Gruber Slams Apple's Siri Failure, Tech Stocks In Freefall, Vibecoding & OpenAI's Agents

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2025-03-14

YouTube video id: IHgP-kYfAvw

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHgP-kYfAvw

The Fallout from Apple's AI Fiasco
continues as Top Apple Watcher John
Gruber slams the company's credibility
or lack thereof meanwhile the S&P 500 is
in correction territory as tech stocks
get slammed will it mean the end of AI
funding and open aai opens up its agents
API plus plenty more AI news that's
coming up right after this welcome to
Big technology podcast Friday edition
where we break down the news in our
traditional cool-headed and nuanced
format Ronan Roy is off today joining us
uh is the returning champ Reed alati the
technology editor at semor for a
fascinating week of news and we are just
going to go right through it from grber
slamming Apple to the tech stock
disaster along with the rest of the
market actually and then a ton of AI
news at the end including open AI
opening up and agents API Reed great to
see you again welcome to the show thanks
for having me on I was not aware I was
the champ of something I'm uh you're
definitely the champ excited we always
love having you on I feel like we always
have you on in the middle of like a
chaos Newsweek and this week is no
different last week we were talking at
the beginning of the show just about how
uh Siri's become an embarrassment for
apple and the narrative is starting to
shift around that company now John grber
was partially part of that and we
definitely cited his reporting last week
but he stepped ahead of this apple
backlash in a big way this week and so
we're going to get to the rest of the AI
news in a moment and the rest of the
tech news in a moment but we would be
remissed if we didn't start the show
with
gruber's scathing take on what's
happening at Apple so he has a post it's
uh called something is rotten in the
state of Cooper Tino by the way play on
R something is rotten at Apple last week
but anyway I'll let him take the credit
um he says
the we got him we got him going let's
get to the core of this issue yeah I
think we should just slice it you know
carve carve it up I don't want to see
any of the answers before I read the
question grber says in the two decades
I've been in this racket I've never been
angry at myself for missing a story than
I am at about Apple's announcement on
Friday that the more personalized Siri
features of Apple intelligence scheduled
to appear between now and WWDC would be
delayed until the coming year I should
have my head example head examined guber
says the personalized features shown at
WWDC were vaporware they were features
that apple set existed which they
claimed would be shipping in the next
year and which they portrayed to great
effect in the signature Siri where's my
mom's flight landing segment of the WWDC
keynote itself Apple was unwilling or
unable to demonstrate those features and
actioned back in June even with Apple
product marketing reps performing the
demos from a prepared script this
shouldn't have just raised concern in my
head it should have set off blinding red
flashing lights and deafening claxon
alarms
what Apple showed regarding this
upcoming personalized Seri at WWDC was
not a demo it was a concept video
concept videos are [ __ ] a sign of a
company in disarray if not crisis let's
just put out there Gruber has never uh
talked this way about Apple before to my
recollection so to continue on our um on
our line of question here is this is
Apple intelligence Just One Bad Apple or
is it indicative like Gruber is saying
of a company in disarray and not crisis
and then what do you make of the
magnitude
of I would say the number one apple
Watcher and perhaps fan coming out
against the company yeah he's really
picking on the Apple um I think it's um
I think it's it is really remarkable
because I mean Gruber has been you know
the ultimate Apple Fanboy over the years
um and and apple loves him I mean I I
think you know him doing this it's
almost it almost seems to me like a like
a spell has been lifted he sounds like
somebody who's been under a spell I
think probably for many many years and
is now sort of waking up to reality
because it's not like this is you know
something brand new it's not like this
is a huge turn of events right this has
been a gradual thing that's been going
on for for many years as the company has
sort of scaled back on Innovation really
leaned on the fact that it's it's wal
Garden some might call it a a monopoly
um and it really I think used that
marketing power that Goodwill that it's
had you know since the days of Steve
jobs here to kind of show that hey we're
not actually behind on AI and of course
they are behind on AI and you know
that's just the reality and I think when
you when you come out and you sort of
and you make all these promises I mean
it's bound to come back and bite you and
I think that was that was obvious to
anyone who was not under the Apple spell
I think immediately when they you know
when they did that Big Marketing show a
year ago uh so you know it's just
fascinating to see the world's biggest
apple Fanboy turn on the company yeah
like I think kruber has uh been willing
to be critical of Apple in spots
appropriately so he's he came on the
show last year to do an apple super
episode I think it was really
fascinating to hear his perspective
about the good times and the bad uh
within apple and you know I think that
it wasn't um it wasn't just him that
brought this apple intelligence message
it was the market as well they sent
Apple stock up significantly on the
belief that there would be a super cycle
based on the iPhone 16 uh but the thing
I think that is particularly different
here with Gruber is that he's um that
Apple has lost trust lost his trust he
says uh the Fiasco here is not that
apple is late on AI it's also not that
they had to announce an embarrassing
delay on a product featured last week
those are problems not fiascos and
problems happen they're inevitable the
Fiasco is that Apple pitched a story
that wasn't true one that some people
within the company surely understood
wasn't true and they set a course B
based on that I think that Apple the the
Apple the Apple Sheen right has been a
big part of this company for a long time
what they said was taken as gospel they
uh rarely fa rarely failed in public
when they did it was non-consequential
like Apple maps I mean Apple Maps is
nothing compared to apple intelligence
uh now they're failing in public and
they're losing credibility and I think
that double whammy right picking up to
you know why we think Apple's uh Sy
embarrassment is more than just a
product uh I think grubert captures that
pretty well well I I would just add that
it's not that Apple intelligence isn't
as good as they said it was going to be
or that you know it's the fact that
other people are innovating and that's
what it's being compared to right we can
see the rest of the market we can see
advances in AI um you know these other
companies now can't even keep up with
demand for their AI products and
meanwhile Apple's is terrible and I
think that's the problem because before
