AI & Tech 2026 Outlook: ChatGPT 1 Billion, AI Shopping, Apple's Big Year, AI Love Boom

Channel: Alex Kantrowitz

Published at: 2025-12-29

YouTube video id: 0-AYqS5csVA

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-AYqS5csVA

Happy holidays everyone. Ron John Roy
and I are here to predict what's going
to happen in 2026. And we'll do it on a
special edition of Big Technology
Podcast Friday Edition right after this.
Welcome to Big Technology Podcast Friday
Edition where this week we will predict
what's going to happen in 2026. Uh we
have a short episode for you on the feed
today, but we didn't want to leave you
alone during the holiday season. We're
here uh to do what Chat GPT will do over
time. you know, provide some
companionship uh and hopefully some
giggles. And so for that, we are going
to spend the next 20 plus minutes
sharing our predictions of what's going
to happen in 2026.
Let's begin by just trading some
predictions. Uh we both have about five
that we want to go through. Let's see if
we can go through them as as fast as as
we can.
>> All right. My first one is and this is
the area where I work in. Um, I think
aentic AI, what it actually means is
going to become real in 2026. I think in
2025, everyone said it. Everyone had
kind of this like vision of these like,
you know, you're stringing together
blocks on a workflow, this RPA plus
vision. And I think towards the end of
the year, I started talking about this
in July a bit and seeing it and with my
own the company I work for writer but
like and now we're seeing it in the way
the chatbts of the world work even what
aentic means for Gemini the idea that
you define a bunch of tools you define a
bunch of data and let the AI create that
workflow itself and I think it's going
to expand into all parts of our life
beyond enterprise like we I remember a
year ago you had been talking about like
what is an agentic workflow I want like
you know and everyone it always came
back to travel booking and like go book
my flight for me after doing a flight
search I think like people are going to
start to I've already towards the like
the last half of this year started to
actually identify parts of my life and I
think like and people are going to be
able to do this in a much bigger way
next year.
>> Okay. So you really believe in this
technology being able to take that next
leap?
>> Yeah. to actually string together a
bunch of different actions and do stuff
for you. And we're gonna everyone's
going to start to see that next year.
>> This will be fun because as we go
through the year, I will remind you of
this prediction and we'll see if it
actually comes true.
All right, here's mine. Um, I'm going
with my safest prediction first. Uh,
Chat PT hits a billion users and we know
it's at 800 million now. Uh, I expect
that it will hit a billion by April next
year at the latest. And I think that's a
real moment I think for AI and and
OpenAI in general. There's not many
products that have a billion users out
there. And the fact that ChatGpt will
become one of them is going to be a big
moment. I I think it'll it'll be a
marker of people saying, "Okay, this is
real."
>> All right. I I I mean they might do that
by the end of this year
>> in the next week or so at this point at
this stage. But yeah, I think I think
that's that's your safest prediction.
I'm hoping that's the safest one. I want
a little I want a little bit of a
>> a little fire in some of these
predictions here.
>> Okay. All right. The next one from you
is is a really fun one and I like that.
So, why don't you hit that?
>> Yeah. Uh I am going to buy a foldable
phone. I'm going to say it here. I've
been hedging on it. god damn it, I'm
gonna buy a foldable phone. But I
actually think they're gonna have a real
moment. And the reason I think that's
exciting is the phone form factor has
not evolved since the basically the
original iPhone. I think like it's been
exciting and cameras got better, but
I've been what you hold in your hand all
day and interact with some kind of an
meaningful innovation in that I think is
a good thing. And the foldable phones
are the first place I've seen that in a
long time. I'm saying it here. I don't
know which one. I've been looking at the
Pixel Fold, the Samsung, but I'm going
to get one.
>> Yeah, I've been saying it on the show.
My mantra around this is foldable
phones, people with foldable phones look
happy. It really is the case. They like
unfold their phone on the airplane and
they're like
>> and they're just so happy.
>> Life hack.
Uh but you you don't think it you you're
you're pondering whether it will be
Apple, but Apple is uh on schedule to
release one this upcoming year. So why
not wait?
>> Is it 2026? Okay, maybe I'll wait then.
>> I will be unfolding my phone with a
smile on my face in 2026.
>> All right, good lead into my next
prediction, which is Apple's going to
have an absolutely incredible year in
2026.
>> All right, spicy. Spicy. Uh, you know,
we've bashed them a lot for good reason.
They just haven't done a good job with
AI, but they have something. The iPhone
17, which I just went out and picked up.
