Big Technology's New Release, AI Bubble Looms, Apple's Next Event — With Brian McCullough

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2023-10-25

YouTube video id: I6-MpYyiMTA

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6-MpYyiMTA

big technology is launching a new
Premium Edition with a new monthly
podcast we also take a look at the state
of tech as the year draws to a close and
then we sort fact and fiction from Ai
and crypto and maybe we throw in a
little bit of Apple's big news coming up
right after this welcome to Big
technology podcast a show for cool- eded
nuance conversation of the tech world
and Beyond we have a special double
feature episode today because we're
running this both on the big technology
feed and on Tech meme right home feed
which means that none other than Brian
McCulla is joining us live welcome Brian
hey Alex uh welcome Tech meme Rome
listeners to another weekend bonus
episode with our buddy Alex I think
you've been on like five or six times at
this point um so that sounds right it's
always pleasure to talk Brian yeah no no
intros needed uh on my side but given
that um this is news for your audience
and uh for mine too what is this new big
technology premium thing Alex okay
thanks for teing me up perfectly there
so this is great this is an opportunity
for me to introduce it both to our
listeners on big technology podcast and
to Tech meme Rome listeners so um big
technolog has been free for three years
and the free edition will remain uh
after this but I'm introducing this new
Premium Edition that's just going to
give more of what we've been doing and
um in new forms and new formats with new
features and even a new podcast so um
I'll start with the podcast first
because I feel like it's you know pretty
exciting for podcast listeners it's
called Big Tech War Stories it's going
to run once a month for big technology
premium subscribers and it's going to be
a conversation with people um who are
who have been in the weeds inside big
tech companies and have either built a
product that people love or one that was
never released and we're going to speak
with them about what exactly happened I
think I have a clip from it that I can
play here this is with so our first
episode which which is going to be
running next week is with garv mimada
who's the first product manager of on
Google's Lambda
chatbot what are some lessons learned
from for Google looking in the rearview
mirr like how how should Google change
they need to go back to the experimental
root I feel like over the years Google
has become more and more conservative
about doing things they care a lot about
PR like public relations they care a lot
about how their images shown in the
media and I feel that at least in my
experience that played so many projects
inside of Google it was like the pr was
always top of mind for
leaders and on the other side like open
AI like they don't give a [ __ ] about PR
or like for the most part they don't
like they're like okay this is what we
think is right this is how we think is a
reasonable way of putting it out they be
they become vulnerable they put it out
and then they kind of work with the
community with respect to that so that's
a bit of a clip of the new show um I'm
stoked about it again coming next Monday
and then in addition to that with this
Premium Edition we have this new thing
called the panel which you're on which
is we already have about 20 Tech experts
um we talking about analysts VCS
journalists and technologists that are
going to weigh in on news as it's
happening so let's say the Silicon
Valley bank is in the middle of
collapsing um I'm going to email the
panel the panel all uh well when it's
relevant email one to two sentence
replies about how to think about the
news and we'll be able to contextualize
it for readers and then finally we have
a new Amazon column uh coming from
Christy Coulter who's a recent guest of
the show she spent 11 years at Amazon
and has like a really good insight into
how the company works so that's it
basically big technology premium you can
find it on big technology.com
and the launch special will still be
going on so that's 30% off the annual
price which is already a good amount off
of the monthly price so you can get an
annual subscription for $90 and that's
it two two comments on this uh first of
all thank you Alex for asking me to be
involved in this panel thing uh I
actually saw Alex in person this weekend
and I was like oh you should have this
person on the panel you should have this
person on the panel and everyone I said
he was like they're on so believe me
when I say this is a blue ribbon panel
because everyone that I was suggesting
to him um they have already agreed to be
on the panel so that's that's great um
and then uh number two I have a
suggestion for the podcast um years ago
I did an interview with one of the
people on the team at dig if you know
the history that like dig was the big
thing before Reddit and they did a site
redesign that destroyed dig and Reddit
came to the four so that would be a sort
of behindth scenes story if I can uh
I'll have to dig into my archives and
see that person great that would that
it's a good story yes okay that would be
great we'll see if we can make that
happen yeah yeah so just got it off the
ground we're recording on Tuesday this
show is going live on my feed Wednesday
and then yours on the weekend but this
is this thing is fresh hot fresh and hot
off the presses uh and i' I've been like
thinking about the right formula for
many years I want to be able to keep the
free product for those who want but also
offer more for people who are interested
in a premium subscription something that
can help them do their jobs better you
know give themselves an edge in their
career give their companies an edge
against the competition and I think that
this sort of ins Insight in terms of
being able to rch events as they happen
and learn about how the best do it uh is
the best possible offering and I'm
really excited to roll it out today well
uh everyone go check it out because as
you know big technology is one of the
best uh sources out there for really
in-depth sort of stuff in terms of
analyzing uh the tech landscape deeper
than I can do in my uh 15-minute show
however and I'm going to grab the re
slightly because um one of the reason
reasons why I wanted to talk to you this
week is because you are the big
technology guy and it's sort of that