what would happened is Apple would I I
don't think the first time they've done
this right I mean they they make all
sorts of claims and promises that are
not true they've done that over the
years but their customers are really
locked in and they've and they prevent
Innovation right so like it's not like
there was some other app store you know
I mean you had the Google Play Store but
essentially like the app store for apple
is its own market right and there wasn't
there's not another app store on there
so it's not like you could really there
was nothing to compare it to and now
there's something something something to
compare it to and people and that's sort
of the problem I
think and I think that that's totally
right and what really forced the issue
here and we talked about a little bit
last week was uh the Amazon product
reveal uh with its Voice Assistant whose
name I won't say because mine is not
muted right now uh but we are expecting
that that uh AI Assistant Plus to come
out this month and uh if it does it's
going to really make and it works it's
really going to make uh apple look even
worse and I mean I'll just tell you I
was uh speaking with some apple Watchers
after that uh Alexa oh shoot I said it
plus reveal and they were just
completely shaking their heads being
like you know why why can't they do that
and last week we we we ventured a guess
on the show that it was culture and I
think that grber just gets to it in his
post in a way that's extremely Salient
uh he he cites a 2011 Fortune story uh
talking about uh jobs and his
intolerance for failures um Steve Jobs
doesn't tolerate D Duds uh shortly after
this mobile me launch event he summoned
the team Gathering them in a Town Hall
Auditorium in a building on Apple's
campus um according to a participant in
the meeting jobs walked in clad in his
trademark black mock turtleneck and blue
jeans clasped his hands together and
asked a simple question can anyone tell
me what mobile me is supposed to do
having received a satisfactory answer he
continued so why the [ __ ] doesn't it do
that
and then basically jobs berates the
group for the next half hour you've
tarnished Apple's reput rep reputation
you should hate each other for letting
each other down and grber cites this and
now he returns to cook he says Tim Cook
should have already held a meeting like
that to address and rectify the Syrian
Apple intelligence debacle if such a
meeting hasn't yet occurred or doesn't
happen soon then I fear That's All She
Wrote The Ride is over where mediocrity
excuses and [ __ ] take root take root
they take over a culture of Excellence
accountability and integrity cannot
abide the acceptance of any of those
things and will quickly collapse upon
itself with the acceptance of all three
what do you read from that
read yeah again I just think it's that's
been true for a long time and you can
you can ride you can ride the wave for a
very long time when you have when you
have essentially a monopoly right so I
think for people who've really watched
the company closely it's like you sort
of know this but you know it just takes
a really long time for this stuff to
kind of play out and we're just we're
just seeing decisions that happened you
know a decade ago start to start to
really manifest itself and I don't think
Apple's going anywhere I mean I think
you know they'll have they'll have many
more years and probably good years in
the future but um it's just not it's not
going to be looked at the same um I also
think if you look at these companies
like all the other big tech companies
are kind of like doing every everything
now right they're like you know meta is
is doing their own AI chip and spending
billions of dollars to roll out these
data center sure apple apple is going to
do that too but I think it's not the
same thing and I mean look at look at
Amazon with with AWS they all of these
multiple lines of of business Google you
know they're they're move they're
leading Quantum Computing and apple just
it's just an iPhone company and I think
it's just that's that's a really narrow
thing in today's world world where you
know there's this explosion of this new
technology and also you know another
another BS thing that Apple pitched
which is this privacy thing which
honestly like I cannot believe how much
mileage they got out of that they kind
of just painted themselves into a corner
because you know all these other
companies that Apple has been trashing
for all these years they've been
collecting this data and and growing
their their ml expertise for many years
and now you know that becomes this very
valuable technology and Apple's just not
doing it because they you know I think
because of really another BS marketing
tactic honestly yeah and look I I think
what you said about Apple's not going
bankrupt neither of us believe Apple's
going to zero I don't think I mean they
are the one big tech company that stayed
above $3 trillion they're down 12% this
week and we're going to talk about the
stock implications here uh but they're
not it's not like they're going to fall
apart the iPhone is still strong
Services is ascendant uh but they also
have had declining iPhone sales like
their iPhone sales in q1 this year were
I think 3 and a half% less than they
were two years ago uh that's that's not
good you actually want that number uh to
go up uh if you want a higher install
base and so you could you basically are
going to become a company that is
milking your asset which is Apple
installs with things like app store fees
and uh Apple TV plus fees and storage
fees and not a company that's going to
be selling the things that that people
love and selling your inventions and I
think that there's one thing that I
would add to grber which is that I I
think they still are a company that
knows how to build excellent products uh
I I love the latest Genet iPhone that I
have and the MacBook for instance um but
it's a very specific type of Excellence
it's an Excellence that uh makes
products work very well with their
custom silicon and the fact that their
operating system is closed and they
control it that's a great Innovation and
it works well uh with their operating
system but uh that type of Excellence is
not a type of Excellence that transfers
well to AI which is inherently Messier
more open-ended like you said requires
more data requires more collaboration a
large language model is uh unlike most
other programs in that it's totally
probabilistic like it's not a
deterministic program which means that
when you release it you don't control it
and uh I think that's tough for apple
and their culture of excellence in one
area just is very difficult to uh
transfuse on to this area totally I
think in the tech industry you have to
constantly be disrupting yourself and
you know if you want if you want to
survive in the long run and you know a
wal Garden is is a way to just sort of
you know be insular and sort of you know
ride what you have and I mean even their
company headquarters you know it is kind
of like a walled G you know it's like a
metaphor for the company and it's like
it's not again I don't even think this
is so much about Apple Apple's just the