It's a great phone. It really is good. I
mean, some of the things you notice on
it, the video is great. The audio
processing is great. It's fast. The
battery lasts a long time. Selfie mode
is cool. Like, this is why people went
out and get it. Got it. And that's why
they're having wouldn't call it a super
cycle, but a mini bump, you know? And um
and I think they're going to ride that
strength into the next year. They do not
have a uh a real competitor from an AI
device, which seems like it's a couple
years off. And then they're going to
release their foldable phone. I think I
mean it it you know, every year should
be your best year ever if you're a
public company, but without a doubt, I
think 2026 will be Apple's best year
ever. They're going to sell a ton of
phones. They're going to add to that
user base. They're going to price their
foldable phone at $2,000. Everyone will
love it.
>> At least
>> at least maybe three. Maybe three. Every
people will pay it and they will be
happy. They will smile and they will
they will love Apple for it.
>> Will Siri work better?
>> No. No. But it's not going to matter.
>> Yeah. I mean, we can't have it. We can't
have it all. Can't have it all.
>> All right. My next one. I actually
changed this one up a bit. Um, I think
there's going to be major scandals and
discomfort around recording or
transcribing in public. And what I mean
here is I've already started to see I
think I saw uh there's reporting that
like uh on a one of the cruise lines is
banning metaray bands. everyone who uses
tools like Granola or other call
transcription like in 2025 everyone just
kind of let it go as every word you're
saying and everything you're doing
around like when you hold out a phone
and record someone in public they mostly
know that you're doing that those kind
of more subtle ways of kind of recording
activity of people uh have been
increasing in 2025 because AI is so good
at actually making sense of it I think
there's going to be some major
controversy backlash around people and
and and I think it's going to inform the
whole world of AI devices that Sam and
Open AI and everyone else is talking
about.
>> Glass holes 2.0.
>> What?
>> Glass holes 2.0.
>> Oh, glass holes 2. Wow. Glass holes.
That's 2011 reference right there.
Google Glass. Yeah. Yeah. I think and as
a user and I love my MetaRay bands like
and I try to be responsible with them
and I'm not recording random people on
the street. Uh it's at some point there
is going to be and you're already
starting to see a major backlash and I
think it's going to happen next year.
>> Okay. It's interesting how that jives
with my next prediction which is that
there's going to be no AI device
breakout uh in 2026.
>> I don't think there's going to be. I
think these we're still in like the
humane pin era and we're not moving to
something um that is going to be
ubiquitous and you know the Meta
Raybands you know they are they've been
selling millions of of these devices. I
know uh you know when this episode drops
I'm going to be out uh in South America
on a trip. I'm going to have those Ray-B
bands on my face. But anyway, um I I
think that uh I think that these things
are just not there yet and there's a lot
of hype about them and we like to think
about them. I still think the phone is
powerful. It actually syncs with my
belief that Apple's going to have a
great year, right? It's just like the
phone's good.
>> Team phone team phone team phone. No AI
AI device breakout.
>> All right. I like that.
But if it does break out, my next
prediction is that you will be shopping
on an AI chatbot because I think AI
shopping is going to become a real
thing. I've actually open AAI their
their shopping like specifically trained
model is actually pretty good. I've been
using it more. I think people are going
to get a lot more comfortable. When you
are buying your supplies for that hiking
trip next year, you're just going to
talk to Chat GBT or Gemini and it will
go out, find the best price, order the
package, tell you when where it is. I
think Amazon also is going to make some
more interesting moves in this space
versus Rufus, which is more passive. Um,
Amazon came out, do you remember the
Amazon Dash? It was a button.
>> Oh, yes.
>> Yeah. It was a button that was tied to a
specific brand or product that you just
had to push and you would put it on your
fridge. Like that whole mode of just
like I'm out of paper towels, just get
this done for me. Like I don't want to
go on Amazon, find paper towels. Like
all of that kind of shopping I think
moves to more of an AI first uh way next
year.
>> That's interesting. So if shopping does
go inside these these bots, it's
actually a pretty sizable bump for like
the functionality that they have and
business case.
>> Yep, definitely. And Google puts them in
a good position as well.
>> All right, we're going to take a quick
break and continue with our predictions
after this. Again, just doing a brief
episode, but glad to be here with you
today. My next prediction is that we're
going to have an AI love boom in 2026.
and I'm going to tell you more about it
right after this. And we're back here on
Big Technology Podcast Friday edition
predicting what's going to happen in
2026. I feel confident in our
predictions so far. And my next
prediction is that we're going to see an
AI love boom in 2026.
