Saagar Enjeti and Marshall Kosloff on Midterms, Trump, Economy, and Ukraine
Channel: Alex Kantrowitz
Published at: 2022-11-06
YouTube video id: UscJoxbn6vo
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UscJoxbn6vo
welcome to the big technology podcast a show for cool-headed nuanced conversation of the tech world and Beyond and today we focus on the Beyond and then we move back to the tech world because Marshall and Sagar are here uh we've had them a couple times Marshall kosov and Sagar and Jetty um from the great realignment podcast one of my favorite shows also from breaking points also from the Lincoln network not the Lincoln project not going to get that wrong and uh and look we're gonna um the the world right now uh is in a state of transition uh politics and the economy are linked maybe more than never uh before or actually more than we've had in recent years um and so let's talk a little bit about what's going on in the US in the globe ahead of the 2022 midterms and then uh break down things like Elon and Twitter uh and the metaverse web3 it'll be fun I promise okay so let's start let's start with this question uh first of all welcome to the show guys good to see you man I'm back I've almost forgot to welcome you welcome um just got excited about going right into the questions and I just want to start here I'm a little bit confused and maybe you guys can help bring me uh you know up to speed about like the mood in the US and what's going on uh in U.S politics because you know there's so many issues that I've been batting about um you know inflation culture War real war and Ukraine abortion stop this deal in Trump economy etc etc and you know it's really been tough I think to take the political temperature of of the United States right now what is the feel in the country um obviously it seems like the Republicans are are heading to um you know some wins in these midterms but you know what yeah what is the feel in the country what are what are the animating issues right now oh that's a great question uh it's actually not that difficult which is that number one is economy and as inflation inflation is Raging it's the number one issue fundamentals that's what people care about the most actually after that is where there is a partisan split so if you look at the number two issue basically by voter for GOP voters number two issue is mostly crime and immigration if those are intermixed depending on which part of the country that you live if you look at Democratic voters it's actually abortion and then after that uh kind of January 6 related democracy quote unquote it so anyway the point being that it's effectively economy and then culture but the culture of who Mick of the mix of those depends on the type of voter if you were to look at an independent voter in this election they're more likely to Trend in their priorities to where the traditional GOP voter would be but in general the point that I would underscore is that no matter where you are on the Spectrum this is an election of chaos because the number of people who are saying the country is on the wrong track is based not as high as it was during 2020 but it's still pretty damn close I think the number is like 87 or something like that there's a deep level of dissatisfaction in general institutionally and that's being capitalized on by both parties yeah and what I'd add to that because I want to get to the mood part of your questions I'd say the mood of the country the mood is just kind of down there's this perception of things not working well of the administration not really having a handle on the issues that are top of Mind where I think gets to the broader political problem is that it's not as if any one specific party has an answer to this question so I don't think we have to pretend that Kevin McCarthy's Republican party is going to solve inflation or solve the energy issue when it comes into office and this is also why when you know Trump was up in the midterms of 2018 he also had a terrible midterms so we're basically in this difficult political Vibe right now where whoever is basically in the driver's seat is going to have to reckon with fact that they are going to be able to make these like longer let's say more structural decisions so I think the body Administration has made a bunch of great calls lately I think the semiconductor cracked down on China was a great call I think the chip sack same topic same category was a great call there's been investments in energy climate infrastructure but none of those long-term decisions are going to result in short-term political rewards so that's just the real difficult situation the Biden admission Administration finds itself in and I have just no perception of them having a way around that right and last time we spoke soccer you mentioned that you know things that mattered to you were vaccine in your arms stimi in your pocket right that was what was going to make you happy vaccine stuff worked out pretty well stimi you know you know all the stimulus contributed to inflation along with the FED along with the supply chain issues that we've been seeing so when we think about because if this is an election that's going to be run uh based off of inflation and the economy how do we read it politically because it's not like you you know one party came in and said everything's going to cost more and the supply chain is going to blow up it's actually something that's taken you know we're in a 12-year bull market so this spans multiple presidencies um and you know it's kind of a difficult issue to read politically the FED is involved so how does how do voters look at this issue when it comes to relief and how are they going to actually act based off of their conclusions I don't think voters really look I think voters know uh as little as all of us do including the policy makers so I don't think anybody's really looking for a quote-unquote solution I would dispute for based on from what I've seen the stimulus was the major cause of inflation but I think that's probably another conversation I will accept the it's a multi-faceted question and the result of which I know politically is good for the GOP can we just put it there like yeah in terms of the in terms of the actual explanation look I mean personally I think what they're probably going to do is and this is actually gets to the cynical nature of politics which is that they could crash the economy by you know doing the debt ceiling uh not funding the government doing everything they possibly could and that aggregate chaos would still result to their benefit because Joe Biden and the president almost always gets the blame uh there were a lot of you know it's interesting to do a replay of 2012 and some of the Tea Party shutdowns during the Obama Administration there was confidence by Obama and others that the voters would blame the shutdown on the on the Republicans and in the near term they weren't necessarily wrong but the amount of chaos that that resulted in still led to a lack of institutional trust and and uh just a general Vibe of things not being correct that it probably did help in some way contribute to depressing of approval of President Obama so I'm just generally of the opinion that the more chaos there is as long as you are at the top which is Joe Biden and the party in power it's just going to be bad for you regardless of whether you're quote in the right or not because that's just not how politics works okay the it's going to play in well to some questions I have towards the end of this segment about 2024 but let's keep focused on the midterms for now yeah go ahead Marshall yeah well and just to not get too far to 2024 I do think what's interesting is now we've seen a very straightforward Playbook with the last three Democratic presidencies Bill Clinton comes in 1992. huge historic midterm losses obviously Obama 2010 you're going to have huge historic where you had huge historic midterm losses and look what the Democrats are gonna most likely have another set of huge historic midterm losses but in both of the previous two cases Republicans were not able to translate the quote-unquote chaos that helped them on the Congressional ballot into an actual presidential win so what we should really be looking at here is the