same they're doing the same thing it's
the same company it's just
eventually eventually new technology
comes along right and you just don't
know when that's going to happen like
nobody saw chat gbt happening and you
know but you knew something like that
would happen eventually right it's
totally unpredictable and you know now
it's happened and it's actually a great
lesson about antitrust too because there
were all these antitrust cases against
apple and I always thought it was like
you know I mean yeah they are this
monopo and and and a lot of the those
cases like cited stories that I wrote
you know when I was at the Washington
Post but I'm like this and I had this
thought at the time like this is never
going to disrupt Apple what's going to
disrupt them is new technology that's
how you that's how you you know create
sort of creative destru disruption and
it's it's sort of why like to bring it
to like what's going on today um you
know in Washington it's like why when
you know you start defunding basic res
research that's the stuff that
ultimately those are the seeds to use
the Apple metaphor that eventually lead
to you know this new technology that
forces companies to either innovate or
you know or sort of die on the vine the
that's right yeah and and I don't think
like this is our second week in a row
talking about this I don't think it's
because we hate Apple we're rooting
against it uh I just think that like
this is a fascinating big business story
it's the most powerful most valuable US
tech company uh failing to get ahead of
the latest the most important Tech
moment in in a long time and that's why
we're here not not to try to like you
know [ __ ] on Apple or anything like that
I agree I mean I I probably sound like
I'm anti-apple I I just bought a new
Macbook Pro it's amazing love it we
always have this in every one of these
segments is we talk about how bad Siri
is and then our latest trips to the
Apple Store but I do hate sir yeah I me
it's both can be true and that there's a
reason still the most valuable company
in the world by the way um a little more
collateral damage to this I don't think
anyone picked this very few people
picked up on this uh but it was buried
within a German story in Bloomberg he
says apple is still working on a foray
into a new product category the smart
home hub uh its developed device code is
called J 490 with an ipad-like screen
and home control features at one point
the company had hoped to announce the
product in March which is now but
because the device to an extent relied
on the delayed Siri capabilities it has
been postponed as well so there is
collateral damage here
well we have we belabored that point I
don't know if we've we've done enough uh
but but it's now now it becomes
interesting because like I said Wall
Street for a long time didn't penalize
Apple here uh they still expected big
upgrades in the iPhone 16 and the iPhone
17 and because of that the stock price
has held very strong and again it's a
story stock in some ways it's Trade It
trades at a premium uh people hold it uh
as a deer possession like even in the
comments on uh some of the CNBC Clips I
watched on YouTube this week people are
saying everything these people
downgrading Apple are saying is correct
but I'm still never selling a share um
but the the downgrades are coming and
apple got in the past week downgrades
from Jeff from Barclays and from Morgan
Stanley and there's this analyst Eric
wooding at at Morgan Stanley that I
thought has had some terrific coverage
uh on what's going on with this with the
stock and I'll just read a uh a little
segment that he shared on closing bell
with Scott wner about this on CNBC um he
says okay he says it it has an impact on
on upgrades that uh Siri or an advanced
Siri integrated with apple intelligence
is the number one feature that consumers
want from Apple and in the event uh they
don't get the Apple intelligence feature
they're looking for 50% say they defer
their iPhone purchase as a result it has
an impact on upgrade uh rates so Wall
Street has gotten in they have seen what
we're starting to see or they're
starting to see what we have seen and
they're they're downgrading and the the
stock is down 12% right now I don't want
to do like a stock prediction game but
uh you know like how far down could this
go but um again if it's a stock built on
a story and built on a Ling reputation
if the story and the reputation starts
to take a hit those share prices can as
well yeah for sure and I think they're
not even really I mean even even those
analyst reports are like such it's such
short-term thinking it's like oh well
maybe it'll be next year when Siri gets
better and then people will you know
flock to the iPhone again this is I
think the AI thing is it's changing the
whole Paradigm and so you have to think
there will be things about the way we
you know that the phone may not be the
form factor you know in the future at
some point right because of the way AI
is changing things or you know it
doesn't really may not make sense to may
not matter like the the the
technology May surpass the whole concept
of a wall Garden you know all Al
together
so and again it's not predictable and
I'm not making a prediction but I just
think this is how these things go like
we just can't you can't even imagine
what the world is going to be like when
these new waves of Technology come in
and you know all I know is it won't be
the same so but do you really think that
the phone is not going to be part of the
mix I mean I imagine even if AI becomes
even if we get AGI you know so to speak
we we'll still be using phones for a
while like the Humane pin I don't I
don't see that happening well yeah again
I'm not it's not that I know what the
form factor is I just know like when
even even calling the the iPhone a phone
is almost is almost thinking like in a
previous it's a previous era of
Technology right like it's a it's a
device that that connects us to you know
to intelligence right to to the world to
the world to this web that gets us you
know into the cloud and that allows us
to communicate or allows us to be
entertained and if you think of it that
way I mean there's there's all there's
all kinds of devices all kinds of things
that could sort of replace that or add
to that that sort of take outside of
this of this ecosystem that that Apple
has built so I I just think again who
knows what it is like neither of us are
are you know we're not technologists
right like we we cover this stuff but
it's just if you look at the trajectory
you know of new technology that's what
will happen maybe it's the Vision Pro
maybe that's where we go nicely done Tim
Cook you were ahead of
it well you know at some point that will
be you know that will be something
people use I'm sure um that would be one
form factor but you know I what they
really wanted to build was was AR
glasses right like these which Now sort
of meta's you know kind of getting into
that game they have this amazing
prototype who knows if they'll be able
to mass-produce it but that that
technology again it's like it's not
quite there yet it's like you they're
looking at these things that they think
are the next you know the next wave and
