Bold Predictions For Tech and AI in 2025 — With Casey Newton

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2025-01-05

YouTube video id: 19eVvTPFKrk

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19eVvTPFKrk

let's look back at 2024 and predict
what's going to happen in 2025 in our
annual episode with Casey Newton of
platformer and the hardfork podcast
that's coming up right after this
welcome to Big technology podcast a show
for cool-headed nuance conversation of
the tech world and Beyond well it's
January 1st so as we do every year yes
we're doing this for the fourth year
running we're going to look back at the
previous year and predict what's going
to happen in this coming year in 2025
and joining us as always to do it is
Casey Newton of platformer and hard Fork
Casey great to see you welcome to the
show Alex let me be the first to wish
you a happy New Year happy New Year man
here we are 202 wonderful to be here in
2025 I know I mean we're recording this
in 2024 but it is very don't tell them
that they don't need to know that but we
we are um we're manifesting the future
together right now we're manifesting
that's true we are looking back at
2024 it is interesting because it was a
year of tremendous progress
technologically and we spoke about this
a little bit last year about how we're
starting to see some real Tech progress
as opposed to like um repackaging or you
know new things that we talk about on
social media that are't actually
technological advances so we saw big
Tech progress in
2024 and that is of course in the world
of AI first and foremost uh but I think
I've been surprised when I think about
the big picture of 2024
how how difficult it still was for
people to make make use of that
technology we're still talking about
what the ROI is of this more than 2
years after chat GPT was released and
towards the end of the year you also did
a piece talking about how the people who
say AI is fake and it sucks aren't
really correct look what it's doing but
actually that they have a leg to stand
on sort of says something about where AI
has gone which is that the tech has been
cool but we still don't really know
exactly what to do with it when you
think about the totality of dollars
invested so I want to get your
perspective when you look back at 2024
does that seem right and why do you
think that
happened yeah I mean I agree with some
stuff in there you know my starting
point is that just over two years ago
chat GPT didn't exist uh recently open
aai told us that chat GPT had 300
million users a week so to go from 0 to
300 million is really impressive
and almost never happens right and along
the way they've started to generate huge
amounts of Revenue and there are those
who say well but they're not profitable
yet Casey and therefore they probably
never will be and I just find this and
sort of very naive and sort of
ahistorical you know you look at the
history of Silicon Valley and it is a
story of companies that were deeply
unprofitable for a long time that are
now some of the biggest companies in the
world world right I never thought Uber
was going to turn a profit uh Uber is
now a profitable company some people
will say well they still haven't made
back the money that they took in from
investors and like fair point but I
think they're probably going to get
there right so when I look at AI I see
something that yes is very expensive to
train but when you look at the fact that
it's a general purpose technology and
that we are finding more and more things
to do with it I do believe that at least
one of these companies is going to make
a massive amount out of one of these
botels right so I would say if I had to
put a bow on what you're labeling 2024
as maybe the year of continuing to
figure it out I don't I know it doesn't
have a catchy slogan style ring to it
but that seems to be what you're saying
yeah I mean I also think that we saw
real progress on the technology side
what we did not see was the sort of leap
in capabilities that we saw from gpt2 to
GPT 3 and then gpt3 to GPT 4 and I think
something that grabbed a lot of people's
attention this year was the fact that uh
what are sometimes called the scaling
laws which is the ability to improve a
large language model just by increasing
the size of the model the amount of data
that you run through it and the amount
of computing power that you put through
it that apparently started to see some
diminishing returns and some people said
aha the whole thing is the House of
Cards it's about to collapse butong the
way people started finding all these new
what they call scaling vectors so for
example you can take the model that you
already had and you could say hey why
don't you think a little bit longer
before you give me an answer turns out
that greatly improves the result right
so just because one of these sets of
scaling laws has started to diminish
doesn't mean that there aren't going to
be others and it's why over the long
term I'm bullish on the idea that again
at least one of these companies is going
to figure out the right combination of
things to deliver something really
powerful and that's 2024 so let's go on
to 2025 and start our predictions and
we're going to talk about AI but we'll
also talk about a bunch of different
technology and we'll talk about
antitrust so if you want to hear about
what's going on in those areas stay
tuned but in context thinking about the
fact that okay we had that year in 2024
some progress some questions do you
think we're going to see a giant leap in
2025 like you talked about those step
changes when we thought about what
happened last year is that coming so
based on the the conversations that I've
had with Executives of the AI Labs it
feels like people are trying to set
expectations for more linear progress
next year I do think we are going to see
one really notable set of new
capabilities in what they call AI agents
so an agent is essentially a computer
that is using itself anthropic was the
first of the big labs to put out a demo
of this uh Google put out their own demo
um uh the week that we're recording this
and I expect that open a is going to you