the real gap between who folks are going to support for Congress and who actually is going to be top of the ticket so that's a story that someone should focus on there I want to go back to one quick thing you said Alex which is a real kind of course correction moment that folks if you listen back to our last conversation we're really prepared for on any level which is that how the inflation issue just completely wrecked the quote unquote like narrative or the overall strategy or the frame the administration wanted to have so stimis and vaccines the by Administration obviously is gonna you know have to play this carefully they couldn't just say oh like no worries covets over everyone be chill because if they did that and there was a variant that was particularly bad that would hurt them very badly with their base So the plan was let's promote vaccines let's basically try to subtly move on from the crisis and then we could then focus on our big economic wins we could focus on build back better all those different policies that plan was working until once again inflation hits and just leaves them without a big broad narrative like soccer you and I've done a lot of episodes on how a huge part of the democratic narrative going into the 2021 year was Biden is the next Joe Biden reloading the economy we're making these fundamental changes and all of those big changes and narratives run into inflation without the ability to counteract it or tell like a useful story though so that's something that really I think when people write back the history of these two years is going to be a huge part of it yeah it's pretty interesting because last time we were talking you know we were coming off what was I mean Trump was judged by a lot of things but it was largely politics seemed motivated by culture War we were you know coming off this long bull market so it became soccer I think you mentioned you called it a a you called it a cultural and affectational backlash and I said okay maybe Joe Biden is you know doesn't provoke those you know same type of uh emotions like Obama or Trump did that might have turned out to be wrong and we might end up speaking about economics in terms of like what leads politics and not culture War well we are speaking about economics just sort of played out the way that in a different way so what do you what do you guys think about that and how important is culture War still in our politics I would dispute that we are talking about economics I think it's still very much couched in the culture I mean I actually think Biden's great failure is the fact that he is unable to translate any real message into inflation which is actually if you look at the GOP messaging on on inflation it is core to the message since like the 1980s and essentially is a script I mean I think Biden's great failure was just not getting his hands around inflation in the supply chain crisis from day one of a feeling of deep apathy set in across the country which effectively in a vacuum whoever is going to give you a message and if you're the only one that one is going to win I think he had a great chance at combating this he would have had to ditch many of the quote build back better and actually you know focus on the issues at hand which were gas which were Supply which were uh many of the contributing causes to inflation but he didn't really do any of that and I remained mystified as to why it took okay let's take the Strategic petroleum reserve for example there was a case to be doing many of the spr Innovation and interventions that he's been doing today over a year and a half ago none of that was done I mean I remember that he visited the port of LA only one time and that was months into the backlog in 2021 there was no attempt to use the powers of government to actually get those things working you know I mean I remember whenever that guy Ryan Peterson the flexport CEO he arguably had more of an impact by doing a Twitter thread and renting a boat and running around and just having the what was it Long Beach mayor changed the regulations so anyway I just think that the nearly year-long obsession with quote build back better which is just social spending and had nothing to do with any of the major problems that the country was facing is really was his downfall I don't think it was possible to crawl out of that hole but it is interesting I think that's his fault that a motivating factor in this election doesn't I mean it's it's still there but but further down is Trump stopped the steel that type of stuff it's actually that's right voters though that's not really for that's not really for the general population from what I can tell Again by the way here's another uh caution nobody knows anything okay yeah all right I don't feel so bad anymore yeah well the the thing that's interesting when soccer you're articulating that story here is it's not quite clear to him so for example like gas prices like did go down it's not June 2022 anymore really the the like the the insane peak of it yet that depression in prices didn't actually translate into further economic confidence so that's not true Democratic polls went up significantly I mean look you would never be able to disaggregate this from Roe versus Wade so I don't know but anyways no so the point isn't that my point is just that I wouldn't say I'd say the real problem with the Biden folks faced is that this isn't quite a policy issue specifically so I would wager even if they did the you know strategic petroleum Reserve openings that you're talking about back in June coinciding with the price decrease I think there's just a broader narrative issue that any presidency is basically going to fall into which is that we do not broadly know how to deal or have a frame run to the issue of inflation I think the Trump presidency wouldn't have been ready for inflation hitting the way hitting the way it fit I don't think the Trump Administration would have had like a very specific articulable frame and Democrats would have done well in this circumstance too so no presidency right now has figured out how to be in the driver's seat and not be punished for being in charge with this when these when these issues happen uh I just it's just there's so many issues from the from the from the abortion issue to the post-january 6 Reckoning to the war in Ukraine for anyone to say like oh yeah if they've done this policy thing or if Biden had showed up there would have been something useful there I think let me just yeah let me let me when I say spr I'm talking about an Administration that is forward enough thinking to do that without people even being critical and I think that actually we're kind of synced up on this which is that you have to have a reframe of the entire U.S government of what it's capable and wants to do as to whether inflation was even a real priority by the way it wasn't a priority in terms of what they were doing that is actually where I would I think you and I are synced up on this which is that the real crime that they at is that they did not make people feel like they cared there is a lot to be said about you can give every speech that you want and even policy itself as you alluded to Ira nobody cares about the inflation reduction act in this election sorry doesn't matter there was a yeah go ahead okay I mean I think there was this feeling I you know asked about why this was looked over I think there was this feeling among Democrats we even talked about it here that um you know the entire 2020 election would drive you know basically a split between the Republican Party moderates might you know now start to support Democrats to you know stop this deal folks would take over the party you know it's kind of questionable what's happened there and then there was you know you mentioned you can't separate it from Roe v Wade but the the abortion issue in the U.S that it did you know cause Democrat approval ratings to to um to Skyrocket but it doesn't seem like you know if for anyone counting on those two issues to win an election it's just not happening well two things happened there so one Republicans course corrected Ultra quickly on the abortion issue and once again this is not like I'm talking like abortion is a difficult subject I'm talking purely political