time of year when a young man's fancy
turns to thoughts of yearend
Recaps um and so this is me teeing into
our first topic which is um I wanted to
ask you seeing as how you follow closer
than I do um all of the big Tech
platforms this year started out with
tech in turmoil with layoffs um with you
know some people questioning you know
the business models of some like was
meta in trouble and stock down whatever
percent it was or whatever um I feel
like it's not uh that much in turmoil so
uh if you'll allow me to pose the
question to you but then we can go back
and forth on this um what happened to
Big Tech this year I feel like they've
recovered is that a a is that the
correct sense or what happened
I mean they've definitely recovered and
you know you just have to look at meta's
stock price right up
150% over the year to know that all that
doomsaying towards the end of last year
uh was misplaced and that these
companies were always already sorry they
were always going to respond to the
demands of the market and boy did they
do it so what you had is Mark Zuckerberg
basically you know he came in flat
footed but then immediately realized
that it was going to have to be a year
of efficiency as he put it right big
cuts and a focus more on uh inventing
versus maintaining and I think you've
seen that meta has done the cost cutting
it's very tough for them right they had
to cut a large percentage of their staff
but it also changed the culture
internally where they started you know
started acting less like a big company
and more like a company with some
urgency and you've seen that manifested
with big moments where they've shipped
you know their open- Source AI model
llama they've opened they've shipped
chat Bots this whole new uh slew of
purpose built chat Bots uh that you can
now get in WhatsApp and messenger
honestly like you know been among the
biggest Skeptics of what this metaverse
thing was going to be for consumers but
I just got a chance to try the Oculus 3
uh Quest 3 and I thought it was very
impressive it it has great pass through
so you basically can wear it walk around
and see everything going on in the room
with you and it's not quite where needs
to be obviously it needs to be much
thinner than what it looks like now as
opposed to these big goggles but I mean
is it getting there absolutely
especially because Apple's bringing it
Forward um and so so I think like meta
is emblematic of the type of movement
you've seen through the entire big Tech
uh Echelon where there's been you know
cuts that they had to make and they've
made them how painful they were and then
Innovation and I mean AI which we're
going to talk about later has
underpinned a lot of that so uh I
attended a a meta event uh sometime in
the summer June or July um
and they were talking about all the AI
stuff they were going to bring into
their ads products and things like that
but they constantly made the point that
like we're still committed to the
metaverse um is it is it just that maybe
it's they they still are committed and
they're still spending money on it but
is it also a thing where it's like if we
just don't shout it from the rooftops
that keeps Wall Street happy like um
it's not like they're walking away from
it or doing a mayou saying well that was
a that was a culdesac um they're just
not talking about the metaverse as you
know forthrightly as they were say a
year ago absolutely I mean don't you
think that when they said year of
efficiency I mean how much of Wall
Street thought that meant not investing
you know billions of dollars into the
metaverse every year not losing billions
of dollars that's actually not what
happened they didn't cut spend at all
they in fact increased spend on the the
metaverse I mean they they are not
taking their foot off the gas pedal
there and they've just tried to trim
elsewhere within the company um and not
only that their their ad product has
recovered nicely from Apple's uh
anti-tracking moves so you put it all
together and it is sort of it's almost
just you know business as usual in a way
that the strategy hasn't changed maybe
they've added more AI into it um but
they're just trying to do it in a way
that's again way you know a method of
building with urgency and slightly
although not dramatically less people
well so that I was going to ask again
like you go on the like compound and
friends like you're closer to like the
stock market end of this or whatever was
it ever a case that like in the early
part of the
year were were were like was EPS down
for any of these companies were like
were profits significantly hit and
they've come back or was it more that
they were being caught cous in terms of
like forecasting and also so then when
they do cuts to especially Personnel
that looks better to the bottom line to
Wall Street what I'm asking is were
their businesses significantly hit you
just mentioned meta's ad business
recovering from the ATT thing were they
hit and they've recovered or is it just
the vibe which all of Wall Street is to
a certain extent where Wall Street likes
the narrative better now part of both I
mean there was a real hit especially
with Apple's anti-tracking moves we're
talking about a 10 billion doll loss
coming in or contraction of Revenue
coming in and in particular because
Apple didn't let them track uh what was
going
on the app for meta specifically that
has come back in the sense that like are
we back to where we were before ATT not
100% but there's two thing that two
things that have happened one is that
people have taken their money uh and
they've brought it to Snapchat and
they've brought it to Twitter and they
brought it elsewhere and then you know
even even though they weren't getting
the same returns that they were on
Facebook they've just been like a Shucks
you know the best place we have to put
our money is Facebook so they've
actually like come back from that
worldwide tour and be like all right
Facebook you know take it then Facebook
has built a lot of technical tools that
have enabled these advertisers to start
to get maybe not back to where they were
but to a point where they are pretty
comfortable now spending money with this
company so you're at a point where you
also had some pretty hard comps against
coid because people all you know every
compan that we're talking about in in
big Tech just had massive uh increases
in Revenue during Co because they were
basically the economy so that tails off