know uh release their own pretty soon um
if you look at the demos that have been
released so far they're like pretty
janky like the computer is still
figuring out how to use a mouse the
computer is still figuring out like how
to navigate a web browser it's kind of
like watching an 8-year-old try to learn
to use a computer but our experience
with these same sets of Technologies in
other context has been that they learn
very quickly and so you know my
prediction about like what is next year
in AI it is all of the big labs and
platforms showing off what their agents
can do businesses trying to figure out
is there anything in there that is
powerful and reliable enough that we can
actually use it to start automating some
processes inside our company and that's
going to unlock some stuff I don't think
it is going to feel like AGI I think it
is going to feel like unnecessary
uh difficult but ultimately impressive
extension of what AI is already doing
today so I'm also putting together my
predictions and I think my big
technology story will also be out about
this by the time this podcast goes live
uh I'm not fully committed to this but
one note that I've written down is that
AI agent Buzz Fades and I can't tell you
why exactly I believe that it probably
goes counter to what all these research
houses are saying but I think in a
nutshell the reason why I would make
that prediction and I'm open to the fact
that I'm going to be wrong is that the
use cases are tough to find sort of like
what do we trust the computer to do for
us and now in an area like a B2B
software company when it comes to like
fetching things or you know moving one
job from one system to another maybe
that we maybe we see some Asian progress
but my hunch says the hype around them
Fades what do you think well I mean let
me give you some examples for what this
thing could do right let's say that you
um uh gave Gmail uh you put some sort of
agent inside Gmail and you said okay
gmail find every invitation in my inbox
from the last month and show me those
and uh and and and then from there I'm
going to tell you which of these things
I want to go to and which of these
things I don't want to go to and you
write the acceptances and the replies
and I just click Send that's like
actually possible with the technology
that we have today nobody has built the
product but like we already have that
that would be hugely useful to me if I
have that agent go through my inbox and
say like show me everyone who has asked
for a response from me about something
that would be very powerful right so I
just think that there are some like core
productivity use cases um that people
are really going to like you know I
already use AI as a kind of thinking
partner um you know there's like a kind
of classic things that happens in Tech
reporting where maybe you're writing
about a new paper that's coming out or
there's a new uh product that's being
released and the company that you're
talking to will like send you some
materials about it um I now upload that
directly into a chat bot um I as I
essentially interview the PDF before I
interview the person um after I do that
interview I'll say like hey I'm actually
going to talk to these people you know
in a couple hours what are some things
to talk to them about some of the
questions are awful and I would never
ask some of them are good but mostly
it's just like a great first draft right
now I'm putting a lot of like intention
and effort into doing that but like you
can imagine a world where it's a little
bit more on Rails and I say like hi
agent I'm writing a story about this
here's the PDF you know all the
questions I usually ask like you know
the kind of stories that I write give me
a little bit of a template for this and
like essentially prepare a briefing
document for me about the story I'm
about to write again like we already
have the technology for all this stuff
like we just really need to build the
product so
I predict next year you're going to see
technological progress but the question
mark is like how effectively are these
people able to productize these
experiences yeah and I do something
similar uh I should probably start where
you start but often times when I'm
writing something I'll write the story
and then I'll drop the finished story in
with all the primary sources and be like
what did I miss like here's the
transcript of the interviews I did yeah
there must have been some points that I
didn't include and it can pick it out
pretty well that's great yeah it's it's
getting really good at that sort of
thing and like the reason I really like
that example is you know I we're talking
at a time when I've you know been
besieged by haters calling me a shill um
and the thing that they will often say
is like this stuff like it just does not
work it constantly hallucinates you
can't rely on it for everything and if
the way that you want to use it is as a
search engine to do all your
factchecking you're absolutely right
it's going to be a terrible fact Checker
you cannot rely on it you have to go
elsewhere to like verify your facts but
most of particularly people like you and
me Alex who are like solo entrepreneurs
we don't have a newsroom full of
colleagues to help us think through
every angle this stuff is actually
really good at that right you're not
relying on it for the facts you're
saying help me think about this thing
and if you don't see the value in that
well I don't know what to tell you
brother yeah no it's valuable I I also
think it's pretty nice for grammar
correction like I canceled my grammarly
subscription and now I use Claude and
can I give you a prediction grammarly
dead by end of 2025 how does that
company still exist R I don't know and
honestly it's also a company that makes
its product worse every year but we
could go on and on that they had a great
browser extension and they I think you
know it's always about what the company
prioritizes and I think they wanted you
to go to grammarly.com so instead of
being able to work inside your docs you
copy and paste it for a more robust
service so they killed the browser
extension that was really useful or they
didn't kill it they just diminished it