it turns out to be something completely
different right like they did not see
chat nobody saw it coming to be fair but
they were completely unprepared they
were the least prepared of all the big
tech companies for for that to happen
definitely and you know I say Apple
stock is down 12% on the week and well
maybe that's Apple intelligence related
or maybe that's just a something related
to what's going on in the market right
now because the S&P 500 has entered
correction territory it's down 10% off
its highs and a lot of that is coming at
the expense of the quote unquote
magnificent 7 or the big tech stocks
that were the growth engine behind the
Market's uh strong rise over the past
couple years up 50% uh in 23 and 24
overall uh now it's a different song and
this is from Yahoo finance an
astonishing 1.57 trillion wiped off the
Magnificent 7 since the start of 2025 uh
the volatility in the tech sector has
wiped that amount off of The Magnificent
7's valuation Nvidia saw the biggest
declined in the group having lost 539
billion off its valuation year-to date
Tesla Amazon Microsoft Apple alphabet
have all Fallen since the beginning of
the year the only one holding up is is
meta maybe it's just the Orion glasses
maybe the market loves those those AR
glasses uh but look it is a big downturn
right now we're in the middle of
obviously there's there's bigger forces
than Tech that are uh sending the market
down obviously the Tariff threat maybe
an impending trade War but to me a big
question that comes up in the middle of
all these declines is wait a second we
are in the middle of maybe the biggest
moment of funding for Tech R&D ever when
it comes to building uh research and
data centers for AI development and a
lot of this has been funded based off of
or bolstered based off of the fact that
the stocks have been so high and you can
expect a pretty nice return uh because
of uh your spend might get help your
share price go even higher and you'll
you'll get better earnings does the fact
that all these share prices have gone
down as much as they have you know does
the fact that Nvidia could lose a cool
half trillion dollars in a couple of
months uh does that impact the tech
industry's willingness ability to
continue to invest in AI what do you
think
Reed no I I think that the investment in
AI will continue um you know there's a I
think there's two things happening I
mean one for sure like if you look at
the private Market there's plenty plenty
of money to go into these you know into
building you know building out AI
infrastructure Etc um I think there
there may be a question around like is
it going to be the public companies that
do that because you know Amazon is is
spending you know hundred billion
dollars this year on AI infrastructure
for instance and Microsoft is not far
behind that you know all these companies
are spending huge huge dollars on
building out their AI infrastructure
which there is huge demand for as well I
mean it it actually makes sense I mean
this stuff is very useful today um it
may not be profitable it may cost more
uh to run those you know to run these
data centers than they're getting paid
for right now but we know those costs
come down over time so there's this huge
demand for a new technology and they're
trying to meet that demand that's not a
complicated thing to figure out I mean
investors understand like you know you
need to fund this stuff some of those
investments will turn out well and some
will fail um but that that will just
continue but I think there's this like
this other thing that's happening which
is like all these VCS in Silicon Valley
supported the Trump
Administration and you know they felt
like the Democrats were were kind of
anti-tech they were regulating too much
you know it was like there wasn't a
great relationship between tech and and
the Biden Administration right so they
went to Trump um at least part of it you
know a bunch of VCS people like you know
andrees and and and obviously Elon Musk
I think you have to wonder at this point
though whether you know we're looking at
a a fundamental shift in like the
economic system right now because of the
tactics or whatever you want to call
them that the Trump Administration is is
playing right now and I I sort of wonder
whether I mean I think the industry was
like hey we kind of just wanted like a
little less regulation
like we didn't necessarily want you to
tank this entire system that actually
works pretty well has worked pretty well
right like there's free Capital you you
fund these startups they have a great
stock market to go public in you know
the the basically the whole system is
favors the stock market and that's now
it's it's not even changing it's just
completely unpredictable as you said so
I kind of see those two those two themes
um as really interesting to watch
yeah and it works well for like the
system works well for who it works well
for VCS it works well for shareholders
it wasn't working well for I would say a
good chunk of the US uh which is why
they became why I think support built in
favor of protectionism uh and against
free trade it's really hard to undo free
trade I think we probably could have
been more careful in terms of the way we
entered uh these trade agreements but
free trade as it happens uh does benefit
big Tech in a big way whether that's
advertisers um from other countries you
know trying to sell into the US market
and running ads on Facebook uh or
expanding in the US and then buying
Cloud compute here uh and in particular
uh buying buying cars and then you look
at Tesla and you're starting to see some
some ripple effect here uh this is from
Business Insider Tesla's latest decline
could be one for the history books it
says Tesla's lost so much value in a
short period of time that JP Morgan
analyst said they couldn't think of
another comparable moment in Automotive
History we struggle to think of anything
analogous in the history of the
automotive industry in which a brand has
lost so much value so quickly the JP
Morgan analyst wrote in a note on
Wednesday that those uh the historical
cases before were confined to a single
Market whereas the decline in Tesla
sales in 2025 is not specific to any one
nation or geography so I guess you have
uh the threat of tariffs which Tes Tesla
has now started to say could impact them
um and maybe also some blowback to Elon
Musk um being so close to the Trump
Administration and associated with his
policies that you see in places like I
think Germany uh that sales have have
dropped uh something like 75% on
Teslas it's ironic I think that the
Germans don't want to buy Teslas I mean
you know and they're they're used to be
the whole meme about German cars right
like if you know within the Jewish
Community I mean I mean I think I think
it's sort of well Tesla's a special case
right I mean it's it's it's hard to like
separate all of these things out I mean
people don't like you know they don't
like Elon Musk there's all these
protests people are throwing Molotov
cocktails at the you know at the
dealerships um obviously a lot of people
in the Press don't like him either
they're writing nasty stories that's
probably having a ripple effect in the