Blake Masters in June deletes pretty extreme abortion language from his website just instantly and other than a few random Twitter users there's zero backlash on the right like the right the pro-life side of things very quickly was like look do whatever you need to do to basically survive I think if Blake Masters had maintained basically implying that abortion should be just permanently banned even in a purple State like um even in a purple State like Arizona that would have been more of an issue with the GOP course corrects very quickly you also don't really have that many Todd Aiken like instances where you know you say oh you know legitimate rape and oh is that like they they there have been enough lessons of how not to do so they close graduate degree and then secondly when it came to the January 6 election denial issue there are a couple candidates that I feel are really really affected by this so like mastriano in in Pennsylvania I would really say that the gap between so he's running for governor um against Josh Shapiro I would say the gap between mastriano and Shapiro being as big as it is versus the fact that Federman and Osmond are pretty much tied really would come down to a candidate not being able to move Beyond just the election denial thing but in the vast majority of cases like Arizona Kerry Lake hardcore election denier and many of these races unlike in Pennsylvania voters just are not voting on that decision voters were voting on we don't like the status quo and Kerry lake has made clear she's the enemy of the status quo and I don't really care what she was up to back in January 2020. so I'm kind of interested in why mastriano wasn't able to pull and I think it's probably political Talent Carrie lake is just charismatic oh yeah yeah what do you think it's just pure your political Talent he's a [ __ ] like he's not a very good speaker she's a star she's a television personality and she genuinely believes nothing which probably makes it easier I think that mastriano is a actual stop the steel True Believer which is frankly to his detriment yeah in terms of Prosecuting that case on the election Integrity question um you know look looking at the there was also this belief that folks who doubted the Integrity of Elections would be sidelined obviously that hasn't happened do we have in in the U.S do we have a a real problem with election Integrity like can you you know seeing where we're going can you see a you know Democratic process be overridden in this country uh I would say yeah the thing I'm most scared about is a genuine constitutional crisis with a mastriano or Kerry Lake type figure where they just look the Supreme Court will give a tremendous amount of deference to States in terms of how they administer their elections so if they pre-set it up which effectively saying that the state election doesn't bind them on electors that they send to the Electoral College and to the Congress to certify there's basically no way to get around that because there's just never been an inkling before that a secretary of state or a governor who in Pennsylvania's case is responsible for appointing secretary of state would ever do such a thing but it's very possible so yeah I mean that probably worries me more than anything but as many of the center leftists who are very worried about Republican Victory and many of these other schemes have been saying they will not have to pull any of that if they just lose if the Democrats legitimately just lose the election so that's uh yeah I mean yeah that's they're not going to lose every election and that is a concern well in the swing States though right so like in Pennsylvania and in Arizona if the GOP wins which they have in the past and bid under Trump I mean Trump Fame very close then a lot of this is rendered moot but that doesn't mean that nightmare scenario isn't still a nightmare scenario and this is the framing issue that soccer where we just hinted at um in terms of how I think central life people are starting to reevaluate the election Integrity thing so obviously there's a huge elected official level election Integrity problem um you know you could just go through the list and see not only just like bad statements but like very articulated here is my plan that would obviously result in an elections doing the thing um there are all sorts of vulnerabilities within the system that I think at a technocratic level need to be attacked and focused on the mistake though that it seems to me the Biden Democrats made is they confused the let's say like the the serious like policy and literal real world implications of election Integrity issues with the actual political cases they needed to be making because it seemed to me that you should have spent your time making clear that hey like zero point soccer economy the inflation Joe Biden inherited Trump's covet economy and he's a firefighter and all he's doing for these next two years is fixing that so therefore if anything like if your house is burning and a firefighter comes you're not mad at the firefighter for there being some fire up there instead it was we're just moving on and we're dealing with this you know broad set of issues including January 6th but it really just should have been focusing the the economy at the center of it knowing that the thing that would cause what say a 2024 election nightmare would be a bad economy plus Doug mastriano as the governor of Pennsylvania right and if you don't solve the two of these together quote unquote that's actually what causes the nightmare scenario so on the bad economy uh we both parties obviously have their economic plans is there any hope that there's some good policy in there that could help fix this situation or do we just have to let it run its course I haven't seen a democratic proposal to quote fight inflation um I mean in reality they just seem to be this is the problem right which is a inflation reduction act the inflation reduction this is this well okay I mean it does have to do with inflation in the way that I guess pays takes 300 billion dollars and pays down the deficit I mean there's a technical case I didn't like that bill there was there was a lot of common sense stuff and agree with you yeah Alex I support many Provisions inside the inflation reduction act they should have called it the electric vehicles act by the way electric vehicles are very popular so I don't really know why they didn't go with that so if I tried to Hoodwink people and say that it was the IRA act and inflation reduction all that and then when people are you know people aren't stupid they could see exactly what's in it they're like this is [ __ ] and so look from what I have seen there has been no concrete proposal yet for the Democrats to quote unquote deal with inflation outside of very technocratic fixes this also presumes that quote inflation can be solved right at this level how about is actually quite simple which is to cut spending and to encourage the Federal Reserve to keep what it's doing to induce a recession and have enough demand destruction occur on top of high uh high unemployment that we solve inflation by destroying demand so which also happens to benefit the uh no I know there's that there's a there's nothing to align with their Orthodoxy and happens political I mean I would say the real crime on the bite administrations so this guy I'll never get over it it's like the entire year of 2021 and just letting so many of these problems go unfixed I mean air travel uh gas man you know that's the other thing on inflation you can break it down it's not that difficult to figure it out the vast majority of inflation that people experience in their lives is food gas and housing so those are the three that I would spend every single day uh attacking vast majority of the early inflation in 2021 was all gas so if you woke up every single day she's just been obsessed with the price of gas same with the heating oil and this is all even pre-ukraine you know yeah I mean that's why I've been studying this now for quite a long time I actually don't think it was that difficult to get a hold on but when you let something run its course for over 18 months it's very hard to put back in the bottle at this point I think demand destruction which is the federal