and it's like what am I doing here I you
know it's a step I don't need but Claude
um I'll be like just tell me where my
usage is weird and it'll be like you
wrote exits instead of exist which by
the way I do in every story I write and
I'm like okay great well I'm going to
put exist now so that's helpful yeah I
do that too now I will say I also asked
Claude to edit my column and um if it
gives me six suggestions for like you
know spelling or grammatical mistakes
three of them will be fake they will
like it'll say it'll say you did this
thing and then I go back and I read the
copy I'm like no I didn't so I you know
I always want to acknowledge like that
the we haven't finished building any of
this yet some of it is like really
crappy but I like it is just in my
nature to look for the ways in which it
works as opposed to the things that it
is not good at it's a true gaslighter
that's the truth and I think that that
might never change yeah if I had a wish
that I would put under the you know
product building tree I don't know if
that actually works as a metaphor but
I'm going to roll with it it would be
that the people building AI built for
more normal use cases and not for like
Tim Cooks use case like that's my number
one complaint with apple intelligence or
like I pick up my phone it's summarizing
my text messages and my emails as if I I
mean i' get a fair amount but I'm not
getting like Apple CEO level and I could
see Tim Cook being like you summarized a
100 emails that is amazing that is
incredible whereas for me it's like you
know summarizes two or three and it
takes all the personality out of a text
message so if if you want a a year
review thought for me on that what I
would say is Apple intelligence flop of
the Year oh my gosh but but honestly I
love it this is not mad me this is not
me being mad calling it flop this is me
celebrating what a flop it is because I
you know I'm in like a very active group
chat and you know the boys are sending
me the memes all day long and it used to
be in the little preview window I would
see the meme I would see the tweet I
would see the joke now four times a day
I get my little summary and it's like
link shared to x.com meme disgust and
I'm like I truly cannot imagine a more
worthless addition to my life but it
makes me laugh every single time so
Apple intelligence you are a complete
flop and I hope you never change I mean
to me one of the funniest things about
Apple intelligence is just how mean it
could be um where like someone gets a
breakup text it like goes this is uh
something that people have been
circulating on Twitter it just goes well
she's not interested
or like yeah even when I get an email
where someone's like sorry I can't do
the podcast it's like invitation
rejected like come on Apple intelligence
do you think there's a second life for
this product in 2025 or is it sort oh
sure I mean they're they're not going to
give up on it like presumably they also
know it sucks because they use it um you
know I think it was interesting they um
they did a big sort of sit down with
wired like all the sort of Apple sea
Suite uh in December and the the point
of it was to convey the idea um that hey
look we're not behind on this we were
just very patient we were biting our
time and when the moment was right we we
struck right and like now we've like
really nailed it and it's like that's
like a lovely idea but it's not true
like you can just use this stuff it's
like you know so I think where they're
right is that the mainstream is either
like not ready for this doesn't care
about it or hates it like some
combination of those three things
they're right about that and that's
actually like a L valid reason for them
to be going slower than everyone else in
AI but you know if you're like a tech
nerd like we are and you want to live in
the future and you want to like use
tools to improve your life you would not
be using any of the Apple intelligence
stuff cuz it like it truly is aimed at
somebody who is two years behind like
the state-ofthe-art yeah we talk about
this on the show all the time it still
can't do basic things like pull a flight
out of apple mail and tell you when it's
leaving so yeah shame on them shame on
them
and I'm not I'm gonna take it one level
further take it further uh say something
after disgrace because disgrace yeah
yeah I'm going to go for the second
disgrace which is Vision Pro and oh yeah
you know we there was a i you predicted
last year that the Vision Pro was going
to usher in a moment where people are
going to take mixed reality a little bit
more seriously I did did I say that or
was my voice deep faked we're going to
have to look into that uh I think yes
let's go with the Deep fake uh what what
happen happened
there so this was an interesting one I
was wrong in my prediction basically
what my prediction for this year was
that Vision Pro would not be a runaway
hit but that they would sell enough to
justify continued investment in the
device and the most recent projections
are that they were going to sell
something like 420,000 of them this year
that puts them at close to $1.5 billion
dollar in Revenue that is a rounding
error for every other Apple product and
so you could see that as it being a
complete flop on the other hand if any
other company exploring a new category
um released a product that generated $
1.5 billion in revenue for the first
version that would be enough to justify
continued investment in it right so on
one hand yes not a runaway hit um I
think where they really failed was to
nail a daily use case uh but by the way
everyone else who has built a headset
has failed in this if the use case is
not playing a game um but the hardware
is really cool man they did some cool
stuff the eye tracking very cool the
visual Fidelity of the display very cool
would I enjoy watching a movie in it
like probably so they did a lot right
and I think like the version of that
thing that that exists 5 years from now
probably will be super compelling I am
going to admit that every now and again
when I have a visitor that comes into
Brooklyn I say why don't we go to the
Apple Store there won't be a line let's