market I mean they've also seen sales
drop I think in part because they have
this whole you know this whole new
lineup of cars coming out right like the
there's a slump in January anyway and
then on top of that their cars are like
about to be refreshed it's like the new
iPhone is about to come out why would
you buy an iPhone um so I think I think
it's there's a lot of things the company
though is still I mean they're just way
ahead of the industry technologically I
mean the the full
self-driving technology is just like
it's incred like somebody gave me a ride
home from the airport yesterday in Tesla
they did not touch all the way from you
know the San Francisco Airport to Marin
County they didn't touch the steering
wheel once I mean the the stuff is it's
incredible it's running on like
Transformer models right a single
Transformer model um so when if Tesla
starts if they start updating their cars
and they're selling cars that allow you
to you know not have to pay attention at
all like not even look at the road I
mean I I think I think that company
people are still going to buy that
product no matter who's who's running it
I think well I mean then put this to you
is this a moment and of course this is
not investment advice right this is just
two reporters kind of riffing um so
don't buy based off of this advice but
is this a moment that you'd want to
invest in companies like Tesla as
they're uh being hit by sentiment and
maybe the Magnificent Seven as they're
sort of um they're being uh put in the
middle of a potential trade War now I
think the optimistic view would be that
uh a lot of this is just posturing or at
the very worst um it's Trump trying to
get some of the tough stuff out of the
way in the beginning of his term so he
looks like someone who's really saved
the economy towards the end and left it
in good shape do what you have to
basically Crush inflation and then build
from there and in fact I was I asked you
Reed if there are any stories you want
to discuss today and you said it's a
great time to invest in AI St thanks to
Trump tanking the market so uh I turn
that to you is this the moment right I
mean yeah back to not get I mean look I
don't I don't invest in individual
stocks um I basically never have because
you know being a business reporter um
all these years doesn't allow me to but
I it does look you're just Tesla aside I
mean I would say Tesla's probably an AI
stock but Tesla aside like you know
there there there is huge demand for for
this new technology I mean at the end of
the day like how I mean something very
drastic would have to happen to change
the current situation which is you have
a new wave of technology that is going
to completely upend the world
economically in the long run it's just a
question of how fast it will happen um
and all these companies that are you
know building the infrastructure around
that are there kind of no brainer
investments in my mind um but it's easy
for me to say right I'm not I'm not like
you know putting my money I mean I have
whatever a 401k but um how how does that
not like how does a company spending a
lot of money to build a new technology
that has tremendous demand like how does
that not make sense you you tell me I I
can't that you know no I think it does
make sense it makes sense as long as it
delivers and I think we're still in this
point where we're not exactly sure the
magnitude that AI will deliver like I
think we've gotten over the hump of will
AI be useful it sure is yeah U but we
don't yet know like let's say what
percentage of GDP growth AI will
contribute to and if it's not a
meaningful percent then a lot of this
investment will be like all right well
uh you know you can upload your tax
returns into chat GPT and um have a fun
conversation with it but it's not going
to like you know help a company make 10%
more Revenue well wait there's two
things there's two things there that I
think you're I think you're combining
which is like GDP growth and companies
making money like you don't you don't
have to to make a lot of money you don't
have to move the GDP of a
country no with without a doubt I was
using that as an example to illustrate
the cumulative productivity increases
that were seen from Ai and so the
argument for those who support AI is
that it will be profound enough that it
will lead to tangible Nationwide
productivity increases uh of course a
company can make money that you can make
money again off of these like pay $10
and you can put JD Vance's face on a
lemon but the question is the magnitude
of this and that's that to me is like
when you ask like can should we question
the wisdom of this technology that's
going to change everything it's like the
reasonable doubt that you would have
here uh is is not that anything that's
been done politically will change what's
been H what where the trajectory is but
just like how how uh much they live up
to the big promises that some of the AI
Labs have put out there like Dario amod
saying you know there's not going to be
a software engineer in like three months
um if that's the case that's a MAG you
know very different than um if it's
again just this thing that you can kind
of Choke around with um and you know
tell your secrets to and then it can
give you some advice right I mean what
I'm saying is is I actually don't know
what the GDP impact is going to be of of
AI because the thing that people always
forget is like you could you can you can
invent something that's amazing but
people have to adopt that technology and
it's and you know generally we're very
slow to adopt technology I mean if you
look at the the internet you know or
just the personal computer internet web
sort of era of the last like 35 years I
mean that was it's a massive change like
it's it's completely disrupt Ed you know
the job market right but it happened
gradually it's not like it wasn't like
it just smacked everyone over the face
and instantly all these jobs ceased to
exist but it did change you know there
are jobs that don't exist a lot of jobs
that don't exist because of that new
technology and I think AI is it's it
might happen faster there's different
scenarios right if it if all of a sudden
it's like it just happen so fast and
there's no you just have no choice but
to adopt it and you know that is
probably not a great thing honestly that
would really that might really affect
things in a in a negative way because I
don't think humanity is really great at
sort of you know adjusting to these
really fast changes but you know over
time for sure right but then at the same
time like you don't have to have the it
like if even just software development
gets totally disrupted if that's the
only thing that comes out of this which
seems like pretty likely at this point
like that that's enough for you know for
these companies to make a ton of money
it's still it's still like a good
investment I think like regardless of
what the of what the big long-term
impact is on on the world if that does
that I mean does that make sense or do
you disagree I I only disagree slightly
I I think that that the money that we're
seeing being put into these companies
would not uh would be very different if
the use case was only uh software
