AI Consulting in Practice – NLW, Superintelligent, @AIDailyBrief
Channel: aiDotEngineer
Published at: 2025-12-18
YouTube video id: ehQFj6VmuI8
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehQFj6VmuI8
[music] Today I'm excited to talk uh about something a little bit different. So right now uh there's been the last couple of months have been an interesting time in AI. There's been a sort of surge in the air uh the narrative of an AI bubble. A lot of it driven by dubious studies uh like the MIT report. And so what I wanted to do today is get into not so much the practice of consulting and transforming but what organizations are actually finding value in right now. So for those of you who don't know me, uh there's kind of two contexts I bring to this conversation. The first is as the host of the AI daily brief which is a daily uh news analysis podcast about AI. The second is as the CEO of super intelligent which is an AI planning platform. So the different perspectives are sort of very high level macro thinking about the news that's happening and then a much more kind of ground level view where we're spending a ton of time interviewing executives about what's going on inside their organizations. And what we're going to talk about is sort of one kind of briefly in the first part just the status of enterprise adoption uh as it currently stands. And two, um, and the more interesting part is we've been live with a study in in the market for about a month now collecting self-reported information about ROI around different use cases. And [snorts] this will be the first time uh, this week was the first time I did some analysis on it. And so I'm going to share what people have uh, what people have told us around the first kind of 2500 or so use cases that they've shared. Um, so it should be pretty pretty interesting stuff. talking about kind of enterprise AI adoption first. I'll go through this pretty quickly because it's um pretty well-known stuff. Uh the short of it is enterprises are adopting AI uh in in a growing fashion. Um pretty much everyone is using it at least a little bit. Uh and increasingly they're using it a lot. Uh this year I will need to tell none of you that there is a major inflection around um specifically adoption in the uh coding and software engineering. Right? You saw a huge huge uptick in this. Um there's a lot that's interesting about that from an enterprise perspective because it wasn't just with the software engineering organizations. Other parts of the organization are also now thinking about how they can communicate with code, build things with code. Uh but that's a huge huge theme of this year coming into 2025. One of the big sort of thoughts that many people had was that this would be the year of agents inside the enterprise, right? That big chunks of work would get automated away. And on the one hand, I think it's pretty clear that we didn't see some sort of mass shift towards automation uh at large across different functions in the organization. But when you dig into the numbers, there has been actually pretty significant uh shifts in the patterns of of agent adoption. So this is from KPMG's quarterly pulse survey. And it's a measure of how many enterprises that are a part of their survey, which is all companies over a billion dollars in revenue, have uh actual sort of full production agents in deployment. This isn't pilots, this isn't experiments. This is where they consider uh some agent that's actually doing doing kind of work in a in a full way. And it's jumped from 11% in Q1 of this year to 42% in their most recent study for Q3. So, you actually are seeing pretty meaningful uptake of of agents inside the enterprise. In fact, I would argue based on our conversations that people have that it's moved more quickly through the pilot or experimental phase than people might have thought. um so much so that you're actually seeing now a big shift in the emphasis around kind of the human side of agents and how humans are going to interact with agents and it's involving a shift in upskilling and and uh in enablement work. Um you're seeing a decrease in the sort of resistance to agents as people start to actually dig in with them. You're seeing more experiments like these sandboxes where people can interact with agents. So this is a big theme even if it wasn't necessarily the dominant theme that some thought it might be coming into this year. [snorts] At the same time, it is absolutely the case that many many if not most enterprises are broadly speaking stuck inside sort of pilot and experimental phases. There is a lot of challenge around moving from some of those first exciting experiments to something that's more scaled. Um, so this [snorts] is from McKenzie state of AI study which came out I think a couple weeks ago now and you can see only 7% of the organizations that they talk to claim or sort of see themselves as as fully at scale with with AI and agents. and it's something like 62% are either still experimenting or piloting. Interestingly, big organizations are on in general a little bit ahead in terms of uh the organizations that are scaling as compared to small organizations. This has been a a thing that we've noticed kind of throughout the trajectory of uh of AI um adoption over the last couple of years that you would think that perhaps smaller, more nimble companies uh would be more kind of quick to adopt these things, but in fact, it's often been the opposite with the biggest organizations making the biggest efforts. You can also see from the chart on the bottom that there's very sort of jagged patterns of adoption, right? You're starting to see uh from you know last year if you looked there's very similar kind of rates of experimentation across lots of different departments. You're starting to see some pretty big breakouts now uh with for example you know IT operations kind of jumping out ahead of other functions. I won't spend too much time on this sort of high performer piece, but I think the thing to note because it comes back in and in and some of the stuff that we found with our ROI study is that you are also starting to see a pretty significant bifurcation between leaders and laggers when it comes to AI adoption. And one of the things that tends to distinguish the companies that are leading is that they are just doing more of it