try out these Vision pros and they're
blown away every time but they're just
like I would not buy that wow I want to
come visit Alex ctz and he's like what
what can we do we're in New York City
what can we do I take me to the top of
the Empire State Building you're like no
we're going to the Apple Store I need a
lightning we know how to have fun here
we can go on a slack line in mixed
reality that's even more exciting than
the building itself this is great
excited they are planning smaller
cheaper devices next year do you think
those hit or is it more the same so th
uh I'm I'm somewhat skeptical about this
cuz like I don't actually think the
problem with the Vision Pro was that it
was too expensive like apple customers
are rich Apple customers were ready to
spend $3500 on it um obviously like I
you know I I yes there are many people
that just cannot and will not spend
$3,500 on a device but like if you look
for like in like adjusted for inflation
how much an Apple laptop cost the ' 80s
like the division Pro is not actually
that expensive right so the reason
people didn't buy this thing was that
there was just nothing to do with it
right it's like it's like the Oculus
headsets like you buy it you try it out
and then you're like this thing's kind
of a hassle and there's really nothing
it can't do that I can't do more easily
on my laptop or to the extent that it
can do things that I can't do on my
laptop I don't really care about those
things that much and so you put it in a
drawer and you never think about it
again so if you told me like hey great
news they're making a Vision Pro that is
exactly as good good as the one that
came out in 2024 but now it's going to
cost half as much it's going to be ,750
plus tax I'd be like that's actually not
that compelling because it still just
can't do that much stuff so they really
need to work on the let it do more stuff
and you know I would note their
relationships with developers are like
really bad right now they can't even get
freaking Netflix to make an app for this
thing right so there is like a lot they
need to do on the business and
partnership side um but you know I'm
some skeptical that they're going to do
that cuz they love their App Store
Monopoly and they would just rather just
live off the fat of the App Store than
like rebuild those relationship with
developers yeah it's amazing what so
many years of a 15 or 30% tax just to
exist will do to your relationship with
developers yeah yeah it it it really is
um and it yeah I don't know I'm curious
if if we ever see a reckoning for that
like I imagine at some point that we
will and it'll be like very satisfying
to observe but man is it taking a long
time incoming so there are some other AR
platforms that we started to see this
year you and I both got a chance to try
the meta Orion device which is a pair of
glasses that you put on your face and
you know will take you into mixed
reality without the big headset thing I
mean this probably isn't a 2025 thing
maybe it is I don't know do you think
that we're going to see these things get
any traction this coming year so my
understanding is that the Orion headset
is like multiple years out and that when
it arrives it will won't actually even
be as good as the glasses that we tried
on this year because in order to make
the cost work they're just going to have
to like rip out some of the components
so that is super unfortunate and you
know I I
mean AR glasses has been like when did
the first Snapchat spectacles come out
like a 2013 or something um that I truly
feel like I've been waiting so long for
these things to get good and like I'm
going to be close to retirement before
like Orion actually like arrives but all
that said and I said this to the meta
folks when I was there Orion is what I
wanted the Vision Pro to be very high
fidelity visual display very easy to
wear it doesn't make me nauseous the way
a VR headset does had had obvious
utility you could just sort of walk
around the world wearing these things on
your face you could take a video call
and and sort of you know see the person
and the lenses of your glasses it was
cool again you know our the whole
conversation we just had about the
Vision Pro is about what it can't do
when I think about the Orion glasses I
think about what it can do and how
enjoyable it was to use so I think
they've really got something there the
problem is just that the glasses are
like extraordinarily expensive and they
cannot deliver a consumer version of
that for multiple years now another one
of your predictions last year was that
Google catches up with open AI on the
foundation model game we're going to
give that a ding that that worked out
well um a good Ding and uh it it has
been interesting watching the way that
Google has caught up and even surpassed
openai in a number of different fronts
uh in the AI World in 2024 they've
released notebook LM which is a great
product they had a bunch of releases
towards the end of the year including
Gemini 2.0 and this research assistant
that can look at dozens of different
sources and compile research reports and
by the way their foundational models are
pretty good they of course have search
as a as a I think a continuous liability
where people will try the perplexities
of the world maybe they'll try chat GPC
chap GPT search and then you're like
well what's going to happen to the bread
and butter of the Google business so I
think that sets it up for a very
interesting year in 2025 where it's the
narrative coming in to last year might
have been Google's behind Google screwed
now it's like Google's competing Google
might be in the lead by the end of the
year but what exactly is going to happen
to the company so what do you think is
going to happen this coming year yeah so
I'm like
I of course feel good that I actually
managed to get a prediction right like
if you look at chatbot Arena which is
the site that measures the performance
of the large language models as we
record this the Gemini models are at the
top so that's a sort of win for them on
the other
hand the quality of the models does not
match my experience of using Gemini in
Google products right the three big