reserve's policy is the only thing that is going to quote unquote work because I don't think any PL I don't think either party really has a political incentive to do exactly what I'm talking about given the way things are right now and I think that's a sad story for for American for the American economy to be honest right I think judging just big tax earnings last week you know that's that fed plan seems to be working well sorry Amazon my gosh yeah no it's just I think so I think soccer you're getting to the end well this is what we're kind of focused on in Breaking points in the realignment kind of like this story of the parties just switching off um party comes in wins the presidency they get destroyed in the midterms the underlying political problem right now is I don't think either party has an accurate diagnosis of the set of pro the set of like deeper structural problems facing the country right now and therefore isn't able quote unquote to like focus in on addressing the problems of let's say like 2025 now um this is why you know you don't you don't want to sound partisan because look like it's not as if like the Trump Administration um was crushing propping America's Supply chains in 2017-2019. so I kind of think of this honestly depressing political decade as this example of tossing power back and forth short-term attempts to fix long-term problems that basically aren't going to work and that's going to have to basically continue on until something structurally changes but I think this gets to I think the point for optimism where I think the place where the Biden Administration has just been at its best has been semiconductor policy especially relating to China um that's an example of a a long-term structural issue you can't just snap your fingers and like reduce dependency on Taiwan you can't just snap your fingers and have a bunch of new Fabs built in Arizona this requires thinking along a 10-year time frame and they've been able to do that they've been able to do it like very effectively this is a completely bipartisan lots of support for this policy and I think a real question to ask is how or why weren't they able to translate that type of approach to other sets of structural issues in the same fashion because there's just so much of a focusing that happens via let's say like China and competition there the actually can get around that unhelpful Dynamic so that's something I'm really interested in like learning more about do you have any thoughts on the answer to your question I don't think it's that difficult there's a bipartisan consensus that's it it's one of the few areas of those genuine bipartisan consensus which you have to give the Trump Administration credit they set the rhetorical grounds for that and effectively won the intellectual battle and there were a lot of people in Washington who worked very very hard in order to bring that type of legislation and initiative to the fore on a bipartisan basis they're people who all work behind the scenes Republican and Democratic administrations to me it actually just proves the fact that if you could win the quote argument with the establishment then you're fine they said policy but if you're on the other side uh then I think it's a crap shoot right the other the other answer too is just politically speaking it's very clear that Biden Folks at the National Security Council and like members of Congress are like oh it's it's a very good it's simple it's oh the U.S is hyper dependent on Taiwanese microchips there is more likely than not going to be some type of conflict um either with between the United States and China over Taiwan between Taiwan and China which would devastate microchips it would devastate production shortages like really disruptive way of life so they are so focused in on how simple this is that the solution was once again there's debated debate about how effective the chip tax is but it's like okay hey like let's make sure we increase the availability of domestic ships and then B let's not let China benefit from our like know-how technology Talent Etc I think what you needed to have happen I think this is where like I'm a pretty consistent critic of pre-bootage edge I think Buddha judge should have said to himself my only job right now as Secretary of Transportation a position that people basically usually don't care about is I am the guy who needs to make sure that America's Supply chains are treated the same way as a semiconductor issue and I think the ability to translate that straightforward focus into something real could have been really exciting instead of just playing defense um obviously secretary Buddha judge is very engaged on the like Airlines issue but that's after the fact it's defensive it's oh now I'm calling up Airlines now I'm flying coach it's just really it's just kind of shocking to me because it seems to me that it's just such an obvious apparent narrative issue that the inability to translate that into something in any other issue balsamic conductors is is kind of shocking yeah I want to talk about one more International issue before we move on to some predictions and then take a break and talk text so underlying a lot of this even though inflation started before the Ukraine situation the war in Ukraine um that didn't help right energy costs are way up I spent a lot of time in Europe over the past year and it's a real crisis in places like Germany so there's been this interesting back and forth in the U.S Congress where like there's there's been some rubblings of trying to um get the ukrainians to to say okay we've we've held our ground let's just find some compromise and and be done with this war um but that's become somewhat politically complicated there was that letter from um the progressives that ended up they ended up retracting and blaming their staff on which was an interesting move um where where does the U.S support for the war on Ukraine stand um and sorry support for the ukrainians in the war in in Ukraine stand does that change with the uh with the election and and how you know could a peaceful resolution uh change our situation here in the U.S uh yeah it's it's it's it's interesting because so much of this I tend to think of like the war in Ukraine in like three-month inclement increments so for example like let's go back to June July August ukrainians are talking about how there's going to be this counter-offensive something's happening something's gonna happen there's lots of excitement then nothing happens the whole time obviously you're having like a brutal brutal brutal War um in the donbass like lots lots lots of like incredible like we High Ukrainian casualties like the Washington Post had some very very depressing reading on this from my perspective if the ukrainians had not been able to convert that summer real like I'm trying to find the right word for this but if they had not been able to convert just like the death and destruction of the summer into that September offensive the Ukraine Aid debate will be entirely different because now the problem is if you're looking back to like May and June I know you have a lot of listeners probably listen to like David sacks kind of the problem with like the David sacks position is David sacks was basically saying hey like we need to force the ukrainians to the table back in May and June because this is just a stalemate people were dying they're dying for nothing if the ukrainians had come to the table in June they wouldn't have taken back what they took back over the past two or three months there wouldn't be talk of taking back cursing so my genuine take on this issue is you are not going to see actual Ukrainian willingness to concede until they've actually reached the limits of what they could actually move and the key thing is like right now isw Institute for study of War they've done some good analysis and Reporting they've basically concluded that the Russians are not going to be able to launch major offensives going into 2023. so if you're a Ukrainian in that context why would you possibly make concessions quote unquote when you're on the offensive my real beef with folks who are on the get the ukrainians to the table position is that they pretty con and soccer is not one of these people it's not like you know trying