and they are thinking more comprehensively and systematically about AI and agent adoption. So they are not just sort of doing spot experiments. They're thinking about their strategy as a whole. They're doing multiple things at once. And importantly, they're not just thinking about sort of the very kind of first tier time savings or productivity types of use cases, they're also thinking about how do we grow revenue, how do we create new capabilities, how do we create new product lines. Overall, it's very clear that despite what is sort of, you know, the the the concerns in the media that spend is going to do nothing but increase on this. Um, to the bottom is the KPMG pulse survey again. And this is a an estimation of the amount of money that these organizations intend to spend on AI over the next 12 months. The beginning of the year was 114, which by the way was up from like 88 in Q4 of last year. It's now up to in their last study 130 million is what they expect to spend uh in the in the year ahead, which obviously the the total magnitude doesn't matter as much as the change. Um you also see the green charts are from Deote and you can see 90% plus of organizations intend to increase their spend uh on AI in the next 12 months and as part of that I think that you're going to see a much more determined conversation around impact and ROI uh which is a particularly thorny topic but interestingly there has been an increase in optimism over the course of this year around the realization of AI. So this is from a different KPMG study, their annual CEO survey, which interviews tons and tons of CEOs. And if you look at the 2024 numbers, 63% of those pled thought that it would take between 3 and 5 years to realize ROI from their AI investments. 20% said 1 to three and 16% said more than five. This year in that same survey, the number that said 1 to 3 years had gone up to 67%. There were now 19% who said 6 months to 1 year. uh and 3 to 5 years was down to just 12%. So huge huge kind of pull forward of expectations of of ROI realization. The challenge is that ROI is really tough. So this is back to the poll survey. 78% of those pled in that in that survey said that they thought that ROI is going to basically become a bigger consideration in the year to come. Uh but also 78% said that traditional impact metrics and measures were having a very hard time keeping up with the with the new reality that we were living in. And this is something that I've heard constantly over and over from CIOS and other people who are in charge of these investments that the the the ways that we have measured impact of previous technologies and just previous initiatives are kind of falling flat with AI. And so that got us thinking about the the the overall need that we have to just have more information. I'm not even talking about good systematic information, just more information around what ROI looks like, what impact looks like, and you know, I've got this great podcast audience. They're super engaged. And so, we just decided, screw it. We're going to ask them, we're just going to ask them to report on what ROI they're finding from their use cases. So, this went up at the very end of October. Uh like I said as of this morning or when I looked last looked we've had over a thousand submissions uh a thousand individual organizations rather submit something like 3500 use cases and um this is uh some some of the first observations that we had around um kind of the first 2500. So the impact categories the way that we divided things was into sort of eight broad categories of impact um which will all I think be very intuitive to you guys. time savings, increased output, improvement in quality, new capabilities, improved decision- making, cost savings, increased revenue, and risk reduction. So, basically, it was trying to think of like kind of a a broad simple heristic for uh for for kind of dividing or subdividing the different the different ways that people are thinking about ROI. And TLDDR is that people are finding uh ROI right now. Um, now again, the caveats are that this is a highly infranchised audience. they're listening to a daily AI podcast and they are voluntarily sharing this. So, I think that, you know, there's there's some caveing there, but you have 44.3% saying that they're seeing modest ROI right now. And then you have another 37.6% seeing high ROI. For the purposes of a lot of these stats, high ROI will be significant plus transformational. Uh only 5% or so are seeing negative ROI. And keep in mind, negative ROI doesn't mean that they think programs are failing. It just means they haven't they've spent more than they've gained uh in terms of how their their perception is. More than that, expectations are absolutely skyhigh. 67% think over the next year they will see uh increased and high growth in their ROI. [snorts] So we have a really optimistic sense from the ground view of where ROI is going to be in AI. Um you even have the teams that are currently experiencing negative ROI. 53% say that they're going to see high growth. So very very optimistic. Um as [snorts] you might imagine, time savings is the default. It's the starting point for so many organizations. It represents about 35% of the use cases. After that, increasing output, quality improvement, basically all those things that you would imagine around productivity are sort of like the dominant categories when it comes to these uh when it comes to these use cases. When it comes to the specifics around time savings, you see a real cluster between 1 and 10 hours, especially right around 5 hours. And I think this is interesting to call out because it's so obvious to all of us who are inside building these things uh whether you are a developer or an entrepreneur or just someone sort of in and around it how the the vast breadth of opportunity that AI represents new capabilities things unimagined yet. It's hard to or it's easy to forget that if you save 5 hours a week or 10 hours a week you're talking about winning back 7 to 10 work weeks a year. Uh and that's very very powerful. And when it comes to a lot of these enterprises, that is a very meaningful thing, even if it's not what they're ultimately in it for. Interestingly though, it's very clear that the story, although it might be uh have a concentration in time savings, is about much more