models that I use and pay for every
single week some of them every day some
of them many times a day are Chachi BT
Claude and Gemini of those I would say
Gemini has clearly been the worst it had
some really Rocky launches this year the
launch of imagery where it you know was
mostly refusing to draw white founding
fathers was this huge you know black eye
and they had to remove image generation
for months and months and months they
had the the notorious uh launch of AI
overviews where they were telling people
to eat rocks and put glue on their pizza
and so there's just this disconnect
where the models uh do perform very well
on benchmarks and the products kind of
suck so that is the the circle that they
need to square and I don't I mean I I
think that they can do it you know it's
really notable to me that notebook LM
which is by far the best and most
interesting of the AI products that I
think that they have released so far was
made by a skunk Works team in a
forgotten corner of Google that
struggled to get a lot of support and
then went viral because they managed to
create something really cool and then as
soon as it went viral most of the
founding team of notebook LM quit to go
to a startup so it's like that's like
Google's real problem you know if I were
them I'm like I would just go find the
best product people in the world and
just be like go nuts in Gmail and Google
Drive like make some stuff that is truly
freaking useful to people because if
they could do that that is when I would
feel like they were sort of recapturing
the lead because as far as I'm concerned
all the cool stuff in AI is happening at
open Ai and anthropic and with the AI
models being good but the products being
bad is that just like a post training
thing or like how do you end up in that
situation that's hard to do well I have
a conspiracy theory which is um you know
uh kind of uh not great to be sharing on
a podcast but I'm going I'm going to do
it anyway which is I think Google is
teaching to the test you know what I
mean like I think that they know what
the benchmarks are and they train the
models to be really good at the
benchmarks and then they they train the
models and they come out they say look
it does really well on the benchmarks
and then you just try to use it for
other stuff and it kind of sucks um you
know on my podcast uh hard fork in
December we had a conversation about
what my co-host Ken ruse calls The Cult
of Claude And if you look in chatbot
Arena Claude is not the number one model
but people have like started to develop
this very warm Humane relationship with
it because of the way that it responds
to questions the things it notices the
probing questions that it asks you in
return and to me that's the difference
between like teaching to the test and
making a great product is like you know
Google's really good at the former but
but just not at the ladder yeah I'll
confess I have that sort of relationship
with Claude yeah like what are you using
it for I use it for so many things I
mean like all the writing applications
that we spoke about but also it's become
uh my diet coach where and listeners of
the show will know this but I speak with
it every day about uh the diet plan I've
given it some rules to um help me help
steer me it grades me every day it
counts calories uh it gives
encouragement my wife uh talks to Claud
on her spare time and is like all right
like I'm thinking of cooking this uh do
you think it aligns with these values
and just decides what to do and then
adjust recipes based off of it and it's
working uh not to the point where I'm
like going to write a story yet but it's
definitely working like there's progress
there so I think that's some really
powerful stuff like that is powerful
it's pretty cool it's pretty cool yeah I
I think um the the craziest thing that I
did was I ran out of space in the chat
and was like well there goes that cuz
that memory I'm going to start again but
I just copied the chat and then I put it
in a new Cloud chat and was like this is
your memory let's pick up and it was
able to which was unbelievable
interesting so you could end up with
these I guess endless um conversations
and this is a months long relationship
with the bot and I look forward to
speaking with it in the morning when I
do well I look forward to braging to it
when I look when I do poorly I'm like
well it's going to let me down easily so
I'll tell it anyway toally PR cool and
can you imagine having that same
conversation with Gemini no definitely
not yeah this what I'm talking about
this what I'm talking about so we've
done Apple we've done uh Google and
let's talk about open AI Microsoft do
you think that relationship is cons you
know still I mean it's obviously still
consequential but I guess there's all
sorts of question marks about where it
goes in the coming year what do you
think is going to happen with those two
I mean my like possibly contrarian take
is like they just kind of muddle through
like that's kind of what I think that
they're going to do open AI needs
Microsoft for the compute the data
centers the like infrastructure of
making AI they're not going to go out
and build all of that next year they
can't go as fast as they want to if they
don't have Microsoft in their corner and
Microsoft needs open AI for the tech and
the product like the Microsoft stuff
that is being done
independently is okay like you know
maybe co-pilot seems to be good if if
you want to write code outside that it
kind of just feels like they're nowhere
to me so they're going to continue to
look to open Ai and tout this
Partnership of like hey look we have by
you know many estimates the leading AI
lab in our corner and we're using their
stuff in like in uh you know uh 365 and
all of our other consumer products I
think they're just going to find a way
to work together now are they also going
to be betraying each other continuously
throughout next year in ways big and
small like yeah probably so like I think
it's like just going to be a fun story
um but I think they both need each other
so I'm thinking through again what what
I'm going to write in this prediction
story and one might be that Mustafa