to like pre-dunk or anything but there's just been this pretty consistent unwillingness to think at a strategic level why would that make any sense you don't go to the table when you could get an additional mile of territory um so that's the overall friends I'm thinking about and as long as the ukrainians are able to do that I think the aid packages are going to be pretty straightforward and continue there's still broad support for the policy Vladimir Putin doesn't mean he issued huge another state when he was like what are you talking about like we were never gonna launch nukes like that's crazy um so I just I think there's a there's just like a weird a weird dynamic here but it's only going to change if the ukrainians start losing yeah there's that feeling it's a strong how uh no if I'm weak how can I compromise and if I'm strong why should I so yeah well sorry which is that usaid belies all Ukrainian strength Ukraine does not exist without the United States in fact current Ukrainian maximalist aims are not the aims of the United States nor should they be zelenski said yesterday that Ukraine wants to quote liberate Crimea it's not a USA because that's a red line for Russia so that would actually lead to a very high likelihood of a U.S entrance to that war or the very likely some sort of escalation and this is where I just completely disagree which is that all Ukrainian victories policy Choice by the United States and to what and where that line should be and how they negotiate actually is entirely up to us given the fact that we backstop their entire U.S military their ISR everything so the entire Ukraine first like Ukraine limits what if it turns out that their limit is the red line across the Russians and then we enter into a war that's not in the interests of the us and this is why I just reject entirely Ukraine first approach by the way I know I'm going to get a lot of haters for this one awesome don't care um and look I mean I know it's unpopular to say well it's unpopular in Elite circles to say broadly the US public generally says that we've given quite enough Aid to Ukraine we don't need any more Aid to Ukraine you know if you look at much of the a that is still being considered for Ukraine they're considering an additional 50 billion in U.S dollars in the next Democratic Administration and again like there's no limiting Principle as to what this Aid is going to be put towards except for the president of the United States and look Joe Biden is old he could drop dead tomorrow and we could have an entirely new policy under the vice president so I'll stick up for David Sachs which is that I'm not entirely sure that the limits of Ukrainian military potential line up with the interests of the United States at all and considering the fact that we've literally backstopped their entire military their government does not exist like this is the thing I want people to actually grapple with Ukraine is a polity does not exist without the United States if tomorrow we cut off our aid from them they would literally collapse in terms of their economy their bonds their budgets everything is American so I just think we have a hell of a lot more of a say in this than people like to think and I think that people should be honest that their most Maximus AIMS in Ukraine are actually the opposite of major U.S interests and that's something that I just get so frustrated does with the debate yeah yeah go ahead the quick thing in response to that though is the debate right in terms of so look zielinski says a lot of things not going to use nukes he might no but the key thing is though tactically and strategically on the ground the debate right now is not do the ukrainians overrun Crimea right now that's a good Bomb crime yeah okay but once again though the question isn't do they overrun but we're just talking white tactical because you're saying they could like invade Crimea and that's like the red line the actual debate that's happening right now is are the ukrainians going to be able to take that cursive like that's the actual fight that's happening on the ground now so obviously if the body administration were in a position where we're saying to ourselves holy crap they've routed the Russians everywhere except Crimea they've completely taken them back to the February actually even before February 2022 status quo do we need to force them to the table that is a different conversation than right now and all I was trying to say with my beef with they need to concede in May and June and July was if they made concessions then they would have not have taken back hundreds of miles of territory that they took back and the only reason why and one one other thing in response I know Alex like you need to get in here this is your show I shouldn't hijack it but I think push that guys hijacked this thing so go forward my pushback here is like no one the vast majority of people are not going to say to themselves we're just cutting off Ukraine that is just so outside the bounds that a the vast majority of policy makers hold and frankly the vast majority of the American right the vast majority of the American people support like the current policy no that's not true but it's true that is true the vast majority of the American people quote support Ukraine they have no idea what the current policy is and that's actually what I my entire you can't prove this is this is why the debate gets unfair because now I want to understand yeah now I want to ask does this change if you know if and when the Republicans take the house it's possible but not really so Kevin McCarthy has said that Kevin McCarthy said that he won't pass anymore a to Ukraine in my opinion he will absolutely fall to the blob and we'll 100 do that Mitch McConnell said that that's not true I want to be clear that everything I'm saying is an absolute minority position in Washington and then my view has absolutely zero power in the U.S uh political system so let me just absolutely put that on the table including in the establishment so that's 100 clear now on Ukraine and Ukraine itself like I said the numbers say that people are like we've done enough in terms of the money uh bipartisan split Republicans are much more likely to say that we've gotten actually too much to Ukraine Democrats it's actually polarizing right along cultural lines but by and large I'm not even saying cut off Ukraine what I'm saying is acknowledge that we are 100 in the driver's seat John Kirby the U.S national security adviser spokesperson the Biden Administration continues to say Ukraine first only zielinski gets to decide when we negotiate and my pushback against what you're saying Marshall is how do you know that you're going to have the ability to tell Ukraine to stop at that things on the battlefield move very quickly they're offensive the majority of the land that they took back happened in 48 hours that's not far enough in order to prevent a major Global conflagration so this gets to My overall meta political meta geopolitical critique which is that people are very willing to gamble with the future of the United States in a potential war with Russia over several hundred square miles in Ukraine and I'm just very comfortable saying that I am not willing to take that gamble I would absolutely bet and I have dreams of political polling to show this the vast majority of Americans do not want to be put in that situation they do not want to have any sort of major confrontation with Russia all the no-fly zone polling put that and that's why I would say Marshall that why I'm feel comfortable saying people quote support Ukraine but don't wouldn't support the current policy is if the Biden Administration and the president who has said that we have quote nuclear Armageddon as a possibility were to I genuinely understand that people would say well what the [ __ ] are you gonna can I curse sorry yeah yeah people are going to say what are you going to do to prevent that from happening and I think there's a reason that the president and the administration don't want us to have that conversation the more that people know there would be a hell of a lot more questioning about this well let's move on to some some predictions um and by the way I think that Ukraine could end up be being left in a