development
are you still going to make a company
that that is extremely profitable
potentially but are you going to make
something that's going to live up to the
expectations of investors if it can just
do software engineering I I don't think
so and I don't think that's what's being
pitched to the investors either no no I
mean you're you're right it and it is I
think it is much more than that but yeah
but even that is like you know I'm not
GNA deny that's big yeah yeah I mean
like if anyone can hire if anybody can
have an army of software Developers for
basic basically nothing like that's
pretty it's pretty impactful I agree
having been as deep in the technology as
I have been I'm sure you've done the
same trying it out testing the new
features uh it it is incredible what
it's do like how quickly it's moving uh
and how how good it is already but again
there's one more question overhanging
all this which is how much better is it
going to get
because those concerns about the you
know the diminishing returns on
pre-training and growing the size of
your models those are legit Yan lon's
going to be on the show next week we're
going to talk about it um he's pretty
convinced that we've sort of we have hit
that moment of diminishing uh returns
and hearing him speak to it it's like
okay so um we're going to need some more
breakthroughs to keep this to keep
having this technology be more more
useful and we don't know what those
break breakthroughs are so there's a
chance that we just kind of hit a cap of
what llms can do today and of course
then you go to productizing them and
that's the big debate we have on the
show all the time is is the product or
the model uh that matters but I would
say it may be trouble uh again if this
is the best they are I'm not complaining
they're very good but they need to get
better to again live up to these
expectations yeah there's totally a leap
of faithing that that happens and and I
think Yan is so smart and and you know
love his you know just any thing he puts
out there is is fascinating to listen to
um but I think that um you know there's
there's this leap of faith thing that
that happens with AI where you you you
you build more compute capacity right
you give people you you allow you know
AI researchers computer scientists
access to just more compute power and
they just come up with new ways to use
it and so yeah I mean of course we you
know if you start to if you ramp up you
know if you just just increase the
compute power but it like by orders of
magnitude overnight I think it looks
like there's a plateau because it takes
time like normally that happens more
gradually so like the the AI research
and the compute power kind of go
together over time like they you know it
it's a it's like a ping ponging there's
a little more compute a little more
research a little more right now there's
just this huge leap in compute so I
think the research hasn't quite caught
up to it yet but again like that's not
something you can prove like you can't
prove that there will be some
breakthrough in the future that some kid
who's graduating from you know Stanford
today is going to figure something out
two years from now but I do think it
will probably happen um and we I guess
we're going to talk more you know about
some of the the new technology later too
so I don't want to get like too much
into that now but well that is a great
tease so we are going to talk about some
of the new technology including uh the
development of proprietary chips from
Amazon and what that's going to lead to
that's going to advance Ai and also uh
we haven't yet talked about how open AI
is going to let other apps deploy its
agent uh AI so we'll do that when we
come back from the break right after
this and we're back here on big
technology podcast with Reed albergotti
the technology editor at semore uh we
have big news coming out from openai
this is from The Verge openai will let
other apps deploy its computer operating
AI agents are said to be the future of
AI and now opening is trying to help
developers build their own the company
is releasing a new responses API that
offers building blocks for developers to
create agents capable of searching the
web digging through files and Performing
tasks on a computer on their behalf
there are some agents that we will be
able to build ourselves like deep
research and operator uh says Oliver God
the head of product uh for the openai
platform uh but the world is so complex
that there are so many Industries and
use cases and we're super decided to
provide these foundations building
blocks uh for developers to build the
best agents for their use cases and
their needs I want to say that this is
big because giving this technology to
developers to me seems like a real
opportunity uh to be able to sort of
prove out the agent use case we've been
hearing about so often uh but the the
skeptical side of me says um operator
and deep research seem more like Pro
like a party trick than an actual
application right now and I guess it
might be useful in some maybe obscure
data entry case but these companies are
already using like macros and robotic
process Automation and I don't know if
this will necessarily be a leap ahead
you've been following the the news what
do you think about it well yeah I mean I
think you you know you bring up a good
point I mean look I think I I think it's
probably big just because you're giving
you're giving Developers giving the
general public access to something that
will allow them to just unleash their
creativity on you know on on this
technology and I think that's always
interesting like it's just sort of
exciting to to kind of like see what
people come up with I haven't played
around with it yet but I don't know if
you've done this I I learned that it's
called Vibe coding I didn't really know
but like i' indeed yeah I mean I I
started doing that and um you know it's
just like
it's incredible what you can do you know
with you know when just playing around
with this stuff is somebody who just
doesn't really know anything about
coding what you can build is it's
amazing but it's also you kind of see
how like again back to like the
infrastructure build outs you could see
how you know you start hitting these
token limits these context limits that
sort of you know I think limit the
technology right now but like will those
barriers will will be you know as long
as people keep investing in the you know
in the infrastructure which I think they
will those barriers are going to go away
and then I think that's when it becomes
really you know even more transformative
have you Vibe coded anything fun yeah
like I did some stuff with uh whichit
should we Define Vibe coding it's
basically just prompting software and
just adjusting based on prompts not
coding things and just building anything
that you want in your daily life right
in my case it's just like it's is like
okay I'm going to try this like let me
see if I can build a little app with
repet you know repet agent and then
eventually you know I need more tokens I
need more power you know I'm going to go
use you know Claude Sonet and and it's
like you know create create software
that does this and you watch it like