Suliman who runs AI at Microsoft leaves
and there's already already been some
reports of clashes between him and the
open AI team and I think you're totally
right that Microsoft needs open AI for
the models the products and if that's
what you need you actually kind of need
less of a strong leader you need more
integrators than Visionaries yes I think
that is right you know you can read
about uh some clashes Mustafa sulaman
had at his previous companies this
person seems to leave a bit of drama in
his wake so yeah that's like a that's
like a good medium confidence prediction
I would say okay so now I'm thinking
about meta and usually the what we
predict is like what's going to happen
with meta products threads and stuff
like that maybe we can get to that but I
think the big question for meta is
actually about a competitor which is
whether Tik Tac actually gets banned and
there's like varying degrees of
confidence and I think this is going to
be in everybody's 2025 prediction list
especially because in 19 days there
there may be a decision to ban it or not
um but what happens to tiktock to me is
going to be a very interesting story
earlier in the year what do you think
yeah I mean you could just sort of see
it in the stock price when the the uh
Court ruling came out in December
investors were like oh yeah Tik tok's
going to get banned and uh the spoils
will go to meta and also Google for
Youtube um it would be like a a shift in
the culture you know Tik Tok is an
engine of culture in the United States
it is where memes are born Legends are
created it drives music consumption for
all of that to just disappear overnight
like that energy is going to want to go
somewhere and it's GNA primarily go to
reals and shorts maybe there are some
crumbs left for SNAP which you know
offers a similar product um but that's
like really big and it is just free
money for Mark Zuckerberg so uh yeah I'm
sure that's what uh everyone at meta is
asking for for Christmas this is my
hottest of all takes which is that the
app stores are forced to ban Tik tock on
January 19th and then Trump day one says
put it back so they're it's gone for
like a half hour feasible yeah could
could be you know when the when he was
as we record this the last time he was
asked about it uh he essentially gave a
non-answer as to whether he would save
it or not but uh you know as with
basically all subjects I would believe
literally anything when it comes to
Donald Trump okay well I want to talk
about what's going to happen under his
administration with antitrust and then
some Cutting Edge technology that we
might see next year so why don't we do
that right after this
and we're back here on big technology
podcast we're predicting what's going to
happen this year happy New Year
everybody it's 2025 can you believe it
we're here with Casey Newton of
platformer and the hard Fork podcast
which you can find in your app of choice
let's talk about antitrust everyone's
favorite topic you know I can already
see like sort of like the listener
statistics start dropping off here
because it tends to be like the biggest
snooze but I do think that um everybody
should hang on for a moment because we
might actually see some really
interesting changes in the coming year
especially with the new Administration
let's just start with Acquisitions I
sort of think that that's going to be
the thing that we see the difference
most prominently on most quickly because
we're going to have a new head of the
FTC and all of the Acquisitions that
might have been uh prevented over the
past four years might start to get going
so is that do you think what do you
think about that and do you think that's
going to be the primary difference
between Trump and Biden on Tech
hard to say you know this uh Andrew
Ferguson character says a lot of the
same things that uh Trump's other agency
appointees do about tech um so it's a
lot of like I will end the censorship of
conservatives you know and we will uh
yeah that that sort of thing and um
there's even been some Buzz that Biden's
like folks were actually pretty happy
with The Pick of Andrew Ferguson because
they felt like he was mad at Google and
apple too and was not immediately going
to just end every antitrust
investigation into them so I think there
is a world where things look weirdly
similar under um under Trump 2.0 as they
did under Biden of course don't forget
that the Google Anti trust lawsuit or at
least one of them was filed under Trump
so I do think that there's like going to
be some continuity there um and you know
my my expectation would be that if like
Trump is happy with Google or meta Apple
for whatever reason then maybe he will
allow an acquisition that like Lena Khan
would not um and if he's not he won't
allow the acquisition and so you'll just
see a lot of like you know sucking up
and effectively open corruption among
the companies you know who are already
donating millions of dollars to his
inauguration um in the hopes that they
will be allowed to make those
Acquisitions but I can see another world
where he's just kind of like mad at them
or decides that he doesn't want to do
them a favor and he will deny them the
chance to make those Acquisitions um but
will allow Acquisitions for stuff
outside of the tech sector so you know
two grocery chains want to get together
or two wireless carriers want to get
together whatever like maybe he'll just
sort of give those a pass so that's kind
of what I'm looking for and we haven't
talked about Amazon yet and I wonder if
you think Amazon is going to be happy or
upset with this new Administration I
I'll tell you two different ways that
things could go and I'm curious what you
think one is that their um the
competition that they have from xien and
timu I'm sure at some point is going to
be exam examined we know the dimin DI
Minimus threshold which allows these uh
these e-commerce companies from China to
ship things under I think $6 or $800
without tax like that's probably going
to be closed but do they you know
potentially get banned do they have
higher taxes put on them um that could
be a benefit to Amazon the other side of