pretty good position it's won back a lot of territories so it is in that position what does that mean what does that mean a good position I mean it could look I think that there was a oh God well here I'm opening Pandora's Box again but it's one back position for who yeah right for Ukraine I mean right now if it says okay and the U.S because Russia obviously is framing itself as our enemy the U.S it's a good position for Ukraine it's good position for the US it's a good position for NATO like Vladimir Putin is explicitly arguing this is a war against us a word so why should we fulfill that we don't want to have a war with Russia we're not that's why we don't have enough fly zone that's why there are no boots on the ground yeah but the Biden policy is working like that's that's what's crazy this is where I just did we know like Adam kinsiger book if Adam kinziger is president of the United States and he's making the call to send f-16s to create civilian corridors that could start like a [ __ ] sorry a war between the US and Russia you guys are bossy but like the person you're on a very professional podcast Alex we're we're reticent but the underlying thing here is the Biden policy has worked Putin consistently has figured out that the vulnerability in the American political discourse is him making fake claims about nuclear weapons and then the second that anyone calls him on he says whoa whoa whoa whoa what are you what are you talking about the the Russian ambassador to the United Kingdom is like whoa look what are you talking about it's fake it's not real obviously I think you should just factor that in but we have to gamble with millions of lives you know what it is no can't no so that's soccer okay yeah we're moving on the definition of gambling was the no-fly zone that was a literal gamble the gamble would be if we save us no fly zone the US would be in a position where it would have to shoot down a Russian aircraft we think that they wouldn't actually use a nuke because they did it so we're gonna do it anyways there has been no equivalent of that Gamble and that's the key thing okay I will say for my final word which is that saying that the quote-unquote policy has worked in a conflict which is going to drag on for years is like saying X policy has worked in 1939 nine months after Hitler invaded X policy worked after the beginning of World you could make a very credible case for the first world war in the first nine months you could make a very credible case on the other side we'll find out I see many pitfalls and I don't see anybody raising any of the questions that I think should have been raised in many of those conflicts I hope you guys are right the consequences are very wrong if you are and I care more about the consequences than I do about any of the quote unquote potential success on the battlefield I just can't be willing to bet I would be willing to bet in the long run most people will agree with me I just want to state that for the record that my position is that they are either at the point or close to the point where it's time to come to the table and and find a way to end this oh I I disagree with that completely Alex but wait you wait you don't want I won't move on to the tech part do you think there's going to be a negotiation tomorrow okay anyway let's let's move on yeah yeah okay um predictions so let's just go through some quick predictions um first of all where do you guys think the midterms are gonna net out what is that what do you think the results are going to be this is gonna be a point of agreement we've just did a disagreements soccer team yeah own this time you're the political analyst Red Wave 53 seats in the senate for Republicans I think they sweep and win every single contestable one including the Nevada he speaks to me on this topic by the way I don't I'm not saying it's a good thing I'm just telling you based on look I believe in fundamentals economy is terrible inflation is high crime is high priority and power always loses combine all those three it's not difficult all polls are moving in that direction reams of political science data tell us that people don't care about elections until three weeks out that's right now which is why the polls now actually matter a lot more than the polls two months ago voter activity uh and all of that even in the individual level for many of these races everything seems to be converging in that direction again right it's possible I mean I should I should tell people like it's actually very possible that we could have uh Redux of the 2020 election whenever you have uh whenever you have the runoff in Georgia be the deciding factor in Georgia you have to go over 50 in order to win the election out right not possible currently that Herschel Walker may do that and actually a runoff you know the political climate could change in January we don't know necessarily but for that to matter it would mean that Mark Kelly hangs onto a seat in Arizona that Dr Oz doesn't win in Pennsylvania that you know Nevada doesn't go to I think his name is Adam laxalt anyway so it's complicated it's possible that polling Miss goes in the other direction but if you look at the Miss from 2020 and 2016 of which I am you know I am liable to do given the way that polls have been wrong whenever Republicans have been on the ballot and underestimated I don't think it's a that's difficult of a story and here's the follow-up what does the US look like for the next two years after this red wave oh t uh tea party 2010 to 2012 is a pretty good uh pretty good analogy all right disagreement though the key thing though and this is what's so fascinating tea party 2010 to 2012 is establishment GOP right this is Insurgent GOP that isn't true now because and a DeSantis was Trump race would kind of maybe push on this pressure point but what the GOP establishment has really managed to do over like the 2010s period And this is you know there have been some moral concessions that made this possible the GOP establishment has fully been able to subsume many if not most of those like internal debates so like in 2010 and 2012 it's like all these primaries and all these establishment figures are getting knocked out like Eric Cantor was going to be speaker of the house and in 2014 he's like knocked out that's over because the only question that really matters for the GOP for the next two years is do you support Trump yay or nay vast majority of Republican electeds like obviously do support Trump despite the talk of DeSantis and B even if there was like a point of like battle quote unquote you have one presidential debate where Trump's Max DeSantis which I think he would that's over very very very quickly so there's no like big existential debate about like the the direction of the party are we defunding Obamacare again that's the real difference between those two periods I don't disagree I what I'm more meant is just chaos which is that General functions of General functions of government are not going to work like the government will not get funded on time there will be debt ceiling crises there will be like hold UPS of if a supreme court position you know somebody dies it's definitely not going to get filled so just get ready for that yeah I meant like obstruction on a very basic legislative level that's what the next two years ago and at a moment where our economy is already teetering that that sounds bad um okay next question for you guys is uh are they going to impeach Biden uh no I don't think so there's gonna be there'll be there's gonna be like there's gonna be some some like talk of it but the problem it's Uncle Joe it's Joe Biden it's like remember Alex at the start of the episode you're talking about Joe Biden it's a little harder to do the boogeyman stuff Joe Biden culture War specifically yeah I really just think it also hasn't been like a scam there's not been a Joe Biden scandal and also no one cares about Hunter like I'll say like let me put this no people Hunter Biden is a terrible look people like kind of like don't like Hunter Biden that said it's like wow the president has this super screwed up kid who needs to work with things there's just like no there's no equivalent um of I think those Obama era or Trump era scandals I'm trying to think it's possible