write code and then you know you're
putting that into the terminal and and
you're and at the same time I mean for
me as a you know somebody who's covered
technology but never been a technologist
it's like I'm learning so much too it
just it teaches you like in a way like
how software works if you don't know
already um and I just F I find it you if
you if you do that and you start like
really getting into it and you start
hitting these limits of the you know
token limits and stuff and you're
getting cut off it's like oh okay I can
see I kind of see now what this is all
about and why we need all these data
centers and you know to bring the cost
down um but and so like I just it's when
I see that I'm just like oh I want to
try that like I want to see how that how
that works um what have I built I mean I
you know the thing is it's not like it's
not there yet so these things aren't
like super complex but like just stuff
to help me you know help me uh plan kids
summer camps right like going out on the
web and pulling you know pulling
information off of various you know
websites and and you know putting it
into different forms um I thought that
like one fun was just like looking at um
like having operator look for
specific specific emails and then like
connecting that to you know twilio and
having it send me a text message about I
mean you could just do cool stuff and
it's not but again like I want to build
more complex things right I want to like
find ways to save lots of time and
automate everything from my professional
life to my personal life and we're not
quite there yet but it seems kind of
close have you built anything what have
you done yeah I mean I've built uh I
mean using CLA and it's just a couple
prompts but I've built games like I
talked about on our Wednesday episode
with the Roblox CEO um I also built uh
retirement like a retirement calculator
where I uploaded a fake bank statement
and was just like make me a financial
plan based off of this bank statement
and I was like all right well now build
me a retirement calculator Just for
kicks and it built a working retirement
calculator uh with like various Fields
like a very s nice and sophisticated one
so to me I think that like just this
power to imagine and prompt any piece of
software like as we're talking I'm
thinking like do I want to build uh like
my own tracker for big technology
stories or podcast guests a specific
calendar like you can probably prompt
that with Claude and they give you
dedicated link so you can kind of use
that uh as a web page and sort of next
thing you know you have this like custom
application that you would have had to
pay maybe a few thousand dollars uh for
someone to build for
you yeah totally and I think it's um
have you have you played around with
like any of these ones the like like the
repet agent there's a bunch of them
where they'll like literally just bu you
just like build me this and the app is
just created yeah I mean that's what
Claude can do that now you did that with
Claude like end to end yeah to end CL
yeah that's a that's that's really fun
yeah I mean replit uses Claud so I guess
it's similar but yeah yeah no it's it's
crazy and and like when we talk about
how things are going to get better uh
that in particular to me is is very
exciting and and it might be lucrative
so like again talking about the payoff
we have a story it's a little bit old
but I think we it's worth talking about
on the show that open AI is reportedly
planning to charge up to two $20,000 a
month for specialized a agents so
they're working on a high income
knowledge worker agent uh which will be
priced at 2,000 a month a software
developer agent at 10,000 a month and
the most expensive rumored agent uh
$20,000 per month for a PhD level
research assistant the story I think
this is the information story uh they
say that SoftBank and openai investor
has committed $3 billion uh to use open
AI guys agent products this year alone
uh so maybe you know this is an answer
to our question from like where what's
going to happen from the first half do
you think this stuff is going to get any
uptake read you know the $20,000 thing
it hasn't it hasn't actually launched
yet um but my guess is if it does launch
and I I did read that story and the
information great great reporting as
always um if it does if it does launch
then I think they know you know there
probably is demand for it right and I
mean
amazing that I mean there's they have
like the 200 a month plan too right the
Pro Plan that oh yeah apparently is just
you know has incredible uptake and
they're still you know they're still
losing money on it to be fair but I mean
the fact that people are willing to pay
that much for this stuff is just you
know and it's and it's still so new I
mean it just feels like it still feels
like V1 to me I mean when I when I play
with it so you know it's just it's you
know it's an amazing it's amazing
technology I think definitely is have
you tried or uh do you have any thoughts
on Manis I think it's called Manis
manuse it's the Chinese uh agent you
know I haven't used it actually I tried
I tried deep seek played around with
that um but I have have you used that I
haven't used it I've just seen it
working at like incredibly fast-paced
speed and um I actually read this I mean
I've applied to be on the weight list
but um there is apparently lengthy
weight list and I don't know I've been
I've been too busy this week to write
them and say hey can I get like a press
uh access point but MIT tech review did
get get access and I read their review
and um they found that it feels like
collaborating with a highly intelligent
and efficient intern while it
occasionally lacks understanding of what
it's being asked to do makes incorrect
assumptions or Cuts Corners to expedite
tasks it explains its reasoning clearly
it's remarkably adaptable and can
improve substantially when provided with
detailed instructions or feedback it's
promising but not perfect okay so this
journalist gave Manis three assignments
uh one of them let's just talk about one
compile a list of notable reporters
covering China Tech so this is the
review of how it did it gave them a list
with five names and five honorable
mentions below them uh some of the
journalist notable work was listed some
of it wasn't uh the journalist asked
Manis why and it said it was lazy partly
due to time constraints I tried to
expedite the research process um this is
my again this is my criticism of this
stuff yeah you could probably just ask
chat GPT for a list and it will do just
as good a job as your fancy agent so I
think we're g to just have some uh
moments where we try to have to figure
out how to use these and like you said
it's going to take a while for the use
cases to develop yeah and I think the
other thing that's sort of about the
Chinese ones like deep I mean deeps had
this this app as well is that you know
they even open AI like do you remember
Sam mman tweeting like we're sorry we're
out of GP we're just out of gpus I mean
it's like I mean I'm sure I'm sure you
talked about it on the show and it's
like you know they're they're blocking
gpus from being sent to China so imagine