it is that tariffs are really not going
to benefit the company that's trying to
sell you the stuff at the lowest cost so
where do you think Amazon fits in here I
don't know you Amazon more closely than
I do like everything that you've
described is very interesting but like I
don't know what's going to happen to all
of it I wish I had a better answer for
you my you know my my my basic thought
is always like whatever happens Amazon
will be fine people love Amazon they
love their Amazon Prime there's very
little that really it could happen at
Amazon that would lead you know most
people to cancel their Amazon Prime so
you know if tariffs happen prices will
go up and you know maybe that creates
some opportunity for Amazon if you know
the situation that you described among
you know timu and Shen happens but I
just kind of don't know what do you
think is going to
happen I think that timu and Shen are
going to face some action whether it is
those higher taxes and I would not be or
or a ban and I would not be surprised by
a ban um so to me I think Amazon will be
thrilled at that they've like kind of
stumbled trying to compete with them I
think we had some Black Friday
statistics that we cited on the show
this year which is that those two
retailers timu and shien made up about
50% of gen Z's Black Friday purchasing
and uh so that is you know if you think
if I'm at Amazon and I'm doing long-term
threat planning uh that's that's front
and center and yeah I might send Bezos
uh who you know pulled the kamla Harris
endorsement from The Washington Post
into the White House and be like you
know Mr President there's something you
need to know about uh what China is
doing to take over our our retailers our
American retailers and um you ought to
take some action and that could be
successful yeah maybe it could all right
let's it be really interesting to see
like Jeff bz's like legitimately become
friends with Donald Trump like stranger
things have happened oh I think it's
going to happen especially the way that
he spoke about him at the dealbook
conference it was like oh it could
happen all right I want I want to get
into experimental technology before we
head out I love talking about the
experimental technology that we're going
to see uh over the next year so let's
just hit a couple of them the
breakthroughs in Quantum Computing or
the I think 2024 was the first year
where they actually caught my attention
I want to talk about them more in the
show next next year I don't fully know
how to because I'm still trying to wrap
my head around the technology I'll be
forthcoming about that but it seems like
there's momentum around Quantum uh going
into this year that there hasn't been in
the past what do you think about that
Casey I think there's some you know um I
recently interviewed Julian Kelly who
leads the quantum uh Hardware division
at Google about uh some recent advances
they've made they have a new Quantum
chip Quantum Computing is just very
like technically difficult to do because
uh you have to keep these chips at close
to absolute zero and so there're these
like very strange devices that are
enormous by the standards of other
computers and essentially have like
enormous refrigerators attached to them
and they're also just kind of at this um
kind of like early more scientific stage
of development where we had a proof of
concept in 2024 where this uh Google
computer was able to solve a very very
difficult math problem and it was like
very technically impressive but it was
also years removed from being able to
have a more practical application so the
sense that I'm getting from Google is
like progress is being made here and it
is exciting and fun to consider some of
the
applications but don't expect too much
to happen in
2025 okay and how about self-driving
speaking of Google projects I mean in
2024
the field of self-driving was I don't
want to say seed to Google because
Tesla's still in the game but um I mean
weo really cleared a lot of the
competition out we know at the end of
the year Cruz was disassembled at GM do
you think that this technology continues
to Pace I mean I do think 2024 was a
watershed year for this and it to the
point where it's like almost becoming
regular to see these in some cities in
the United States what do you think
about in terms of this technology and
expansion potential in 2025 I think it's
huge I think like wio is the best
consumer technology experience that most
people have not had I think that when
you get inside a weo you will understand
what is going to happen as AI improves
in a visceral way that you will not
understand until you have been in a
self-driving car and the good news is
that more people are going to have this
experience in 2025 so weo is expanding
to Atlanta and Austin it's also going to
be in Miami in 2025 it recently expanded
to La um and so I just think you're
going to see more and more people uh
frankly just enjoying way I've talked to
so many people who after they take AO
they say if I if this was available in
my town I would never take another Uber
like if I could take this everywhere I
would never take another Uber there's
just something about the experience that
is really I mean there's like the
there's the technical aspect of it
um you know there's the fact that it
drives better than a lot of humans uh
there's the fact that it doesn't ask you
about your politics at 430 a.m. on your
way to the airport right so these things
just have a lot of uh benefits um and I
think in 2025 people are going to start
uh testing that for the first time yeah
I'm really excited about the technology
as listeners know and you're right it's
the you get in and you definitely don't
want to take an Uber again the breaking
is amazing that's what I think is the
number one thing is just the breaking is
so smooth and yeah you could do whatever
you want in there within reason I mean
they're watching with video camera
people so be be respectful but uh we
turned the the I mean I think the lights
are already off we turn the lights off
and we put on uh some EDM at full blast
and held a dance party in one of them
and you can do that I mean I feel bad
for the safety employees that were like
