 that's what I'm
basically excited about because there's
just like a real openness to something
real but there needs to be more focus on
the something real because I I did a lot
of web3 tech interviews and I genuinely
would not know what people were talking
about like I do I host this podcast
about the deep end I went on Deck Alex
has been on I'd interview these web
three founders and I genuinely would be
like am I missing something yeah I'm
just sort of like I don't know like
people say things like oh you know we
were promised this internet but they
lied to us I'm like I don't know like
does an average consumer like feel that
way right so people it's on it's on the
illness for people to prove they're real
right now
so yeah I feel the same I mean I think a
lot of the hype was cringe I think a lot
of the people who were pushing it really
be clowned themselves that being said
like I'm not gonna
I don't want to dismiss the technology
for that reason I'm not a technologist I
don't know there were a lot of promises
but there were also a lot of promises
around the way the web would evolve from
1999. everybody was wrong but they were
also right that the web did change
everything so I you know look I'm just
waiting I'm waiting to see proof in the
pudding uh I would be I would like to
see a change to the modern internet but
I would really counter to a lot of the
web 3 folks which is that it turns out
that one of the most significant
developments in web 2 was just Elon
buying Twitter what if Elon is able to
restore the wild west feeling of the web
on Twitter which is an ad supported
platform which is centrally controlled
that kind of you know it's kind of a
case against some of the use case right
I'm going to be interested to see if
that happens and if that's possible you
know I've heard a lot of hype around the
blockchain and all that other stuff but
again you know look it's possible okay
the whole web1.com thing laid all the
fiber optics and made web 2 possible you
know so it's who knows who knows what's
gonna happen let's hit metaverse before
we leave Zuckerberg seems intent to
build this metaverse even if it turns
Facebook into a company whose valuation
is less than annual revenue I mean I'm
being a little facetious here but
Facebook's been absolutely hammered due
to its commitment to this metaverse idea
you guys can answer quickly do you think
that this metaverse thing is going to
happen
I struggle with this one you know why
but all recent history tells us you
should never bet against suck
um like he was right about Instagram he
was right about mobile he was right
about the news feed
you know yeah like he was right against
every single big call in the history of
Facebook that said I don't get this one
um like the world is just not signing up
to attend virtual conferences they're
just not I haven't used an Oculus yet
see this is where I'm just torn I'm like
man I don't know I shouldn't bet against
the guy I'm like should I buy one but
I'm like I don't need one I actually
there's literally nothing that I could
do with it that I want or need to do and
then like there's something about that
key has not yet been switched with the
technology I don't know I'm curious what
do you think Alex I mean you might know
more than I do oh it's really tough I
mean I think that we're definitely going
to see some Enterprise uses for it we
might see you know some uh training
education you can see it in museums all
that stuff makes sense right but when it
comes to like us all hanging out and
some metaverse I just don't see the case
for it so yeah all right well my quick
my quick thing on this is
yeah uh
my back
soccer can you see him
no I can't I Can See Marshall but it
says you're offline
it says I'm offline no it says
Marshall's offline wow this is strange
it's just like six cent stuff
um odd
Marshall is here Marshall do you want to
just refresh and maybe we can yeah why
don't you just refresh your page
weird yeah I've never seen that happen
before
he's back
hmm
let me
I completely agree so uh Alex sell or
buy meta down 20 right now geez I'm
thinking about buying it to be honest
yeah advice not Financial advice
um I I would probably I would buy it I
don't trust the guy I mean look I'm
putting aside my content you know
anything I'm just like look from a
business perspective yeah one of the
Best Bets in the world you could do is
give Mark Zuckerberg your money in the
year 2000 also you're right you're so if
you buy meta today you make two bets
right you sort of get two bets for for
one dollar right one is metaverse works
out you're in great shape two is Mark
Zuckerberg says metaverse isn't gonna
work and then the stock shoots up we're
gonna double evaluation
so
so it's good the only way you actually
lose that money is if Zuckerberg says
we're gonna put more money into the
metaverse which he did say on the most
recent earnings call so sorry to all the
investors that hold it Marshall soccer
thank you so much for joining really
great to catch up with you guys hey good
to see you man it's good talking yeah
super fun um you can check out Marshall
and Sagar on the realignment available
in your podcast app of choice one of my
go-to podcasts also check out breaking
points on YouTube realignments also on
YouTube all the places go check it out
uh thanks everybody for listening thank
you Nick guatney for doing the audio
thank you LinkedIn for having me as part
of your podcast Network we'll be back on
Wednesday with another show
um thank you for being here for the past
couple ones we've done uh you know Tech
strategy we've done Tech Finance now the
bigger world the broader world so we're
covering all bases all right we'll see
you next time on big technology podcast