a little bit but now I mean it's
definitely evened out at this point and
everything is pointing up for these
companies so if we have time can I ask
you for two other specific companies
we'll save uh Google alphabet for the AI
conversation later but you're talking
about Co times and cutting back um the
workforce that's Amazon right uh Amazon
was also dealing with the sort of the
transition to a new regime you know Andy
Jesse taking over so uh what's your take
on Amazon's year this year I mean in
some ways good uh they really were slow
on the AI front but they positioned
themselves a lot better with their big
investment in anthropic right already
1.25 billion in anthropic potentially up
to 4 billion investment in anthropic
which is like this counterweight to open
AI so now they have a research house
similar to the way that Microsoft has a
research house and while doing this
they've sort of and Matt Wood was uh
this VP from AWS was on the show a few
months back talking about this where
they've kind of created AWS as this
Clearing House for AI models so no
matter what model you want to build
they're not going to favor necessarily
the ones that are developed within
Amazon or the ones that are developed
within anthropic they have access to the
builders and they're like all right
Builders like come use our tools and
build so I think I think they're in good
shape there the one you know concern for
Amazon is that AWS growth has really
been slowing in a way that you know you
see Google Google I mean Google Cloud
right it's not anywhere closed but it's
starting to at least put put up some
formidable competition and there's still
a shine around Azure Microsoft's Cloud
offering and so you put it all together
and at Amazon you know you're you're
you're still dealing with the fall out
of the pandemic right because you
overbuilt your infrastructure you kind
of Rec caught CL flat-footed on AI but
you're starting to make up for that and
you came into this year and it was
probably like an oh my God what are we
going to do scenario people talking
about Jeff Bezos coming back and now the
ship seems to be riding there as well
and they're up about 40% on the year so
um one thing that I have been hearing
which might be related to the AWS thing
I don't know if you've been hearing this
too but the the idea that um there are
these new startups that have access to
the Nvidia chips that are creating sort
of um sort of new Cloud offerings um
I've been hearing from a lot of people
that like this could provide the opening
for people to get a wedge against the
traditional because essentially running
a um sort of a a cloud instance or a you
know a set of racks for doing AI stuff
is different you have to design it
differently than how a traditional cloud
service does and so I think maybe that's
some of the concerns around AWS is I've
been hearing people say a bunch of these
startups that now are getting
multi-billion dollar valuations just
because they have access to a100 chips
um if people get like uh sort of um
acclimated to using these people to do
their AI stuff well then it's easy to be
like well here we'll add on this Cloud
thing or whatever anyway the point being
this might be an opportunity for people
to um create uh alternatives to AWS and
the traditional Cloud providers right
and don't you think it's a huge uh
opportunity for NVIDIA I mean they are
starting to license some of their
Computing I mean today they were talking
about also getting to the gpus which is
different but Nvidia is investing in all
those like coher and what's the one in
Jersey or whatever right or maybe that's
the one in Jersey anyway the point being
is that yes all those ones that are
having these multi-billion dollar
valuations you're seeing that the lead
investor is NVIDIA so um yeah and Nvidia
their B Nvidia has an interest in uh
powering uh Cloud stuff so yeah exactly
don't you love the fact that like one of
the more important companies in this
space is in Jersey it's like such a
jersey thing it's like yo you need some
chips come to Jersey yeah no I love that
company because I I you know I I think I
did it the story a couple months ago
they just had a bunch of um gpus left
over because they were uh uh
experimenting with crypto and then all
of the sudden it's like well well we're
not doing crypto anymore but we still
have these and everyone's like please
please give me give me um there's a
there's plenty of startups right now
that are are plowing that field FYI so
right maybe that's what web 3 was all
along where Web Two web one was uh read
web two was right and web 3 was
stockpile Nvidia chips and sell them for
the AI boom hey uh I always say that the
whole reason web 2 happened was because
it was all of the infrastructure left
over from web 1 like all of the blow up
of you know Global Crossing and all
those that left all the the dark fiber
in the ground uh real quick last one
that I want to do here um Apple's story
this year is essentially just a global
macro story that Global growth slowed
and they couldn't sell as many phones
and that's it or is there any other
larger story to the Apple story yeah
there's like a few angles so like yes
growth slowed um the number two thing is
that people by and large upgraded
everything they needed during the
pandemic right so you had a 2year super
super super cycle um and then like
people just don't need uh to replace so
and and by the way like this is obvious
at this point but an apple you know an
iPhone 12 or 13 is fine for five years
really uh if you had the 10 you needed
the 15 but if you have something 12 13
you can probably I mean there's not a
massive difference so the compelling
event upgrade is no longer there in the
same way that it was um and then I mean
honestly like there is some some worry
from China where you've and this is
something that has been overlooked but I
think is really important we've talked
about it in the show in the past where
the Chinese government said if you're in
public service in China no iPhones and
not only is that a decent sized amount
of the market there but it's also a
signal to people in China that says hey
if you have national pride don't use the
iPhone we make great phones here you
know okay we might be reading your data
on them but if you love China use a
Huawei and now Huawei is the number one
phone in China so there's a lot of
different um currents riding against
Apple the comps to to co definitely