that they would impeach him just because remember everybody that the technical definition of impeachment is just that it has to pass the House of Representatives I actually could see that happening uh would there be a trial in the U.S Senate an eventual conviction no I don't think so so is that you know does that square it yeah it's okay and last one is uh before we go to break is is Trump running again in 24 and is he going to win uh yes to run when if he doesn't get indicted I think he'll probably win Marshall the thing that's weird for me Trump is going to run Trump easily wins the primary I'm I'm in this weird position where I think this is why it's weird if you're like a pro-trump person Trump is the Republican who could lose to Biden just yeah he's the only one he's that's that's the very content so like he easily beats DeSantis but like that said I think Trump just provokes such a visceral the hatred that Trump evokes in in Centrist to Independent to many left voters is just enough that I see him being able to pull it out for about it that's the weirdest but and then that's like the best that's the weird contradiction here um I would not want to be uh oh and this is and this is also why DeSantis can't win the primary DeSantis can't actually make that argument right the most obvious argument for DeSantis to make is guys are we really during the most layup election opportunity of all time Joe Biden is going to be like 81 years old we're really going to re-nominate Donald Trump who everyone hates he can't actually hey he's not brave enough to say it he's not bold enough to say it but that would also activate the the hatred that people in the gop's base heal for people who don't cyber Trump so like DeSantis I do not see a political way but DeSantis gets out of that Dynamic okay let's take a break we come back right back after this talk a little bit about tech we have Marshall kosov and Sagar and Jetty here from the realignment by the way do you guys have how much time do you guys have left I was gonna say I'm on a bit of a crunch yeah I got like 15 minutes Mark Okay Marshall what about you yeah that's that's all right let's do 15. okay if is that okay perfect perfect yeah okay all right go ahead and we're back here on big technology podcast with Sagar and Jetty from and Marshall casla from the realignment uh you might also see them on YouTube at breaking points um my favorite some of my favorite stuff I recommend you go check it out uh both in your podcast app of choice and on YouTube uh we got 15 minutes left why don't we hit some tech topics um first of all Twitter so Elon did it um it's been a couple days not by choice it looks like yes do we do we no longer hear the complaint about um how social media censors conservatives now that Elon is running Twitter that was a good take um I think you tweeted this yeah this is this is a good topic from you because also you may have soccer I'm sure you've noticed this in the discourse like social media censorship is a very like 2019 era issue it's just not even like separate from just like Twitter separate from Japan there's a reason I chose social has just not blown up I think we are just in this weird moment where the broad electorate is moving past that set of issues in both directions so like talking about I think one of Obama's like worst political calls was like literally like right before the inflation issue blowing up doing that big conference on disinformation and misinformation not in the sense that they aren't real issues but in the sense that you would just clearly look at the space right now these are not going to be the animating issues uh of for the electorate I think that's actually true in both cases and what about elon's ties with with China we're already seeing uh you know members of the uh you know I called Chinese propaganda machine you know telling Elon to please take their labels off um is that you know him running uh Twitter is that is that some sort of liability there it's a huge concern I've talked I did a whole monologue on it uh Tesla and about the amount of Interest here's the issue the vast majority of his wealth is where Tesla stock well Tesla they made a huge bet on the CCP on their supply chains so look I have no idea which is this is always the issue with Elon when is he serious when is he not when is he actually committed to free speech when isn't he is he gonna buy Twitter is he not is Twitter really going to change that much my honest answer is no I really don't think so so in on the Chinese thing I just think it would be so insane for him to remove those labels that he I don't think that he would do that am I concerned on other areas if they're like hey please ban this xinjiang activists in Singapore or something like that that is where I think we should really watch and see but again you know the backlash to him doing so in the U.S would be so immense that he's kind of squeezed on all sides I just want to reiterate this is why Bob Iger did not buy Twitter and I think he made one of the great calls of all time and he's like you know what I don't want to deal with this [ __ ] and he was right yeah and the key thing to add to what Sandra Ruiz said to is regardless of whether Ian Bremner was right or or Elon Musk right I hope the lesson that Elon has learned the past month is it this geopolitical stuff quote unquote to be super non-technical is so perilous do not touch it like this is like the genuine Elon like do not offer peace plans for Taiwan um good luck with that advice just yeah like but but this is this is the but here's the thing though this is getting so perilous I think he's actually gonna have to take the advice um like that I think I think I think that's the key thing um look our show the realignment like breaking points our whole show is about how our shows are about the fact that the world is changing in the world of 2023 2024 where there is open Talk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the freelancing it's 2010s we're having a good time Vibe doesn't genuinely like it's not sustainable anymore um so it's not going to really matter um if those mistakes keep getting made let's talk uh speaking of China let's talk about Tick Tock um it's interesting in the Trump Administration there was talk that uh you know Tick Tock would be bad didn't happen we actually talked about in our last show if anything it seems like there's more interest in in Banning Tick Tock where does that go I don't know I don't think the biod administration is the balls to ban it I really just don't I mean everything that I've seen uh you know they did the Huawei thing that's cute everybody knows Huawei is a Chinese spy operation I just don't think that they are willing to sacrifice the eventual backlash amongst the young voters they had a bunch of tick tock Stars at the White House just yesterday on an administrative case everybody knows it should be banned we've got reams of evidence at this point it's a huge knock against Trump that he was such a [ __ ] that he wasn't even able to do it in the first place but I do not see a world right now where the Biden Administration is able to do it given the backlash that they would receive amongst younger voters of whom they are already uh whom they're already suffering it's possible I just don't see it I think the interesting fact they'll add to your point Sager is that if you're talking about 2022 to 2024 as being a period of chaos I do see there as being a ward we're just looking for a like consensus bod broad bipartisan win at my perspective Tick Tock gets banned it's like in mid-2023. voters are disengaged right the election isn't happening um you you just you you and also we're saying the word band but there's a variety of other things too there's this yeah there's the for sale and it's it's generally genuinely like a flabbergasting because also if there is any conference Taiwan it's going to happen anyway for me the question isn't like is there going to be some form of tick tock spin out disinvestiture then it's going to happen at some point um the unwillingness to pull the pin despite the awkwardness is is deeply frustrating because I want to use tick tock I don't use I don't use tick tock um if someone had a I mean Alex I'm curious what you think of it someone