Nate Silver: Replacing Biden Helped Democrats Increase Their 2024 Election Win Probability

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2024-07-23

YouTube video id: O3e0yl_0OtE

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3e0yl_0OtE

we're here with Nate silver Nate did the
Democrats just increase their odds of
winning the 2024 presidential election
by having Joe Biden leave the race I
think so although Joe Biden would insist
it was his own decision it's clear there
was a lot of pressure from Nancy Pelosi
and others um yeah I think they improved
their chances probably still to below
50% um but in our model Biden's chances
had fallen to around
25% and I think it's optimistic cuz that
reflected the status quo and not the
fact that like his fundraising was down
50% or more he was incapable of
campaigning in a normal way without
risking things becoming a big you know
senior moment social media
disaster half his party had dis endorsed
him so I I think they um they would have
been better off if they had made the
change earlier um but they acted fairly
rationally at the end of the day they
Consolidated very quickly around kaml
Harris why do you think that is and do
you think that was a move that increased
their odds of winning in
November if it were me in the perfect
world I might have had more of an open
audition process but look I think they
didn't want to get stuck in between two
worlds where if it's going to be Kamala
um and she's the most obvious choice
she's the vice president she was
endorsed by Biden um she has buyin from
lots of different groups in the
Democratic party you might as well do it
fast and not have cormin naations about
it so you often have these like dual
equilibria where like you should either
go all in One Direction or another so
I'm not sure they should have picked
Kamala but given that they did I think
they did a good job of of not having a
protracted fight over it and look if you
are Biden and you and you name her as
your VP then to some extent look I I'm I
think it's good that you live with the
consequences of your actions I think by
the way she is a smart and capable
person um so I don't worry about that
but I think she you know she was not
necessarily chosen to be the most
compelling candidate in a swing state
but Trump is flawed candidate too she'll
certainly generate a lot of enthusiasm
there are record numbers of donations
coming in and things like that I think
she's improved as a candidate from from
2020 so I think she's probably an
underdog if you look at the polling for
now um but it was a a as we would call
in poker like a a EV expected value
increasing decision now people have been
saying Joe Biden should have stepped
down a long time ago but I'm curious if
a shorter election uh time frame
campaign time frame for com will
actually work in her favor because
she'll basically be able to ride this
like post Biden enthusiasm right into
November as opposed to being part of a
long drawn out campaign where the attack
ads build up there are Arguments for
that um that the GOP reportedly in Trump
um mistakenly thought that Democrats are
a cult of personality in the same way
that Republicans are and Democrats might
have some cult of personality around
Clinton or Obama Bill Clinton I should
say right but Biden's like not a cult a
personality guy he's an instrument of
the party when he was no longer useful
to the party then then there was every
lever pulled to kind of have him step
aside and so yeah the Trump campaign is
caught off guard um I think she'll raise
already has raised like a lot of money
in the short term it's a little bit of a
sports analogy thing I think there's
something to the fact that like um when
expectations are lower she's stepping in
kind of as a last minute replacement if
you go to a Broadway show right and the
role of person X will be filled by actor
Y tonight unexpectedly the expectations
are lower sometimes it can be a little
bit looser um and so I think there's
something to be said for that for sure
your plls guy after Trump's
assassination or assassination attempt
there was a concept that he was just
going to rise in the polls to the point
where like that might have been the
compelling event where he got such a
boost from the polling post
assassination attempt that that was the
event that forced
Biden out of the race what do you think
about that idea I mean clearly the polls
were getting worse and worse the
precipitating event allegedly for why he
left the race were that his campaign
finally did one more kind of series of
swing state polls which they've been
reluctant to do for some reason and
showed him to Biden and Biden's like
there's no path to to Victory here I
mean look politics works in mysterious
ways it sometimes has felt like a little
bit like we're in some crazy simulation
with all the things that have been h i
mean look I mean think about like the
the 2000 election 2008 2016 2020 and
2024 are all kind of insane elections
Alex and so you know you do start to you
do start to wonder a little bit if like
this is some reality TV show that people
are having a little bit too much fun
with it feels like episode 10 and 11
have been nuts and who knows what the
series finale is going to hold who knows
for sure all right we're here uh talking
about your book on the edge which is
coming out in August you're going to be
on big technology podcast in a couple of
weeks and can't wait for people to
listen to it cool thank you look forward
to that thank you Nate