don't help but we have like four
straight quarters of Revenue growth
decline we're going to talk about their
new laptops and you know towards the end
of the show but um but gez you know not
only they have Revenue decline but they
have serious geopolitical risk that's a
rough spot to be in if you're Apple
indeed and um in terms of like like we
said you know maybe everyone recognizes
that they don't need a new phone as
often as every two years you had uh
Google acknowledging that with the pixel
what is they they're supporting out to
eight years or something crazy like that
now but um yeah it's a very long time
yeah yeah which uh you would imagine
that some people will have to match at
some point but we'll see um okay that's
my that's my trip around let me tell you
Brian yeah yeah I mean to to me the
thing the real big story so first of all
like I think we know that these tech
companies are they're in good shape and
you mentioned the compound and friends I
think one of the things that Josh Brown
uh who is the co-host of that show has
talked about is that AI save the market
in 2023 I really think that's true we're
going to get into that in the next
segment but one thing that I I think is
super important to touch on um is to me
the underrated unheralded Story of the
Year and listeners of big technology
podcast probably know how I feel about
this because we've talked so much about
it is that self-driving cars took a huge
leap a tremendous leap and our growing
are they're they're finally at the point
where the driving is good enough that
they are um you know able to operate
functionally on large in large large
portions of cities
247 uh we're going to have uh wayo CEO
Teedra maakana on next week on big
technology podcast and one of the things
listeners are going to hear in that
conversation is that weo since 2021 has
gone from 50 square miles of operation
within Phoenix which is already a decent
amount of size to more than 200 square
miles in Phoenix not only that operating
in San Francisco testing in LA and and
we have Crews testing on the freeways so
the speed and and and success at which
this wave is coming is is truly
fascinating and you know while it's kind
of interesting like while we all talked
about crypto um AI was quietly the
biggest story in Tech and now as maybe
while we're all talking about AI the
rise of self-driving is quietly the
biggest story in Tech to the degree I
mean I know that obviously there's
different ways to answer this but um I I
I I agree that it's a big story in in
terms of a technology that we were
promised promised promised and it it
kept not coming and and I had the famous
uh will we get self-driving by 2020 as
everyone promised that it never came
true um but is that a big Tech story in
the sense that I mean weo and Cruz could
become big companies but is that going
to be that's almost ancillary to Tech in
the same way that Uber in a sense is
ancillary like do you see what I'm
saying like is this when we tend to
think of big Tech in terms of like the
platforms it's like well Google can do X
Y and Z or why can't you also do a music
service why can't you also do movies and
is is I know that weo comes out of
alphabet but is this if it's a success
10 years from now is it a story of like
well yes um I don't own a car anymore
because I have a A whmo or a cruise
subscription but that's sort of Walled
off from the larger Tech story I think
it's a great Tech story and I think that
like we sometimes can judge the the
impact of tech in terms of the way that
it rearranges our world right and for
for better or worse I think this is
mostly a better situation and you know
despite the fact that everybody tags me
when a cruise falls into a puddle of
cement in San Francisco which like not
great but come on um you know we anyway
we're going to talk about it more on
Wednesday about all these these
headlines about the cruise hitting a
person or someone being critically
injured under a cruise when it turns out
it was a human driver that slammed into
them and they just landed under the
cruise but um but I think that this
could really reor Orient the way and not
to get too deep into this because it's
going to take a while and these promises
have been made and and delayed um but it
will reorient the way that our cities
work it will change you know you know if
you don't if nobody owns these cars and
you're just hailing them then you don't
really need space for parking I think it
will create a much better world and and
will probably be I mean I put it up
there with iPhone Chachi PT and wayo car
is the three most amazing experiences
I've had with tech in my lifetime you
know um the other I don't know if you've
been uh aware of this but um
simultaneously to all of a sudden 6
months ago oh wait there are way more uh
self-driving cars out there than I
anticipated um are you aware that like
the drone delivery thing is actually
becoming a reality too and it's not
necessarily Amazon though apparently
they've they've made some more moves
recently but like the the FAA has
officially like given the okay for like
real actual drone delivery for stuff in
the US and so like I feel like that's
another one where it was a promise for
the last decade that has never come true
but while everyone is looking elsewhere
I feel like um drones are suddenly
becoming closer to being a reality sort
of like self-driving cars are that's
pretty exciting I'm I'm Pro drone I like
the idea I mean as long as you're not
like flying your drone and looking into
my window with your camera like uh I
think that we really benefit from the
ability for drones to deliver things I
mean it's also good I'd imagine better
for the environment than having a car
drive around to do do that I think that
drone uh photography and footage is
exceptional to watch I've been uh when I
was at BuzzFeed I flew the drones and
captured uh some wild footage inside uh
some of the Wildfire impacted areas in
California so um I didn't realize it was
it was that close to being approved in
terms of delivery but are that off from
seeing this stuff hit yeah no this is
what I'm saying is that the two stories
rhyme to me in the same way that like
the promise was self-driving and then it
never came never came and now all of a
sudden like a switch has been flipped
and that is that has been true I think
Walmart is whoever's doing it with
Walmart I don't have any of my notes in
front of me um is is the furthest along