than time savings. So this is the ROI distribution category uh ROI distribution by organization size. And this starts to get really interesting where you can see that there are some differences in where different size organizations are focused. So for example, the organization size between 200 and a,000 people has a higher portion of their use cases concentrated in increasing output. Now we haven't taken the time yet to really figure out exactly what this means or even speculate on on what this means. But I think it's interesting that this is a category of organization that has often reached a certain scale but is still very much striving for more and so seems to be focused more on use cases that expand their capabilities. Same thing with uh when you start to divide things by role you see real kind of variance where for example seuitees and leaders uh are less focused on those time savings use cases and more focused on other things like increased output and uh and new capabilities in general we're finding that sea leaders uh and just sort of seuite and and leaders in general are even more optimistic and excited and seeing transformational impact than people who are in more junior positions. Now, some of this might be sort of selection bias in terms of um what types of use cases you are focused on. If you are in that seuite, you're thinking about things that inherently if they work are more transformational. Uh but it is notable that 17% of uh of the use cases that that people in those leadership positions have submitted uh they say have transformational impact and ROI already. [snorts] Uh I'm going to skip this because there's we don't have time for too much. um you're seeing interestingly uh a concentration um where the smallest organizations are getting more of that transformational benefit early. Um one of the things that I want to do following this study is maybe do a sort of second round where we dig into what this 1 to 50 person uh size really looks like. I actually think that whereas there might be a lot of similarity between a 1000 and a 2,000 person organization, there could be a wild difference between a threeperson, you know, small company and a 40 person company. And so I'd really like to dig into that more. But you are definitely seeing a a lot of impact in those sort of more small nimble moving organizations. Uh as you might expect, coding and uh and software related or uh use cases have a higher ROI than average and a lower negative ROI than average. Um one really interesting kind of you know pulling on a specific category of use cases. Risk reduction is our lowest category in terms of the percentage of use cases that that that was their primary benefit. So when you're filling out the survey, which is by the way at roervey.ai AI if you want to check it out. Uh you basically only get to pick a primary ROI benefit. We didn't want it to be super sort of um we wanted you to pick and and hone in on the thing that was uh seemed most important or most significant. And so only 3.4% have risk reduction as their primary benefit uh in terms of ROI categories. But it is by far those use cases are by far the most likely to have transformational impact as as the as as their outcome. It's at 25%. So a full quarter of those uh have transformational ROI. And interestingly, I was having this conversation with a couple of my friends who work in sort of back office and compliance and risk functions and this has been their experience as well where there are a lot of uh a lot of the the the challenges for those organizations involve sheer volume and quantity uh in ways that that AI can be really helpful for. We also are finding some interesting patterns among organizations. And again, this is where we get into some of the limits of this just being a whoever walks through the door of my listeners. We have a pretty heavy concentration among technology, as you might expect, industries and among professional services, but we still have fairly decent sample sizes for some others. And in both healthcare and manufacturing, the use cases are meaningfully higher impact on average uh than the average across all organizations. Um, which I think is uh it was kind of worthy of further study. Last sort of part of this as I wrap up, you know, a lot of these use cases as you saw have to do with that sort of first tier that most enterprises are going to be in. Uh, increasing the amount of content that you output, increasing the quality of that content, just finding ways to win back, you know, your 5 hours a week. Um but increasingly there are automation and agentic use cases and we are absolutely seeing that where those are the the focus where those use cases mention certain types of automation or they mention agents they wildly outperform in terms of the self-reported ROI from them that's both on automation and it's on agents and I think that that's sort of a a trend towards where we're headed with sort of the next layer of more advanced use cases. The last thing that uh from this sort of first first look of observations is there is clearly benefits and this goes back to to what we saw with that Mackenzie study as well of thinking about AI and agentic transformation in systematic cross-organizational cross-disciplinary types of terms. um effectively pretty much uh directly the more use cases that a person or an organization submitted that the the better they tended to see uh ROI for. Now there's lots of reasons for that but I do think it speaks to that that core idea that once you move beyond kind of your single spot experiments there's a lot of opportunity uh to to sort of grow grow the impact of the organization. So, like I said, that is the the first look. Uh, it's kind of the first twothirds of these uh of these use cases. We'll be open for another week and then we'll have the full study out at the beginning of December. Um, I'm really excited, I think, heading into next year to see how we move from sort of generic conversations about impact uh and our gut senses about impact to a lot more random experiments like this to figure out where the impact really is and uh and where we go next. So, look at that. I'm going to end 27 seconds early and really throw off the time, but appreciate you guys all being here. Uh, and again, if you want to check this out, it's roicervey.ai. [music] [music]