imagine those you know if any of those
products took off they would just have a
very difficult time you know keep
keeping up with the demand if you know
so it's all about efficiency right like
it's all about creating you know doing
this stuff with as efficiently as
possible which is great but like you
know even the state-of-the-art stuff
like Claude Sonet and Etc is you know
pushing the the they're barely you know
it's still like V1 right so if you're
doing the sort of like slightly less
than you know the state-ofthe-art but
more efficiently it's like it's never
going to be like that impressive right
because it's always it's always kind of
like a slight step behind so you know I
that's sort of how I view these products
like they're they have to get more
efficient everybody's trying to do that
everybody's trying to make this stuff as
inexpensive as possible um the big labs
are doing the same thing right so I
don't know I mean I think they're
they're interesting but it's not like
it's not going to like blow our you know
blow up the whole Market you know yeah
and it's just going to take a while for
use cases I mean I think criminals will
have a great time with this stuff
because it will just try to fish
everybody and hack into their systems uh
but the good use cases I think will be
tougher to find so as right before we
leave I want to hear you have a story
coming out in semaphore uh it's about
Amazon's chip effort called project
reineer now I've always wondered about
these proprietary chip efforts because
you hear the same thing from every CEO
that talks about them which is we'll
take every chip that Nvidia will give us
and we're very confident in our own
chips uh which to me is somewhat
contradictory so what have you found and
um and which part of the executive
statement should we believe the
most well you know I went out I went out
and um you know visited the Amazon chip
lab and talked to them and and you know
they obviously they're they're you know
they they want to talk up their
technology um the interesting thing I
think about there's a couple interesting
things about the Amazon effort so you
know they've been at it for a while now
they acquired this Israeli company anaer
Labs 10 years ago and you know this is
their second generation of the trinium
chips tranium 2 and this chip is I mean
it's not as good as like an Nvidia chip
on a onet toone basis if you compare
them but if you if you network them
together and you're talking about
hundreds of thousands of these things
and every piece of the network you know
of the data centers are custom built to
be as efficient as possible you do start
to get sort of these these efficiency
gains and that's kind of what it's all
about right we've talked about this now
you know this has come up on this show a
few times um so this their big project
is called reineer right this they're
going to build this huge cluster of
chips and they say that it's also
they've found a way to connect multi
multiple buildings together you know
using um using this elastic fabric
technology that they've been at for for
a while if that's true I think it's
really interesting I mean to my
knowledge you know people have trained
models across multiple locations for
sure but the state-of-the-art models you
know either they have to be split apart
where like parts of the model are being
trained in one building but what Anna
Perna is saying is they you can actually
treat a multiple location cluster of
compute as one massive cluster as if
it's in the same as if it's in the same
building I mean if that's true then you
know I think that puts them a step ahead
and then the other the other big thing
is that and this is not new but they've
you know they got anthropic to you know
train the next model of of Claude on
this you know on this reer cluster and
it worked you know what's that it worked
worked well they no they haven't they
haven't actually built the the the
cluster hasn't even built yet so I think
this is like it's like a big test I
think for for Amazon if they can
actually pull this off and the other
thing is like they're a huge investor in
anthropic so you know it's not like a I
mean I'm sure there's you know that has
something to do with this decision but I
also don't think anthropic is just going
to like they're not going to like decide
to you know to to stake their future of
the company on this technology if it's
not good and so I think what happens
like what could happen with this effort
is that you know and and also anthropic
has helped them design these chips and
all that what could happen is you know
if this is a success if they're able to
build Claude and Claude remains you know
state-of-the-art um that gives them a
lot more customers right because now
Claude will run more efficiently on the
tranium 2 chips and so I think that that
actually does start to help and they've
got some other you know some other
customers as well like data bricks apple
is considering it um you know poolside
which is like a kind of kind of hot AI
company um so I think there's a I think
there's an interesting I mean they H
they definitely have an interesting
story around these these data centers
and I you know they're not the only ones
um they're not the only ones out there I
mean Google is obviously they've been
doing this the longest this kind of
vertically integrated um custom chip
strategy you know meta is getting into
it reportedly so there other people
doing it but I mean it's
a if you think about this the scale of
this stuff efficiency does become kind
of the most important thing so I I do
think maybe not every kind of every
custom ship out there but the ones that
where you can really vertically
integrate are really interesting and so
what happens to Nvidia
Nvidia is fine I mean I don't I don't
think the pie is growing so big so it's
growing so fast like nobody's going to
like lose here you know none of these
big players are going to lose like
Nvidia you know people are still going
to like Nvidia still won't be able to
keep up with demand for their chips I
think for for a long time I mean it's
just that you need more like it's just
not you know you can't meet Demand with
just Nvidia I think definitely all right
we will set this podcast to go live just
as your story comes out tell folks where
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semop for.com and um please sign up for
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uh are you guys going
paid I just going to have a little I
just
like I don't want to make it so I want
to create some urgency you know like
maybe maybe you'll get grandfathered in
when we do okay well I'm I'm subscribed
I get it um every time it gets sent out
and I do do suggest you go check it out
as well Reed albergotti great to see you
again our returning champ delivers
another championship performance here
thank you for coming on the show thank
you so much it was really fun super fun
all right everybody as I mentioned Yan
Luna is going to be on the show on
Wednesday so stay tuned for that you're
not going to want to miss it and then
next week R and I will be back to break
down the week's news thank you for
listening and we'll see you next time on
big technology podcast