but even this week I saw movement from
Amazon air or whatever they call it um
for them doing more than than they had
been doing too so what if we look back
on 2023 as the year that self-driving
and drone delivery uh passed the
threshold and started to get real yeah
yeah definitely and it's interesting
right because in the middle of this AI
moment the thing that everybody looks at
is that uh attention is all you need
paper outside of Google which is the
Transformer uh model and that was in
2017 and you know I mean it it comes to
moment where there are these
breakthroughs they're quiet and then
people build on them and the fact that
these drivers have become generalizable
and are able to apply the same stuff
they know City to city road to road is
extremely underrated and I think
extremely cool so I know we're both in
New York it's going to take a while for
this stuff to hit the streets of New
York like man get a robot to drive on
Ice it's not as easy I mean humans can't
do it either but um but who knows I'm
now hopeful that we'll see the day MH
yeah um I'm more hopeful than I I was in
2020 when I declared my bet n and void
because uh I couldn't I couldn't take a
a a a self-driving car into work or
whatever but um soon enough why can we
can we take a quick break and then come
back here and talk about AI crypto and
apple on the other side of this please
all right we're here on big technology
podcast with Brian McCulla of the ride
home podcast we're also on the ride home
podcast that's pretty cool Tech meme
ride home podcast which is uh which is
awesome and great daily update on what's
going on in the tech world and also
talking about premium addition of big
technology I'll throw out the URL one
more one more time it's big
technology.com if you go to the launch
post which is going to be the second uh
or first or second from the top big
technolog is going paid with deeper
coverage and new features you can get a
uh $90 for the year subscription as
opposed to our typical $15 a month or
120 for the year deal all right we'll be
back right after this and we're back
here on big technology podcast with
Brian Mulla host of the tech meme ride
home podcast CEO of ride home media uh
Brian let's talk about and and actually
you know now we're going through your
titles you're also partner in the ride
home fund that's which just focused all
about uh wait is it the ride home fund
new fund that you came there is a ride
home fund and then there's a ride home
AI fund um right so there's two flavors
original flavor and AI flavor so AI
flavor so yeah let me just re so I you
know obviously we've been we've been in
a year of exceptional promise and lots
of questions now about AI right I think
that people have well we'll talk about
crypto in the next segment but people
have a little bit of uh
maybe um PTSD from the crypto movement
where a lot of people said this could
change at all and it didn't change at
all uh and or at least yet and uh they
were like okay well now we're hearing
the same thing about artificial
intelligence and yeah I can chat with
chat GPT but is that really going to
amount to a new web let me read to you
um something from Tanya dua's uh
newsletter on LinkedIn and it's talking
about whether AI has been overhyped this
is a quote that she puts in from from uh
Matt Turk from uh first Mark you started
to see the cracks in the whole
generative AI hyp train in the past few
months it's a clear case of amar's law
where people have overestimated what a
specific technology can do in the short
term and underestimated what it can do
in the long term Brian where do you
stand on that um that we're over we're
underestimating what it can do in the
long term listen any any technology wave
there's you know the the the curve of
you know trough of delusion you
know anything that gets hyped at first
the first couple years um there's a lot
of things that will not work um by the
way chat GPT is not even a a year old
yet right so like we're so we we've
thought of this year as like the big AI
year but it's the equivalent of if I if
you and I were having a conversation
about e-commerce on the worldwide web at
the end of
1994 right so
this before Google or Amazon or anything
like what the reason that I say that in
the long term we're under estimating it
I'm not even one of these people
necessarily that believes true
artificial intelligence like silaa
computers are you know maybe might not
even be here in our lifetime but the
thing that I think that this represents
is um the true promise of computing and
that's why I say that this is
underestimated what I believe and the
reason why I raised the fund to go after
this stuff is I believe that what it the
simplest way to put it is what I think
is being promised right now is the
computer from Star Trek the Next
Generation where um you know all of
computing has been about sort of
abstracting away the complexity of
making a computer work there once was
the command line and you basically had
to know how to code to make a computer
work then came the guey and so now it's
easier you click on icons or whatever
but you still have file menus and pull
down menus on Star Trek the Next
Generation peard just says you know
computer do X Y or Z computer enhance
computer you know assess the the makeup
of that star or whatever and you don't
have to know all of the things that go
behind it to get the computer to work to
you for you when computers first came
out after World War II they called them
electronic brains because again we've
always thought of robots and Computing
Prim as humans in the same way well this
is a this is a a tool that will do my
work for me I think that
that the fact that we have spent at
least the last 50 years bringing
computers into our lives but they were
still difficult tools that you had to
master if we can abstract away all of
the things that are complex about
Computing and just say computer book me
the flx
computer uh respond to Alex and tell him
I can record the show at 2 today instead
of 4 like then essentially this is a
different Paradigm where we don't
necessarily have to look at screens I'm
not saying it's all going to be voice
commanded or whatever but I think that
we're underestimating the ability of the
true promise of computing to be manifest
within our lives normal people's lives
within less than 5 years this doesn't
even get into how it could transform
medicine um you know change how