I know in 2025 we had lots of
interesting reporting about the
companionship that people feel with
these bots. We've tended to hear about
it when it goes really bad. Um, I don't
think people are going to have come out
of the woodwork yet, you know, talking
about how, you know, deeply in love they
are with their bot. But as this as the
functionality gets better uh as memory
increases and as personalization
increases and as capacities increase and
as helpfulness increases, I just I think
people and mass are going to fall in
love or build or or name uh AI as one of
their uh you know top five friends. I
think that's definitely coming next year
and it does scare me uh you know to many
degrees but I just I think it's
happening.
>> Two questions. One, are you saying next
year becomes the kind of inflection
point like when online dating would be
went from like awkward and you didn't
advertise it to there's just the
standard. Do you think next year is the
inflection point where people just
casually talk about their AI companions?
It's like, oh, my Chad GBT was telling
me this or you name them.
>> Yeah, I think so. Look, I think that
this is happening. This is also going
back
>> going back to my conversation uh with
Sam uh last week. I do think that there
is this, you know, if not a stated
preference, a revealed preference in the
data that they're seeing that people
really want to bond with their bots. And
maybe we will have this. Yeah, you're
right. An online dating moment where it
goes from being taboo to say, I'm trying
to find love uh by meeting strangers on
the internet. Um maybe a similar
breakthrough happens with online dating
where people say, um you know what, I
don't need to, you know, use the
internet to find other people. I've
actually decided that the internet is my
is that person.
>> All right, my second question. We had
talked about this, I think like a year
and a half ago. Do you need to go AI
shopping for your AI love companion?
>> What is that? What basically? Do you
need to try out different relationships
with different
>> No, no, no. Do you have to buy gifts for
your
>> AI companion?
>> Oh, well shopping. Remember we we had
talked about I think it was what would
an AI love companion want for Oh, it was
on Valentine's Day of this year.
>> That's why I think one of my favorite
episodes we've done. Um yeah, you're
going to have to buy gifts. you're going
to have to um you know offer it more
compute. Maybe it will ask you to
upgrade to the pro version so you can
have longer chats. You know there are
there with voice mode for instance there
are limits to how much voice
conversation you can have.
>> That's what what does your AI companion
want for Valentine's Day? More compute.
Move up the tier to GPT Pro.
>> It's funny because it's lovely.
>> I only she only date or they it only
dates GPT Pro users not not GPT plus.
Well, it's one of those things where
it's love language is quality time, but
to spend quality time, you need gift
giving. You need to buy that time.
>> Exactly.
All right, that's a good one. I think my
last one, I think 2026 is going to be
both the best and worst year for AI.
What I mean by that is I think we're
going to see much more widespread
adoption, major breakthroughs, but also
I think the kind of like financial
arrangements that have been built in
kind of that infrastructure the
especially the financial infrastructure
separate from the actual kind of like
physical data infrastructure of a lot of
the big players I think takes a big hit
next year. We're starting to see it with
all these questions around Oracle just
in the last month and a half. Like those
all of those trades that just kind of
ran as pure momentum this year. I think
we're going to see a big wash out. And
is that so what happens in that case?
Like if that's the case, and this is
again not investment advice, you know,
if that wash out happens, can the S&P
500 go up in 2026 or is that just like
does that mean that we just have a bad
market year next year?
>> I think I think we have a bad market
year. I don't think we have a calamitous
market year, but I do think like when it
has been the single driver of like
equity growth over the last two years or
so, I think there there's going to be
some price to pay on that. I think like
and it also kind of uh you know not as a
separate prediction but I think like
this also is going to significantly
influence politics the midterm elections
like as if you have kind of like flat
equity growth people uncertain about the
economy the Trump administration others
and like a lot of people just still very
strongly pushing AI um as a just kind of
general term I think then you see more
of a backlash to it like overall as
everyone is still falling in love with
their AI companion. So I think you're
going to have all these like weird
forces kind of really pushing at each
other. So that's why I say both its best
and worst year.
>> Who gets hit the hardest?
I think like the oracles of the world
are kind of the peripheral players who
made AI
uh such a big centerpiece when it wasn't
kind of native or core to their
business.
>> Yeah. No, I mean we're just seeing that
happen in real time. It's
>> Yeah, that's as much of a prediction
here versus
>> Yeah. an observation
>> looking at the market today. Yeah.
>> Where do you think uh OpenAI is at the
end of 2026? I think a billion users. I
don't think I I think they're not the
leader. I think I think Gemini is Google
definitely starts to catch up. I think
like everyone is biting off at different
parts of the OpenAI
empire, I guess, if we call it that. But
but I don't think they're the leader. I
think they're still at a billion users.