had a funny take on Twitter where they're like hey look there's a world where like you know spinning it out it's like a value creation opportunity uh there are like huge limits on like people who could use tick tock how it could be used Tick Tock how you could use it like the uncertainty about like the actual white policy space that can make it so like a more a safer Tick Tock quote unquote um would actually create a lot more value so that's that's frustrating for me yeah I mean the question is if you do spin it out do you then divorce it from The Innovation taking place to buy dance which has led to it right this is Facebook is trying hard to catch up with Tick Tock it can't um so I I think that um it's difficult to just say let's take it as it is today and spin it out and it will remain competitive what do you guys think about um I love talking to you guys about web3 I feel like every time we check in with each other there's you know a different perspective what is web3 is this actually hype now um you know I've been uh getting all these pitches in my inbox from web3 companies and I feel like they're like using the last bits of their funding to try to you know build that class you know can we get that last bit of hype before we die um what do you guys think ask Marshall Marshall go ahead Marshall I'm trying not to be too mean because like because this is okay quick quick side I said this to biology screen of Boston once biology was you know bringing up like remember in 2000 when that business week analyst said that Amazon was just killed that shows how bad the tech press could be when it comes to like getting these things wrong but I think everyone who talks about tech now has the image of that cover in our head so none of us want to actually go and do that newspaper they're done owned like no no one's actually so ever I just it's just very funny like this idea that mental Frameworks actually shift how people do it like so to not be the Amazon business analyst I think web3 look I never bought any white crypto seriously I was interested in web 3. I think there was a narrative idea that really mattered to people this idea that the internet status quo was not working no one is happy with where web2 ended up quote unquote all the social media platforms are really having trouble right now for some you know Twitter power users aren't tweeting as much anymore right it's queer that something is ending and something new is beginning if web3 Founders and Builders focus in on let's build the next thing rather than the skewed Financial incentives of basically 2020 to 2022 that's what I'm basically excited about because there's just like a real openness to something real but there needs to be more focus on the something real because I I did a lot of web3 tech interviews and I genuinely would not know what people were talking about like I do I host this podcast about the deep end I went on Deck Alex has been on I'd interview these web three founders and I genuinely would be like am I missing something yeah I'm just sort of like I don't know like people say things like oh you know we were promised this internet but they lied to us I'm like I don't know like does an average consumer like feel that way right so people it's on it's on the illness for people to prove they're real right now so yeah I feel the same I mean I think a lot of the hype was cringe I think a lot of the people who were pushing it really be clowned themselves that being said like I'm not gonna I don't want to dismiss the technology for that reason I'm not a technologist I don't know there were a lot of promises but there were also a lot of promises around the way the web would evolve from 1999. everybody was wrong but they were also right that the web did change everything so I you know look I'm just waiting I'm waiting to see proof in the pudding uh I would be I would like to see a change to the modern internet but I would really counter to a lot of the web 3 folks which is that it turns out that one of the most significant developments in web 2 was just Elon buying Twitter what if Elon is able to restore the wild west feeling of the web on Twitter which is an ad supported platform which is centrally controlled that kind of you know it's kind of a case against some of the use case right I'm going to be interested to see if that happens and if that's possible you know I've heard a lot of hype around the blockchain and all that other stuff but again you know look it's possible okay the whole web1.com thing laid all the fiber optics and made web 2 possible you know so it's who knows who knows what's gonna happen let's hit metaverse before we leave Zuckerberg seems intent to build this metaverse even if it turns Facebook into a company whose valuation is less than annual revenue I mean I'm being a little facetious here but Facebook's been absolutely hammered due to its commitment to this metaverse idea you guys can answer quickly do you think that this metaverse thing is going to happen I struggle with this one you know why but all recent history tells us you should never bet against suck um like he was right about Instagram he was right about mobile he was right about the news feed you know yeah like he was right against every single big call in the history of Facebook that said I don't get this one um like the world is just not signing up to attend virtual conferences they're just not I haven't used an Oculus yet see this is where I'm just torn I'm like man I don't know I shouldn't bet against the guy I'm like should I buy one but I'm like I don't need one I actually there's literally nothing that I could do with it that I want or need to do and then like there's something about that key has not yet been switched with the technology I don't know I'm curious what do you think Alex I mean you might know more than I do oh it's really tough I mean I think that we're definitely going to see some Enterprise uses for it we might see you know some uh training education you can see it in museums all that stuff makes sense right but when it comes to like us all hanging out and some metaverse I just don't see the case for it so yeah all right well my quick my quick thing on this is yeah uh my back soccer can you see him no I can't I Can See Marshall but it says you're offline it says I'm offline no it says Marshall's offline wow this is strange it's just like six cent stuff um odd Marshall is here Marshall do you want to just refresh and maybe we can yeah why don't you just refresh your page weird yeah I've never seen that happen before he's back hmm let me I completely agree so uh Alex sell or buy meta down 20 right now geez I'm thinking about buying it to be honest yeah advice not Financial advice um I I would probably I would buy it I don't trust the guy I mean look I'm putting aside my content you know anything I'm just like look from a business perspective yeah one of the Best Bets in the world you could do is give Mark Zuckerberg your money in the year 2000 also you're right you're so if you buy meta today you make two bets right you sort of get two bets for for one dollar right one is metaverse works out you're in great shape two is Mark Zuckerberg says metaverse isn't gonna work and then the stock shoots up we're gonna double evaluation so so it's good the only way you actually lose that money is if Zuckerberg says we're gonna put more money into the metaverse which he did say on the most recent earnings call so sorry to all the investors that hold it Marshall soccer thank you so much for joining really great to catch up with you guys hey good to see you man it's good talking yeah super fun um you can check out Marshall and Sagar on the realignment available in your podcast app of choice one of my go-to podcasts also check out breaking points on YouTube realignments also on YouTube all the places go check it out uh thanks everybody for listening thank you Nick guatney for doing the audio thank you LinkedIn for having me as part of your podcast Network we'll be back on Wednesday with another show um thank you for being here for the past couple ones we've done uh you know Tech strategy we've done Tech Finance now the bigger world the broader world so we're covering all bases all right we'll see you next time on big technology podcast