different professions work and things
like that I think that we're
underestimating the fact that the true
promise of computing as a tool that
normal people use and rely on in their
everyday lives to make it better is it's
here it's now it's it's a paradigm shift
that I've been waiting for my whole life
and so let's talk about I mean he talks
about how it's overestimated in the
short term are we going to go through a
year or two where like people are going
to be like where's the cream filling on
this stuff like yeah
100% which is which is scary to be
investing in in a space like that can
ask about that yeah but also at the same
time um if if you gave me the choice of
investing in a sort of Green Field wide
openen new this is a new paradigm I
would take that all day long like there
are other in you know investing in SAS
companies for the last decade at least
has almost been a spreadsheet like thing
like you see how much how much users
grow and like sort of how the revenue
grows you can plot it on a graph and see
like okay here's the valuation of this
thing it's more interesting to me to
invest in a space where it's
like think of how crazy it was that the
the mobile phone came around and the
things that got disrupted were taxis and
and hotel rentals right like that's
there's no way that you can plot for
that um it's more interesting to me to
invest in a space that is green field
having said that
uh Chris and I started the fund uh just
at the beginning of the summer by the
way it's still open if anyone are is
interested in um investing in the fund
you can find out at Rome fun.com um our
our thesis has been to go after the
productization of stuff so like what
what is the Airbnb or the Uber of this
Paradigm Shift um I would say by our
definition we've only made one of those
types of Investments and all of the
other Investments right now have sort of
been infrastructure plays by which I
mean who is creating the scaffolding
around what this new level of compute is
um we've kicked the tires on dozens and
dozens of these product you know AI for
architecture AI for law or whatever and
they don't seem
defensible um and so I will tell you if
I'm being quite honest um we haven't
found the Airbnb of this moment yet what
we are investing in is hey if you're
Ford or American Airlines and you're you
want to deploy a chatbot or a large
language model you've got to be able to
do it safely or if you're on Wall Street
you've got to make sure that your
proprietary data is secure so that's
what I mean by infrastructure there's a
lot of plays right now around allowing
this moment to flourish and um so again
that's kind of like investing in 1994
like if you invested in every website at
the time you might not have done well
but if you invested in the underlying
Tech you might done you did great okay
so I have a question for you about that
uh what do you think about and I'm
writing about this this week so uh for
listeners if you're a journalist don't
take this idea but uh what do you think
about this emerging fight between
Facebook and open AI I mean you have
open AI super open no sorry not no open
in the name pretty closed in the
technology you have meta U pumping out
these open source algorithms by the way
like not signing on to any of these we
need to stop AI progress while opening
seems to want to shuts out of it yes and
then you have open a with this big
impressive generalizable bot chat GPT
and you have meta in this uh moment with
all these personal more more specific
use case style Bots um that they're
releasing talk talk me through this
fight like how and and is it like it's
kind of like an underrated conflict
point between the two you think Alex if
it's almost like you and I are more
professional and more organized and we
had thought about cuz I thought of this
as a topic but we never we didn't
coordinate on this but I'm glad you
brought it up cuz I have some serious
thoughts on this here's what you got to
understand in a sense open AI is already
the incumbent okay because if if you
think of these large language models as
a new sort of as I'm saying Computing
Paradigm the the key behind them is the
secret sauce of what the data is trained
on what the large language models are
trained on but also the key is is what
they call like temperature and basically
imagine you have to you you you train a
large language model and you're like
well it doesn't work that well so turn
this knob three points and turn and
slide that dial 70% or whatever it's
fine-tuning okay that's the secret sauce
for for making things work and and you
can it's not just for accuracy but it's
also for making it cheaper and and and
stuff like that okay so open AI in
previous models they released what the
models were trained on and like how how
the the the inputs worked and how like
I'm saying they fiddled with the knobs
and the dials to to get the secret sauce
they're not doing that anymore um and so
the reason is is essentially because
they had the first big win on this right
and so if you're a meta or someone
coming from behind open AI or chat GPT
is the the fastest um product to uh uh
become successful of all time what it
100 million users until threads until
threads yeah can't count out threads but
well who knows maybe they're both lost
users but sorry go ahead so what you
have to understand is that anyone else
now is like
well there's a scenario where the
biggest model will always win because
it's the got the most data behind it
it's the best trained and so either
everyone can just follow in open AI wake
and be like ours is just as good it's
sort of like a Google versus uh bing
thing or they have to differentiate and
not just in the market but in terms of
developers So Meta does what Google
always used to do uh which was open
source anything that they did um and the
reason that they're doing that is
there's a scenario
where if you can let a th flowers bloom
and a thousand different uh Chris and I
I think talked about this on your show
like the the AI varietal thing like if
you if you have a thousand different
models and this one is trained slightly
differently than that one it gets
different outputs like that's the the
sort of way that you can differentiate
meta or has has obviously an incentive
to do that because um open AI got ahead
of them you could argue that Google will
have similar incentives but one of I was
at a AI conference two weeks ago and it
was all discussion about open source and