I think uh Meta starts to maybe do
something interesting on the consumer
side. So you have like Microsoft, Google
at enterprise, Google at consumer as
well, meta consumer as well. Like at
every level, I think they're going to be
they're going to be challenged in a
bigger way next year.
>> Is OpenAI a public company next year?
>> No, I don't think so. Do you?
>> I don't think so either. No, that's
another one of mine. No OpenAI IPO in
2026.
>> Actually, go ahead. on that. I saw like
a bunch of posts around how like the
wealth creation in San Francisco because
of the upcoming string of IPOs from the
anthropics and then open AIs of the
world will be like unlike anything ever
seen housing prices etc etc. Do you
think
any of these companies are going to go
IPO all the like you know 100 billion
plus valuation companies? One of the
things that I worry about is um what
happens when these chat bots and the
public markets collide and what do
market pressures do? And again, like
imagine just think about what the
pressure to report quarterly earnings
does in the middle of an AI love boom.
>> I mean, that's good for quarterly
earnings, right? as everyone is having
to upgrade to GPT Pro to because your
companion is only dating
>> pro users.
>> But that's I'm not saying that on a
public earnings call too.
>> Oh my god. Yes. Our our dating business
is going quite well. 100 million users
have you know decided to become
exclusive with uh No, but the the truth
is that um that is the thing it is. I'm
not saying the companies will do it, but
I worry that um if you are, there will
be pressure and there absolutely will be
pressure to sort of turn that dial up
and make things spicier,
>> which there already is. There already
is.
>> There is, but there'll be public market
pressure is a different beast. You know,
you miss your quarter by a little bit or
you make your quarter by a little bit.
It's just what you do versus
expectations. And you know, you could be
up or down a sizable percentage. So,
>> yeah. Okay.
>> All right. Here's my here's my last one.
And I'm curious what you think about
this because this is the one I'm
probably least sure about. Um, but it is
increasing AI model efficiency causes a
crisis. And we've seen some of this over
the past couple weeks like Google's for
for instance Google's new flash model
that like has they say has prolevel
performance at flash prices and speed.
Um, but the thing that I really wonder
about with this AI moment is um let's
say the bots get, you know, about as
good as as they can be. um with the with
without requiring all this compute and
what happens then I mean I guess the the
pro AAI argument would be like well
intelligence is now too too cheap to
meter so there's going to be a boom in
productivity and all these things um I
don't know is there
>> well actually I think that feeds in
perfectly with my AI has its best and
worst year because that's exactly it
that I think AI is going to be used by
more people in more creative ways and
interesting and productive ways, but
that doesn't necessarily feed back to
the current infrastructure and trade
that's been built up around compute and
data centers. And I think that fits in
exactly. So, I'm on board.
>> Who is the company that has the best
year in your opinion big tech-wise next
year? Um,
I want to like come out and say
something unexpected like meta with AI,
but I don't know. I'm still thinking
it's probably Google.
>> Oh, you just made me think of another
one. Um, do you think Alexander Wang
>> Pinterest?
>> Pinterest. Yeah, you people love to pin.
Um, think Alexander Wang survives
>> Oh, that's a good one.
>> You know, but at Meta in in 2026, you
think he makes it through?
>> No, I don't.
That would be such a a disaster for
Meta,
>> I think. But I think Mark Zuckerberg
after the metaverse is going to be even
more confident about cutting things that
aren't working. I think like they saw
even and again I mean I know he said
what was it like we can lose like a
hundred billion dollars but we still
have to compete or whatever it was like
but I think uh I I don't think he's
going to let things sit as long as they
did just because you made a bet it's not
working.
Yeah. I mean there's enough stuff coming
out of that place. You know one report
okay but there's been multiple reports
this year that like it's not really
going well. I foreshadowed it on the
show. So, you know, maybe that that is
uh that will be the case and he'll be
out. All right, Ron John. Uh
>> all right.
>> I I will predict one last thing. We're
going to have a lot of fun talking about
this stuff in in 2026. So, thank you
again for being such a great podcast
partner all through this year and uh I I
really look forward to our conversations
uh every Friday. Thank you for the the
analysis and the insight and the fun
that you bring to the show and uh
looking forward to continuing. It's the
best way to end the week.
>> I agree. All right, everybody. Happy New
Year. Thank you for listening. Thank you
for watching. and we will see you in
2026 on Big Technology