please put your seat belt on I was like
not now we're having a party uh but but
it is amazing yeah wow your you're use
lose your wh privileges Alex yeah well I
mean I I living in New York
I uh I doubt they're going to be here
within the next couple years but maybe
five years I don't know it's a tough
City to drive
in it is very tough City yeah no it's
like I until they're in New York like I
don't know I feel bad for people who
live in New York and like don't have
access to weo because I really do think
that it just like it it it's it makes it
harder for you to understand the future
I mean I I really I eagerly anticipate
New Yorkers reaction to self-driving
cars hitting the streets uh I some
people will love it but some people they
will be spray painted every day I
guarantee you and uh we'll definitely
see some videos of people crossing the
street looking at the wh Mo and being
like hey I'm walking to you so that's my
2025
prediction I like it all right one last
one for me I think 2025 is going to be
the year of the brain computer interface
I think we could end up seeing dozens of
neuralink patients in
2025 and I think when people start to
see what this technology can do they
will be similarly Blown Away by the
technological Miracle of course nurlink
isn't the only one doing it uh but
they're the loudest
so yeah um I had a chance to interview
Nolan this year the first uh neuralink
patient and was so inspired by his story
and how his life had changed um after
he' gotten the neuralink um you know
calling 2025 the year of neuralink feels
bold I think it's going to take more
than dozens of patients to like really
get people's attention and you know I do
worry about the you know the the
longterm for some of these patients you
know even when we were talking in Nolan
some of the sensors um inside the
neurolink had sort of already gone dark
so I want to kind of see how durable and
reliable those things turn out to be
before I declare the year of neuralink
okay all right what am I missing any any
other big predictions you have for the
coming year do you think somebody's
going to buy
snap oh that is interesting uh who do
you think the candidate would be I don't
know I I really have no idea I mean the
the one that people always bring up is
Apple people been sort of saying this
for years like these companies just seem
very like uh spiritually aligned and
snap's business isn't very good apple
could sort of immediately put their uh
sort of AR Tech into practice and maybe
Advance their uh you know AR Hardware uh
project by a few years I think the
challenge is just it's really hard to
imagine Tim Cook wanting to run a social
network there's so many issues on
Snapchat related to child safety that I
think he probably just doesn't want to
deal with um but like I don't know like
Snap is just like not been a very
profitable company for a long time now
they've gone through many many rounds of
layoffs uh I I just kind of wonder if
2025 is the year where Evans Spiegel
says yeah I gotta got to do something
drastic so what if as I that's a great
great Theory uh what if Apple acquires
snap it's worth 18 to 19 bli ion today
so let's say give a small premium 25
billion um bring Evan in house put him
in charge of products and then spin off
the rest of snap would that be worth it
to Apple you know I mean it's an
interesting question like that to me
feels like something Apple would be more
interested in like that deal feels
complicated and I'm I'm Wonder like how
Evan would feel about like spinning out
that actual core messaging business um
but like I do think that the hardware is
what Apple would want out of that equip
so oh interesting yeah that I mean that
and Evan would be a great deal for them
they're what three trillion so yeah just
20 nothing to them and since they saved
all that money by not buying pelaton uh
they'd have enough for Snapchat yeah
does pelaton survive
2025 I don't know man it kind of feels
like the pelaton moment came and went I
think people just realize they actually
like going to the gym you know like
there was that pandemic moment where
people like oh this is so cool I can
stay fit and I don't have to leave my
house
and then as soon as people can leave
their house they're like oh yeah I just
want to do that so they keep like
rolling out and they apparently have
some new like strength training product
or something there's you know talented
people there great product experience
like it's sad to me that they couldn't
figure out a business cuz like they got
so many things right you know and it
just like kind of wound up not mattering
because it just turned out to be a fad
yeah it is astonishing to me because the
bike cost a couple thousand the
subscription is like what 15 to 30 a
month yeah so the trainers do one one uh
session and you could get 2,000 people
in there but I think you're right uh
people really underrated the value of
being in person uh when we were not in
person and now they crave it so goodbye
pelaton goodbye pelaton I enjoyed it I
had the subscription during the pandemic
I threw it on some Chinese bike and uh
was able to bike my way through the
first lockdown and then that became a
coat hanger and I think that really is
the story of pelaton yeah I I think that
you're unfortunately right about that
all right Casey Newton I'm Wishing you
happy holidays retroactively and a Happy
New Year to you today as we kick off
2025 thanks for coming on thank you so
much I can't imagine a better way to um
sort of get rid of my New Year's
hangover than come back on your show uh
Alex so thank you and happy New Year to
you happy New Year all right uh folks
you can check out Casey Newton's
platformer platformer.
netnews news sorry let me do that again
edit it or not edit it and leave it on
uh folks you can check out Casey
Newton's platformer at platformer. news
I I don't know I get it in my email
inbox yeah check out big technology at
Big technology.
whatever.com what I should get do
whatever that would be great get do
whatever and the hard Fork podcast and
your podcast app of choice thank you
everybody for listening and we'll see
you next time on big technology podcast