the let me let me give you the negatives
about open source first is people are
concerned about well you know you throw
a large language model out there that
anyone can get off of GitHub or hugging
face or whatever and then you know
terrorists can use it to do bad things
um uh people can use it to create
misinformation or X Y and Z but the the
sense is is that the open-source stuff
is we're never going to be able to
innovate and create the Airbnb of this
moment if the the actual models are
behind this firewall of open Ai and they
don't tell you how it works because then
all you're left with is a scenario where
people can build businesses that are
just thin rappers based off of Open AI
apis okay so if people are excited about
this moment and they want to grab hold
of the the future of it they feel like
they need they need it to be open
sourced so that they can own the models
okay and one of the things that I said
to a lot of the startups that I talked
to at this conference is you have to
understand that not only does meta want
this to work that way the VC class of
which obviously I'm a part wants it to
work this way too because that's
again if you're the biggest VC firms in
the world your sequoia or or your
andreon horowitz's or whomever even if
they're already invested in open AI they
need an ecosystem to grow up around this
stuff otherwise again open AI or just
the biggest model wins and so I said to
a lot of the startups that I met there
is I'm glad that everybody is um
exploring open source for this
technology but if you're being pushed to
do it keep it in mind that the
incentives by the people that are
pushing you to do it are their own meta
wants to un unseat open AI the VC class
wants to create a bunch of startups that
will be the next open AI so I think that
people are excited about open source
being the the the the future of AI but I
would caution a lot of people to
understand why a lot of people are
shouting that right now well let's Okay
so let's go then one level deeper why
does want to unseat open AI in your
opinion I mean everybody's going to want
to in the sense that if you believe like
I do that this is a this is a new
compute Paradigm in the sense of how
you're going to interact with compute
that works for um what do what does meta
do their social network essentially I
mean really their business is selling
ads but you can throw AI into that but
So Meta needs to control the fact that
what if 5 years from now social networks
are are really maybe you don't talk to
your friends as much as you talk to your
favorite bot that you've maybe created
their personality you've trained it on
everything that you've got on your phone
or your computer and so it knows you and
so the bot becomes your friend or what
if five years from now social networking
is all of our Bots interacting with each
other on social media or in VR or in AR
meta does not want to be in a position
where the only way they can do that with
a high degree of of accuracy and
efficacy is to have to Ping somebody
else's apis because again they're
they'll be in the position that they
have been with with like the iPhone and
Android all these years is they don't
own the platform that their service
fundamentally sits on that's why meta
needs it um but also uh one of the
things that I've said on my show is that
you know meta is looking at what open AI
is doing and is thinking how did open AI
create these products they trained it on
the internet they trained it on users
content who has more user content than
meta from their family of apps there is
a scenario where within two years meta
has the best llm because it has access
to more meta will shut off open ai's
ability to be trained like you're
already seeing Reddit shut off uh open
AI from training on on their content
like who's in a better position to be
the the the the dethroner of open AI
than is they' they' they've got the phds
they've got the science they've got the
patents and they have the content that
you can train this this next Generation
technology on think there's any level of
um Envy in terms of how Zuckerberg uh
feels about Sam
Alman Zuckerberg to my sense of him has
Envy for anybody that I mean Bill Gates
had this too anybody that's successful
in a field that he thinks he could be
successful in yeah he's like why not me
um
but I also think that um he's in a
better position now because uh you know
the the the phras is is that the leaders
often end up with a bunch of arrows in
their back um because the two the two
companies that are best position in my
mind to challenge open
AI are meta and Google I mean Google
created the technology that allows the
current attention-based uh generative AI
uh Transformer based AI to to to happen
um but Facebook has been had a decade of
the best AI mins under under their roof
as well and then like I said they have
the content that they can they can train
this stuff on so um if if someone's
going to Dethrone if open AI is an also
ran within three years I bet it'll be
meta I my money would be on meta that
would be Throne them and then maybe
Google SL alphabet Oh interesting yeah
okay great so let's just do uh um let's
go lightning round through our next two
topics crypto and apple uh Apple's new
new launch event uh one of the things
that you wrote to me while we were
talking discussing about what we're
going to talk is is wither crypto I mean
to me it seems pretty obvious I mean
crypto is is is disgraced in many ways
maybe there's going to be something
emerged from the rubble I have to point
out that today on October 24th Bitcoin
just surged to $35,000 a coin no you
didn't know that yes because apparently
um everyone believes that the first
Bitcoin ETF is is uh about to be
announced um so yeah for the Bitcoin hit
a high the highest it's been um in 18
months um now bit you can make the
argument that Bitcoin is almost a
separate story than the larger crypto
ecosystem I don't know that salana has
come back to it high of 18 months ago or
whatever or ethereum but um so
having said that and so if we look like
idiots if you're listening to this three
months from now because crypto all of a
sudden is $100,000 a coin or a Bitcoin
is um what we're talking about is two
years ago when we were on like the
Twitter spaces and the clubhouse rooms
or whatever we were all talking about
crypto and nfts and all the web 3
goodness and stuff and I think that
you're alluding to this the sense that I
get as well which is like the energy has
gone out of that they're still the same
people that are in the space I'm not
saying they've evaporated but the
overall energy oh some of them are in
jail
that that's true uh do you agree with me
that you feel like that the energy or at
least the chatter that was there around
crypto um this year sort of dimmed like
it we felt like it was starting to do at
the beginning of the year oh yeah I mean
if you think about pandemic like zero
interest rate crypto versus now like
that was a fully inflated balloon and
this is a sad piece of bursted rubber
well let me let me let me again caveat
this by saying if you think Alex and I
are just talking about price that's not
what we're talking about because again
two years ago three years ago there were
new
ideas and as much as people did and
still do laugh at things like nfts or um
you know fintech around like again the
things that blew up and people went to
jail for which is like all of these
crypto lending things that were you know
giving you 18% returns and turned out to
be Ponzi schemes or whatever but there
was a period of time where there was
this flowering of a ton of new ideas um
and I don't see like a new idea around
lending or um you know um putting
putting your uh mortgage on the on the
blockchain and stuff like that like
there was a time when that was every day
and like I don't hear that now maybe I'm
not listening in the right spaces um
that's because people like their houses
and they don't want to to lose them
sorry I don't know I feel I I guess I'm
I'm just getting out of these SPF uh
trial uh hearings and I'm feeling salty
yes well all right I I get it um and and
and one of the things is is that um the
the people that used to yell at me on my
show when I would do two stories or
three stories of crypto in a day and
they're like what is this the crypto
ride home and I was like listen that it
was for a Time the biggest story in Tech
absolutely um and I me I can go entire
weeks without mentioning a crypto story
now so to the degree that that Alex or I
are a barometer of this sort of stuff
for the broader Tech thing I I think
that yeah right now it's a it's another
lull I mean maybe it'll come back uh for
all we know I don't discount the the
idea that blockchain technology might
end up being I mean it is being used in
many different places and there's going
to be some Innovation that comes out of
it but whether it reinvents the web uh
or or reinvents the way that we do
things it
seems questionable at best okay last
Last Story Apple just announced or if
you're listening on Saturday earlier
this week announced they have a new
event happening Halloween Eve called
scary fast and the idea is that they're
going to announce a new Max and um Mac
has been one of those products that have
been troubled for them I'm curious do
you speaking of things that used to be
exciting and now
are seemingly not do you think there's
going to be any Buzz at all I mean it's
interesting that they're even announcing
it like seven days before before this
event happens well also it's
interesting they've we uh I I you know
work with the editors at techm and we
were trying to look they've never done
the the events at 5:00 p.m. on Monday
they usually do Tuesday events they
never do events in the evening that we
can we couldn't find at least in the
history of tech M when they had done a
5:00 p.m. eastern time at night event
event um and then you're saying Max what
we've been speculating in the slack is
is scary fast means that we think that
there it's going to be about the M3 chip
because if you think about it even if
they were just going to upgrade even if
they were going to upgrade the the Mac
Pro Line or whatever and the rumors
initially were oh they're going to
upgrade the iMac line cuz the iMac line
uh as it exists right now is two and a
half years old I think they could do
that just by doing a press release and
like you know uh updating the store the
fact that they're doing a special event
at a special time and it's called scary
fast says to me that they are excited to
tell us about the M3 and they must have
something that they think is significant
to tell us about how those chips perform
now they'll probably also announce
putting them into new Maxs as well but I
think that what we're going to see and
this is claim shouter for you know if
you listen to this after Monday I I
think it's it's all about the
M3 well I would be stoked for that I
mean even though that the juice has come
out of these events a little bit I'm on
like a 5-year-old desktop at this point
and com having that compared to the
Apple uh the MacBook Pro with the M2
Chip it's just it feels so slow like I
have a great setup with the desktop and
I just find myself wanting to work on
the laptop all the time so I don't know
man if this is what's coming down then I
guess sign me up for these new machines
M3 here we go baby I'm going to I'm
going to quote from our resident Mac
expert in inside the tech M slack I
won't name him however um uh I don't
think they'd have a weird event time
like this if there were just big chassis
form factor changes it also feels weird
if it's just m M3 refreshes across the
board so I really don't know what to
expect but something tells me either
it's something bigger than those two
things or those two things combined will
be bigger than what we're all
expecting scare me Tim Cook
scare me I'm ready for it all right
Brian thank you so much for the time
this was great always great to speak
with you thank you Alex and um
congratulations on big technology
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so thank you Alex all right everybody
thanks so much for listening thank you
big technology listeners thank you Tech
M right home listeners thank you
LinkedIn for having me as part of your
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technology premium a try and uh and uh
again it's a pleasure bringing you this
show stay tuned Friday Ronan Roy will be
on we're going to talk about the latest
in Tech especially Tech earnings this
week big week of earnings I'm preparing
to go on CNBC to talk about Amazon and
others on Thursday so we'll break that
down and then next Wednesday an
interview with Teedra maakana the co-ceo
of weo more self-driving car talk um
plenty of new details really fun
conversation hope you stay tuned for
that and we will see you next time on
big technology
podcast